A long-term forecast of market prices for civil and military transport aircraft

The paper briefly examines the procedures to forecast the price of aircraft and helicopters and their results in calculating aircraft deliveries. It formulates a hypothesis about the existence of two world systems of price formation. Some features of price determination in the aircraft market are indicated.     

Methods for forecasting the prices of military goods

A procedure for selecting the model of contract price for military goods and a method for predicting contract prices under effective competition are discussed.     

黑龙江省民营科技企业发展现状及对策研究

近年来,黑龙江省民营科技企业取得了长足的发展,但也存在一些问题.发展黑龙江省民营科技企业的关键是更新观念,引吸高素质人才;建立健全支持民营科技企业发展的政策法律体系;加快民营科技企业产权改造的步伐;解决好民营科技企业融资难的问题.     

Long-term forecasting: Meditations of two pitfall collectors

Summary This article discusses the pitfalls of long-term forecasting. One of the most important is that any model is in fact a subsystem cut from a general societal system. This implies that the distinction between endogenous and exogenous variables is unclear and thus the (sub) model is often unreliable as a tool for forecasting. A second pitfall is that the structure of a model reflects the structure of society. Changing societal structures requires models with changing structures and coefficients. Specific pitfalls are the instability of the functional form of relations, uncertainty about functional forms, variability of parameters. Some attention is paid to the decrease in the risk of wrong forecasts.Professor Pawlowski died, soon after this article was accepted for publication, in Katowice in August 1981.Paper presented at the international Congress of Arts and Sciences of the World University of the World Academy of Art and Science, Harvard, June 1980.     

民用航空地面DVOR/DME导航台防避雷方法研究

DVOR/DME是民用航空重要的导航设备,它可以为飞机提供方位和距离信息,引导飞机的正常飞行。DVOR/DME合装台一般布置在机场终端区或航路航线上,因其对场地周边环境的要求,台址周围极为空旷,在雷雨季节容易受到雷电的侵袭,造成设备的损坏,给飞行安全带来严重影响。文章通过对DVOR/DME导航台防避雷途径的讨论研究,系统地分析和阐述了设备遭受雷击的原因及应对措施,提出了切实可行的防避雷有效方法。     

区域经济发展视角下我国民航区域市场需求分析及发展政策研究

在现代社会中,民航运输业作为交通运输基础产业不仅是城市间物质、资源交换的载体,同时也是各地政府促进区域经济发展和转型升级的重要条件。本文首先基于对航空运输的网络产业特性的分析,揭示航空运输与区域经济的内在关系。其次从区域市场经济发展水平、运输能力等角度,构建民航区域市场需求的指标体系,利用多元统计分析方法和多年统计数据进行实证研究,并对我国各省市民航市场发展水平进行综合评价。根据民航发展的内在机理,提出政府发展和规划民航业的政策建议。     

Targeted poverty investments and economic growth in China

In the mid-1980s, the Chinese government launched its ambitious poor area development policy, which was centered around a series of grant, credit, and Food-for-Work programs. Ironically, for the remainder of the 1980s rural poverty remained at about 90 to 100 million, or approximately 10% of the rural population. The lack of progress cannot necessarily be blamed on ineffective poor area policies, since much of the agricultural economy was mired in a deep recession between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s. By the mid-1990s substantial additional poverty reduction had been achieved. Even in the late-1980s, farmers in many poor counties did better than the national average in terms of income growth. After accounting for the effects of macroeconomic elements, what factors can help explain the differences in performance among poor regions and between poor areas and rich ones? Can part of these differences be accounted for by poor area policies, in general, or by the way local and regional officials allocate their poor area investment funds, in particular?The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of Chinese poor area policy. Specifically, the paper seeks to meet three objectives. First, we want to understand the evolution of poor area policy since the mid-1980s, trying to deduce the true goals of central and regional poor area officials, as well as how these policies have been implemented in the provinces. Next, we want to understand the magnitude and scope of investment into poor areas, and examine if changes in these policies have affected the uses of the investment funds. Finally, we want to determine the effectiveness of the investment of poor area funds, analyzing which types of investments have generated growth, and which ones have not.     

Soil and water conservation investments and rural development in China

This study uses a unique set of annual provincial data on soil and water conservation (SWC) investments during the period 1989–2005 to estimate the impact of such investments on the extent and severity of erosion, the growth rate of agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and rural poverty reduction in China. We find that SWC investments made by local governments have a significant negative impact on the extent of erosion and (in recent years) the severity of erosion, whereas SWC investments made by farm households until recently had a significant negative effect on the severity of erosion. In its turn, the severity of erosion is found to have a significant negative impact on agricultural GDP. Estimation of the impact of the extent of erosion on agricultural GDP provides mixed results. Based on these results, we derive that one RMB invested in SWC by local governments increases agricultural GDP in 2002 with 0.84–1.25 RMB. Finally, we find that agricultural GDP has a significant negative impact on the rural poverty rate. The resulting indirect effect of SWC investment on rural poverty reduction, however, is small compared to other types of public investment. We conclude that (local) government investments in SWC do not only serve environmental goals, but also make a non-negligible contribution to agricultural growth and rural poverty reduction.     

Financial constraints on investments and credit policy in Korea

The Korean financial system has been characterised by government interference and a chronic shortage of funds. Since the 1960s the government has promoted the financing of large, chaebol-affiliated firms. Towards the end of the 1980s, the government changed its focus from large firms to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This study assesses the impact of this change in government policy on the financing constraints of different types of Korean firms. Using data on 198 Korean firms for the period 1991–1997, we estimate several specifications of a dynamic investment model to assess the financing constraints of Korean firms. We find that Korean firms suffered from informational asymmetries and severe financing constraints during this period, and that these imperfections differ across firms. Our findings suggest that the government’s change in focus towards SMEs has been successful in the sense that it has reduced financing constraints for these type of firms. We also find some evidence that firms with concentrated ownership are more financially constrained than firms with dispersed ownership.     

Formation of development investments in the postcrisis period

This article deals with the dynamics of production and procurement of products of domestic investment engineering over the past quarter century, the modern cost aspect of reproduction of the active part of fixed assets, the conditions and major directions of investment development s in the postcrisis period with the active participation of the scientific-technical field.     

Greed and grievance in civil war

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data setof wars during 1960–99. Rebellion may be explained byatypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lackof political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society.Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunitiesfor building a rebel organization. While it is difficult tofind proxies for grievances and opportunities, we find thatpolitical and social variables that are most obviously relatedto grievances have little explanatory power. By contrast, economicvariables, which could proxy some grievances but are perhapsmore obviously related to the viability of rebellion, provideconsiderably more explanatory power.     

中美民航放松价格管制之比较及中国民航管制政策选择

一、中美民航市场结构、公司产权结构、治理结构的差异使相同的放松管制政策在美国民航形成有效竞争,中国民航则强化过度竞争 1978年美国国内生产总值为22192亿美元,民航运输总周转量为431亿吨公里,其中国际运输总周转量为94亿吨公里,分别占世界运输总周转量的38%和全球国际运输总周转量的17%,可见美国航空市场和航空运输能力已经非常巨大.与此极不协调的是当时美国航空市场存在严重的竞争不足,形成了垄断型的市场结构.     

Interdependent investments in attached and movable assets under insecure land rights

The literature concludes that insecure land rights cause farms to make suboptimal capital investment in attached assets, but not in movable assets, implicitly assuming attached and movable assets to be independent. However, the two asset types can be interdependent because the operational efficiency of movable assets, such as farm machinery, typically depends on field conditions, such as land fragmentation. Thus, investment in attached assets may affect investment in movable assets via farm infrastructure. I develop a conceptual model to explain why tenure insecurity may lead a farm to under-invest in attached assets and over-invest in low-efficiency movable assets relative to the secure-land-right scenario. To quantify the economic significance of investment inefficiency, I collect unique survey data on large-scale farms, for which machinery is of particular importance in production, in Southwest China where land tenure remained insecure in 2016. Simulations based on the large-farm survey data suggest that the suboptimal investment occurs given fairly small probabilities of losing some farmland and results in considerable economic losses. The findings have important policy implications regarding land reforms and farm infrastructure in developing economies.     

世界“500强”在深圳的投资

截至1999年底,美国《财富》(FORTUNE)杂志评选的世界500强企业已有54家在深圳投资了合资、合作、独资项目共计87个,投资总额373989万美元。项目平均规模4298.7万美元,投资总额1000万美元以上的项目39个。此外还有30家在深圳设立了代表处。 一、世界“500强”投资深圳的历程 世界500强企业投资深圳可以分为三个阶段。 第一阶段是20世纪80年代。1982年10月,在深圳经济特……     

Enhancing productive capabilities through intra-regional trade and cross-border investments in Southern Africa

Regional integration is an important factor for enabling knowledge flows between economies and enhancing the capacity of firms within the integrated block to benefit from local knowledge spillovers. This study analyses data on economic interactions between Botswana and its technologically more advanced southern neighbour, South Africa, to examine the extent to which knowledge flows facilitated by geographical proximity translate into fostering technological learning and productivity of manufacturing firms. Industry- and firm-level data on bilateral capital goods trade and investments over the period 1991–2013 are used to assess the technological learning of the manufacturing sector in Botswana. This study also applies the Hunt, J, &; Tybout, J (1999. Does Promoting High-Tech Products Spur Development? FEEM Working Paper REG 42. Milan: Fondazione Eni EnricoMattei) technological sophistication framework to analyse the role played by regional trade and investment flows between the economies of South Africa and Botswana in the skills intensification of manufacturing firms. Skills intensity decomposition reveals that Botswana’s manufacturing technical intensity has been positively influenced by the extent of capital goods trade and investment linkages with South African economy.     

Role of high-speed rail on social fixed assets investments in China

ABSTRACT

Rapid development of high-speed rail (HSR) in the past decade has a tremendous boosting effect on China’s economy and society. Under the ‘New normal’, HSR provides an important physical space for the steady expansion of the national economy. This paper uses a panel dataset comprising 285 prefecture-level cities in 2010–2016 to establish an investment measurement model and estimate the impact of HSR on social fixed assets investment. It also uses the difference-in-difference and propensity score matching tests to verify the results. Two important findings arise from the empirical analyses: (1) HSR development significantly stimulates China’s social fixed assets investment, foreign direct investment and real estate investment; and (2) HSR investment does not substitute for investments in other industries, instead, it supplements them. These findings provide strong theoretical and empirical support for China’s long-term HSR development strategy.     

Modeling the location choices of foreign investments in Chinese logistics industry

This paper attempts to identify the location determinants of foreign investment in the Chinese logistics industry. Based on a theoretical model, a nested logit model is introduced and estimated using data on 1775 foreign logistics establishments. We find that large market size attracts foreign investment, but high labor costs act as a deterrent. Good transportation infrastructure and high labor quality are positive factors. Logistics entrants prefer cities with many existing logistics providers, confirming the existence of service agglomeration economies. Capital cities attract more logistics investment, but there is no evidence that special economic zones and open coastal cities have significant advantages in attracting logistics investment.     

广州就业形势分析与预测

作为改革开放较早、经济发展较快的广州市,尽管近两年的业率低于全国的平均水平,就业形势相对稳定,但就业中出现结构性失衡依然存在。未来就业形势如何?本文在分析广州市动就业现状的基础上,就其未来的就业形势做出预测。以期对府的宏观决策、企业的人才政策、劳动者的理性择业