The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

This article investigates the behavior of real exchange rates under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Using data from both the Bretton Woods and the modern floating periods, we decompose real exchange rate movements into components attributable to supply shocks, real demand shocks, monetary shocks, capital flows shocks, and real oil price shocks. Empirical results show that real demand shocks are an important source of real exchange rate movements under both fixed and flexible rates, while monetary shocks are negligible. Supply and oil price shocks seem to be more important under Bretton Woods, while capital flows shocks seem to explain a relatively higher proportion of real exchange rate movements under the modern floating period.     

The Viability of Fixed Exchange Rate Commitments: Does Politics Matter? A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

This article studies the connection between political instability and the sustainability of an exchange rate regime. A model based on the credibility of monetary policy shows that political unrest should be correlated with the adoption of flexible exchange rates. That intuition is tested using various measures of political instability on a panel of 125 countries between 1980 and 1994.     

发展中国家吸引 FDI中的汇率与制度因素分析--以中国和东南亚四国为例

在20世纪90年代时中国、东南亚四国都是跨国公司进行FDI的热土。而在亚洲金融危机后,两者在吸引直接投资中的表现却大相径庭：其中在东南亚国家中FDI流入量波幅巨大,并呈下降趋势;而中国的资金流入却持续攀升。我们发现在危机期间,跨国公司会选择在汇率稳定的国家进行直接投资,规避汇率风险,因而不同汇率制度安排是造成两地区资金流入差异的重要原因。危机后当各国恢复钉住汇率时,完善、规范的制度安排,低廉的交易成本是形成发展中国家国际竞争力的关键因素。     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

Central Bank Autonomy,the Exchange Rate Constraint and Inflation: The Case of Italy, 1970–1992

This paper analyzes the determinants of inflation in Italy over the period 1970–1992. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of central bank independence in influencing monetary growth, and on the role of monetary growth and of the Exchange rate Mechanism (ERM) in affecting inflation. In the 1970s and early 1980s, when the Bank of Italy lacked independence and the ERM was still not credible, monetary growth was highly unstable and was the main determinant of Italian inflation, although oil price and tax shocks also played a role. After the March 1983 general exchange rate realignment and the French U-turn, the ERM became more credible and monetary growth stopped being a significant determinant of inflation; instead, the German inflation became the main variable influencing Italian inflation.     

Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper investigates the recent evolution of five Eastern European exchange rates. Our aim is twofold: to provide an up-to-date view of the predictability and main relations of spot rates with economic fundamentals and to derive some considerations about exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and risk appetite. We propose a non-linear specification where the non-linearity refers to the effect of the interest rate differential. The paper supports the view that given the relevance of capital flows and their sensitivity to risk adjusted yield differentials, the choice of exchange rate regime should be a matter of careful strategy.     

The Role of Public Infrastructure in China's Regional Inequality and Growth: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

Using a simultaneous equations approach, this paper empirically investigates the impact of two types of public infrastructure, transportation infrastructure and knowledge infrastructure, on industrial geography, regional income disparities, and growth across 286 cities in China. It is found that an improvement in transportation infrastructure that reduces trade costs on goods increases growth and decreases income gap at the expense of increasing industrial agglomeration between cities. Therefore, this paper confirms the existence of a trade‐off between spatial equity (more even spatial distribution of economic activities) and spatial efficiency (higher growth rate). However, for knowledge infrastructure that reduces trade costs on ideas, it is found that it increases growth but also decreases income gap and industrial agglomeration simultaneously. Moreover, the impact of knowledge infrastructure is found to be larger in the case of high labor mobility.