Second language skills and labor market outcomes: Evidence from the handover of Hong Kong

This paper analyzes the effects of second languages skills on labor market outcomes in Hong Kong. Using data from the Hong Kong Population Censuses, we find that both Mandarin and English language skills are linked to improved labor market performance, and the premiums for English are much larger than those for Mandarin. We further show that the sovereignty transfer of Hong Kong from the UK to China in 1997 has strengthened the positive role of Mandarin and English language skills in finding a job in Hong Kong. The political change has also increased the earnings of people with the ability to speak Mandarin. As a comparison, the earnings premium for speaking English has declined in magnitude after the sovereignty transfer. Investigating into the mechanisms, we show that the rising premiums for Mandarin language skills are operated through choices of occupations and industry sectors. Our findings suggest that important political changes can affect the economic returns to language skills in the labor market.     

THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN HONG KONG: ESTABLISHMENT AND READJUSTMENT OF THE LIBERAL WELFARE MODEL

Hong Kong's social security system has followed a “liberal” welfare state regime. The system has undergone changes along with the high economic growth, changes in the labor market, and transformation of the political environment, but has retained the fundamental principle of a social security system led by the private sector. In recent years, Hong Kong has responded to the aging population and growing unemployment by introducing the Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme that requires individuals to join private‐sector pension schemes and by intensifying cooperation with nongovernmental organizations. This indicates the deep‐seated nature of the influence of the liberal regime in Hong Kong.     

江苏高校大学生创业意愿及其影响因素研究——基于有序Logistic模型的实证分析

研究大学生创业意愿的影响因素,有利于了解大学生动态,以创业带动就业,从而缓解大学生就业问题。运用江苏省四个市5所学校的调研数据,利用SPSS22.0软件,基于有序Logistic回归模型,从个人特征、创业认知、创业资源、创业环境、创业动机等5个方面28个解释变量,对大学生创业意愿先后进行单因素与多因素实证分析,发现创业环境满意度与创业意愿负相关,其他四个方面与创业意愿为正相关关系。在此基础上,对提高大学生创业意愿提出对策建议。     

近期香港经济形势分析与预测

2007年香港经济呈现持续增长的态势,保持其在全球竞争的优势地位。《内地与香港关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》(CEPA)的全面实施,香港与中国内地的经贸合作迈上新台阶,双边进出口贸易、相互投资以及工程承包与劳务合作均有不同程度的增长。展望2008年,香港经济发展和转型将面临一系列新的机遇与挑战。     

Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis

This paper investigates the synchronization of Hong Kong's economic growth with mainland China and the US. We identify trends of economic growth based on the permanent income hypothesis. Specifically, we first confirm whether real consumption in Hong Kong and mainland China satisfies the permanent income hypothesis, at least in a weak form. We then identify the permanent and transitory components of income of each economy using a simple state-space model. We use structural vector autoregression models to analyze how permanent and transitory shocks originating from mainland China and the US affect the Hong Kong economy, and how such influences evolve over time. Our main findings suggest that transitory shocks from the US remain a major driving force behind Hong Kong's business cycle fluctuations. On the other hand, permanent shocks from mainland China have a larger impact on Hong Kong's trend growth.     

Does School Quality Matter? Evidence from the Hong Kong Experience

This paper analyses the differential returns to education and to language ability of natives and Chinese immigrants in Hong Kong. The large difference in quality between Hong Kong schools and Chinese schools provides a natural experiment for evaluating the effect of school quality on students' performance in the labor market. We show that the rate of return to schooling is more than three times higher among local-born workers than among Chinese immigrants to Hong Kong. Our analysis also suggests that English language education is one important component of the success of the Hong Kong education system.     

A Eurasian Economic Vision for the Twenty-first Century

Widespread corruption in mainland China adversely affects the overall economy in general and international business in particular. Prior to the establishment of the Independent Commission against Corruption (ICAC) in 1974, corruption was also rampant in Hong Kong. The ICAC effectively cleaned corruption in Hong Kong within a short period of time. Hong Kong's success in this area has prompted the Chinese government to learn from Hong Kong's experience. This article reviews the factors that contributed to Hong Kong's success in fighting corruption and discusses whether China can learn from the Hong Kong experience. From this, we can conclude that, first, Hong Kong's experience demonstrates that a corruption‐prone culture can be changed in a relatively short period of time; second, in order for China to learn from Hong Kong's experience, there must be substantial changes in China's political and economic institutions.     

粤港澳大湾区创业风险投资网络演化及影响因素研究

创业风险投资是科技企业获取权益资本融资的一项重要金融制度安排，在粤港澳大湾区和社会主义先行示范区的国家战略规划下，大力发展创业风险投资能推动粤港澳大湾区国际科创中心建设，进一步发挥金融对实体经济的服务与支持作用。文章基于社会网络分析视角，通过构建大湾区创业风险投资城市联系网络，从投资金额、项目分布、整体网络密度、核心-边缘结构等方面分析大湾区创业风险投资网络的时空演化特征，并探究其影响因素。研究发现：大湾区创业风险投资发展顺应宏观环境的波动，城市群内部形成港深广三大集聚中心，存在显著的空间、阶段分布不均衡的特征；港深广形塑了大湾区创业风险投资的网络关系，网络规模、联系日益加强，并呈现出"东密西疏"的放射状格局；港深广的集聚效应显著，边缘城市之间的投资联系仍较弱；经济环境、创业企业、创投机构、制度因素对大湾区创业风险投资联系有显著影响，其中经济及制度作用强度占主导。     

The effect of index futures trading on volatility: Three markets for Chinese stocks

This paper examines whether the introduction of Chinese stock index futures had an impact on the volatility of the underlying spot market. To this end, we estimate several Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models and compare our findings for mainland China with Chinese index futures traded in Singapore and Hong Kong. Our results indicate that Chinese index futures decrease spot market volatility in all three spot markets considered. In contrast, we do not obtain the same results for the companion index futures markets in Hong Kong and Singapore. China's stock market is relatively young and largely dominated by private retail investors. Nevertheless, our evidence is favorable to the stabilization hypothesis usually confirmed in mature markets.     

Chinese Offshore RMB Currency and Bond Markets： The Role of Hong Kong

This paper discusses the role of Hong Kong in China’s grand scheme to build up the RMB as a global reserve currency.We highlight the economic importance of Hong Kong to China in terms of channeling foreign direct investment into China,some of which,in the future,will be denominated in the RMB.We discuss the development of China’s RMB currency swap and deposit markets in Hong Kong.These offshore markets enable the RMB to trade freely, setting the stage for the RMB to become fully convertible and allowing market forces to play a role in pricing the value of the RMB,and help in the development of the RMB-denominated bond(or dim sum bond)market in Hong Kong.Finally,we present evidence of the phenomenal growth of the dim sum bond market in Hong Kong,which can further enhance and strengthen the use of the RMB outside China.     

CEPA and Pan Pearl River Delta Economic Integration: A Comparative Business Development Perspective

Abstract

The introduction of the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) at the beginning of 2004 and, more recently, CEPA-2 has provided a framework for increased business development in the Pearl River Delta area of China and the Special Administrative Regions of Macau and Hong Kong. In particular, the introduction of CEPA may lead to a significant increase in trade between Hong Kong and the neighbouring Guangdong Province.

This paper examines the economic context into which the CEPA provisions have been implemented from an international perspective and it contains an assessment of relevant business development issues, particularly the case of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in mainland China and Hong Kong. Wider issues for direct investment and the role of Hong Kong are also assessed. Experience with the implementation of free trade and associated market developments in other parts of the world is included but it is suggested that such models are of limited use in assessing economic development in the Pan Pearl River Delta Area. It seems that models derived from local practice will be more effective.     

Why does so much FDI from Hong Kong and Taiwan go to Mainland China?

While the European Union, the US, and Japan (the Triad) supply 90% of global foreign direct investment (FDI) and China is the second largest FDI recipient in the world, most FDI into China did not come from the Triad but from Hong Kong and Taiwan (HKT). Evidence presented in the paper reveals that the unusually large amount of Hong Kong–Taiwan direct investment (HKTDI) cannot be fully appreciated without understanding China's location characteristics and differences between HKTDI and the Triad FDI. Four determinants of the dominant HKTDI in China are identified: China's export-promotion FDI strategy, its large pool of cheap labor, HKT's specific advantages in export-oriented FDI, and their unique links with China (the Chinese connections). Empirical results suggest that HKTDI was primarily motivated by low labor costs while FDI from the Triad was market-oriented. As China's domestic markets become more open to foreign investors, the share of HKTDI may shrink and the importance of FDI from the Triad may rise.     

The China money puzzle: will devaluation of the yuan help or hurt the Hong Kong dollar?

A Chinese yuan devaluation could affect the stability of the Hong Kong dollar. This paper studies two linkages. The first is that trade balance effect is studied through a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The result shows that the net change in Hong Kong's foreign reserve after a yuan devaluation is, in fact, negligible. The second is that psychological effect is studied by a survey of financial market participants. In spite of the small trade balance effect, all respondents believe that a yuan devaluation would lead to a panic selling of Hong Kong assets. Therefore, a yuan devaluation is bad for the Hong Kong dollar primarily through market psychology.     

Output and Productivity Performance of Hong Kong and Singapore's Transport and Communications Sector, 1990 to 2005*

This paper uses the industry of origin approach to analyze value added and labor productivity outcomes arising from progressive liberalization of government and from statutory board control of transport and communications in Singapore. The paper compares these outcomes with those from the market‐orientated, more privatized transport and communications sector in Hong Kong, for the benchmark year 2004 and a review period from 1990 to 2005. The study is among the first to carefully compare labor productivity in specific sectors between the two countries. Although Singapore generally recorded higher levels of labor productivity, there was some catch‐up by Hong Kong in the later part of the review period. There was also substantial variation in labor productivity performance within sectoral branches in the two sectors. The study suggests there is some evidence that the different political–economic structures and policy approaches to deregulation and liberalization played a role in determining productivity performance in the transport and communications sectors in Singapore and Hong Kong. The analysis infers a potential, increasing focus on privatization as the driving force for further liberalization of the transport and communications sector in Singapore.     

Development trajectories: Hong Kong vs. Shanghai

Over the past three decades, Shanghai and Hong Kong, leading cities in China's Yangzi River Delta and Pearl River Delta, respectively, have seen rapid economic development and institutional transformation. Shanghai has experienced a major breakthrough in its export‐driven economy and in industrial upgrading since the opening of the Pudong area in the 1990s. Shanghai has also ramped up its efforts to catch up with Hong Kong and has already become one of the world's foremost manufacturing and export hubs. At the same time, and particularly following the 1997 Asian economic crisis, Hong Kong has redoubled efforts to identify shortcomings in its economic architecture; and has explored plans to transcend its traditional role as a financial hub, to attract entrepreneurial hi‐tech talent, and to overcome inequitable income growth. This paper explores the development trajectories of these two cities and how they depart from the pre‐1978 development models. The paper also examines the extent to which the current trajectories are complementary or in competition.     

Macroeconomic Forecasting in Hong Kong: A Survey

This study reports the results of a survey on how the business firms, government, and academics in Hong Kong prepare their forecasts, what methods they prefer, whether they keep records of forecasting performance, and the usage of their forecasts. The survey questionnaire was sent to fortynine participants and the results showed that subjective techniques are commonly used by Hong Kong firms in various forecasting situations despite the increasing availability of computers that make possible the efficient use of quantitative forecasting techniques. Also, very few firms performed accuracy analysis for their forecasts. The lack of records of forecasting accuracy suggests that business firms in Hong Kong are likely to continue to use a technique that fails to perform.     

香港国际金融中心的比较优势——兼论上海金融中心所面临的挑战和机遇

作为亚太国际金融中心,香港面临来自国际及中国内地金融中心的挑战和竞争。本文探讨了香港金融证券业的个别特定金融机构和专业人才的比较优势。特别是《更紧密经贸关系安排》(CE-PA)增强了香港与内地金融证券市场和客户的接近度,促进了香港金融证券业专业人才的培训和交流、香港中小银行的合并以及证券市场的融资和交易。本文进而提出,一方面,香港需要与中国内地经贸合作而增强其作为国际金融中心的经济实力;另一方面,香港以泛珠三角地区为平台,上海以长江三角地区为平台,可以促进香港与中国内地的金融证券业相互补充和相互帮助,并带动亚太区域金融中心的互动。通过竞争与协调,加强金融监管合作和融通,进而有效地利用有限的经济金融资源。     

香港离岸金融中心的国际地位与竞争力分析

本文基于离岸金融角度,研究香港银行业、股票市场和资产管理业务的国际化经营特点。并以1995-2011年季度数据量化变量之间的长期均衡关系,探讨香港银行业的离岸资产与负债增长特点、股票市场的国际化运作方式,以及资产管理业迅速发展的原因,并用格兰杰因果检验方法量化离岸金融与在岸经济和在岸金融的长期均衡关系。     

TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO CHINA BY HONG KONG'S CROSS‐BORDER GARMENT FIRMS

Hong Kong manufacturers have historically been one of the main sources of foreign direct investment to China, but their contribution to the transfer of technology to the mainland has been questioned due to the generally labor‐ rather than capital‐intensive, low‐value‐adding activities they perform there. Using data from eighty‐four Hong Kong‐based garment manufacturers that have invested directly in mainland China, this paper examines the role of Hong Kong FDI in the transfer of technology to China. Analyses show that Hong Kong garment firms are in fact human‐capital‐intensive and are endowed with valuable managerial technology and, moreover, act as effective channels for the transfer of such technology to mainland China.     

粤港澳经济一体化的实证分析

本文运用HP滤波、迭代的相关分析、Granger因果检验、DAG技术、结构VAR模型、预测误差方差分解等方法分析了粤港澳经济增长和经济周期之间的联系，结果表明，在样本期内：粤港和粤澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性比港澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性弱，而且粤港和粤澳之间经济增长和经济周期的同步性正处于下降时期；粤港澳之间经济增长不存Granger因果联系；只有港澳之间经济波动存在显著的同期因果关系；粤港和粤澳经济波动的相互解释能力是有限的，它们比香港对澳门的解释能力差。