CEO Stock Options and Equity Risk Incentives

Abstract:   We test the hypothesis that the risk incentive effects of CEO stock option grants motivate managers to take on more risk than they would otherwise. Using a sample of mergers we document that the ratio of post‐ to pre‐merger stock return variance is positively related to the risk incentive effect of CEO stock option compensation but this relationship is conditioned on firm size, with firm size having a moderating effect on the risk incentive effect of stock options. Using a broader time‐series cross‐sectional sample of firms we find a strong positive relationship between CEO risk incentive embedded in the stock options and subsequent equity return volatility. As in the case of the merger sample, this relationship is stronger for smaller firms.     

Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid‐Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   We study the relationships between three variables which proxy for the ex‐ante level of information asymmetry – forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and the level of analyst coverage, and equity bid‐ask spread and depth changes around quarterly earnings releases. Kim and Verrecchia (1994) suggest that earnings releases increase the level of information asymmetry and lower the level of liquidity in the security market. Using both an OLS regression framework and a simultaneous equations model, we examine whether equity bid‐ask spreads increase and depths decrease as the level of information asymmetry increases. Our results indicate that spreads are higher (relative to a non‐event period) around earnings announcements when information asymmetry is more pronounced; however, depths are lower only on the day following the announcement when there is greater information asymmetry. Relative spreads have a significant positive relation with both forecast dispersion and revision volatility and a significant negative relation with analyst coverage. Relative depths have a significant negative relation with forecast dispersion and a significant positive relation with analyst coverage. Our findings indicate that the equity specialist adjusts both spreads and depths when confronting informed traders around earnings releases and that these adjustments are more pronounced when the level of information asymmetry is greater.     

Foreign news and the structure of co-movement in European equity markets: An intraday analysis

We investigate European equity market volatility responses to foreign macroeconomic surprises. We measure the length of the response and decompose the news effect into direct and indirect components. The latter is induced by volatility transmission between equity markets. We show that 50 percent of the total accumulated impact of US macroeconomic news on the DAX 30 and CAC 40 volatilities is attained after 90 min. We find that the news announcements have significant direct impacts on both European indices but the indirect effect on the French index is stronger than that on the German.     

The Private Equity Market: An Overveiw

The private equity market is an important source of funds for start‐up firms, private middle‐market firms, firms in financial distress, and public firms seeking buyout financing. Over the past fifteen years it has been the fastest growing corporate finance market, by an order of magnitude over the public equity and public and private bond markets. Despite its dramatic growth and increased significance for corporate finance, the private equity market has received little attention. This study examines the economic foundations of the private equity market, analyzes its development and current role in corporate finance, and describes the market's institutional structure. It examines the reasons or the market's explosive growth over the past fifteen years and highlights the main characteristics of that growth. It provides data on returns to private equity investors and analyzes the major secular and cyclical influences on returns. It describes the important investors, intermediaries, issuers, and agents in the market and their interactions with each other. Drawing on data from trade journals, the study also estimates the market's size as of year‐end 1995.     

The Impact of Mandated Cash Flow Disclosure on Bid‐Ask Spreads

Abstract:   This study provides evidence that mandatory cash flow disclosure required by Approved Australian Accounting Standard AASB 1026, Statement of Cash Flows (June 1992) was associated with a decline in bid‐ask spreads following the introduction of the regulation, even after controlling for changes in trading volume and price volatility. More pronounced decreases in bid‐ask spreads were associated with firms having lower correlations between reported CFO and estimates of CFO using balance sheet reconstructions. We conclude that mandatory cash flow disclosure reduces information asymmetry across market participants.     

Bank Relationship and Firm Performance: Evidence From Thailand Before the Asian Financial Crisis

Abstract:   This study examines the relation between bank relations and market performance in Thailand, an economy in which commercial banks play a crucial role through lending relationship and, for a number of companies, equity ownership. Overall, bank relationships, both equity‐based and debt‐based, positively affect capital investment. However, there is a negative relation between lending relationships, both short‐term and long‐term, and market performance indicating that bank lending may not always be consistent with value maximization. There is also evidence of a positive marginal effect of bank monitoring through equity ownership on market performance. Further, the relation between bank equity ownership and market performance appears to be non‐linear with a concave function. Ownership by corporate insiders is also negatively related to bank equity ownership. Overall, the findings highlight the detrimental effects of excessive short‐term debt usage, one of the factors believed to contribute to the financial crisis in Thailand, and the marginal benefit of the equity‐based relationship on firm value.     

Accruals, Cash Flows and the Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Drift

Abstract:   Several prior studies have shown that cash flows have significantly greater impact on stock prices than accruals. We examine the implications of these findings for the post‐earnings‐announcement‐drift anomaly. We argue that, if investors under‐react to earnings news, then the larger price impact of cash flows causes the cash flow component of earnings news to predict future returns better than the accruals component. Consistent with this argument, we show that unexpected cash flows are more positively related to future returns, than are unexpected accruals. Also, unexpected cash flows are found to predict future returns above and beyond that predicted by earnings surprises. Finally, we show that a strategy that decomposes earnings news into its components significantly outperforms strategies based on earnings news alone. The results support under‐reaction explanations for the drift.     

The effect of exchange rate variability on US shareholder wealth

We examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for US multinationals. Empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis, even relative to the increase in stock return volatility for other firms belonging to the same industry and market capitalization class. In conjunction with this increase in total volatility, there is also an increase in stock market risk (β) for multinational firms. Moreover, trade and service oriented industries appear to be particularly sensitive to these changing exchange rate conditions.     

Asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia

We document asymmetry in return and volatility spillover between equity and bond markets in Australia for daily returns during the period 1992–2006 using a bivariate GARCH modelling approach. Negative bond market returns spillover into lower stock market returns whereas good news originating in the equity market leads to lower bond returns. Bond market volatility spills over into the equity market but the reverse is not true. Transmission of bond volatility into equity volatility depends in a complex way upon the respective signs of the return shocks in each market.     

Economic Benefits of Adopting IFRS or US‐GAAP – Have the Expected Cost of Equity Capital Really Decreased?

Abstract:   The question of whether the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) results in measurable economic benefits is of special interest, particularly in light of the European Union's adoption of IFRS for listed companies. In this paper, I investigate the common conjecture that internationally recognised financial reporting standards (IAS/IFRS or US‐GAAP) reduce the cost of capital for adopting firms. Building on Leuz and Verrecchia (2000) , I use a set of German firms that have adopted such standards and investigate the potential economic benefits of this reporting strategy by analysing their cost of equity capital through the use and customisation of available implied estimation methods. Evidence from the 1993–2002 period fails to document lower expected cost of equity capital for firms applying IAS/IFRS or US‐GAAP. During the transition period I analyse, the expected cost of equity capital in fact appear to have rather increased under non‐local accounting standards.     

An Investigation of the Impact of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Volatility on Australian Financial Sector Stock Return Distributions

Abstract:   This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH‐M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the financial institutions sector. It was found that there is a consistent inter‐temporal trade off between risk and return over the different regulatory periods. Moreover, finance corporations were found to be highly sensitive to new shocks across the financial sector and deregulation increased the risk faced by finance corporations and small banks – effectively increasing the required rate of return and explaining the continued rationalisation of these sectors. Furthermore, deregulation has changed the fundamental relationship between interest rates and large bank stock excess returns from positive in the pre‐deregulation period to negative in the post‐deregulation period. This reflects the changing institutional environment from one of controlled credit rationing to a more competitive environment.     

Earnings Conservatism, Litigation and Contracting: The Case of Cross‐Listed Firms

Abstract:   We compare earnings conservatism of UK companies cross‐listed in the US to that of UK companies without a US‐listing. We expect that conservatism will be more pronounced for cross‐listed firms than for firms with a UK listing only, because the cross‐listed firms face a stricter enforcement regime. Furthermore, cross‐listed firms may use a listing on a US exchange to signal high‐quality reporting to investors. Using a matched‐pairs research design, we find that earnings of UK cross‐listed firms are significantly more conservative than earnings of UK firms without a US listing. Moreover, cross listed firms display particularly high levels of conservatism during the early years of their cross‐listing. This indicates that firms use earnings conservatism to commit to highly demanding reporting requirements and in doing so communicate a perception of investor care.     

The impact of news on the volatility of ESG firms

This study provides one of the first empirical investigations of asymmetric volatility for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investing. Using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) indices as proxies for ESG test assets, this study investigates volatility risk for the highest ESG-rated firms through an empirical analysis in assessing how good news and bad news impact the risk of ESG firms. The analysis provides empirical evidence in support of the hypothesis that the impact of news on the volatility of ESG firms is larger for bad news, compared to good news. Employing an EGARCH framework, the analysis also finds that, in response to bad news, the observed volatility increases for small size ESG firms is lower compared to large and mid-cap ESG firms. The findings provide evidence of a slow response by small size firms to news in an ESG context. In modeling the conditional volatility of the ESG test assets, the analysis also provides evidence of higher persistence in the conditional volatility dynamics for small size ESG firms.     

Cross-sector comovements and policy impact in the COVID-19 stock market: A dynamic factor approach

This study investigates the remarkable comovements in U.S. equity returns during the COVID-19 pandemic. It constructs a dynamic factor model (DFM) to illuminate the sources of the comovements and their implications. Using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method, the study finds that the comovements had a weak daily oscillation pattern during the pandemic. With that pattern, the study also finds significant monetary policy effects on the equity returns of several key sectors. In addition, it estimates the impact of news shocks, including monetary policy news, fiscal stimulus news, and unemployment news, on cross-sector equity returns. For any given sector, the conventional and unconventional monetary policy news shocked the sector in opposite directions. Among the positive monetary news shocks, the strongest were from interest rate policy surprises. Conversely, fiscal stimulus news had the most substantial positive impact and triggered all sectors to rebound from the bear market at the end of March 2020. Furthermore, by applying Natural Language Processing (NLP) sentiment analysis, this study sheds light on the positive correlation between comovements and news sentiment.     

The Evolution of Private Equity in Emerging Markets: The Case of Poland

In the last ten years, there has been a pronounced shift toward emerging markets in institutional investor allocations of capital to private equity. While the lion's share of the allocations to emerging markets have gone to the “BRIC” nations, lesser‐known markets like Poland are threatening to steal the spotlight. Economic stabilization, development of the private sector, a favorable business outlook, and continuous improvement of the local institutional infrastructure (laws, accounting rules, and fiscal regimes) have all contributed to the development of a vibrant private equity industry in Poland. Most private equity firms in Poland structure their deals around five broad investment themes: technology; media; and telecommunications; manufacturing; consumer services; business services; and financial services. Local private equity firms have traditionally adopted two different strategies towards these sectors. The first group of private equity firms initially targeted manufacturing, with the conviction that, as the Polish economy developed, the satisfaction of consumer needs for basic products would be the largest source of market demand. The second group assumed that the market would require access to more services to accommodate the growing local economy. Both approaches have proved reasonably successful, as the leaders among these two groups of firms have continued to succeed in raising new funds while achieving high returns for their limited partners. And while the accomplishments of the private equity industry have been made possible by the extent of Poland's transformation from a socialist into a market economy, the industry itself continues to play an important role in this transformation by providing both outside capital and know‐how for local firms and managers.     

Do FOMC minutes matter to markets? An intraday analysis of FOMC minutes releases on individual equity volatility and returns

This paper examines the 2006 to 2007 time period to determine the extent to which the release of the Federal Reserve minutes affects equity volatility and returns for 2832 individual firms. Using intraday data, we find that equity returns are essentially unaffected by FOMC minutes releases. We do find evidence of volatility effects, in that conditional volatility is lower prior to the minutes release and higher after the minutes release on release days, relative to a “control” day one week prior to the release date. These differences manifest at the 2:00–2:05 pm interval, and generally dissipate within 15 min. Consistent with previous literature, we also find evidence of both industry-specific and firm size effects in our data. Finally, we see that volatility is higher (lower) when the minutes are released after the Federal Reserve engages in restrictive (expansionary) monetary policy. Our results are robust to a variety of different definitions of the “control” dates, as well as differing industry definitions.     

Does reporting position affect the pricing of the volatility of comprehensive income?

The FASB changed the reporting policy for comprehensive income (CI) by issuing ASU No. 2011-05, which requires CI be reported in performance statements (i.e., either a single income statement with net income or a separate statement of CI following the income statement) rather than the previously allowed equity statements. We examine whether the change in reporting position of CI led to higher market pricing of CI volatility incremental to NI volatility (“incremental CI volatility”), as measured by the price-earnings relationship. We find that the market pricing of incremental CI volatility increased from the pre- to the post-ASU period for non-financial firms forced to change the reporting position of CI from equity to performance statements. The increase is more prominent for firms that switched to the income statement than for firms that switched to a separate statement of CI. Further, we find that the increased market pricing of incremental CI volatility translates into lower valuation weights on other comprehensive income.     

Volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets

We propose measures of the directional volatility spillovers between the Chinese and world equity markets based on Diebold and Yilmaz's (2011b) forecast-error variance decompositions in a generalized vector autoregressive framework. It was found that the US market had dominant volatility impacts on other markets during the subprime mortgage crisis. The other markets were also very volatile, and driven by bad news, their massive volatilities were transmitted back to the US market. The volatility of the Chinese market has had a significantly positive impact on other markets since 2005. The volatility interactions among the markets of China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan were more prominent than those among the Chinese, Western, and other Asian markets were. The major correction of the Chinese stock market between February and July 2007 significantly contributed to the volatility surges of other markets. Owing to the restrictions on foreign investment, the Chinese stock market was not considerably affected in terms of market volatility during the subprime mortgage crisis.     

The Term Structure of Implicit Discount Rates in Security Valuation

Abstract:   A reformulation of the residual income model is used to generate estimates of discount rates implicit in UK security prices. The terminal value of the infinite valuation model is incorporated into the coefficient on current earnings. By varying the length of the forecast horizon, different combinations of implicit discount rates are revealed that allow the estimation of time‐variant costs of equity. Results indicate no specific pattern of discount rates, thus revealing neither myopia on short‐term earnings nor excessive optimism on long(er)‐term earnings. Surprisingly, there is weak evidence that if any myopia exists, it is concentrated in larger and lower price‐earnings firms.     

Investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and the impact of sovereign credit ratings in foreign exchange and equity markets

We propose a model in which sovereign credit news from multiple rating agencies interacts with market heterogeneity. The model illustrates that the first messenger discloses new information while additional messengers play an important role of coordinating heterogeneous beliefs. Empirical investigations based on sovereign credit ratings, foreign exchange and equity markets confirm that rating news coordinates investors’ beliefs. Sovereign credit rating news from both types of messenger induces a significant impact on exchange rates and stock indices. Volatility measures increase in response to news from the first messenger while ex-post volatility reduces following news from an additional messenger.