Re-study on Chinese city size and policy formation

The past four decades, especially the first decade of the 21st century, have witnessed dramatic development in terms of industrialization and urbanization in China. In the process, both, urban agglomeration economies and diseconomies played important roles, although the latter has long been neglected by researchers. Taking economic productivity, environmental quality, and commuting costs into account, this paper re-studies the optimum size of Chinese cities. Based on three reasonable assumptions, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the optimum size in a particular city, which is affected directly by commuting costs, preference degree for environmental quality, as well as industrial structure. Using China's population census and urban yearbook data in 2000 and 2010, we find that city size imbalances in China are obvious. First-tier cities are oversized, while other cities are undersized, and this imbalance becomes more significant while considering urban environmental quality.     

Remedy or Poison: Impacts of China's Outward Direct Investment on Its Exports

During the past decade, China's outward direct investment (ODI) and exports have experienced rapid growth, drawing increasing attention to the relationship between them. Using the gravity model based on panel data on China's ODI and trade to 174 countries and regions during 2003–2012, the present paper investigates the impacts of China's ODI on exports. We find that China's ODI to a host country significantly promotes China's trade with that economy: a 10‐percent increase in ODI stock can lead to a 2.14‐percent increase in exports, a 2.07‐percent increase in imports and a 2.87‐percent increase in net exports. The scale of the host country's economy, its infrastructure and its distance to China also have significant impacts on China's exports. Therefore, growth in ODI will facilitate China's trade and integration into the global economy, and enhance industrial upgrading in China by transferring the low‐end industries abroad.     

中国能源强度的空间异质性及其影响因素研究

伴随着我国经济增长以及产业结构升级,能源强度及其影响因素在空间分布上呈现的特性具有新的变化。选取2015年中国30个省(区、市)的相关数据建立地理加权回归模型,实证研究了能源强度的空间异质性及其影响因素。结果表明:中国省域能源强度存在明显正的空间自相关性,并且在空间上存在明显的集聚特征,西北地区能源强度较高,东南地区能源强度较低;技术进步、经济发展水平、外开放程度与能源强度成负相关关系,对能源强度的降低有促进作用;第二产业比重、第三产业比重、能源价格与能源强度成正相关关系。     

Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Export on Urbanization: Evidence from China

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports on urbanization in China. Using prefecture city‐level panel data covering China's 262 prefecture cities for the period 2004–2013 and employing a dynamic panel system generalized method of moments model with instrumental variable regression techniques, our study finds that FDI and exports have, on average, played a significantly positive role in China's urbanization. However, the impacts of FDI and exports on urbanization vary across regions. FDI has a positive and significant impact on urbanization in the coastal region but has no impact on urbanization in the inland region. Exports have a positive and significant impact on urbanization in both the coastal and inland regions, but the effect is much larger in the coastal region than in the inland region. The results imply that further attracting FDI inflows and promoting exports will contribute to China's urbanization, especially for the inland region.     

Taxation and the Environment–Health–Poverty Trap: A Policy Experiment Perspective

Under pressures related to economic growth and environmental protection, China is facing an increasingly severe “environment–health–poverty” trap risk. Fuel taxation is generally considered an effective policy to counter such a risk. Since 2009 China has raised the fuel tax rate many times to enhance tax reform. However, the effects of this policy remain unknown. Therefore, it is vitally important to estimate the impacts of China's current fuel taxation policy on environment, public health and the national economy. As the first attempt in existing literature on China, this paper builds a general equilibrium framework with the feedback effect of public health on economy. We find that that the fuel tax policy benefits the adjustment of the economic structure and improves human health; however, it is detrimental to economic growth, public welfare and price stability. In this sense, it plays a limited role in reducing the trap risk and might not be sustainable in the long term.     

基于CiteSpace的人口变动研究前沿和热点分析

采用CiteSpace文献可视化分析软件，以WOS（Web of Science）数据库来源文献和CNKI（中国知网知识发现网络平台）来源文献的知识图谱作为分析依据，探究人口变动研究的前沿和热点。结果表明：人口变动研究正从范式积累期向范式变革期平稳过渡；中国人口变动研究较为局限，具有“实用性”特征，横向发展趋势明显；自然变动和迁移变动是人口变动研究前沿，对社会变动关注不足。     

Are China's trade interests overestimated? Evidence from firms’ importing behavior and pollution emissions

Importing is an important driving force for a country's economic growth. While importing promotes the expansion of economic scale, does it also lead the increase of pollution emissions in production? In this paper, we establish a micro theoretical model to analyze the impacts of importing on firms’ environmental performance, and then use the data of China's manufacturing firms for empirical tests. We show that the importing of intermediate goods or capital goods will lead to the increase of firms’ production scale, and thereby increasing their total emissions, which suggests that China's environment will be deteriorated by importing. On the other hand, importing also has some positive environmental effects that firms will increase their abatement investment after importing intermediate goods or capital goods, thus firms’ emission intensity can be effectively reduced. Altogether, this paper provides important evidence on the impacts of importing on pollution emissions at product-level. We suggest that when analyzing China's interests in trade, the environmental effects of trade should be taken into consideration, otherwise China's gains from trade will be overestimated. This paper also has important implications that while developing the economy through international trade, the government should strengthen environmental protection and advocate green trade.     

Policy Options for China＇s Bio-ethanol Development and the Implications for Its Agricultural Economy

The present paper analyzes the potential impacts of bio-ethanol expansion on agricultural production, food prices and farmers＇ incomes in different regions of China. The results show that increase in demand for feedstock to produce bio-ethanol will lead to large increase in the prices of agricultural products. The increase in prices will trigger a significant rise in the production of feedstock at the cost of lower rice and wheat production. The study also reveals that the impacts of bio-ethanol on farmers＂ incomes vary largely among regions and farmer groups. Given the expected expansion of bio-ethanol production in the future, and the limited land resources for feedstock production in China, the viability of different crops as feedstock for bio-ethanol requires careful analysis before a large-scale expansion of China＇s bio-ethanol program. Bio-ethanol production in China should be relying more on the second generation of bio-ethanol technologies （i.e. using celluloses to produce bio-ethanol）, and China＇s government should increase research investment in this field.     

Influence of International Openness on Corporate Environmental Performance in China

This paper examines how international openness influences China's corporate environmental performance. A unique firm‐level dataset is constructed by combining two databases: the Annual Industrial Survey and the China GreenWatch Program Rating System. The empirical results obtained from a series of ordered probit models indicate that openness has a positive relation to corporate environmental performance in China. However, the two main market‐opening strategies in China, exporting and attracting foreign investment, have different effects on environmental performance. The results reveal that foreign investment plays a substantial and positive role that can support the environmental spillovers in China. However, the effect of exporting is insignificant. The environmental pressure from foreign customers to improve Chinese firms' environmental performance presents a challenge. Our study indicates that China could make environmental quality improvements through increased international openness, as is likely the case for other developing countries.     

Productivity change and the effects of policy reform in China's agriculture since 1979

During China's rural reforms, policies were frequently adjusted. Most policies favoured the continuation and deepening of reform; but some were contradictory or even led to regression in the reform process. How have the rural reforms affected China's agricultural production over the past three decades; and what lessons can be learned to aid the future course of reform? To answer these questions, this study estimates productivity change in China's agriculture and evaluates the effects of policy on agricultural output during the reform period. Aggregated provincial‐level data for the 1979–2008 period are used in a translog production frontier model to estimate indices of total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components—technical change, technical efficiency change, and a scale effect—with a focus on explaining the variation in technical efficiency. The estimation results show that the impressive improvement of TFP change is dominated by the technical change component. However, technical efficiency change and scale effects have worked against the improvement in TFP change in most periods. To improve technical efficiency, social welfare policies designed to eliminate the rural–urban divide, and reform polices focusing on factor market reforms, such as reform of the household registration system (hukou) and reform of land rights, seem to hold some potential.     

Who Influences the Asian–Pacific Real Estate Markets: The US,Japan or China?

As rapid economic growth in China has led to significant appreciation of urban real estate market values, this study examines China's influence on Asian–Pacific real estate markets by focusing on their respective market integration with the US, Japan and China during the period January 2005 to December 2017. Market integration is examined by unconditional and time‐varying conditional correlations, nonlinear Granger causality and dynamic connectedness effects. Overall, although the US and Japanese real estate markets have significantly influenced return and volatility in the regional markets, China has emerged as another major regional real estate volatility leader with rising influence over volatility integration, especially during the 2007–2011 crisis period. Financial crises have strengthened China's volatility connectedness effects and market integration with other Asian–Pacific real estate markets. Our results imply that the benefits of regional portfolio diversification may be declining as volatility integration across the Chinese and Asian–Pacific real estate markets becomes stronger. Therefore, diversified global investors should pay greater attention to these real estate markets.     

Dynamic relationship between China's inward and outward foreign direct investments

This paper studies the dynamic relationship of China's inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI). It first identifies the key determinants of China's outward FDI (OFDI) in 172 host countries during 2003–2009 using a partial stock adjustment model. It finds strong evidence of dynamic adjustment in China's OFDI stock with an agglomeration effect. The dynamic adjustment and agglomeration effects are stronger in “high-tech” countries than in “low-tech” ones but indifferent in host country's resource endowments and income levels. The empirical results suggest that there exists a substantial adjustment cost in China's OFDI and that China's existing OFDI stock can gradually adjust toward its long-term equilibrium level, which is not only greater but also more volatile than the actual stock. Of particular interest is that we find a strong and positive relationship between lagged inward FDI (IFDI) and contemporaneous OFDI, implying that capital outflow from China has been partially induced by the countries which have invested in China.     

国内外智慧城市群研究与实践述评

城市群是信息化和城镇化发展过程中的主要空间载体,是区域发展的重要增长极。将智慧城市融合到城市群中,在协同发展的基础上打造智慧城市群,为解决城市群的不平衡发展提供了巨大机遇。阐述了城市群与智慧城市的发展历程、智慧城市群的内涵,认为智慧城市发展契合城市群建设,城市群建设带动智慧城市相关产业发展。梳理了近三年国内外文献以及国内外智慧城市群建设的典型实践,提出了当前我国智慧城市群研究的不足与后续研究的展望。     

Effect of Parental Migration on the Academic Performance of Left‐behind Middle School Students in Rural China

China's rapid development and urbanization over the past 30 years have caused large numbers of rural residents to migrate to urban areas in search of work. This has created a generation of children who remain behind in rural areas when their parents migrate for work. Previous research has found mixed impacts of parental migration on the educational achievement of left‐behind children (LBC), perhaps because of methodological deficiencies and lack of recognition of the heterogeneity of this population of children. Our study attempts to examine the impact of six types of parental migration on the academic achievement of a rural junior high school sample. Our study uses a panel of 7148 junior high school students to implement a difference‐in‐difference analysis and finds that parental migration has a negative and significant impact on the academic achievement of junior high school students. Our study suggests that the Chinese Government should implement measures to dismantle barriers to the human capital accumulation of LBC to ensure sustainable economic growth and human capital development in China.     

Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade

China's food security has been facing several challenges, which are likely to be worsened due to climate change. The purpose of this paper is to provide an evidence on the impacts of climate change on China's agriculture, with particular attention to the market and trade responses. Using projected crop yield changes for China and its' main trading partners under changing climate, we employ an agricultural partial equilibrium model (CAPSiM) and a linked national and global equilibrium model (CAPSiM-GTAP) to assess the impacts on food production, price, trade and self-sufficiency of China. Our results show that climate change will have significant effects on crop production though with large differences among crops. Under the worst climate change scenario RCP 8.5, wheat yield in China is projected to decline by 9.4% by 2050, which is the biggest yield reduction among the crops. However, the market can also respond to the climate change, as farmers can change inputs in response to reduced yields and rising prices. As a result, production losses for most crops are dampened. For example, wheat production loss under RCP8.5 reduces to only 4.3% due to market response. The adverse impacts on crop production will be further reduced after accounting for the trade response as farmers adjust production to much higher prices in the more severely affected countries. The paper concludes that we need to learn more from farmers who optimize their production decisions in response to the market and trade signals during climate change. A major policy implication is that policymakers need to mainstream the market and trade responses into national plans for climate adaptation.     

Role of Institutional Quality in Determining the R＆D Investment of Chinese Firms

This study adds to the understanding of China ＂s innovation prospects by examining how variations in institutional quality within China impact on the R ＆D efforts of firms located in different provincial regions. In the process of identifying the effect of institutional quality, the roles of other factors such as ownership types and market structures are revealed, which provides interesting insight into firms ＂ R＆D behavior. The key findings suggest that institutional quality positively affects the decision offirms to engage in R＆D activities. Once firms start to engage in R ＆D, the subsequent expansion of firm-level R ＆D intensity depends on factors such as market structure. Therefore, strengthening domestic institutional quality is the first critical step towards the goal of building a knowledge-intensive economy in China. Efforts to nurture market development are also important for achieving this goal.     

CO2 Emissions Embodied in China＇s Foreign Trade： An Investigation from the Perspective of Global Vertical Specialization

In light of the growth in vertically specialized in global trade, the present paper uses input output tables from the World Input-Output Database to construct an environmental multi regional input-output model to calculate the CO2 emissions embodied in China＇s international trade during 1995-2009. The advantage of this model lies in its incorporation of the re exported CO2 emissions component embodied in trade and its ability to differentiate domestic sourced CO2 emissions from foreign-sourced CO2 emissions in trade. The results show that carbon emissions embodied in both China＇s exports and imports increased significantly during 1995-2009. One important reason for this is that the re-exported carbon emissions embodied in China＇s imported intermediate inputs increased substantially during this period. Our research reveals that accelerating the transformation of trade pattern and upgrading processing trade should be emphasized in the formulation of policy to prompt CO 2 emissions abatement in China.     

Local ＂Land Finance＂ in China＇s Urban Expansion： Challenges and Solutions

This paper considers the issue of local ＂land finance＇＂ in the context of China ＂s fast urban expansion. In an analysis of China ＂s land requisition and public leasing system we argue that low-cost land acquisition is the fundamental cause of land-related distortions that have occurred during China ＂s urbanization. Granting farmers the power to negotiate directly with land users during urban expansion, combined with coordinated land tax reforms to consolidate local tax bases is the key to China achieving both equity and land use efficiency in urban expansion.     

Impact of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on China＇s International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development

This study aims to examine the impact of the China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) on China's international agricultural trade and its regional agricultural development, using the Global Trade Analysis Project model and the China Agricultural Decision Support System. Our analysis showed that: (i) CAFTA will improve resource allocation efficiencies for both China and ASEAN and will promote bilateral agricultural trade and, hence, will have positive effects on the economic development of both sides; (ii) CAFTA will accelerate China's export of the agricultural commodities in which it has comparative advantages, such as vegetables, wheat and horticultural products, but at the same time bring about a large increase in imports of commodities such as vegetable oil and sugar; and (iii) CAFTA will have significantly varying impacts on China's regional agricultural development because of large differences in the agricultural production structure in each region. Our results indicate that agriculture in the northern, northeastern and eastern regions of China will benefit from CAFTA, whereas agriculture development in southern China will suffer. Those regional specific impacts are quite different from the effects brought by multilateral free trade treaties, such as those of the WTO, which usually have positive effects on south China but negative impacts on the northern and western parts of China.     

Analysis on CO2 Emissions Transferred from Developed Economies to China through Trade

Based on a global input–output model, this paper investigates the CO₂ emission transfer between China and developed economies through trade. The results show that approximately 15–23 percent of China's production‐based emissions during 1995–2009 were induced by the production of goods and services satisfying final demand in developed economies. Decomposition of emission transfers shows that trade of intermediate products played a significant role in emission transfer from developed economies to China. Most developed economies have consumption‐based emission responsibilities that are higher than their production‐based responsibilities, whereas China's consumption‐based responsibility is significantly lower than its production‐based responsibility. We argue that a fair and efficient carbon accounting approach should take CO emission transfers from developed economies to developing economies into consideration. It is important that China and its developed trade partners cooperate in reducing emission transfers.