The International Reserves Issue in the EMU

This paper examines the effects of the Economic and Monetary Union on demand for foreign reserves. The traditional theory on demand for international reserves assigns a pivotal role to imports. However, in a currency union part of imports are settled in the common currency, leaving no incentive for keeping foreign reserves. Moreover, the pooling of the demand for reserves in the currency union and an increasing role of a currency as an international reserve currency may also influence, among other things, the union demand for reserves. Based on estimated demand functions for reserves it is shown that the Economic and Monetary Union has reduced the demand for reserves substantially. It is argued that an enlargement with new member countries of the European Union will result in further savings of reserves. A simple calculation at the end of the paper illustrates the welfare gain associated with the reduced need of reserves in the Economic and Monetary Union.     

New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union

New Borders: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union. — We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating a gravity equation on 1987–1996 trade between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded nearly twice as much with each other as with republics in the reform period (1994–1996). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987–1990). Our results suggest that the bias towards domestic trade in the reform period is primarily a result of tariffs. We also find that past linkages, such as infrastructure, production and consumption chains, and business networks, have limited the reorientation of trade.     

乡镇工会在辖区企业工会建设中的作用研究

我国乡镇工会随着乡镇企业的出现而建立，随着乡镇经济的壮大而发展。乡镇工会与辖区企业工会存在着紧密关系，研究乡镇工会在辖区企业工会建设中的作用，改善乡镇工会的工作环境，是我国工会现实而紧迫的重大课题。     

欧盟区域政策实施效果研究

欧盟是目前各国实现区域经济一体化的典范,但其内部的发展差距也是很大的。欧盟内部发展不平衡既存在于各成员国之间,也存在于成员国内各地区之间。各地区存在着广泛的自然资源差距,不同的区位差异,不同的文化背景和种族差别,这种差别也体现在地区经济发展水平的不平衡上。经过三十多年的实践,欧盟区域政策无论在制度基础,区域划分还是政策工具等方面都是极为成熟和完善的,借鉴欧盟区域政策成熟的运行机理,对我国制定和实施区域政策,缩小地区经济差异有十分重要的意义。     

中国银行业海外并购视野的资本重组及其业务整合

始于20世纪80年代中国银行海外并购历程,着眼于国际市场布局与拓展、业务整合、资本重组,经历了业务整合的协同效应阶段、战略协同效应阶段。选择工商银行并购香港友联银行典型案例进行财务分析,证明目标企业在中长期跨国并购运作以后,产生较大的协同效应。选择9家中资银行的跨国并购事件进行事件研究,结果表明在短期内跨国并购事件将显著影响银行的股价,存在协同效应的财务效应。     

Lessons from historical monetary unions - is the European monetary union making the same mistakes?

This article examines three historical monetary unions: the Latin Monetary Union (LMU), the Scandinavian Monetary Union (SMU), and the Austro-Hungarian Monetary Union (AHMU) in an attempt to derive possible lessons for the European Monetary Union (EMU). The term ‘monetary union’ can be defined either narrowly or broadly depending on how closely it conforms to Mundell’s notion of ‘Optimal Currency Area’. After examining each of the historical monetary unions from this perspective, the article concludes that none of them ever truly conformed to Mundell’s concept, nor does the EMU. Nevertheless, the article argues that some lessons may be learned from these historical experiences. First, it is necessary that there exist robust institutions such as a common central bank and a unified fiscal policy in order to withstand external shocks. The three early unions could not withstand the shock of WWI. Another important lesson is that continuing national rivalries can undermine any monetary union.     

Military service and economic mobility: Evidence from the American civil war

How did geographic and occupational mobility after the Civil War differ between Union Army veterans and nonveterans? By 1880, Union veterans were more likely to migrate to a different state or region than nonveterans. The higher geographic mobility of veterans is likely attributable to their experience of traveling away from their hometowns while in service. Union veterans who held unskilled jobs prior to enlistment were more likely to move up to white-collar or farming jobs by 1880 than unskilled nonveterans. In contrast, unskilled veterans were less likely to become artisans than nonveterans. The differences in occupational mobility by veteran status might be explained by the effects of military experiences such as learning from comrades in the company.     

The Level of Trade Integration in the Eurasian Economic Union

This paper has presented an approach to measuring the trade integration in the Eurasian Economic Union based on the decomposition of foreign trade turnover and the allocation of nonfuel trade in the tradebalance analysis, as well as the importance of trading partners and economic dependence in integration associations. The advantages of the parameter of foreign trade nonfuel quota that characterize the interrelation of the objectives of liberalization of the economy in the model of regional integration of the Eurasian Economic Union have been substantiated.     

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚的历史背景

前苏联加速开发西伯利亚是在美苏“冷战”的国际背景下进行的，具有很强的军事目的；开发西伯利亚的国内原因是要通过调整生产力布局，以增强经济实力，为称霸世界做准备。苏联政府十分重视西伯利亚在实现全苏经济战略总目标中的作用，把加速开发西伯利亚看作是实现全苏经济战略的重要措施。     

论东亚区域合作中的美国因素和主导权问题

东亚区域合作是我国所在的亚太和东亚地区的两大机制(以APEC为代表的亚太合作机制和以东盟+3、东亚峰会为代表的东亚合作机制)之一。重视东亚区域合作是我国大周边战略的关键,但是,相对于亚太合作或亚太合作机制,东亚合作机制的建设难度更大,东亚一体化的目标更加遥不可及,主要难题是如何处理美国因素和解决主导权问题。     

Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent.     

The gains from variety in the European Union

Over the last decade, European Union members have experienced a steady increase in imports. This increase was accompanied by a strong growth in the number of imported goods and trading partners, suggesting positive welfare gains for consumers via an extended set of consumption possibilities, as pointed out in the ??New Trade Theory??. In this paper, we apply the methodology developed by Feenstra (Am Econ Rev 84(1):157?C177, 1994) and Broda and Weinstein (Q J Econ 121(2):541?C585, 2006) to structurally estimate the gains from imported variety for the 27 countries of the European Union using highly disaggregated trade data at the CN-8 level from Eurostat for the period from 1999 to 2008. Our results show that, within the European Union, especially ??newer?? and smaller member states exhibit high gains from newly imported varieties. Furthermore, we find that the majority of the gains from variety for consumers stems from intra-European Union trade.     

Corporate financing and macroeconomic volatility in the European union

This paper investigates the impact of corporate financing patterns in the European Union (EU) on macroeconomic volatility. We examine macroeconomic data for eight EU countries. We find that during the period 1990 through 2005 bank financing was positively associated with volatility in GDP, consumption and investment. On the other hand, macroeconomic volatility declined with increased dependence on market-based financing from the equity and bond markets during this period.     

The Spillover Effect of Euro Area on Central and Southeastern European Economies: A Global VAR Approach

We use the global vector autoregression model to examine macroeconomic spillovers within the European Union over the period 2000-2014. We investigate how shocks originating in the euro area affect output and prices in the rest of Europe. We examine four different policy relevant shock scenarios: (i) increase in the euro area interest rate; (ii) increase in the euro area industrial production; (iii) decrease in the euro area consumer prices and (iv) decrease in global oil prices. In general, we find that these shocks have an effect of same (and expected) sign but of different size across the European Union. Our results suggest that the response of Central European countries to the euro area shocks is almost as strong as the response of the euro area countries itself. On the other hand, our results indicate that South East Europe is somewhat less sensitive to the euro area shocks and oil price shocks.     

Crisis and Pension System Design in the EU: International Spillover Effects Via Factor Mobility and Trade

Many European Union states have adjusted pension benefits or reformed the pension system in reaction to the recent economic crisis, while other member states have postponed this type of adjustments. In this paper we study to what extent countries that responded quickly to the crisis are harmed by the lingering in other member states via international spillover effects caused by factor mobility and trade. We show that this depends crucially on the degree of labour mobility in the short run. In fact, countries with more flexible pensions can benefit from the inflexibility of pensions in other countries if they can temporarily limit immigration.     

New Borders and Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Analysis of the Baltic States

The objective of this paper is to provide evidence on the effects of an economic and political union by studying the trade flows of the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania after the breakup of the Soviet Union. We specify and estimate a gravity model of exports for the Nordic countries which enables us to determine the size and direction of trade flows in the Baltic states had they not been affected by the political institutions of the Soviet Union. Our results suggest that Baltic foreign trade was not only reduced significantly but also diverted to the members of the former Soviet Union. Consistent with our estimates, we also find that these consequences of the former political union are quickly dissipating, and the Baltic countries are increasing their share of exports to the European Union and the U.S.     

The distribution of power within the EU: perspectives on a Ukrainian accession and a Turkish accession

International Economics and Economic Policy - On February 28th, 2022, Ukraine submitted an application concerning accession to the European Union. As Ukraine is already linked to the European Union...     

珍惜和发展中俄战略协作伙伴关系

中俄关系经历了苏联时期和后苏联时期两个大的时期以及结盟、对立、关系正常化和不断提升与发展四个阶段,迄今已经成为面向21世纪的战略协作伙伴关系.这种关系本质上是双方国家战略利益相互借重的关系,在发展双边关系中,要扩大彼此国家利益的共同性,理性认识和妥善处理彼此国家利益的层次性和差异性,不断夯实战略协作伙伴关系的物质基础和社会基础.     

Did the Early A8 In-migrants to England go to Areas of Labour Shortage?

This paper analyses the local incidence across England of migration flows from the eight Accession (A8) countries of east and central Europe immediately following the 2004 expansion of the European Union. It examines not only the total inflow of A8 migrants but also the three largest nationality groups, as well as three large groups defined by the type of job they gained. The distributions of these migrant groups are related to labour market conditions to see how far migrants were attracted to areas with tight labour supply. Migrant group distributions are modelled to take into account other potential drivers such as the patterns of earlier migrant populations. Datasets on the A8 migrants have limitations, and these are noted because policy development may be hindered as a result.     

Problems of eurozone expansion to the East: Example of Poland

This article presents real and nominal convergence, which defines the conditions of expansion of the Economic and Monetary Union of the European Union; on the basis of an analysis of the financial and economic problems of Poland, the prospects of its accession to the eurozone are estimated.