Services vs. Manufacturing – How Does Foreign and Domestic Sales Impact on Their R&D?

While the distinction between manufacturing and services becomes increasingly blurred to some observers, we find, using a panel of Swedish firms, clear evidence that foreign sales (exports) are more important than domestic sales for stimulating R&D. This is particularly clear for manufacturing and this importance of foreign sales has increased over time, simultaneous to an opening up of the Swedish economy. Even though service industries have seen an increase in both R&D and trade over time, it is thus mainly manufacturing that has benefited from increased possibilities for absorptive capacity. This result suggests a clear dichotomy between manufacturing and services in terms of how they react to trade and how they turn towards the foreign market vs. the domestic market to find stimuli for innovation.     

Doing business in Malaysia

The importance of international trade to the Malaysian economy can hardly be exaggerated. Trade represents a lifeline for the Malaysian economy. Export‐oriented industrialization in the 1990s converted the labor‐surplus economy into a labor‐deficit one and then back to a labor‐surplus one in 2000 and beyond. The incidence of poverty has fallen by half since the early 1980s. Trade has also contributed much to the structural transformation and modernization of the economy. Had Malaysia been a closed economy, Malaysia would have shared the same fate as some other less developed countries that remain economically backward. Its external trade policy has paved the way for greater inflows of foreign direct investment, as foreign direct investors are not so much interested in serving the small domestic market as serving the vast external market. The large inflows of foreign direct investment have conferred positive effects on the domestic economy. This has meant significant improvements in the overall living standards for the Malaysians. Internationalization has provided employment opportunities, thereby raising their living standards through higher and more stable earnings. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

制造业投入服务化对价值链升级的影响——基于参与度和分工地位的双重视角

制造业投入服务化作为实现制造强国战略的重要手段之一,对价值链升级具有重要推动作用。本文运用世界投入产出数据库2000-2014年的数据,实证考察了制造业投入服务化对中国在全球价值链参与度和分工地位的影响并检验了相关作用机制。研究表明:(1)总体来看,制造业服务化对中国在全球价值链参与度存在“天花板”效应,即随着制造业服务化趋势的加强,其对中国在全球价值链参与度的促进作用是边际递减的,而对制造业分工地位产生显著的正向促进作用。(2)不同服务投入与中国制造业在全球价值链参与度和分工地位的关系存在一定差异,与传统的服务投入(批发零售和运输服务化)相比,现代化的服务投入(电信和金融服务化)对价值链升级的作用更为明显和重要;目前来看,由于国外服务的渗透率较低,所以占据主导力量的国内服务投入对中国制造业分工地位的促进作用更为明显;服务使用率高的制造行业要比服务使用率低的行业对价值链的升级效用更大一些。(3)我国制造业服务化水平整体较低,还未达到制造业投入服务化的最优临界水平,仍都具有很大的提升空间。(4)作用机制检验表明,研发创新是制造业投入服务化促进价值链参与度深化的可能作用渠道。但是制造业服务化通过研发创新对价值链分工地位的影响不存在提升效应,可能还存在其他作用渠道。本文的研究对于中国发展服务型制造业,融入全球价值链生产分工具有重要政策启示。     

Does services liberalization benefit manufacturing firms?: Evidence from the Czech Republic

While there is considerable empirical evidence on the impact of liberalizing trade in goods, the effects of services liberalization have not been empirically established. This study examines the link between services sector reforms and the productivity of manufacturing industries relying on services inputs. Several aspects of services liberalization are considered, namely, the presence of foreign providers, privatization and the level of competition. The results, based on firm-level data from the Czech Republic, show a positive relationship between services sector reform and the performance of domestic firms in downstream manufacturing sectors. Allowing foreign entry into services industries appears to be the key channel through which services liberalization contributes to improved performance of manufacturing sectors. This finding is supported by evidence that foreign acquisitions of Czech services providers result in profound changes in the labor productivity and sales of acquired firms. As most barriers to foreign investment today are not in goods but in services sectors, the findings of this study may strengthen the argument for reform in this area.     

全球价值链重构的经济效应--兼论中美经贸摩擦的影响

2017年,中美关系发生了实质性变化,美国对华战略从合作走向竞争。新冠肺炎疫情下,中美关系更是面临新的不确定性,中美经贸摩擦将影响中美两国的经济,进而产生连锁反应,造成全球价值链的重构。利用2014年世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)和假设提取法,测算中美经贸摩擦和全球价值链重构对世界43个国家或地区的经济影响,并重点模拟中美之间贸易由国内供给替代对增加值和劳动力就业的最大影响。结果表明:第一,基准模型设定下,经济效应存在地区异质性,中国周边地区、美国周边北美自由贸易区受到的影响最大,反映了区域性生产网络的存在。第二,相对美国,中国受影响更大,增加值下降2.5%以上;其余受影响较大的国家有爱尔兰、卢森堡、荷兰;印度和欧洲大部分地区受影响较小。第三,中美经贸摩擦对每个行业的影响不同,受影响最大的行业为中国的家具制造业和其他制造业,计算机、电子和光学产品制造业,以及美国的航空运输业。第四,假设其余国家或地区卷入中美经贸摩擦,存在替代效应和全球价值链重构,部分国家或地区增加值和劳动力就业均上升,上升最多的为22.42%。建议深化实施"一带一路"倡议,主动与周边国家或地区开展经济合作,强化区域价值链的影响,同时积极培育和发展国内产业链。     

Cost disease in service sector

A higher growth rate of the service sector prices, rather than prices in the manufacturing sector, through time is known as cost disease in the service sector. This paper investigates supply and demand-side reasons for cost disease. First, we present an analysis of the supply side of the cost disease, when services and manufacturing play their role both in the intermediate and final demand. Second, we consider a CES utility function for the consumer, which is a function of two commodity services and manufacturing. The results indicate that there are two reasons for cost disease to occur from the supply side in an economy: first, when the growth rate of total factor productivity and technological progress in services is less than that in the manufacturing sector, and second, when the elasticity of substitution between labor and manufacturing input in the services production function is large and elasticity of substitution in manufacturing production function is small. From the demand side, the result shows that the cost disease occurred if the growth rate of the income elasticity of service is more than the manufacturing sector through time.     

Minimum wage,unemployment and international migration

"The link between immigration and unemployment among the native workers of the host country is examined within a model which distinguishes individuals in terms of their ability to perform services in the labor market. An inflow of foreign workers is found to have an ambiguous effect on the level of income received by the native factors of production. This is in sharp contrast to the findings that immigration improves welfare in a fully employed host country and that it unambiguously lowers welfare in a minimum-wage economy with homogeneous labor."     

Multinational enterprises and domestic wages: The contingent effect of skill composition

While previous literature has extensively shown that foreign-owned firms pay higher wages than domestically owned firms, the examination of intra-industry wage spillovers between foreign-owned and domestic companies has received much less attention, particularly among non-core EU economies. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on wage spillovers of foreign multinational enterprises onto domestic firms by considering whether the presence of MNE subsidiaries in the Spanish manufacturing industry affects wages in domestic firms in the same industry. Although no evidence supports the existence of wage spillovers from MNEs onto domestic firms on aggregate, we show that the effect of this outside presence on domestic wages is significantly more positive in step with the higher level of workers’ skills in domestic firms. Because only workers in domestic firms with a highly skilled workforce will benefit from wage spillovers from the foreign firm presence in the industry, policy makers need bear in mind that not all FDI will automatically generate spillover benefits to domestic firms.     

Doing business in South Africa

This survey of the South African business environment outlines the major transformations the country has experienced since 1994. The economy has been restructured, which enhanced fiscal and monetary discipline as well as domestic and global competitiveness. The general business climate has been improved, but continued progress requires (1) prioritization of social issues such as HIV/AIDS, employment, and crime and (2) accelerated privatization, market reforms, and clarity about black economic empowerment. Such changes may stimulate inflation‐rate reduction, foreign exchange stability, and an increase in foreign direct investment. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The labor force of the future.

In the decades ahead, the US labor force will reflect changes in the industrial structure, with declines in some manufacturing industries and expansion in service industries. The services sector is so diverse that the jobs within it cannot be categorized as either high wage or low wage. The service-producing sector employs 85% of professional specialty workers in the US. In general, information on compensation trends indicates that greater increases in compensation have occurred for workers in service-producing as opposed to goods-producing industries. The increase in service sector jobs has created opportunities for women to enter the labor force and, at present, 5 out of 6 women work in this sector compared to fewer than 2 out of 3 men. Productivity growth rates in the service-producing industries vary substantially and are strongly affected by the business cycle. Central to employment opportunities in the years ahead will be the effect of new technology. To date, the aggregate effect of new technology has been increased employment and higher living standards. Although retraining programs should be in place, the scenario of a huge technology-created labor surplus seems unlikely. In fact, a more likely problem is a shortage of labor resulting from earlier labor force withdrawal and demographic aging of the population. Those in the 25-54-year age group will represent a larger share of the labor force in the years ahead. In addition, blacks are expected to account for 20% of the labor force growth in the next decade. Finally, given increasing labor force participation rates among mothers, employers may have to provide more flexible work schedules, assistance with day care, and more attractive benefits packages.     

Foreign Firms and Chinese Employment

This paper examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on employment in the Chinese manufacturing sector. As one of the world's largest recipients of FDI, China has arguably benefited from foreign multinational enterprises in various respects. However, one of the main challenges for China, and other developing countries, is job creation, and the effect of FDI on employment is uncertain. The effect depends on the amount of jobs created within foreign firms as well as the effect of FDI on employment in domestic firms. We analyse FDI and employment in China using a large sample of manufacturing firms for the period 1998–2004. Our results show that FDI has positive effects on employment growth. The relatively high employment growth in foreign firms is associated with their firm characteristics and their high survival rate. Employment growth is also relatively high in private domestic Chinese firms. There also seems to be a positive indirect effect of FDI on employment in private domestically‐owned firms, presumably caused by spillovers.     

The impacts of trade liberalization on informal labor markets: A theoretical and empirical evaluation of the Brazilian case

Following trade liberalization, several developing countries experienced a sharp increase in the share of informal manufacturing employment. In this paper, I examine the impacts of trade liberalization on the labor markets of a small open economy, in an environment in which tariffs affect firms' payroll tax compliance decisions. I demonstrate that a reduction in domestic import tariffs reduces the average formal wage and show that the direction of the effect on the share of informal employment depends on the initial labor market conditions. A cut in trading partner import tariffs decreases the share of domestic informal employment and increases the average formal wage. I confirm the model's principal findings empirically, using data from the 1989–2001 Brazilian trade liberalization episode. I find the results robust to endogeneity and self-selection concerns, which are addressed, respectively, using instrumental variable and switching regression approaches.     

美国制造业重振面临的人才储备挑战

当前美国为摆脱金融危机所实行的制造业重振战略正面临人才储备不足的困境。长期以来在去工业化的过程中,美国制造业就业人数持续下降,且制造业人才储备不断减少。为此,美国从重视理工科教育入手制订长期人才储备战略,通过改革移民政策与提高特殊专业人员临时工作签证上限留住高技能留学生,运用贸易、税收优惠等手段提升本国制造业竞争力,为制造业创造更多的吸纳人才空间。对我国而言,面对来自于美国制造业的长期挑战,需要高度重视工科人才的培养,并积极吸引留学生回国创业。     

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE POSTED WORKERS DIRECTIVE

The consequences of an increase in the minimum wage for foreign workers in the construction sector, implied by the EU Posted Workers Directive, are analyzed. Due to the rising price of construction services, the factor demand for both construction services and capital in the tradeable good sector falls, and the wage rate in this sector declines. While the share of domestic workers increases with respect to both foreign workers and capital in the construction sector, this need not suffice to reduce unemployment. A possible higher level of employment of natives is not sufficient to raise natives’ welfare.     

透视“民工荒”——当前我国农村劳动力转移态势的人口经济学分析

改革开放以来沿海地区持续了二十多年的“民工潮”,近年来却悄然退去,演变成了令人震惊的“民工荒”。原因究竟何在?劳动力无限供给不等于有效供给,进城民工人力资本存量不足,在劳动力市场上缺乏就业竞争能力,“民工荒”表现为“数量荒”,实际上是“质量荒”,来源于民工的“教育荒”。从一定意义上说,“民工荒”反映的又是“权利荒”。善待民工,规范用工行为,切实维护民工的合法权益, 才能营造出一个留住民工的良好就业环境。     

黑河口岸对俄出境务工人员劳动权保障现状调查报告

在全球化劳务输出的大背景下,为解决中国众多剩余劳动力问题,促进劳务交流,改善劳动力出国环境,以中国对外输出劳务具有代表性的口岸城市黑河为蓝本,针对劳务输出中的出国途径、务工从事行业、纠纷处理方式、政府部门发挥的作用等一系列与劳动权保障相关的问题进行阐述,探求国内劳动力输出障碍的根本原因,以及解决这一问题的根本途径。     

海外投资、经济发展水平与国内就业技能结构——理论机理与基于我国数据的实证研究

本文阐述了当经济发展水平不同时,海外投资如何影响不同技能劳动的就业。实证研究结果表明:当经济发展水平较低时,海外投资会减少高技能劳动就业,增加低技能劳动就业,进而降低就业技能结构;而当经济发展水平较高时,海外投资则能促进高技能劳动就业,减少低技能劳动就业,提升就业技能结构。同时,本文使用分位数回归检验了当就业技能结构处于不同分位数时,海外投资提升就业技能结构的经济发展水平临界值存在的差异,由此可以推断我国企业在不同就业技能结构下的海外投资动机。     

产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。     

Manufacturing outsourcing,onshoring, and global equilibrium

Manufacturing is now a national strategy for many countries to combat slow economic growth, and positively viewed with the current trend of onshoring foreign manufacturing operations. We develop a cross-country regression model that predicts manufacturing employment as a function of population growth, foreign direct investment, and purchasing power parity. Results through the year 2100 suggest that manufacturing is trending toward a global equilibrium with higher levels of manufacturing outputs but much lower levels of manufacturing employment. The reason is that countries tend to evolve from having little manufacturing to commodity manufacturing at large scale and low wages. As infrastructure and human capital develop, there is the tendency to pursue advanced manufacturing in support of higher valued goods. The manufacture of commodity products is then outsourced to those countries with lower costs justified by their less-developed infrastructure and human capital, and so the virtuous cycle continues. While this model suggests that current efforts in revitalization of domestic manufacturing would lead to an increase in wealth in the United States, the bad news is that these gains are unlikely to be sustainable in the long term. However, the good news is that manufacturing acts as a rising tide that raises all nations and our global quality of life.     

The GATS and liberalization in a natural-resource rich country

Abstract

We highlight the role of natural resources in countries that use resource revenues to subsidize employment in state-owned services sectors by developing a model of service provision where domestic incumbents and a foreign entrant compete. We find that when natural resource prices have a higher likelihood of increasing, domestic firms control most of the market share but that industry output drops. However, the output of the services industry rises with domestic firms losing market share when natural resource prices are likely to go down. This suggests that a government focused narrowly only on the growth and development of its economy would prefer services liberalization when natural resource prices are likely to be higher.