Welcome to the anthropocene

The paper argues that humanity's impacts upon the world have ushered in a new era that has been called ‘the Anthropocene.’ The paper argues for a number of shifts in focus in individual and social efforts to understand and deal with change. These include: becoming more aware of current contradictions; embracing insights into the state of the global system; acknowledging, valuing and applying signals of change; cultivating scepticism about the assumed importance of science and technology; exploring the potential of human, cultural and institutional innovation; and designing and implementing a range of high quality responses – especially in education. The critical role of the modern university is stressed as it is considered the one social entity that could make the greatest contribution in the shortest time.     

Globalisation and the role of effective international institutions

Since empirical research has demonstrated that a sound financial system drives economic growth and the reverse causality alone is not causing this relationship, one can well extend this causal relationship to a global financial system and also argue that those factors that are limiting stronger economic growth and financial globalisation are partly related to deficiencies of the current global financial system. In the same way that some studies have argued for the significance of high quality national institutions as a way of addressing some of the national social and economic bottlenecks and also as a way of creating the right environment for sustained economic growth and integration into the global markets, high quality international institutions with adequate mandates and effective executive power can also influence the process of regional and global financial integration. These international institutions can accelerate the process of national institutional reforms. The paper argues that a number of financial barriers limiting financial globalisation have in essence international, regional and national components and hence without a globally coordinated strategy and framework to have parallel reforms at three levels, the limits to financial globalisation may remain for the foreseeable future.     

The significance of a world government in the process of globalization in the 21st century

This paper discusses the process of globalization and analyses those pressing global issues that have been unresolved due to the lack of an integrated global system and effective international institutions. It highlights a number of global issues that require global ethics and global action. The paper discusses how a globally integrated system, with a world government, a world parliament and a world central bank as its components, is no longer an idealistic concept. The paper highlights the dynamic gains of the transformation of nations and the future of this planet, once an integrated global system is in place. It analyses the challenges overcome during the integration of the US in the 19th century and the process of the formation of the EU in the 20th century. It argues that the creation of a globally integrated system, based on new and effective international institutions would be easier to implement than the formation of the US in the 19th Century or the EU in the 20th century, as we now have technology that did not exist in the 19th century and the process of globalization has already removed many previous financial, technological, cultural, language and other barriers to integration.     

The future for technological collaboration

Technological collaboration between firms is argued to be increasing and to be an important element of corporate and technological development. Such collaboration is actively promoted by governments. It is a central element of the ‘techno-globalism’ analysis of future international economic and technology development. There are many reasons for the promotion of collaboration, but its outcomes are mixed. Collaboration may reflect industrial and technological weakness; it has a limited technology focus, rarely appropriate to world problems; its international range is restricted to the global triad; and public policies and corporate strategies may be incongruent. By highlighting the many uncertainties surrounding collaboration, this article questions the techno-globalism analysis, and raises some issues concerning the future of collaboration between firms. It argues that whatever its future, the importance of indigenous capabilities remains critical for nations and for their firms.     

Indigenous sustainable finance as a research field: A systematic literature review on indigenising ESG,sustainability and indigenous community practices

Sustainable finance research has come into its own as an established area in the finance literature. The increased awareness of sustainability and global concerns around environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues, particularly among institutional investors, has catalysed a shift towards greater research and publications in this area. Accompanying this is the emerging body of work being produced on indigenous investments and indigenous community practices. These nascent strands of literature tell a story of the shift that is taking place within the finance field. To chart this shift and create a harmonised view of these bodies of work, this paper conducts a systematic literature review of the significant nexus between sustainable investments and indigenous approaches to sustainability. We present a framework for conceptualising and characterising the various stands of literature and, in so doing, make the case for Indigenous Sustainable Finance (ISF) as a distinct disciplinary field. This paper argues that ISF is distinct from mainstream sustainable finance and other social and management sciences and constitutes a legitimate, well-defined sub-field of research in its own right.     

The global financial crisis and the evolution of markets, institutions and regulation

This paper analyses the recent global financial crisis in the context of the dual processes of market development and regulation. It discusses how, in the absence of a globally integrated financial framework, past and present regulations and interventions in reaction to national and global financial crises did not resolve the cross border regulatory arbitrage. The paper discusses how crises often lead to the emergence of new national and international institutions. It also analyses the proposed “new global framework” that needs to be in place if the policy recommendations contained in the G20 communiqué are going to be effectively implemented. The paper argues that unless international agreements are ratified by all nations and become part of national rules and laws, the presence of regulatory arbitrage and the lack of adequate cross border information and data may prevent the global economy from addressing the underlying causes of the recent global financial crisis. The paper also discusses the evolution of central banks and their new role in contributing to global financial stability. The paper argues that the recent global financial crisis has provided a unique opportunity to go beyond economic data and attempt to capture cross border financial data and other information that could assist international and national institutions to measure and manage financial risk more effectively. Finally, the paper discusses “too big to fail” and argues that only an internationally integrated financial system will make large banks global, both when operational and in the event of insolvency.     

Self-reliance and participation of the poor in the development process in the Third World

A self-reliant approach to Third World economic development provides a new orientation in development strategy. Its central emphasis is on meeting the basic needs of the poor and in encouraging them to participate in the development process. The author argues that this participative process is not only the answer to Third World problems but also a global necessity.     

A new logical model for futures research

The author argues against traditional logic based on unidirectional causality and classical physics because it has led planners and policy makers to believe that universality and homogeneity are desirable goals for society. Biological and social processes have been shown to thrive on complexity and heterogeneity and this approach to futures research should be developed further.     

Brazil's rise: Inequality, culture and globalization

This paper argues that the manifold patterns of globalization in relation to inequality can give rise to both the emergence of economic powers (again) rooted in widespread or deep social inequalities and to transversal forces—that cut across social domains (such as the economy, politics or cultural life), national borders, and social groups or classes—seeking to reinforce or to overturn those inequalities. These rising global players both represent particular historical courses toward modernity and capitalism and express in their contradictory outlook the very trends informing hegemonic globalization. These societies are fundamentally split in terms of a global/local economic and socio-cultural dynamics, which at once positions them in favor of integration and resists several of its instantiations. This further sets off a political dispute over the meaning and impact of globalization, which raises an awareness of cultural particularity and also prompts moves toward global articulations as a means to tackle inequality. The Brazilian case is offered as an example of this process: inequality lies at the root of its capitalist modernization, strongly connected to the legacy of slavery, and the recent juncture of globalization has both deepened inequality and opened a chance of fighting it.     

The weak human and the saving grace of the welfare state: German pupils’ perception of future social change and drivers of change

Social change has often been seen as a desired goal of critical pedagogy. Interestingly; there is little research about how pupils in Germany perceive the concept of social change and what drives social change. This article presents the outcome of a three year long research project that aimed to analyse how a sample of German pupils makes sense of social change and what forces drive social change in society through future narratives (written assignments and interviews). The study finds that pupils have an implicit and explicit understanding of politics and the state as a driving force, but that this is challenged by external drivers such as the global economy/technology and internal drivers such as human self-interest/egoism and insecurity/fear. In this study, the pupils often describe the present economy as being organised and the future economy to become more and more disorganised. Using future narratives in critical pedagogy can be a way to work more closely with the students and their perceptions of social change and drivers of change.     

Trends towards globalization and a global think tank

New trends towards globalization are irreversible. The formation of the basis for a global social system is facilitated by science and technology and other forces. A new stage in the development of a global think tank has been reached. An overview of futures studies at the global level shows clearly that these trends have been related in the initial stages of development, but a new turning point is appearing after nearly two decades. China's think tank has perceived that learning from the world and participating in a think tank at the global level are imperative under the circumstances of globalization.     

Prediction and social change: The need for a basis in theory

The author argues that social changes cause personality changes, and that personality changes cause social changes. This mutual feedback effect lies at the heart of the problems of social forecasting. Any valid system of forecasting requires a study of social changes ; but such a study itself necessitates an investigation of personality structures and individual values. The weak links in the causal chain of social change are the source of changes in values and the effect of values upon social goals. The author describes the limited evidence that research into values has provided, and examines critically the methodology employed. He suggests an alternative-but potentially complementary-approach and describes specific problem areas ; finally he reasserts his ultimate goal of a theory of social change.     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

Reputation and commercialism: Did accounting have a golden age? The US audit profession 1929–1990

This paper argues that maintaining the CPA’s reputation, along with a collegial professional environment, were the central goals of the American audit profession through most of the twentieth century. Matthews (2017) and Lee (1995) contend that economic self-interest has always been the profession’s goal. This paper, based on extensive study of primary sources largely unused by accounting historians, argues that the existing record is not consistent with an economic self-interest thesis. Magali Larson argued in The Rise of Professionalism that professionals tend to pursue social status and collegiality over profit seeking. Auditors worked to maintain the quiet, collegial profession that enhanced their self-image as professionals, not businessmen. But this proved to be unsustainable as the American economy expanded and a market-based ethic pervaded American culture and government in the last third of the twentieth century.     

互联网金融浪潮下城商行经营发展面临的问题与挑战

近年来,伴随着科学技术的进步,以搜索引擎、大数据、社交网络和云计算等互联网技术手段为基础的互联网金融的迅速发展,因其较低的运营成本、便利的操作服务、完善的客户信用等级评估系统和惠及面较广的需求旺盛客户源,对传统商业银行业务产生了一定程度上的冲击。城市商业银行作为商业银行体系中的重要组成部门,由于资产规模和业务总量不大、IT系统建设滞后等,必然面临更多的问题与挑战,但同时如果能够积极转型,发挥自身优势,又未尝不是一个良好的机遇。     

Life-cycle effects of social security in an open economy: A theoretical and empirical survey

Conventional wisdom views demographic change as a set of exogenous shocks impinging on social security, with the economy treated as a closed system. This contribution argues that demographics is nothing but the aggregate of individual decisions, which are influenced by social security. This claim is supported by both theoretical argument and empirical evidence with regard to decisions over the life cycle, ranging from educational effort, marriage, number of children, divorce, retirement, and effort to extend one's life. Distinguishing the effects of contributions and benefits of social security, these feedback relationships are shown to in the main hamper employment and growth, thus undermining the financial viability of today's social security schemes, with increasing openness of the economy (`globalization') exacerbating problems.     

基于区块链技术的互联网信用体系框架构建

互联网环境下,传统信用体系存在信息壁垒严重、信息交易不畅、信息安全堪忧等诸多不足。区块链技术在解决信息共享、信息交易和信息安全等方面的问题上具有优势。基于区块链技术构建互联网信用体系,并作为社会信用体系的重要组成部分,可以较好地解决互联网环境下传统信用体系存在的问题。构建包含政府机构、征信机构、企业和个人用户等运行主体的互联网信用体系框架,分析其运行模式,对比互联网信用体系与传统信用体系的差异,建议强化管理体制,发挥政府主导作用,创新监管制度,健全激励机制等,以促进互联网信用体系的构建。     

Does the “Zurich consensus” provide grounds for cautious optimism?

It is now clear that the so-called “Washington consensus”, the obsession with markets and the studied refusal to engage with global problems, is dead. The month of November 2008 may be seen by future generations as a turning point in human civilisation. While the Club of Rome has been warning for decades of the consequences of unsustainable growth, organisations like the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency have until recently supported the old market-oriented approach that assumed economic growth would solve all our problems. Now the financial crisis has exploded that myth and triggered rethinking of basic assumptions. A new consensus is emerging that recognises biophysical limits and the interlocking social, economic and environmental challenges we face. This provides grounds for cautious optimism that we may be entering a period of social learning which will allow human civilisation to survive.     

International trade in narcotic drugs: Implications for global security

This paper gives a compact analysis of the scope and limits of current anti-narcotic efforts, explaining the international security implications of an American-led ‘war’ on international drug trade. An overview of central arguments that support prohibition is provided, with emphasis on the point that distorted information about the addictive potentials of illicit substances has failed to reduce the growing number of new recruits into the drug habit. Factors sustaining the increasingly lucrative drug trade are discussed, together with the sociopolitical problems associated with the use of marijuana, cocaine, and heroin. The paper argues that the drug war is a costly failure; that it fuels social ills which sustain the momentum of drug-related crimes on a world-wide basis. The concluding section presents alternative proposals for future action on the drug problem, including legalization, domestication, and a range of regulatory measures.     

Can European electric utilities manage asset impairments arising from net zero carbon targets?

This paper develops a framework to assess the ability of electric utilities to sustain the forced impairment of carbon emitting power plants and applies it to the European market. We present a new method to measure asset impairment, for both the company and the industry, based on a database of power plants. We develop a novel framework to analyse a utility's ability to transition by investing in green technology assets through the impact on its credit rating metrics. Finally, we apply our framework to European utilities under scenarios set out by the European Commission to limit global warming by imposing net zero carbon emissions constraints on companies. We conclude that most European utilities have the financial capacity to meet the requirements of net zero carbon emissions under the scenarios with timely action. However, a delay of as little as five years could cause serious financial problems across the sector.