Past Successes and New Challenges： China＇s Foreign Trade at a Turning Point

Since 1979, China has recorded a remarkable trade performance, which has been driven by international processing and the offshoring strategies of foreign firms. The diversification of Chinese exports and their technological upgrading have been phenomenal However, there is also inertia, illustrated by the persistent dualism of the trade sector, the unrelenting specialization in downmarket products and the deteriorating terms of trade. These weaknesses have helped its partners to adjust to the rise of this new trade power. In the past decade, China＇s economy has faced the adverse effects o fan export-led growth and the global crisis has revealed its vulnerability. China is now forced to rebalance its economy. This will imply major changes in foreign trade, in favor of ordinary trade and away from processing. In the foreseeable future, China is unlikely to become the driver of international demand but will remain the engine of Asian economic integration.     

Endogenous timing in trade policy games: Should governments use countervailing duties?

Endogenous Timing in Trade Policy Games: Should Governments Use Countervailing Duties? - Trade policy under oligopoly is analysed in two multistage games with endogenous timing of trade policy. At the beginning of the games, the domestic and foreign governments choose whether to set trade policy at stage one or two. It is shown that in the subgame perfect equilibrium of both games, the domestic government will set its tariff (and production subsidy) at stage one and the foreign government its export subsidy at stage two. The domestic country commits not to use a countervailing duty in both games, and both countries are better off than when they set trade policy simultaneously.     

Chinese Renminbi Arrival in the “Tripolar” Global Monetary Regime

Since the financial crisis hit in 2007, the US dollar privilege has not only become “exorbitant” but “extortianate.” Countries such as China are no longer willing to allow the USA to exercise this extortionate behavior. The potential geopolitical implications of a US dollar decline are immense. The USA would lose its privileged seigniorage position and with that the ability to achieve permanently higher returns on foreign assets than the returns paid to foreigners who invest in the USA. The global economy is already close to operating with three regional exchange rate anchors: the US dollar; the euro; and, increasingly, the renminbi. Hence, the transition to a tripolar system could occur sooner than many assert. Nevertheless, given the importance of financial deepening and integration in the internationalization of currencies, any shift will still be gradual.     

Renminbi Going Global

The present paper evaluates the international status of the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), by examining its use in the global market. Specifically, the discussion focuses on the recent developments of RMB trading in the global foreign exchange market, cross‐border trade settlement in RMB, the Hong Kong offshore market and China's policies relating to the RMB. The evidence suggests that the use of the RMB overseas, especially in trade financing and in the off‐shore market, has increased rapidly in recent years. However, compared with the size of the Chinese economy, the current scale of the use of the RMB is quite small. Although the RMB has great potential to become an international currency, its acceptance in the global economy is affected by both economic and political factors. Attaining a fully fledged international RMB is still a distant goal.     

对外开放条件下的金融安全问题

我国近几年外贸顺差的连创新高,并且进、出口增长的走势与世界经济的联动性日益明显,我国的实体经济已经越来越融入全球经济的大环境当中。同时,我们外贸结构的升级也正在以更快的步伐前进,我国双边贸易的高速增长仍将维持一段时间。中国股市在经历了“2.27”暴跌之后,全球各主要股市随后也遭到重挫。笔者并不认为目前中国的股市对于全球市场有如此巨大的影响,但是全球石油美元的流动以及日元利差交易的变化情况已经逐渐受到国内投资者的重视,中国资本市场已经成为了全球市场的重要一环。在国内实体经济、虚拟经济与世界联动性不断增强的背景下,我们应该更加关注外部因素对于国内经济稳定性的影响,同时也要从其他国家的历史发展经验当中吸取金融安全监管方面的教训。     

外贸结构、外贸安全与经济发展

全球化是一把双刃剑,在受益于全球化的同时,开放国家特别是发展中国家也面临着如何在全球经济的浪潮中趋利避害、防范经济风险的严峻挑战。本文在对外贸结构与外贸安全、国内经济发展的关系进行理论分析的基础上,对英国和日本经济的历史变迁进行了经验分析。     

碳关税对我国外贸产生的影响及应对策略

气候大会的相继召开说明各国越来越重视气候变化,发展低碳经济已经成为世界共识。发达国家提出碳关税的概念,以求减少全球二氧化碳排放,引起了以中国为首的发展中国家强烈的反对。主要介绍碳关税的含义、由来以及目前实施的现状,分析征收碳关税将对我国外贸产生的巨大影响,最后从国内和国际两个层面提出应对碳关税的措施。     

“走出去”为何能拉动出口

出口对于中国经济至关重要，在全球范围金融危机发生的背景下，对外承包工程和对外直接投资所带动的出口异军突起，由此引发的一个问题是，实施“走出去”战略对出口产生了怎样的影响？论文从统计核算的基本原理出发，分析了走出去带动出口的机理，并在此基础上通过整合商务部、海关总署、国家外汇管理局、以及国家统计局的相关数据，调查重点企业等方式对中国对外承包工程和对外直接投资带动出口的规模进行了实际测算。论文的创新之处体现在，将国际贸易统计标准的最新进展与中国改革开放实践相结合，提供了“走出去”带动出口的经验证据。     

后危机时代辽宁外贸结构调整对策研究

国际金融危机以及由此引发的世界经济衰退,对辽宁省外贸发展战略提出了严峻挑战。尽管近期世界经济有回暖迹象,但全球需求市场仍然处于低迷状态。后危机时代,辽宁外贸如想保持增长态势,迫切需要加快转变外贸发展方式,制定和实施新的外贸发展战略。本文分析了后危机时代世界经济调整对辽宁外贸造成的影响,并提出促进辽宁对外贸易结构调整的相应对策和建议。     

Impact of Foreign Bank Presence on Foreign Direct Investment in China

We analyze the impact of foreign bank presence on foreign direct investment (FDI) in China. The connection between the two could be particularly relevant for an emerging economy like China because the supply of financial services provided by banks may act as a constraining factor. Foreign bank presence may then enable and foster FDI and not simply result from it. Our estimates demonstrate that FDI across regions in China is increasing in the existing network of regional branches of foreign banks, which itself is driven (and, therefore, instrumented) by the timing of the regional phasing out of the local limits for foreign banks on local currency business. The effect of foreign bank presence on FDI is particularly strong for some specific sectors (farming, manufacturing, construction, transportation, wholesale/retail trade and real estate) if those sectors are strongly represented in the source economies.     

引用外资与中西部发展战略

中西部大开发是我国在新世纪的一大战略任务,目前,我国中西部地区吸引外资明显落后.为了加快中西部地区经济的发展, 首先要解决好资金和技术问题,除了国家拨款和东部支援以外,利用外资是一个很好的途径.要更好地吸引和利用外资,必须实施反梯度优惠的引资政策,强化中西部地区投资环境中政策性因素的作用;放宽服务贸易领域进入限制;探索多元化的利用外资方式,以扩大非直接投资为主导,引导直接投资进入.     

DELAYS IN STABILIZATION OR IN REFORMS? THE DEBT CRISIS

Empirical analyses attributing the 1980s’ debt crisis to inconsistent stabilization policies rest on an inappropriate long‐run approach. Revising this long‐run approach yields opposite results: terms of trade shocks and foreign indebtedness explain this crisis, regardless of domestic stabilization policies. This prompts us to consider a new hypothesis, of delays in trade‐policy reforms, with a model in which terms‐of‐trade variation (under shocks) is endogenous to export structure and efficiency of resource allocation. Evidence from the structural equations model shows that allocation distortions negatively affect changes in terms of trade, which then explain this crisis. A political economy extension demonstrates that income inequality and regional trade policy determine the distortions, which in turn leads to this crisis.     

黑龙江省绥芬河市对外贸易浅析

绥芬河市近年来受益于对外贸易的繁荣,整体经济实力保持了高速增长,已经成为经济增长点。但绥芬河市对外贸易要想保持快速发展势头,继续带动当地经济发展,仍有一些问题亟待解决。解决问题的途径应从转变城市职能定位、调整贸易结构着手。     

土耳其外贸战略新发展与中土经贸关系

在经历了2000～2001年的短暂金融危机之后,土耳其经济近年来恢复了高速增长的势头,特别是对外贸易发展尤为迅速。土耳其经济的发展既得益于其国内的经济改革,也归功于其成功的外贸战略调整。这些调整主要是在巩固与传统盟友——美国关系的基础上,进一步加大"入盟"力度,重视同周边的中东、中亚、非洲等国家的经济联系,增强在伊斯兰世界的影响力,同时积极拓展同环太亚洲国家的经贸合作。2005年土耳其启动了新的对华贸易政策,中土正在重新认识和发现对方,双边关系正在进入一个"新时期"。     

破解中国经济高增长与居民低消费并存的困境

我国经济多年保持高速增长,但居民消费水平并没有同步提高。本文认为长期贸易顺差推动了我国经济快速增长和外汇储备的增加,却并未提高国内居民的福利水平。并且,外向型经济增长加剧我国贫富分化,抑制国内需求,不能保持经济长期的高增长率。我国应调整外汇储备策略,将外汇储备内生化为国民经济发展的助推器,并合理推进人民币国际化进程。此外,在促进国际贸易收支基本平衡的同时,扩大国内消费需求,提高居民消费水平。     

Exploring the limits of comparative advantage

Exploring the Limits of Comparative Advantage. - The paper examines extensions of the Law of Comparative Advantage to several situations that have not been adequately covered before. The basic result is the positive one that a country’s pattern of trade will be negatively correlated with its relative autarky prices. The first extension is to situations of unbalanced trade. The second extension is to an economy with domestic distortions. Finally, the third extension is to a lumpy country model, in which regions of a country may differ in various ways, including differences in factor prices.     

China＇s Economy in 2006/2007： Managing High Growth for Faster Structural Adjustment

China's economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of 10.5 to 10.7 percent with low inflation (CPI at 1.3 percent),dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO,China has become a significant global economic player,and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power (jingji daguo). China's economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China's domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China's growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent,the national mood now is one of "more balanced" growth rather than "fast growth". Therefore,the building of a "harmonious society" is to be emphasized in China,while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007,the government will also need to deal with various internal and external macroeconomic imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue,given China's record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.     

论我国对外贸易中知识产权争端的解决

在知识经济时代,知识产权已成为技术标准和技术性贸易壁垒的重要支撑,成为连接技术与经济贸易的纽带。我国对外贸易在取得长足发展的同时,知识产权问题却越来越突出,成为国外关注的焦点之一。知识产权成为发达国家垄断和控制技术的利器,并已成为我国众多企业参与国际竞争的重大障碍。为提高我国出口商品竞争力、减少和化解外贸知识产权争端,政府和企业应联手协作,方能在国际知识产权战略中占据制高点。     

Human capital,FTAs and foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment flows into ASEAN in a gravity model using the bilateral FDI data from 2000 to 2009. In particular, we study the key factors that determine the FDI flows into the region including human capital development and whether membership of a bilateral or regional trade agreement has a differential impact on FDI flows using an extended gravity model. The empirical results indicate that free trade agreements do have positive impact on FDI inflows. However, the returns on FDI inflows depend on the domestic absorptive capacity of the economy and region. It is imperative for ASEAN to align its infrastructure, human capital and technologies to provide MNCs with the necessary linkages to the global network and also to move the domestic industries seamlessly up the global production value-chain. The paper highlights that this is crucial for deeper ASEAN integration and for sustainable growth in the region.     

近代天津对外贸易与工业经济增长的实证研究

本文根据协整理论,利用天津近代1894～1948年数据,实证分析了对外贸易与工业经济增长之间的关系。协整检验结果显示,长期而言,工业经济增长与对外贸易之间构成了稳定的均衡关系。协整分析方程显示,在长期内,对外贸易增长可以显著地促进工业经济增长。Granger因果关系检验结果显示,对外贸易与工业经济增长之间存在双向因果关系,进一步说明了对外贸易可以带动工业经济增长,这是天津近代工业经济高速增长的重要因素。