区域农村贫困格局的形成:空间依赖、空间分异与尺度效应

从“人地关系地域系统”视角,基于等级理论构建了一个分析框架,通过解析贫困空间依赖和分异格局成因的尺度机制（重点关注差异与关联）,来理解宏观与微观因素的相互关系。对甘肃省六盘山片区村级和乡镇贫困进行了计量实证研究,结果表明：(1)行政村尺度对案例区贫困格局及成因的解释度更好,但乡镇尺度上过程不容忽视。(2)宏观经济社会情境因素对微观上村级和乡镇贫困具有显著影响,作用方式具有多元化特点,作用强度在乡镇尺度上大于村级尺度。(3)宏观情境因素与本地因素对贫困格局的形成存在交互增强且因尺度而异的协同关系。另外,还比较了不同等级系统（行政区划系统和重新构建的贫困分区系统、地理分区系统）下的结果差异,发现行政区划系统不是解析贫困格局成因的最佳选择,它会掩盖和扭曲部分因素的影响,而贫困分区系统能更好地描述“真实的”的贫困形成过程。以上表明,中国精准扶贫战略将重心下沉到村和户是现实合理选择,但以“适度漫灌”来夯实宏观上经济基础和补齐公共服务短板在甘肃六盘山片区仍有重要意义,而各级各地政府或组织形成共同但有侧重的协作理念和方式是重要保障。同时,高效可持续的贫困治理在行政机制外尚需强化市场和社会机制。     

中国对外贸易可持续发展之贸易增长方式分析

中国对外贸易在规模总量迅速发展的背后,潜藏着众多不利于可持续发展的问题,诸如贸易结构不合理、贸易条件恶化以及环境污染破坏严重等,依靠要素投入的传统贸易增长方式正是导致这些问题的根源.因此,动态地利用比较优势原理,实现比较优势的高级化和提高竞争优势,使增长方式向集约型转变是解决对外贸易可持续发展潜在问题的根本之道.     

Global Income Divergence, Trade, and Industrialization: The Geography of Growth Take-Offs

This article formalizesthe theoretical interconnections among four post–industrialrevolution phenomena—the industrialization and growth take-offof rich northern nations, massive global income divergence, andrapid trade expansion. In stages-of-growth model, the four phenomenaare jointly endogenous and are triggered by falling trade costs.In the first growth stage (with high trade costs) industry isdispersed internationally, and growth is low. In the second (mediumtrade costs), the North industrializes rapidly, growth take-off,and the South diverges. In the third (low trade costs), highgrowth and global divergence become self-sustaining. In the fourthstage, when the cases of ``trading' ideas decreases, the Southquickly industrializes and converges.     

Growth,Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism since the Financial Crisis

Existing evidence suggests that protectionist activity since the financial crisis has been muted, raising the question whether the historically well‐documented relationship between growth, real exchange rates and trade protectionism has broken down. We use a novel and comprehensive dataset that stretches beyond the traditionally considered tariff and trade defense measures to study the responsiveness of trade policies to business cycles and price competitiveness in the time period since the financial crisis. We find that the specter of protectionism has not been banished. Countries continue to pursue more trade‐restrictive policies when they experience recessions and/or when their competitiveness deteriorates. Our results suggest that the global economy continues to be exposed to the risk of a creeping return of trade protectionism.     

对外贸易与国内地理布局

在这本书(指《空间经济:城市、区域和国际贸易》一书)中,我们将建立三种模型:一是区域模型,在此模型中工业制成品是可流动的而农产品是不可流动的;二是城市模型,在此模型中除了土地以外,其它要素都是可流动的;三是国际模型,在此模型中要素不可流动,但中间产品创造了前向联系和后向联系。当然,在本质上,它们可以混在一起。例如,借助中间产品在区域分割1中起作用。毫无疑问,在现实世界里我们的人为分类不起作用。     

我国外贸依存度分析

通过分析我国1985年以来外贸依存度的变化，比较国内东、中、西部三大地区间外贸依存度以及中国与部分国家外贸依存度，认为若考虑了我国加工贸易的急剧扩大、GDP结构差异、汇率和通货膨胀率等因素对我国外贸依存度的影响，那么目前我国的实际外贸依存度并不高。     

Heterogeneity and Spatial Dependence of Regional Growth in the EU: A Recursive Partitioning Approach

We use model‐based recursive partitioning to assess heterogeneity of growth and convergence processes based on economic growth regressions for 255 European Union NUTS2 regions from 1995 to 2005. Spatial dependencies are taken into account by augmenting the model‐based regression tree with a spatial lag. The starting point of the analysis is a human‐capital‐augmented Solow‐type growth equation similar in spirit to Mankiw et al. (1992, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407–437). Initial GDP and the share of highly educated in the working age population are found to be important for explaining economic growth, whereas the investment share in physical capital is only significant for coastal regions in the PIIGS countries. For all considered spatial weight matrices recursive partitioning leads to a regression tree with four terminal nodes with partitioning according to (i) capital regions, (ii) non‐capital regions in or outside the so‐called PIIGS countries and (iii) inside the respective PIIGS regions furthermore between coastal and non‐coastal regions. The choice of the spatial weight matrix clearly influences the spatial lag parameter while the estimated slope parameters are very robust to it. This indicates that accounting for heterogeneity is an important aspect of modeling regional economic growth and convergence.     

生态文明建设中优化国土空间开发格局的经济地理学研究创新与应用实践

党的十八大将优化国土空间开发格局提升为生态文明建设的首要任务,为经济地理学提供了前所未有的巨大需求与发展机遇.经济地理学研究人地关系地域系统和国土空间格局成因与演变规律,为优化国土空间开发格局提供了前瞻性的科学基础和科技支撑.文章结合近年来中科院经济地理学和区域发展研究团队围绕国土开发的学术创新与应用实践,重点讨论了基于经济—生态—环境综合效益和生产—分配—消费立体系统的区域发展均衡模型,阐释人—地系统相互作用的自然对人文作用的资源环境承载能力评价,基于地域功能成因理论与识别方法尝试开展的综合地理区划,以及纳入面状形态完善点—轴系统理论和利用三种功能空间比例关系表达空间结构.研究与实践表明,从应用需求中凝练科学问题、在解决科学问题中推动学科建设及提升支撑应用需求的能力,是比较合理的学科发展方式.未来,按照十八大在国土空间格局中提出的“均衡、开发强度、空间结构、功能区、格局”等主题词,持续发展经济地理学,发挥经济地理学对国家战略决策的科技引领作用和支撑作用,实现学科建设的新跨越.     

Financial Dependence and International Trade

Does financial development translate into a comparative advantage in industries that use more external finance? The author uses industry‐level data on firms’ dependence on external finance for 36 industries and 56 countries to examine this question. It is shown that countries with better‐developed financial systems have higher export shares and trade balances in industries that use more external finance. These results are robust to the use of alternative measures of external dependence and financial development and are not due to reverse causality or simultaneity bias.     

贸易成本与国内产业地理

中国目前的产业地理是在国内外经济一体化同时深入发展的背景下形成和发展起来的。本文以贸易成本为核心变量,在空间经济学的理论框架下研究了国内外经济一体化对国内产业地理的影响。通过拓展Krugman and Livas(1996)的两国三地区模型,设定国内两地区对称和不对称两种情形讨论国内外贸易成本对国内产业地理的作用,并以后者模拟中国东中西部地区与外部市场不对称的情形;通过数据模拟呈现内外贸易成本、市场规模与产业空间分布的关系。     

空间经济视角下的外资依赖与中国经济增长

外资依存度偏高是我国经济增长的重要特征.以往的研究多基于主流增长理论从技术进步的角度考察FDI对经济增长的影响,因而难以得到全面的结论.本文从开放经济视角出发构建空间增长模型,讨论了外资依赖对经济增长产生的影响.本文认为,外资依存度的提高会因收入漏出效应导致东道国经济增长偏离最优路径,但FDI的技术溢出可在一定程度上抵消这一不利影响.要准确判断影响的方向,就需要在了解外资依存度增加原因的基础上对两种效应进行权衡.     

The Pattern and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in Australian Manufacturing

This paper presents the pattern and determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Australian manufacturing since the late 1970s. The results point to a sharp rise in IIT from the mid 1980s which appears to be linked with an outward-oriented policy. Industry-level analysis indicates that industries which experienced a sharp fall in protection are the industries with the higher levels of IIT. These include textiles, garments, rubber products, and machinery and equipment. An increasing trend in IIT suggests that the short-term adjustment costs associated with trade liberalisation are likely to be lower, and that liberalisation can proceed without huge short-term adjustment costs. Using a logit model the determinants of IIT are investigated. Results indicate that IIT is positively related to product differentiation and scale economies, and negatively related to the levels of protection and foreign ownership in the pre-liberalisation period. In the post-liberalisation period, however, scale economies explain the inter-industry variations in IIT. R&D intensity and close economic integration appear to have no impact on IIT regardless of the nature of the policy regime.     

The Long-run Trade Pattern in a Growing Economy

We analyze the determinants of the trade pattern in a two-country growing economy. The long-run trade pattern depends on the structure of the absolute advantage as well as the comparative advantage, because the absolute advantage determines the terms of trade and the value of the marginal product of capital which affect the growth rate in our model. Moreover, we find that opening trade reduces or removes the difference in the growth rates of the two countries when the country lagging in the growth rate has a comparative advantage in a consumption commodity. Received June 18, 2001; revised version received July 16, 2002 Published online: April 30, 2003     

公司治理模式与路径依赖

目前公司治理模式主要有两种:“股东至上”模式和“共同治理”模式。两种模式的治理目标不同。从委托代理理论的深层原因、资本雇佣劳动的渊源、企业的企业家一般均衡模型、人力资本升值和委托人的道德风险等方面分析,我们认为,“共同治理”模式是最佳的公司治理模式;“路径依赖”决定了我国完善公司治理的难度,但是加入WTO这一外生变量的引入为摆脱路径依赖提供了大好的机会。     

创新能力、空间依赖与长三角城市群增长核心演化

城市群经济系统发展过程中,核心城市的增长极化与扩散作用是推动城市群协同发展的关键机制。创新能力、要素集聚与扩散形成的区际空间外部性使得城市群增长核心不断演化,并形成系统协同发展的内在动力。长三角城市群核心城市的极化效应呈现出下降趋势,对其主要影响因素的实证分析结果表明：创新分工过程中创新要素集聚与创新溢出、空间依赖都对城市极化效应具有显著影响。因此,政策导向应从强化城市间创新分工、充分利用创新过程的空间外部性、推进城市群协同发展的制度创新等方面着手。     

Modelling Long-Range Dependence and Non-linearity in the Infant Mortality Rates of African Countries

International Advances in Economic Research - Infant mortality rates in 34 Sub-Saharan African countries (1960–2016), obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, were...     

山西省县域人口半城市化的空间格局研究

基于2000、2010年两次全国人口普查分县数据,利用变异系数分析方法和空间自相关方法,在Arc GIS和Geo DA等软件的支持下,以人口半城市化率为探测指标,从总体特征、时空演变、空间关联性三个侧面对山西省107个县域人口半城市化空间格局进行了分析。结果表明:山西省县域人口半城市化现象显著且程度逐步加深,表现出明显的东部和西部的空间分异特征,但总体上空间差异呈现缩小态势;"一圈三群"区域间人口半城市化水平差异明显,发展趋向均衡;总体上,山西省县域人口半城市化呈现出空间正相关性,且关联程度增强;根据局部相关性,山西省可分为扩散型、极化型、低速增长型、过渡型四种不同类型的半城市化区域。