新冠肺炎疫情冲击下农民工就业面临的主要问题及应对策略研究

新冠肺炎疫情对农民工产生较大负面影响,一季度农民工就业将面临巨大冲击,三类农民工就业需高度关注。部分农民工返城复工面临诸多现实困难,农业生产要素和农产品流动性显著降低,返乡务农者面临十分严峻的挑战。农民工全年整体收入减少将成为大概率事件,部分低收入农民工家庭可能陷入生存困境。相关对策建议:推动劳务输出和输入省份之间精准对接,帮助有条件的农民工实现安全、稳定就业。借鉴东西部对口帮扶就业扶贫办法,由专人负责组织农民工外出并送至就业地点。强化有条件地区对农民工就业吸纳。加大新型职业农民培育和支持力度,吸引培育一批新农民,多措并举支持返乡农民工渡过难关。将农民工全面纳入城市社会管理服务对象,重点关注农村“三留守”人员和困难家庭的生活问题。     

城乡居民消费水平的影响因素分析

本文在对影响我国城乡居民消费水平主要因素进行分析的基础上,借助凯恩斯的消费函数表达式,采用1985～2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的时间序列数据和2009年我国城乡居民人均收入与消费的省级面板数据,实证分析了我国居民收入水平对其消费的影响。实证分析结果表明,城乡居民的边际消费倾向都比较接近1,表明城乡居民收入水平对其消费水平有显著的正向影响。实证分析结果也显示,城镇居民自生消费水平明显高于农村居民,表明城乡居民存在明显的收入差距。因此,增加城乡居民收入,特别是增加农村居民收入,缩小城乡居民收入差距对提高我国居民整体消费水平有重要现实意义。     

Health Status and Earnings of Migrant Workers from Rural China

The migration of rural laborers into cities for employment has been one of the main driving forces of China's economic growth over the past three decades. Based on a dataset collected by the Ministry of Agriculture of China from 2003 to 2007, this paper examines the impact of health on the earnings of migrant workers engaging in physically‐intensive work requiring good health. Our findings indicate that a poor health status not only weakens the incentive of rural laborers to participate in the migrant labor force but also significantly reduces their earnings. A migrant worker in poor health only earns 67 percent of what a healthy worker makes. Among all the human capital characteristics and family economic factors, health status is the most influential on earnings for less educated workers. Labor productivity has a greater impact on earnings than the annual number of days that a person works. Ongoing health‐care reforms aimed at the improvement of the health‐care services available to rural laborers are urged to help reduce poverty in rural China.     

Danish agricultural history ofthe 1920s

The aim of the paper is to qualify the meaning of an urban–rural wage gap by taking a household approach to the issue of standard of living, using household surveys for five worker groups in urban or rural Sweden in 1914/1920. The urban–rural gap in terms of total household real earnings is estimated by including all the household income and using controls for household size and composition, deflated by separate urban and rural costs-of-living indices. To further assess the results, levels of household expenditure and the nutritional value of food are compared between the worker groups. The results indicate that the urban–rural earnings gaps were small or moderate, due to the higher cost of living in urban areas and the practice of payments in kind and home production in rural areas. Some differences between urban and rural workers in terms of patterns of consumption and the nutritional value of food consumed can be attributed to differences in earnings, but a substantial part depended on the nature of the working loads, employment terms and housing conditions. These results thus modify the picture usually given in the literature on urban–rural wage gaps and income elasticity of food items.     

身份认同对流动人口家庭在流入地消费的影响

流动人口在城市的社会融合是健康城市化的重要内容，并且其本身也产生众多经济影响。文章利用2014年国家卫计委"流动人口社会融合与心理健康专题调查"的调查数据，分析流动人口不同的本地城市人身份认同对其家庭消费水平、家庭消费结构的影响。由于身份认同受到很多因素影响，具有内生性，因此我们在OLS基准回归之外，采用流动人口"本地话掌握水平"及"流出地土地面积"作为工具变量处理可能的内生性问题。我们也进行了替代变量的稳健性检验以及各种异质性检验。我们发现流动人口不同的身份认同程度对家庭消费水平、家庭消费结构有显著影响：更认同本地城市人身份的流动群体消费更高、恩格尔系数更低。同时，身份认同的消费影响在不同群体间存在一定异质性：这种效应对于年长的流动人口以及农村户籍流动人口更显著，这些异质性发现也符合预期。文章也进行了影响的可能机制检验，发现认可本地人身份的流动人口更倾向于在本地买房、长期工作生活和落户，减少在老家购房和生活的可能。研究结果对认识身份认同经济影响有一定学术价值；同时，文章的政策含义是，促进流动人口本地身份认同可以促进城市消费活力和居民生活质量。     

Do Nutrition and Health Affect Migrant Workers＇ Incomes？ Some Evidence from Beijing,China

Migrant workers have become a major element of the labor force in Chinese cities, making important contributions to the economy while forming a socially disadvantaged group. Existing research on the relationship between the level of nutrition and health and income in China mainly focuses on farmers living in rural areas. Based on a Mincer equation and using a survey in Beijing, this paper examines the relationship between migrant workers＂ nutrition and health levels and their monthly incomes. We find that the nutrition intake and the body mass index have positive effects on income while duration of illness and daily working hours have negative effects. These conclusions imply that the Chinese Government should put more emphasis on improving migrant workers＇ well-being, including offering educational programs on nutrition and health, and enhancing medical insurance and the old-age insurance system.     

Constructing migration: Infrastructure,poverty and development in KwaZulu‐Natal

Migration and population movement are probably the most neglected of the significant dynamics behind rural poverty in South Africa. Little is known about how people move from place to place, and much of what we thought we knew may be incorrect. In KwaZulu‐Natal job search is no longer the single dominating reason given for migration. Instead, infrastructure ties with it for first place today, with land close behind. The first article in this two‐part report notes that as many as two thirds of the province's disadvantaged families have broken away from their communities of origin and moved at least once during their lifetimes. Perhaps three million have migrated in the last fifteen years. A second unexpected finding is the predominance of rural‐to‐rural migration. Three quarters of all moves recorded were rural to rural, with many orientated towards advantaged rural areas around small towns and secondary cities. Results show how streams are channelled towards poverty or opportunity, and argue for a review of prevailing concepts of rural‐urban relations which structure delivery efforts. The second article, to follow later, notes that recorded income levels are now higher in some rural destination areas than in the urban shack communities that accommodate rural‐to‐urban migrants. Results of various studies presented show how access to information affects migration patterns, and the article also explores the role of infrastructure as a determining force in the regional distribution of population and as a factor in people's own bootstrap anti‐poverty efforts.     

Has China run out of surplus labour?

Many recent studies claim that China has reached a Lewisian ‘turning point’ in economic development, signalled by rising wages in urban areas and the exhaustion of rural surplus labour. In this paper we show that despite some evidence of rising nominal urban unskilled wages between 2000 and 2009, there is little in the data to suggest that this wage increase has been caused by unskilled labour shortages. China still has abundant under-employed workers with very low income in the rural sector. We argue that China's unique institutional and policy-induced barriers to migration have both prevented many rural workers from migrating to cities and also reduced the migrants' length of stay. We project that under alternative institutional settings, the migrant stock could easily be doubled from the current 150 million to 300 million by increasing either the average length of migrant stay, or the migrant inflow, or both.     

海南城乡居民消费水平差异性分析和预测

从1985-2018年海南城乡居民收入、消费数据出发,分别建立消费关于收入、消费差距关于收入差距的自回归模型,结果表明农村居民当期消费更易受近期收入和消费水平的影响,具有不稳定性。再利用GM(1,1)模型预测城乡居民收入差距,结合自回归模型,完成未来10年海南城乡消费差距的预测：收入差距和消费差距将呈直线递增趋势,收入差距的增幅高于消费差距增幅。缩小海南城乡居民消费差距的根本途径在于缩小收入差距,应因地制宜,切实提高农民收入水平。     

Why do migrant households consume so little?

Exploring data from the migrant and urban household surveys of the Chinese Household Income Project, this paper dissects the underlying causes of the depressing effect of the hukou system on migrant household consumption to two channels. On one hand, migrants' disentitlement to local urban hukou creates financial insecurity through barriers to employment, social welfare, medical insurance, etc., thereby encouraging precautionary saving. On the other hand, it promotes temporary migration, allows divergence in tastes and values from local urban residents to persist, and incentivizes migrant households to save their transitory income. Factors reflecting these two channels, such as medical and pension insurances, the duration of migration, and local homeownership, are specifically modeled, and they are found to contribute to the discrepancies in consumption between migrant and local urban households, among other factors. In addition, the marginal propensity to consume exhibits heterogeneity across migrant households; it is higher with a longer duration of migration, local homeownership, and self-employment. The lack of these attributes further reinforces the reluctance of migrant households to consume.     

持久收入理论与我国城乡居民消费——基于省际面板数据的检验

本文运用基于持久收入和暂时收入的两种分解方法的省际面板模型检验了持久收入理论的三个假设。结果发现,我国城镇和农村居民消费与其持久收入均显著相关。我国城镇居民消费与其暂时收入显著相关;安徽、黑龙江、吉林、陕西、甘肃、青海、云南和海南等省农村居民的暂时收入的边际消费倾向等于零,而其他省份的不等于零。"λ假说"检验表明,我国城镇和农村居民消费对当期收入都是过度敏感的,导致PIH的局限性。选择误差修正项的绝对值表征不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费的影响,计量结果显示,不确定性和远期的流动性约束对城镇(或农村)居民消费产生了明显的负面影响。农村居民的预防性储蓄动机强度大于城镇居民。     

农民工劳动力供给行为异动与或然走向

从"民工潮"到"民工荒"再到新一轮的"民工荒",农民工劳动力供给行为呈现动态变化过程。劳动力转移和就业的不同时期,包括劳动力供给主体、劳动力供给的区域结构、劳动力供给的代际差异等诸多方面都呈现出不同的特征。农民工劳动力供给行为的动态变化有利于实现产业结构和就业结构的均衡配置;有利于进一步推动生产方式的变革;有利于加快产业转移和产业升级;有利于建立针对不同代农民工群体的回流和畅流机制,全面解决农民工就业问题,拓宽农民工的就业出路。     

省域和省际层面上的收入和消费差距——基于中国省份面板数据展开的唯象研究

采用聚类、统计拟合及复杂网络等方法,对2002-2010各省数据分析发现:人均收入大于20000的省份,城乡收入差距在低水位上扩大;低于20000的省份,差距在高水位上呈现倒U型片段。人均收入越高区域,城乡差距越小。城乡收入差距的轨迹是一有倒U型波段衔接成的向下延展的波。近十年城乡差距在扩大,如今维持在11年左右;省内城乡差距最大和最小年数分别是15和7年,且在地理空间上呈现聚集性;省际最大差距年数是13年,省际城镇和省际乡村最大差距分别是8年和13年;城镇消费率近15年持续走低,乡村消费率呈现倒U型片段,且如今乡村消费率高于城镇。还发现:乡城消费率差越小,城乡收入差距就越小,呈现"若乡村消费率每高于城镇消费率1%,城镇人均收入和乡村人均收入比约扩大20%"的数量关系,而解决城乡差距的政策是提高城镇消费率。省份个数分布图从一谱带较窄的分布到一谱带较宽的分布,接着连续性断裂,演化成分立的离散谱带,即社会出现模块化的阶层。     

The impact of financial development on the income and consumption levels of China’s rural residents

In this paper, we investigate the impact of financial development on rural residents’ income and consumption levels in China. We discover that the development of traditional financial services has little impact on the income and consumption levels of rural residents. In contrast, the development of emerging financial services has a significant positive impact on the income and consumption levels of rural residents. Traditional financial services, as is well known, require collateral and high expected future cash flows from customers, making financial inclusion difficult. Emerging financial services in China are special financial services promoted by financial regulators to support technological innovation, cultural development, environmental protection, and rural development. Our findings suggest that these emerging financial services are effective in increasing the income and consumption levels of rural residents. Interestingly, while emerging financial services that directly target rural development have no significant impact on rural residents' income and consumption, financial support for technological advancement and cultural development appears to be more effective in increasing rural residents' income and consumption.     

Can self-employment activity contribute to ascension to urban citizenship? Evidence from rural-to-urban migrant workers in China

The ascension to urban citizenship and assimilation into urban life for rural to urban migrant workers is a pressing mission during the current process of rapid urbanization in developing China. However, the issue of how self-employed migrants, who account for up to 25 percent of total migrant workers in 2009 (Meng, 2012), acquire urban citizenship remains understudied. Using a unique sample from the 2009 Rural to Urban Migrants in China (RUMiC) survey, this paper explores whether self-employment choice contributes to migrant workers' ascension to urban citizenship and integration, and uncovers the underlying mechanisms. We find that although self-employed migrants are capable of earning a higher income, and improving their living conditions, their tendency to reside permanently in the city is not significantly different from their counterparts of wage workers. We argue that self-employed migrants, who are less covered by urban social securities and are more discriminated against by current urban household registration (Hukou) system, tend to lose faith in ascension to urban citizenship. It implies that a social security system with self-employed migrants being covered as well as an urban Hukou admission system favoring diverse human capital (especially taking into account entrepreneurship) would help accelerate the urbanization process.     

Impact of Childcare and Eldercare on Off‐farm Activities in Rural China

Using individual data collected in rural China and adopting Heckman's two‐step function, we examined the impact of childcare and eldercare on laborers' off‐farm activities. Our study finds that having school‐aged children has a negative impact on rural laborers' migration decisions and a positive impact on their decision to work in the local off‐farm employment market. As grandparents can help to take care of young children, the impact of preschoolers is insignificant. Having elderly family to care for decreases the income earned by female members of the family. Although both men and women are actively engaged in off‐farm employment today in rural China, this study shows that women are still the primary care providers for both children and the elderly. Therefore, reforming public school enrollment and high school/college entrance examination systems so that migrant children can stay with their parents, this will help rural laborers to migrate to cities. The present study also calls for more public services for preschoolers and the elderly in rural China.     

论城市化中农村家庭结构的变化

由于我国的城市化过程中大量农民进入城市务工,农村家庭由主干家庭,即由父母和一对已婚子女组成的祖孙三代同居家庭大量瓦解。本文着重讨论了这种家庭结构变化的现状以及对个人、家庭和社会引起的多重结果,并在此基础上提出了相应对策,对统筹城乡发展、解决农民工相关问题提出意见。     

The urbanization-household gender inequality nexus: Evidence from time allocation in China

Urbanization and accompanying socio-economic change, alter intra-household behaviours including paid and unpaid work patterns. China's rapid urbanization raises important questions about the changing nature of gender asymmetries in the household division of labour. Using 24-hour time module data from the China Family Panel Studies, we investigate time allocation of females and males in matched-couples in urban, rural-urban migrant, and rural households. Our model explicitly incorporates the impact of care of young children on time-use. Distinguishing between care and other housework, overall, we find while traditional gendered time-use patterns persist among rural households, urbanization and migration reduces gender differentials in unpaid work. Both urban and migrant fathers engage in more care work than their rural counterparts. We shed new light on the configurations of paid and unpaid work, leisure and self-care; women's burden of a ‘second shift’ of unpaid work; the role of education and income in eroding gender norms; and the impact of grandparents on time-use.     

山西省居民消费对经济增长影响的实证分析

近年来,山西省城乡居民收入与消费水平不断提高,但消费需求不足成为目前阻碍国民经济发展的一个主要因素。通过对城乡居民消费与经济增长的回归分析,得出居民消费比投资更能拉动经济的增长,提高城乡居民的消费,尤其是拓展农村居民的消费具有重要的意义;通过对居民消费结构的分析,得出消费需求结构决定了经济增长的结构,只有合理的居民消费需求结构才能成为经济水平增长的基础。在此基础上,文章提出扩大居民消费、拉动经济增长的建议。     

政府推动的就近城镇化能够消除工资歧视吗

随着大中城市城镇化空间的逐渐饱和以及农民工回流现象的出现,就近城镇化成为推进我国新型城镇化进程的重要模式。文章基于2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查(CMDS)数据,研究政府推动的就近城镇化对农村劳动力工资收入的影响发现:政府通过征地、户口改革方式推动的就近城镇化并不能够消除工资歧视,实现就近城镇化的农村劳动力在其他条件相同的情况下其工资水平仍然低于城镇本地职工,这一结论在纠正自选择偏差和样本选择偏差后仍然成立。机制分析发现,城镇劳动力市场针对实现就近城镇化的农村劳动力在就业机会方面的歧视与隔离已不明显,同工不同酬成为实现就近城镇化者面临的主要歧视形式,而城乡劳动力之间教育回报率的差异是导致同工不同酬的主要原因。进一步讨论发现,就近城镇化对于农村劳动力参保城镇职工保险具有显著的提升作用,而自我雇佣的就业形式则有助于打破城镇劳动力市场对农村劳动力的收入歧视。文章拓展研究了就近城镇化对农村劳动力工资收入的影响,为政府进一步推进以县域城镇化为主要形式的就近城镇化提供了研究参考。未来应持续推进城乡基本公共服务均等化,进一步缩小城乡教育质量差异,加强农村劳动力"同工同酬"的保护力度,稳步推进农村劳动力的就近城镇化。