我国城市商业银行跨区域经营的风险管理分析

2006年上海银行宁波分行开业是我国城市商业银行第一家异地分行开业,自此城市商业银行跨区域经营已经历了五年多的时间。2007～2008年,是城商行设立异地分支机构的高峰年。近五年来,城商行跨区域发展稳步推进,而且日益呈现"速度加快、范围扩大"的总体趋势。到2011年末,城市商业银行跨区域经营成为城商行迅速发展的重要战略,到2011年末,我国已经有相当数量的城市商业银行实现跨区域发展,近年来城商行跨区域经营开设异地分支机构的意愿也日益强烈。虽然城商行通过跨区域经营后得到长足发展,进一步提高了城商行的竞争实力,同时跨区域经营业给城市商业银行造成一系列新的困难和挑战。在城商行跨区域经营过程中出现的最主要问题之一是风险管理控制问题,2010年年末齐鲁银行票据诈骗案的曝光,更加引起人们对城商行近年来的快速发展以及跨区域经营异地分支机构设立进行重新审视和思考,特别是重视城商行跨区域经营中的风险管控问题。在此背景下,笔者对城商行异地分支机构发展过程中存在的风险进行分析,并提出城商行跨区域经营过程中对风险的管理措施。     

我国城市商业银行跨区域经营的风险管理分析

2006年上海银行宁波分行开业是我国城市商业银行第一家异地分行开业,自此城市商业银行跨区域经营已经历了五年多的时间。2007～2008年,是城商行设立异地分支机构的高峰年。近五年来,城商行跨区域发展稳步推进,而且日益呈现"速度加快、范围扩大"的总体趋势。到2011年末,城市商业银行跨区域经营成为城商行迅速发展的重要战略,到2011年末,我国已经有相当数量的城市商业银行实现跨区域发展,近年来城商行跨区域经营开设异地分支机构的意愿也日益强烈。虽然城商行通过跨区域经营后得到长足发展,进一步提高了城商行的竞争实力,同时跨区域经营业给城市商业银行造成一系列新的困难和挑战。在城商行跨区域经营过程中出现的最主要问题之一是风险管理控制问题,2010年年末齐鲁银行票据诈骗案的曝光,更加引起人们对城商行近年来的快速发展以及跨区域经营异地分支机构设立进行重新审视和思考,特别是重视城商行跨区域经营中的风险管控问题。在此背景下,笔者对城商行异地分支机构发展过程中存在的风险进行分析,并提出城商行跨区域经营过程中对风险的管理措施。     

城商行跨区域经营中的执行贷款新规问题

2010年是我国城市商业银行跨区域发展驶入"快车道"的一年,当年新设的城商行异地分行数占增设机构总数的一半.同时,2010年也是执行贷款新规元年,新规从根本上改变了我国商业银行原有的信贷风险管理模式,对于银行的经营管理提出了新要求.本文就城商行在跨区域经营中执行贷款新规的难点及对策进行分析探讨.     

城商行跨区域发展五年总结：现状、特点及问题

城商行跨区域发展呈现出四大特点：跨区域发展速度加快;跨区域发展全面开花;东部地区、发达城市是城商行跨区域的首选;东部地区的城商行跨区域发展步伐加快。同时也带来一系列问题：跨区域发展战略缺乏,跨区域发展路径高度同质化;集中进入发达地区和城市,扰乱当地金融秩序;对异地分行的管控模式缺乏,跨区域发展风险加大;跨区域发展冲击城商行原有定位,加剧与大型银行同质化发展问题。因此,建议分类管理,差别准入,进一步完善城商行跨区域发展监管政策;加强指导,明确方向,督促城商行制定清晰的跨区域发展战略;完善总分行管控模式,着力强化风险控制能力;加大人才和科技投入,完善跨区域发展的资源保障和支撑。     

城市商业银行跨区域发展现状、问题及对策建议

随着我国经济金融区域一体化发展格局的不断深化以及跨区域经济金融活动的日益频繁,城市商业银行（以下简称“城商行”）长期以来一直实行的单一城市制经营模式的弊端日益显现,成为发展的制肘。基于此,城商行对跨区域发展具有强烈的冲动。2006年4月上海银行宁波分行的成立拉开了城商行跨区域发展的步伐,随后越来越多的城商行加入到跨区域发展的队伍中。值得注意的是,在监管环境仍不完善、自身经营管理能力不高的情况下,城商行的跨区域发展也带来了一些新的问题。     

城商行跨区域经营背景下的总分行管理机制变革研究

城商行设立异地分行,实现跨区域发展,改变了以往的经营管理体系。在跨区域发展的过程中,城商行由于自身经验不足,在管理上面临着许多挑战。文章通过分析城商行目前跨区域经营的现状及所面临的问题,为城商行跨区域经营背景下的管理体制变革提供一些建议。     

城商行跨区域经营背景下的总分行管理机制变革研究

城商行设立异地分行,实现跨区域发展,改变了以往的经营管理体系。在跨区域发展的过程中,城商行由于自身经验不足,在管理上面临着许多挑战。文章通过分析城商行目前跨区域经营的现状及所面临的问题,为城商行跨区域经营背景下的管理体制变革提供一些建议。     

城商行跨区域经营之管控模式浅析

国内城市商业银行跨区域经营起步于2006年4月上海银行宁波分行挂牌,随后跨区域经营成为大多数城商行的重大发展战略。然而,城商行跨区域经营后面临分支机构管控模式的再造,原先的总支行两级管控模式亟需转型以适应新的管理体制。本文在跨区域经营的视角下,描述城商行管控模式的选择,归纳梳理国内城商行常见的管理体制和两个典型案例,并...     

城商行跨区域经营探析

<正>近年来,山东银监局审慎推进辖内城商行跨区域发展,采取设立异地分行和县域支行等方式拓宽发展空间。城商行突破地域限制,能够有效提高自身的竞争能力,推动银行体系的良性发展及目标城市金融市场的繁荣。但是,城商行跨区域发展的同时,也削弱     

城市商业银行跨区域经营思考——基于宁夏银行和石嘴山银行的案例研究

城市商业银行跨区域经营将有助于自身做大规模,产生规模效应,迅速提高自身经营效益,同时也满足了客户的跨区域业务需求。但与此同时,城商行跨区域经营后存在的隐患也引起了社会各界的广泛关注与担忧。本文以宁夏银行和石嘴山银行的跨区域经营为案例,介绍了两家城商行跨区域经营的发展现状,剖析了城商行跨区域经营存在的问题。在此基础上对城商行跨区域经营提出了有针对性的建议。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.