国际资本形成对我国经济产生的风险及对策

20世纪美国等发达国家进一步在全世界倡导金融自由化政策，新兴市场国家的金融自由化及信息技术的广泛应用使得国际资本以更大规模、更快速度在国际金融市场上自由流动，并对新兴市场经济体产生了深远影响。但是90年代后期，墨西哥、泰国、韩国、马来西亚、巴西等新兴市场经济体相继发生了金融危机，甚至引发犬规模的经济动荡，使得经济界重新审视、思考国际资本流动的影响。我国近几年成为国际资本流入的大国，那么国际资本形成在促进我国经济增长的同时，会给我们带来哪些方面的风险呢？文章重点分析了国际资本形成中所产生的风险，并提出防范风险的对策建议。     

Measuring Global and Regional Trade Integration in Terms of Concentration of Access

I apply concentration measures from the inequality literature—the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient—to the measurement of global and regional integration, and show that these can be derived from the theoretical gravity model in the presence of unequal costs of access for firms from different locations to aparticular market. Overall, comparing nine economies, I find that the United States is the most globalized on these measures, and India and China are the least globalized. The smaller EU economies, which are very open on standard measures, should probably be viewed as regionalized rather than globalized. JEL no. F10, F15, C49     

Economic Integration and Manufacturing Concentration Patterns: Evidence from MERCOSUR

Over the past two decades, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay have implemented unilateral trade liberalization programs and formed MERCOSUR. The effects of these reforms on production structures in these countries have not received a great deal of attention. This paper analyses patterns of relative manufacturing concentration in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay over the period 1985–1998. Our results indicate that localisation of demand and comparative advantages are the main driving forces of these patterns. The establishment of MERCOSUR has fostered the relative importance of factor endowments and production linkages in shaping the spatial distribution of manufacturing in the above three countries. JEL Classification Numbers: F14, F15, L60, C23     

Antidumping and foreign divestment: Japanese electronics multinationals in the EU

This paper explores the relationship between the closure of “antidumping jumping” manufacturing plants and the repeal of antidumping measures. Of 67 identified Japanese “antidumping jumping” production lines in the EU in 1990 only 31 remained in operation in 1999. Analysis of the probability of divestment for 209 Japanese plants in the broadly defined electronics industry shows that Japanese plants of manufacturing products for which antidumping duties had been repealed are significantly and substantially more likely to be divested. The results suggest that the potential positive effects of antidumping duties on host economies by inducing inward investment are in many cases short-lived and easily overestimated. JEL no. F23, F13, L11     

The Dynamics of International Trade Patterns

This paper introduces new dynamic measures for examining changes in international trade patterns. Using data for 20 OECD countries over the 1980–2000 period, we show that inter-industry trade changes contrary to countries’ previous specialization are frequently the dominant form of trade expansion. The econometric analysis indicates that the observed changes in trade patterns were explained by initial endowments of human-capital and industry-specific changes in labour productivity and labour costs. The results also suggest that trade liberalization induced an increase in the previous specialization of larger OECD economies in industries with increasing returns to scale. JEL no. F1, O33, O50     

Exchange rate volatility,international trade and labour demand

The purpose of this study is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility generates a positive effect on an exporting firm’s labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option, provided that firms are flexible with respect to international trade. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and can increase the demand for labour. The firm’s trade flexibility can be interpreted as a real hedging strategy when financial markets are incomplete. In many newly industrializing countries and emerging economies financial markets are imperfect or risk sharing markets are just starting to develop at a rather slow pace.     

Gains from Trade: Implications for Labour Market Adjustment and Poverty Reduction in Africa

Abstract: This paper reassesses the gains from trade for sub‐Saharan Africa, and draws their implications for labour market adjustment and poverty reduction. It reviews previous studies on multilateral liberalization, focusing on the findings from Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models with relevance to African economies. The implications of these findings for poverty reduction are discussed. Our own CGE exercise supports the hypothesis that African countries cannot expect substantial gains from further multilateral liberalization. Moreover, given the sharp contraction of import‐competing sectors in response to trade liberalization in many African economies, coupled with insufficient compensation through labour market adjustments in other sectors, this study suggests that the ultimate impact on poverty reduction is likely to be small or even negative.     

Economic openness and trade linkages of China: An empirical study of the determinants of chinese trade intensities from 1993 to 1999

In the 1980s, the Chinese regime took a number of piecemeal steps toward economic liberalization. This process accelerated impressively in the 1990s. This paper reports an empirical study into the determinants of the emerging pattern of Chinese trade (export and import) intensities in the liberalization decade by exploring international trade statistics for 1993 and 1999. Four models are estimated that explain the shifts in the export and import intensities of the trade with different trade partners in the 1993–1999 period. The estimation results reveal differences for export vis-à-vis import trade intentities, as well as for 1993 compared to 1999. For example, the political determinants of trade intensities that were still very important in 1993 have been moved to the background by economic explanations in 1999. JEL no. F14     

The Competitive Impact of International Trade: The Case of Import Liberalization of the Japanese Oil Product Market

This paper analyzes the competitive impact of the recent import liberalization of the Japanese oil product market. In response to the import liberalization in March 1996, not only did the market price of gasoline decline sharply but also its domestic production kept rising and did not decline relative to imports. Moreover, its price fell substantially before the actual liberalization of the import. This paper demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the theory of implicit cartel can explain such features of the impact of import liberalization very well. The paper also identifies the significantly positive welfare impact of such liberalization due to the expansion of supply in a market with a large tax wedge between price and cost and, possibly more importantly, due to the transformation of competitive conduct from unproductive investment for cartel-rent shifting into price cuts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 397–423. Hitotsubashi University; and Keio University. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: L40, F12, K21.     

Capital mobility and EU enlargement

Capital Mobility and EU Enlargement. — The membership of the Eastern European transition economies in the EU would require inter alia the full liberalization of their capital flows. Using the correlation between domestic saving and investment, this paper provides empirical evidence of the openness with respect to foreign capital that the accession states have attained so far. A comparison with the southern members of the EU shows that the countries under review have reached a similar degree of integration in quantitative terms. Yet, further adjustment in qualitative terms, i.e., in the structure of capital flows, can be expected as the process of accession proceeds.     

Health,Education and Emergence from the Development Trap

Abstract: This paper studies the emergence of developing countries from a development trap. It shows that countries whose dynamics exhibits several growth peaks can be considered as cases of equilibrium jump. Applying this criterion to a sample of 65 countries that were initially very poor in 1950, it identifies 13 such countries, called ‘emerging economies’. Comparing emerging and non‐emerging economies in the 1950s and early 1960s, it shows that economic take‐offs starting in the 1960s can be related to health and education in the early 1950s, while other possible factors, such as savings, openness and democracy are not significant.     

China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries

We analyze the impact of China’s growth on the exports of other Asian countries, distinguishing China’s demand for imports from its penetration of export markets. We account for the endogeneity of Chinese exports by applying instrumental variables in a gravity model with country-pair fixed-effects. We find that China’s crowding-out effect is felt mainly in markets for consumer goods and hence by less-developed Asian countries, not in markets for capital goods or by the more advanced Asian economies. Meanwhile, China has been sucking in imports from its Asian neighbors, but this effect is mainly felt in markets for capital goods. Hence, more and less developed Asian countries are being affected very differently by China’s rise. JEL no. E5, F4     

Rules of origin and exports in developing economies: The case of garment products

Relaxing restrictive rules of origin (ROO) in preferential market access can promote exports in developing economies by improving input sourcing flexibility, but actual ROO impacts remain an empirical question. This paper examines the European Union’s trade preferences, where origin requirements for knit and woven garment products were relaxed for beneficiaries in the Interim Economic Partnership Agreements (IEPA) from 2008 and for those in the Everything But Arms (EBA) scheme from 2011, respectively. The results show that ROO liberalization had little aggregate impact on knit and woven garment exports in IEPA beneficiaries, but increased the export values of woven garments in EBA beneficiaries by 36.3% during the post-period. Among EBA beneficiaries, duty-free imports of woven garments from Bangladesh and Cambodia into the EU increased sharply after ROO liberalization. These countries increased imported fabric from China, consistent with the theoretical prediction of ROO impacts. Thus, the impact of ROO on exports is heterogeneous across products and countries.     

欧洲控制石油消费的经验及其对我国的启示

目前我国经济处在高速发展期,陷入了极大的石油需求和我国油气资源先天不足的两难境地。1973年石油危机以来,欧盟各国纷纷采取节油措施,但是其经济也得到了良好的发展,我国应借鉴欧盟国家的发展策略。为此文章总结了欧盟的节油措施：直接节油举措;以气代油;发展核电和水电;其它的节油措施如产业结构调整等。文章最后提出了我国应该在政策上要有效地引导石油的节约消费、发展天然气产业和大力发展核能水电新能源以及要积极推动我国的产业升级和产业结构优化等几个方面的建议。     

Economic Liberalization and Conditional Volatility of Exchange Rate in Sub‐Saharan Africa: Asymmetric GARCH Analysis

Abstract: For small open economies, an understanding of movements in the exchange rate is imperative in analyzing trade and capital flows. In addition, reliable forecasting of exchange rate volatility is important in risk‐taking assessment and investment decision‐making, both of which are critical to long‐term growth. Using an asymmetric GARCH‐type approach, this paper examines the implications of economic liberalization on the stochastic behavior of the exchange rate series in a sample of sub‐Sahara African (SSA) countries over the 1970–2004 period. The results indicate that exchange rate volatility is variable, and is less volatile under fixed exchange rate regime (pre‐economic liberalization) and higher under flexible regime (post‐economic liberalization), that is, it is asymmetric. For most of the countries, the EGARCH and TGARCH models are robust to parameter stability and gives better forecasting performance compared to the standard GARCH model.     

Making EU Network Markets Competitive

Since the late 1980s the EU has made great strides in the liberalizationof network markets. This article assumes a horizontal perspective,juxtaposing different network markets while focusing solelyon the rules and policies at EU level. A six-step checklistis applied to facilitate a comparative analysis of EU regulatoryliberalization in gas, electricity, telecoms, postal services,and rail and air transport. Competition policy is discussedwith respect to: the relation between regulation and competitionpolicy; the role of the EC Court; the ‘essential facility’doctrine; defining relevant markets; and merger control in networkindustries. Finally, the question is addressed as to whetherthese network industries operate in an EC internal market. Theanswer is no. Policy recommendations: the EU defines a well-consideredoverall strategy for network market liberalization; the issueof the internal market with common regulators, at least wherea subsidiarity test is passed, should be squarely addressed.     

A disaggregated analysis of the export performance of some industrial and emerging countries

The paper describes the evolution of export shares and quantifies the contribution of geographical and sectoral specialization as well as that of “competitiveness” of some industrial and emerging market economies between 1985 and 2003. While the strong growth of emerging countries as world competitors has lowered the market shares of all industrial countries, the results of a constant-market-share analysis indicate that the latter have benefited from positive specialization effects. Specifically, industrial countries gained from being specialized in fast-growing sectors (high-tech) or destinations (Asia). The magnitude of these effects, however, has been quite diversified across the main countries. Among the emerging economies, the striking export growth of China was determined by a strong rise in competitiveness that allowed the country to gain market shares across all sectors and destinations.     

影响资本账户开放策略选择的因素——金融稳定的视角

金融稳定下影响资本账户开放策略选择的关联因素分析是目前国内外文献的研究热点。本文构建一个包含资本账户开放、金融稳定、国内储蓄率、对外债务履约状况、公众对金融体系的信心、金融深化以及消费不均等程度等诸多因素组成的系统分析框架,采用理论模型和实证方法探讨影响新兴市场经济体金融开放的相关因素。综合研究成果表明,资本账户开放在某种程度上会导致金融风险的上升。一国较低的储蓄率以及对外债务状况的恶化则会加剧开放引致的金融风险,而金融深化与消费水平不均等程度的改善以及公众对金融体系信心的提升在一定程度上都会有效增强开放进程中经济体的金融稳定程度,进而实现占优策略均衡。值得注意的是,本文提出了中国存在针对金融开放进程进行重新再思考的现实必要性。     

The road to liberalization: Policy design and implementation of Taiwan’s privatization

Among newly industrializing economies, Taiwan represents an archetypical example of a country in the process of economic catching up with institutional environments standing somewhere between Western and transition countries. Thus, Taiwan’s privatization experience may provide a means to assess the generalizability of conclusions drawn from prior research conducted in both kinds of countries. In the face of changing economic and political environments, Taiwan revamped its blueprint for privatization in 1989 as a major plank of its economic shift toward liberalization. Although it has proceeded on a trial-and-error basis, the policy has thus far yielded substantial though mixed results. This study systematically reviews Taiwan’s policy design and implementation of privatization, which originally was modeled on but later diverged from the Western experience as a result of the immature institutional settings and political compromises in various regards. Taiwan’s privatization, in a relative small scale to those in transition economies, is characterized by a set of stylized policy initiatives that provide a reference point for other developing countries.

Trade Policy,Competition and Productivity: The Impact of EU Harmonization in the Dutch Food Processing Industry

Evidence broadly confirms that European Union (EU) harmonization of food regulations can be considered as a trade-promoting and market-integrating instrument in the Single Market. However, little is known on how this particular trade liberalization measure may impact total factor productivity (TFP). One of the general presumptions is that trade liberalization has a positive impact on productivity through the effect of competitive pressures to which domestic firms are exposed. For instance, as a result of lowering or removing regulatory barriers to trade, a decline in entry costs of foreign and domestic competitors leads to more competitive pressures which have a downward effect on prices and markups and higher TFP through a better reallocation of inputs. The overall evidence shown in this paper leads to the conclusion that the impact of EU harmonization on various TFP measures occurs through a markup mechanism: more EU harmonization results in more competition (lower markups) and greater TFP growth. We also investigate the impact of assumptions relating to market structure and the production function. We empirical test and refute the assumptions of perfect competition and constant returns to scale in our sample. The analysis is carried out at the level of Dutch food processing firms for the 1979–2005 period. We extend and built upon a new database on EU harmonization of regulations in the food industry. The product classification of this database follows the detailed Combined Nomenclature classification that codes the relevant harmonization initiatives of technical regulations at the product level.