Evaluating the Relative Impact of Fiscal Incentives and Trade Policies on the Returns to Manufacturing in Taiwan, 1955–1995*

In the present paper, an integrated cash flow model is developed to examine the relative impact of tax incentives, financial subsidies, and macroeconomic variables on the profitability of industrial investments. It allows for the variables in the model to interact with each other. An application of the model is carried out for Taiwan, which has implemented a variety of fiscal incentives over the past 40 years. The principal policy conclusion is that trade and macroeconomic policies are much more important than income tax incentives or subsidized finance policies in determining the success of Taiwan's industrialization process. The effects of all of the fiscal incentives are found to be much smaller than those of the trade policies or the fundamental trends in macroeconomic variables such as the movement of the real exchange rate and the real wage rate.     

Narrowing the development divide in ASEAN: the role of policy

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is divided. Most striking is the development divide that separates the newer members (the Cambodia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Myanmar, and Vietnam countries) from the original ones (ASEAN‐6). More rapid growth in the CLV since the 1990s, driven by trade, investment, and other market reforms, has reduced these income differences. While the development divide has narrowed, huge gaps remain. Further narrowing of these gaps will require an increase in the speed and the breadth of policy reforms. A gaping hole in the policy landscape in ASEAN is the failure to address labour mobility adequately. Ongoing demographic transitions will result in greater labour outflow. The current policy void on labour migration not only limits the benefits from trade and investment liberalisation but also increases the cost of structural adjustment. Although rapid growth has resulted in convergence between countries, it has increased polarisation within countries. This can threaten social cohesion, as well as the sustainability of future growth. In order to make growth more inclusive, there is a need to invest more in education and health and to institute land reform. Apart from directly reducing social and asset inequities, such policies will produce a workforce more able to participate in the growth process and adapt to structural change.     

Jobs with different wage determination mechanisms, social efficiency and unemployment

The purpose of this paper is to construct a theoretical framework for the labor market, which is composed of a variety of jobs with different wage determination mechanisms. We identify an equilibrium in which some firms post a wage and others bargain with workers. This paper shows that the proportion of firms adopting wage bargaining in a decentralized equilibrium is below the socially optimal level. We identify policies to increase this proportion and to improve social efficiency. Furthermore, we examine the impact of those policies on unemployment. The results of this study will determine the direction of employment policy on the labor market with various employment styles.     

Economic growth and the rise of protectionism and urban unrest in developing economies

This paper examines how economic growth can affect various political actors and influence trade and labor policies in a developing economy. The paper extends the Findlay-Wellisz (1982) model of endogenous trade policy to include the endogenous determination of an urban-rural wage differential along lines suggestive of the Harris-Todaro (1970) model. Under assumptions normally associated with developing economies, the model shows that growth, stimulated primarily by capital formation, can lead to the rise of protectionism and urban unrest.     

The Paradoxes of Thailand's Pre-crisis Export Performance

Abstract

Starting from the observation that Thailand succeeded in developing its exports in a spectacular way in the decades preceding the 1997 financial crisis, the author points to a number of apparent paradoxes that become apparent when looking at Thai trade policies in detail. For example, Thai trade policy was characterized by an anti-export bias, the causal effect of inward foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports could not clearly be demonstrated, and the effects of discriminatory tariff reductions were apparently very poor. Elements of an explanation are suggested.     

霸权异化与贸易政策的选择

2018年以来美国联合欧盟和日本强力推动“高标准”贸易规则,使其贸易政策呈现出显著的修正主义特征和偏执性。对此,霸权周期理论、国内经济周期变化、权势集团的操控和国际经济体系的特征等分析视角难以就其贸易政策倾向和风格的选择进行有效解释。资本和霸权的关系是影响美国贸易政策的核心因素,其主线是资本向霸权渗透并利用霸权力量寻租,以此为理论基础可以构建霸权异化与贸易政策选择的分析框架。霸权异化包括两个维度,即资本向霸权渗透的结构性或制度性路径和霸权国家的经济集中或分散嵌入国际生产体系的方式。其中,渗透路径影响贸易政策的风格,嵌入方式影响贸易政策的倾向。制度性渗透带来灵活性,而结构性渗透带来偏执性政策。集中式嵌入带来维护现状政策,而分散式嵌入则会刺激修正主义政策。从现实经验看,1986年至今美国对待跨国投资保护规则和“高标准”贸易规则的政策,经历了从灵活地修正到偏执地修正国际经济秩序的转变。霸权异化的分析框架揭示了美国在霸权优势动摇时期贸易政策选择的复杂性,有助于新兴大国有针对性地应对美国贸易政策调整带来的挑战。     

The need for economic policy coordination between Europe,Japan, and the United States: Policy recommendations for the 1990s

Better policy coordination between Europe, Japan, and the United States is urgently needed in order to restore economic growth and to diminish mutual trade imbalances. Using the EC Compact model it is shown how coordinated fiscal policies can contribute to reaching these goals in the 1990s. For Europe, the most plausible fiscal policy option seems to be a combination of lower direct taxes, public spending cuts, and wage moderation; for Japan a more expansionary fiscal policy is feasible. For the United States, however, public spending cuts or tax increases are necessary conditions for better economic performance. In addition, for all three blocks a swap between tax reduction and wage moderation is recommended.     

日本入关后对外贸易政策演变述析

日本入关后在经济贸易发展的过程中,政府强有力的宏观调控发挥了很大的作用,日本政府主导了对外贸易的发展及对外贸易政策的制定和实施。入关后,日本政府充分利用了关贸总协定(GATT)相关条款,一方面通过实施保护贸易政策为国内竞争力较弱的产业提供了充分发展的时间和市场空间;另一方面也实施了贸易和投资逐步自由化的政策。日本入关后到上世纪70年代中期以前实施的初级阶段战略性贸易政策是相当成功的,随后实施的高级阶段战略性贸易政策并没有取得很好地进一步提升日本经济实力的效果。     

全球生产网络、贸易结构与工资差距：来自中国的证据

论文通过建立全球生产网络的中间投入品模型,实证分析中间品贸易对一国技术劳动力和非技术劳动力工资差异的影响。研究发现：加工贸易是中国融入全球生产网络的典型形态;其出口会扩大对技术和非技术劳动力的需求。但技术劳动力的工资上涨幅度要高于非技术劳动力的工资涨幅,从而使相对工资差距扩大。短期内,中间品的进口减少了技术劳动力的需求和就业,但长期来看中间品进口会扩大对技术劳动力的需求,相对工资差距拉大。人力资本投资的供给增长由于未能满足劳动力市场的需求,从而在一定程度上表现为工资差距拉大;但长期来看,人力资本积累机制的完善使得相对工资差距会逐渐缓和。     

出口退税率调整的政策效应探析——基于粤东传统大宗商品出口的研究

文章简述了近年来我国出口退税政策频繁调整的情况,以粤东为例就其对我国传统大宗商品出口的影响进行分析,指出出口退税政策调整的正负效应,提出须有其它相关政策措施的配合调整才能更好地发展我国外贸和调整产业结构的建议。     

从“高储蓄、高投资、低消费”看我国双顺差

本文指出"高储蓄、高投资、低消费"的恶性循环正是国内一系列经济问题的矛盾根源,并最终导致了双顺差的出现。文章进一步对形成这一恶性循环的原因进行了分析,指出解决问题的关键在于改变政府主导的不合理的分配方式,实行以扩大消费需求为导向的经济发展政策。     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

Policy analysis with Melitz-type gravity model: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

Several governments worldwide aim at fostering agricultural productivity growth by providing investment support. However, the policy’s effect on trade for middle- and low-income countries has not been analyzed so far. This paper analyzes the impact of agricultural policies (credit subsidies and tariffs) on agricultural trade flows by modifying a Melitz-type structural gravity model for a small and open economy. According to the theory, trade flows are expected to increase with credit subsidies and decrease with partners’ applied tariff rates. We analyze bilateral agricultural trade flows between Kyrgyzstan and its 69 trading partners from 2007 to 2018 to test our theoretical findings. Applying the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator, we find that credit subsidies effectively increase international trade flows while applied tariffs imposed on agricultural products reduce Kyrgyzstan’s export substantially. These results can be applied to similar economies with publicly available data where small budgetary efforts drive trade expansion.     

经济走势和政策调整的就业效应分析

我国经济增长正处在新一轮经济周期的波峰。随着今后采取从紧货币政策措施,加上人民币持续升值的压力,经济增长和就业受到的冲击不容忽视。在工资高增长阶段,劳动力市场的结构性矛盾会更加突出。在就业优先的原则下,一系列经济政策既要保持经济在高位上平稳运行,又要提高劳动者的素质和技能,并逐步改善劳动者的保护,从而实现充分就业的政策目标。     

Trade policies,macroeconomic adjustment,and manufactured exports: The Latin American experience

Conclusions Changes in trade policy, especially in quantitative import restrictions, have played an important role in the macroeconomic adjustment in all six countries. For long periods, trade policy tightenings and occasional liberalizations were the main instruments of balance-of-payments policy. Most tightenings were preceded by a deterioration in the current account. In several cases tight import restrictions had adverse effects on output and, hence, on investment and growth. Since changes in trade policies, referred to here as episodes, were usually part of a policy package, it is difficult to isolate the effects of the episodes themselves. Sometimes they have been followed by current account improvements and other times by deteriorations.     

Economics versus politics in trade policy

Do economies of scale contribute to our understanding of trade policy or is ideology and inequality sufficient? We develop a unified theoretical framework that encompasses both strategic economic and political variables deemed to be important in explaining trade policy. We predict that an increase in the scale effect leads to restrictive trade policies in labor-abundant countries and liberal trade policies in capital-abundant countries. Using cross-country data on economies of scale, ideology, inequality and various measures of trade barriers we confirm our predictions and establish that a unified framework, which incorporates economies of scale in production, performs better in explaining trade policy than existing political economy models.     

Trade,technology, and the labour market: impacts on wage inequality within countries

This paper focuses on the widening wage inequality between skilled and unskilled workers within countries and discusses whether trade and technology have contributed to this trend. The paper develops an analytical framework for wage inequality that traces the determinants and their relative roles in wage inequality in different stages of the development of trade theory, especially those considering new evidence after 2011. We find that technology plays a key role in the rise of wage inequality in most countries, while trade plays an increasingly crucial and more complex role in recent years. Skill supply institutions, such as education systems supplying skilled labour or unions participating in wage‐setting processes, suppress the rise of wage inequality in some countries. The paper further outlines the mechanisms through which trade affects wage inequality, including offshoring, firm heterogeneity, labour market frictions and global value chains. We find that trade has indirect effects on technology, which further enlarges the wage inequality among skills. The paper also discusses the policy implications of the impacts of trade and technology on wage inequality.     

乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境的利弊分析

中国与乌兹别克斯坦建交以来,两国间贸易额连年增长,乌兹别克斯坦已成为我国在中亚五国中的第三大贸易投资伙伴,但中国投资者因对乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境了解不够充分而导致投资失败的案例举不胜举。深入分析乌兹别克斯坦投资法律环境的利弊将有利于中国投资者审慎决策,为此,本文对乌兹别克斯坦的投资法律环境进行了分析,认为有利方面表现在鸟兹别克斯坦不断完善其税收体系、从法律上保障外国投资者的权益、对内外资提供基本一致的法律保护和向外资提供各种优惠政策等;不利方面表现在对外资准入、企业经营以及外资退出等方面还存在着不同程度的限制。     

Trade in a changed world economy

Since the end of 1973, the world has been going through the downward phase of a long-term business cycle. From past experiences a reduction of the relative weight of international trade and a change in the structure of this trade from manufactures to primary products would be expected. Yet, this is not manifested in the present episode: the relative share of trade has increased during the last decade at the same rate as it had earlier, and no structural change is evident. This should be most probably attributed to the post-war international policy atmosphere. Absence of severely restrictive trade policies, combined with a regime of flexible exchange rates, have prevented the disruption of trade, both directly and indirectly, through the prevention of actual contraction of incomes during this phase.     

中美服务贸易与投资合作及影响研究

当前,全球经济贸易竞争的重点由货物贸易转向服务贸易,作为世界前两大经济体,中国和美国服务贸易与投资关系尤其值得关注。文章分析了服务贸易在中美两国对外贸易中的地位,从规模和行业结构方面阐述了中美两国服务业贸易与投资的现状,及其发展对两国经济的影响,最后提出加强中美服务业贸易与投资的政策建议。