中国和巴西农产品贸易的增长前景分析

基于2002年～2015年相关贸易数据,综合利用显示性比较优势指数、综合贸易互补性指数、竞争优势指数和贸易强度指数,对中国和巴西农产品贸易的互补性、竞争优势及增长前景进行了分析.结果表明:中国和巴西具有出口比较优势的产品品类差异较大;中国农产品出口与巴西农产品进口的互补性较弱,巴西农产品出口与中国农产品进口的互补性较强;中国农产品整体竞争优势弱于巴西,但园艺产品持续保持较强竞争优势,两国农产品出口市场结构具有一定相似性,而各自出口的主要产品则有所不同;两国多类农产品存在紧密的贸易联系,具有进一步增长潜力.     

欧盟农产品进口市场分析

中欧贸易保持着较高的发展速度,欧盟东扩后首次成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。本文通过运用显示比较优势指数和相关数据,对欧盟农产品进口市场进行了实证分析,揭示了欧盟农产品市场的竞争现状和中国农产品出口的比较优势。只有遵循自己的比较优势来发展贸易,发掘潜力并扬长避短,才能够拥有最大的竞争优势,从而获得经济和贸易的不断发展。     

中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易的竞争关系研究——基于出口相似性指数的实证分析

利用出口相似性指数分别从产品和市场两个角度分析了中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易竞争关系的强弱及其变化趋势。结果表明:中国与日本、韩国农产品贸易的产品相似性指数高于市场相似性指数,农产品出口市场结构的巨大差异决定了中国与日本、韩国的农产品贸易关系不是以竞争为主;中国与日本、韩国农业领域内的合作将有利于强化产品差异、缓解农产品竞争程度。     

中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争和贸易互补实证分析

本文运用贸易相对竞争指数、出口相似性指数和贸易互补指数,测算了中国与东盟主要国家农产品的贸易竞争和互补关系。结果显示,中国与东盟在农产品贸易上以竞争为主,且出口相似程度较高;中国农产品比较优势和双方贸易互补性也逐年下降。在此基础上,分析了造成这一现象的原因并提出相应的政策建议。     

浙江农产品的出口竞争优势分析

在全球农业贸易自由化和中国加入WTO的背景下,本文主要运用贸易竞争力指数结合浙江农产品贸易现状对浙江出口农产品作了竞争优势分析,通过分析揭示了我省农产品出口中劳动密集型产品占有明显优势,如水果、茶叶、蚕丝、蔬菜、食用菌以及禽畜、水产品等都有较强竞争力,在此基础上进一步提出了扩大浙江优势农产品的对策建议。     

欧盟农产品进口市场分析

中欧贸易保持着较高的发展速度，欧盟东扩后首次成为中国第一大贸易伙伴。本文通过运用显示比较优势指数和相关数据，对欧盟农产品进口市场进行了实证分析，揭示了欧盟农产品市场的竞争现状和中国农产品出口的比较优势。只有遵循自己的比较优势来发展贸易，发掘潜力并扬长避短，才能够拥有最大的竞争优势，从而获得经济和贸易的不断发展。     

中欧农产品贸易结构与竞争力分析

中国与欧盟的农产品贸易结构具有潜在的竞争性,中国具有比较优势的农产品相对欧盟来说比较少;中国与欧盟在加工农产品存在较强的竞争性,但中国的加工农产品总体上相对于欧盟来说处于弱势。因此,在农产品贸易结构方面,中国需要着重培育重点农产品的竞争优势。     

中国与墨西哥对美商品贸易关系及趋势分析

中国和墨西哥都是美国的重要贸易伙伴。比较中国和墨西哥各自对美国商品贸易结构,对中国优化对美商品贸易结构和加强中墨产业合作具有重要意义。本文介绍了中墨两国对美国商品贸易结构,并以显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争力指数、出口相似度指数及贸易互补性指数,分析了中墨两国对美贸易的互补性和竞争性。研究发现,中墨对美商品出口结构相似度较高,中国在劳动密集型产品上占据绝对竞争优势,但在资源密集型产品上竞争优势远弱于墨西哥。中国需要持续推动产业优化升级,增强资本密集型和技术密集型产品竞争力,促进中墨两国产业链合作。     

中国出口日本农产品的竞争力和互补性研究

本文基于2001—2022年UN Comtrade数据库HS2分位数据，采用显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争力指数、贸易互补指数，分析中国出口日本农产品贸易的竞争力和互补性。研究表明：我国出口日本农产品结构多元化，出口的农产品由初级产品向加工制品转变；中国出口日本农产品贸易中，水产制品、蔬菜制品、其他动物产品以及树胶、树脂及其他植物汁等几大类农产品具有综合优势，编织用植物具有很大的贸易潜力；在中日农产品贸易中，以产品的竞争性为基础，互补性为导向，才更贴合现实的双边贸易。因此，为实现我国农产品出口日本的可持续发展，应注重提升优势农产品科技含量，增强我国农产品国际竞争力；瞄准日本市场需求，优化农产品出口结构，紧抓国际机遇，深化中日农产品贸易合作。     

海峡两岸农产品贸易竞争与互补关系分析

通过出口相似度指数、产业内贸易指数、显示性比较优势指数,测算海峡两岸农产品的贸易竞争与互补关系。研究结果表明:两岸农产品出口结构相似度高,市场相似度低;海峡两岸的农产品产业间互补性总体呈减弱趋势,两岸农产品整体上以产业间互补为主;大陆与台湾的显示性比较优势近年来均低于世界平均水平,两岸的显示性比较优势均呈下滑趋势,因此两岸应扩大ECFA"早收清单"农产品范围。     

中国与欧盟贸易互补性和竞争性的实证研究

运用贸易强度指数和出口相似性指数分别测算1999—2006年间中国与欧盟新老三成员国的贸易互补程度和贸易竞争程度,实证结果表明:中国与欧盟整体的贸易密切程度近年来都在逐步上升,但是与欧盟的贸易还有很大的潜力,其中与欧盟新成员国的贸易潜力大于与欧盟老成员国的贸易潜力;近年来中国与匈牙利、捷克、德国在世界市场上的出口竞争程度越来越激烈,尤其是与德国的出口竞争程度上升得最快。     

中国与欧盟农产品产业内贸易实证分析

基于产业内贸易理论,采用格鲁贝尔—洛伊德指数、布吕哈特边际产业内贸易指数、汤姆&麦克杜威尔水平和垂直产业内贸易指数,本文综合评估了1996年以来中国与欧盟15国农产品产业内贸易水平及结构特征。实证分析结果显示:中国与欧盟整体农产品产业内贸易水平较高,且以技术差异为特征的垂直型产业内贸易为主;双方四大类农产品产业内贸易水平呈上升趋势。     

入世对中国农业发展影响的事后评估——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

基于GTAP模型,设计了相应的模拟方案,事后模拟评估了不入世对中国农业发展带来的影响。结果显示:如果中国当初未加入WTO,中国的国民经济发展水平和福利水平将显著下降,而对世界其他地区的国民经济发展水平和福利水平影响很小;中国大多数农产品的生产、消费和价格都会下降;在分类农产品贸易上,奶类、油料和油脂这些中国具有比较劣势的农产品进口量将大幅度减少,而蔬菜水果和水产品这些中国具有较强国际竞争力的农产品出口量将明显萎缩。     

中国对欧盟出口趋势分析与对策

自我国同欧共体各国建交以来 ,双方经贸合作不断扩大 ,但也存在问题。当今世界产业内贸易盛行 ,我国对欧盟的出口也逐渐表现出这一趋势 ,高新技术产品及高附加值产品的出口将成为中欧贸易的主流。对此 ,文章分析中国对欧盟出口的趋势并提出政策性建议     

中欧贸易隐含碳及政策启示——基于投入产出模型的实证研究

虽然欧盟一直是节能减排的积极倡导者和实践者,但如果欧盟各国通过减少国内生产,增加从中国的进口而实现其减排目标,则其承诺将是毫无意义的。采用投入产出法对中欧贸易隐含碳进行结构分解分析,结果表明:1995—2010年,中国对欧盟净出口隐含碳占到中国总排放量的3.07%～8.41%;技术效应和结构效应都有利于减少碳排放,但是它们却不足以抵消规模效应所导致的碳排放增加。因此,欧盟应对中国的部分碳排放负责,中国则需加大低碳技术的应用,改善生产结构和贸易结构。     

EU-China Focus on Economic and Trade High-level Mechanism

On May 4,2009,the Delegation of the European Commission to China held a conference,on which EU Ambassador Serge Abou addressed concerning EU-China Economic and Trade High-Level Mechanism, the trade and investment between China and EU,and Shanghai Expo.     

European Union Market Access Conditions and Africa's Extensive Margin of Food Trade

This paper examines the impact of two European Union (EU) market access regulations in the food sector presumed to simultaneously affect firms’ decisions to export food products to the EU. We analysed EU pesticide standards on African exports alongside a complementary non‐tariff measure in the form of a minimum entry price regulation, which aims to protect EU growers of certain fruits and vegetables against international competition. Analysis was based on Africa's exports of tomatoes, oranges, and lime and lemon to the EU between 2008 and 2013, using the gravity model of trade. Our results show that EU market access conditions constitute significant barrier to the formation of new trade relation between the EU and Africa. In addition, initiation of trade relationships is contingent not only on market access conditions but also on domestic market constraints in Africa. These results imply that negotiating preferential entry prices duties and the removal of domestic market restraints as well as strengthening domestic capacity to comply with EU standards to enhance continuous market access for the continent could stimulate food trade along the extensive margin.     

Regionalization of Textile Trade: Evidence from the EU,NAFTA, AFTA,and SAPTA

This study examines the integration effects of four regional trading agreements (RTAs) respectively the EU, NAFTA, AFTA, and SAPTA on textile fabric trade from 1990–2005. A modified gravity model for analyzing textile trade was first generated by the fixed-effects method. Regional dummy variables were then used to identify trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from the RTAs. The results indicated that neither trade creation nor trade diversion effects existed in the EU textile trade. Trade creation in terms of imports was identified in NAFTA and SAPTA. There is no indication of shifting textiles trade from the rest of the world to the member countries with the implementation of these two free trade areas (FTAs). On the contrary, trade diversion was recognised some years after AFTA's enactment. It represents a movement towards free trade and is beneficial for the welfare of the world. This article provides empirical evidence on how textiles trade influenced by the formation of RTAs and elimination of quotas on textiles products.     

基于时空特征的我国蔬菜流通及影响因素分析

文章基于我国2001-2012年31个省份的面板数据,以贸易引力理论为框架,运用空间动态面板模型,分析了时空效应下的我国蔬菜区域流通的时空相关性与影响因素,结果发现：蔬菜区域流通具有显著的时空相关性,存在较强的时间动态惯性和空间关联特征,表现在地区自身发展存在连续性;相邻地区存在互补效应;蔬菜输出地区蔬菜生产劳动力、土地、输入地区城镇总人口数以及农产品流通效率对蔬菜区域流通有正向影响,蔬菜输出地区农业生产资料价格指数、蔬菜生产价格指数对蔬菜流通有负向影响。其中,代表需求潜力的城镇人口数对蔬菜流通的影响最大。     

Access of Tunisian Fruits and Vegetables to the EU Market: Potential Impacts of the Revision of the Entry Price System

Agricultural trade flows worldwide continue to be subject to country restrictions of a tariff and non-tariff nature. This is more so in the case of fruits and vegetables in view of their multiplicity. This hinders the exports of these products, which is an important objective sought by the economy of Tunisia. This article simulates the potential consequences of a possible opening up of the European market borders on fruits and vegetables coming from Tunisia and the rest of the world (ROW), following alternative tariff reduction schemes of the entry price mechanism practiced by the EU, particularly in its ad-valorem duty. The analysis uses a partial equilibrium model that takes into consideration economic aspects related to the exports of these products, regardless of their interactions with other agricultural commodities. The model is composed of a series of behavioral equations describing excess demand and supply of fruits and vegetables of all trading partners and attempts to simulate “international” market equilibrium for these commodities. Tomatoes, oranges and peaches were selected for the analysis and three trading blocs were taken into consideration: The European Union, Tunisia and the ROW. Two policy scenarios were examined (a) reduction by one third of the ad-valorem tariff and (b) its total elimination. The results suggest that the impacts would be concentrated in specific periods, varying with products and regions. In addition to possible trade volumes, Tunisia and other countries may also gain in value from exports. A significant increase in the prices of peaches and tomatoes for Tunisia would result from the liberalization process of the EU market. Volumes and prices of EU domestic supplies would however exhibit moderate reductions.