Testing similarities of short-run inflation dynamics among EU-25 countries after the Euro

In this paper, we introduce two new definitions of pair-wise and multi-wise similarity between short-run dynamics of inflation rates in terms of equality of forecast functions and show that in the context of invertible ARIMA processes the autoregressive metric introduced by Piccolo (1990) is a useful measure to evaluate such similarity. Then, we study the similarity of short-run inflation dynamics across European Union (EU)-25 Member States during the Euro period. Consistent with studies on inflation differentials and inflation persistence, our findings suggest that after seven years from the launch of the Euro the degree of similarity of short-run inflation dynamics across Euro area countries is still weak. By contrast, we find that EU countries not adopting the common currency, whether old EU or new accession Members, display a higher degree of inflation dynamics similarity both among each other and with Euro area countries.     

Money, expectations, and interest rates

This paper employs a model of nominal interest rate determination in a framework of rational expectations of inflation. Hypotheses are developed with respect to relative impacts of predictable and unpredictable changes in money supply. These hypotheses are tested using quarterly Italian data from 1966–1975. The nominal monetary base is the measure of money employed and one private and two government bond rates measure nominal interest rates. The results are insensitive to variations in estimation procedure and specification of adjustment processes (and even predictive functions for the monetary base). The rational expectations formulation is well supported in every case.     

Revisiting the sectoral Linder hypothesis: Aggregation bias or fixed costs?

This paper reassesses and revisits the Sectoral Linder Hypothesis due to Hallak, which posits that similar tastes for quality lead to more intensive trade between similar countries at the sectoral level. First, the measure of demand similarity used in this paper is based on the distribution of income estimated from household surveys. The paper finds that a similarity measure based on the income distribution produces stronger results than the traditionally used measure based on GDP per capita. Moreover, the country/product level extensive margin is taken into account. This is important because similarity is likely to affect the fixed costs of trade and the fixed costs of alternative means of servicing a market (i.e., licensing and FDI). Fixed costs, in turn, affect the number and average productivity of firms that engage in bilateral trade and hence the overall volume of trade. This paper employs the method by Helpman et al. to control for the extensive margin. Heteroskedasticity is addressed using a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) approach. The findings show that once controlling for the effect of similarity on the extensive margin, the Linder hypothesis holds at more aggregate levels. Other robustness checks suggest that results are not confined to products that are vertically differentiated.     

Bringing geography into the analysis of trade competition

Trade competition between two countries is usually measured through structural similarity indicators (e.g., Krugman Specialization Index). We contribute to the area of research that focuses on how to measure trade competition between two countries by proposing an indicator that simultaneously accounts for structural and geographical similarity (i.e., similarity in sectoral weights for each market and weights of destination markets). We perform an empirical analysis considering the exports from the 28 EU countries to more than 120 markets. The importance of the geographical dimension is confirmed, highlighting that applied studies may produce inaccurate conclusions when this dimension is excluded.     

HETEROGENEITY OR TRUE STATE DEPENDENCE IN POVERTY: THE TALE TOLD BY TWINS

The purpose of this study is to distinguish between two different reasons that poverty could persist on an individual level. This study takes advantage of the similarity within pairs of identical twins to separate family‐specific heterogeneity from true state dependence, where the experience of poverty leads to a higher risk of future poverty. The results, based on a four‐variate probit model, show the importance of true state dependence in poverty. When using a poverty measure based on disposable income, family‐specific heterogeneity explains between 21 and 25 percent of poverty persistence in the Swedish sample of twins.     

Exploring potential R&D collaboration partners through patent analysis based on bibliographic coupling and latent semantic analysis

The aim of the present research is to provide a new systematic methodology to explore potential Research and Development (R&D) collaboration partners using patent information. The potential R&D collaboration partners are visualised as a patent assignee level map based on technological similarity between patents by using the network analysis. The proposed framework utilises two analytic methods to measure technological similarity. The first method, bibliographic coupling analysis, measures technological similarity based on the citation relationship using patent bibliographic information. Second, latent semantic analysis is utilised based on semantic similarity using patent textual information. The fuel cell membrane electrode assembly technology field is selected and applied to illustrate the proposed methodology. The proposed approach allows firms, universities, research institutes and governments to identify potential R&D collaborators as a systematic decision-making support tool.     

Technical efficiency of European railways: a distance function approach

This study has two principal objectives. The first objective is to measure and compare the performance of European railways. The second objective is to illustrate the usefulness of econometric distance functions in the analysis of production in multioutput industries, where behavioural assumptions such as cost minimization or profit maximization, are unlikely to be applicable. Using annual data on 17 railways companies during 1988–1993, multioutput distance functions are estimated using corrected ordinary least squares (COLS). The resulting technical efficiency estimates range from 0.980 for the Netherlands to 0.784 for Italy, with a mean of 0.863. The distance function results are also compared with those obtained from single-output production functions, where aggregate output measures are formed using either total revenue or a Tornqvist index. The results obtained indicate substantial differences in parameter estimates and technical efficiency rankings, casting significant doubt upon the reliability of these single-output models, particularly when a total revenue measure is used to proxy aggregate output.     

Productivity propagation with networks transformation

We model sectoral production by cascading binary compounding processes. The sequence of processes is discovered in a self-similar hierarchical structure stylized in the economy-wide networks of production. All substitution elasticities and Hicks-neutral productivity growth are calibrated so that the general equilibrium feedbacks between all sectoral unit cost functions replicate the transformation of networks observed as a set of two temporally distant input-output coefficient matrices. This system of unit cost functions is then examined to study how idiosyncratic sectoral productivity shocks propagate into aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations in light of potential networks transformation. Additionally, we study how sectoral productivity increments propagate into the dynamic general equilibrium, thereby allowing networks transformation and ultimately producing social benefits.     

Regional economic divide and the role of technological spillovers in Italy. Evidence from microdata

This paper assesses the impact of Research and Development (R&D) efforts on production in the North and Centre-South of Italy by using a panel of 1,203 manufacturing firms over the period 1998–2003. The estimations are based on a nonlinear translog production function augmented by a measure of R&D spillovers. This measure combines the geographical distance between firms, the technological similarity within each pair of firms and the technical efficiency of each firm. The estimation method takes into account the endogeneity of regressors and the potential sample selection issue regarding firms’ decisions to invest in R&D. The two main results are as follows. Internal and external R&D have a lower impact in the Centre-South of Italy than in the rest of the country and they are weak substitutes whatever the area.     

企业中的职位晋升理论研究进展

企业中的职位晋升有两个基本功能,它们是职位分配和提供激励,但企业中的职位晋升往往无法实现职位配置的效率,职位晋升不足和职位晋升过度是职位配置无效率的两种形式。企业中的职位晋升的激励功能包括激励员工努力工作和激励员工进行专用性人力资本投资。企业中的职位晋升可能无法同时实现这两个基本功能,这时就会产生职位晋升决策的动态不一致问题,对这个问题的解决途径的研究相对缺乏而且具有明显的局限性,强制退休计划能否成为职位晋升决策动态不一致问题的解决途径是未来值得深入探讨的方向。     

Determinants of International Trade Flows in Travel and Passenger Services*

In the past decade there has been a great increase in interest in trade in services. This paper estimates the determinants of trade flows for two service industries, travel and passenger transportation services, for 16 OECD countries Traditional and more recent models of import demand and demand for export functions are utilized The empirical results indicate similarity between trade in goods and trade in services. Price competitiveness is an important factor in determining the trade flows in travel services and like trade in manufactured goods, exchange rate variations have some influence on the volume of travel and passenger transportation services     

A note on measures of distance between imcome distributions

Economic distance functions reflect differences in welfares of two distributions. The purpose of this note is to show that a class of statistical distance functions proposed recently fails to capture differences in welfares of different populations, and to axiomatically characterise a more satisfactory distance measure.     

Value-at-risk Trade-off and Capital Allocation with Copulas

This paper uses copula functions to evaluate tail probabilities and market risk trade-offs at a given confidence level, dropping the joint normality assumption on returns. Copulas enable one to represent distribution functions separating the marginal distributions from the association structure. We present an application to two stock market indices: for each market we recover the marginal probability distribution. We then calibrate copula functions and recover the joint distribution. The estimated copulas directly give the joint probabilities of extreme losses. Their level curves measure the trade-off between losses over different desks. This trade-off can be exploited for capital allocation and is shown to depend on fat tails.
(J.E.L.: C14, G19, G29).     

ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE BY THE METHOD OF PROJECTION MINIMUM DISTANCE: AN APPLICATION TO THE NEW KEYNESIAN HYBRID PHILLIPS CURVE*

The stability of the solution path in a macroeconomic model implies that it admits a Wold representation. This Wold representation can be estimated semi‐parametrically by local projections and used to estimate the model's parameters by minimum distance techniques even when the stochastic process for the solution path is unknown or unconventional. We name this two‐step estimation procedure “projection minimum distance” and investigate its statistical properties for the broad class of models where the mapping between Wold coefficients and parameters is linear. This includes many situations with likelihood score functions nonlinear in the parameters that would otherwise require numerical optimization routines.     

产品相似是技术并购的“福音”吗——基于资源编排视角

技术并购是企业从外部获取技术、提升创新水平的重要手段。然而，如何有效推动中国企业开展技术并购，这是迫切需要学者探究与回答的问题。为此，基于资源编排理论，按照技术并购中资源结构化—资源重组—资源撬动的动态演进过程，探究产品相似对各个资源编排阶段的影响。使用文本分析法，利用Python软件对上市公司年度报告进行数据抓取，测算并购双方的产品相似性数值，并利用条件Logit模型、负二项回归法进行实证检验。结果发现，在资源结构化阶段，产品相似有利于推动技术并购交易的达成；在资源重组阶段，产品相似有助于促进知识吸收，并加强对目标方资源的整合力度；在资源撬动阶段，产品相似有助于企业撬动融资环境和竞争环境以获利，并最终提升企业创新水平。总体而言，主并方在开展技术并购时，可以把产品相似作为挑选目标方的依据，从而降低技术并购失败的可能性。从政策看，政府应该加强对上市公司产品信息披露质量的监管及审查，构建有利于企业创新的竞争环境，鼓励企业积极参与技术并购，真正发挥技术并购对于促进企业创新的资源配置作用。     

Occupational and Job Mobility in the US*

We propose a new methodology to measure worker mobility across occupations and jobs in the US, building on the limited longitudinal dimension of monthly CPS data. For the period 1979–2006, we find that about 3.5% of male workers employed in two consecutive months report different three‐digit occupations. This rate is procyclical, mildly rising in the 1980s and falling after 1995. We also revise upward current estimates of aggregate job‐to‐job mobility since 1994, from 2.7% to 3.2% of employment per month. Despite extreme similarity of average levels and time‐series behavior, occupational and job mobility are only weakly correlated.     

A smooth coefficient quantile regression approach to the social capital–economic growth nexus

This analysis assesses the role of social capital in generating heterogeneity in growth processes across U.S. counties by estimating growth regressions, using the novel semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile regression method in which parameters are unspecified functions of a measure of social capital. The results indicate substantial differences across the quantiles of economic growth in the profile shapes of the coefficient estimates over the level of social capital. Moreover, the coefficient function estimates are highly nonlinear over the level of social capital, providing evidence that the growth process that links initial income, education attainment, ethnic diversity, inequality, population density, and government activity to growth varies with social capital in a nonlinear way.     

省会城市中心性研究

城市中心性的研究内容分为两部分,一是中心性指数,另一为中心性程度。省会城市中心性的影响因素包括省区形状、省会位置、省会综合实力、省内地级市实力以及省内交通结构等。文章提出了更为简易的省区形状和省会位置的计量公式,计算了我国各省的形状指数和省会城市位置指数。利用GIS软件,计算出我国各省区经济重心、人口重心、几何重心,并根据这些重心与省会城市位置间的关系,对我国各省最高级中心城市的组合类型进行了探讨。提出中心性程度的概念并探讨了计算方法。文章将影响因素及中心性程度综合考察,对我国部分省会城市的中心性作用不强的原因进行了剖析。其结论对全国省级城市经济区的组织和行政区划调整有一定的借鉴意义。     

An empirical approach on labour segmentation. Applications with individual duration data

This article proposes empirical tools to account for the role of heterogeneities in the labour matching process, and shows an application to the Andalusian labour market which relies on individual data. The central idea of the paper is that the labour market is segmented, and this segmentation can be treated empirically by grouping workers, jobs and matches into labour groups according to their characteristics. In a segmented labour market the probability that a match occurs in a particular job group affects the probability that a match occurs in a particular worker group or vice versa. We propose two empirical measures related to this idea: propensity to match, and segmentation in worker and job groups. The usefulness of this empirical framework is shown by its application to different labour market analyses. Firstly, we use a clustering methodology, based on a similarity measure, to obtain a better overview of the structure of the labour market. Secondly, we propose a measure of mobility based on our similarity measure, and estimate a regression model that relates mobility to worker and job characteristics and to the economic cycle. Finally, these tools are included in an unemployment duration model. The proposed methodology may be useful in labour intermediation by helping seekers to follow a ‘roadmap’ of successful paths.     

On the existence of optimal processes in non-stationary environments

We consider an aggregative model of intertemporal allocation under uncertainty, in which the utility and production functions are allowed to be time dependent, the random shocks occurring in each period are entirely arbitrary, and the production functions are permitted to be non-concave. In this framework, we provide a theorem on the existence of infinite-horizon optimal processes. In the course of establishing this result, we obtain the existence of optimal policy functions and we show that they are monotone in the stock levels.This paper has benefitted from the comments of two referees of the journal. Research of the first author was supported by a National Science Foundation Grant.