The Analysis of Rural Regional Disparity in China

Rural regional disparity has now become one of the most concerning problems in China. This paper attempts to show that the inequality is mainly caused by the uneven development of rural collectively owned enterprises (COEs). In the early 1990s, COEs accounted for more than 70% of rural regional inequality. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of current government policies for lessening regional disparity, we use a data envelopment analysis to measure the efficiency of COEs in the rural areas. The analysis shows that COEs in the eastern region are relatively more efficient than those in the central and western regions. To explain this, the potential sources of the COEs' production efficiency in different provinces are examined in detail. The production efficiency of Chinese COEs is found to be closely related to the employment of a shareholding cooperative system, foreign investment, skilled workers, and a bonus incentive scheme.     

Production efficiency and its spatial disparity across China’s TVEs: A stochastic production frontier approach

The development of China’s township and village enterprises (TVEs) in recent years is beyond doubt encouraging. However, it is uncertain whether or not this rapid development is exacerbating China’s spatial disparity by encouraging inequality of production efficiency across these enterprises. By using the stochastic production frontier model with a simple exponential specification of time-varying firm effects, which incorporates panel data, this paper aims to answer this question by examining the changes in production efficiency of the TVEs located in different provinces between 1988 and 1993, with particular reference to the spatial disparities of these changes. The findings of this paper indicate that the production efficiencies of the TVEs, on average, improved between 1988 and 1993. Furthermore, the results also show that regional inequality, in terms of production efficiency across the TVEs located in different provinces, had narrowed in the six years under study. JEL classification: C33; D24; 011; 047     

外商直接投资与我国地区工资差异的实证研究

本文对外资与工资差异关系的相关研究进行回顾,并采用1994～2003年基于地区层面(我国28个省市)的相关数据对外资与我国工资差异的关系进行研究。对地区内工资差异的分析说明,在发达的东部和较发达的中部地区,这种影响未呈现出明显的倒U型特征,在欠发达的西部地区,工资差异呈现出下降的趋势。使用面板数据变截距模型对外资开放度与地区间工资差异的检验结果表明,外资开放度的确是不同地区间工资差异的影响因素,随着地区外资水平的增加,外资对地区工资差距的影响会逐渐增强。我们认为,外资引致工资差异的原因可能是外资地区分布和产业分布不均所导致。因此,我国政府可以通过政策主动引导外资的地区流向和产业流向,有助于缩小外资引致的地区工资差异。     

Efficiency measurement and decomposition for the Chinese state-owned commercial banks at the provincial level

This study adopts a bank production function approach to the measurement of efficiency of the Chinese state-owned commercial banking groups at the provincial level from 1998 to 2003. Applying Data Envelopment Analysis and efficiency decomposition analysis, this paper for the first time presents detailed empirical evidence on the technical efficiencies of the Chinese state-owned commercial banks across both the provinces and banking groups. The empirical evidence has revealed limited effects of the banking reform programmes and highlighted the need to encourage spatial competition and corporate governance reform across Chinese provinces and to take differential strategies to further improve operational efficiency at the provincial branch level.     

China’s inclusive development strategy and its effect on regional disparity

Abstract

In 2004, the Chinese Government declared an inclusive development strategy, ‘building a harmonious society’. This paper focuses on regional disparity issues and discusses three questions: (1) What are the background, goals and main tasks of China’s inclusive development strategy? (2) What changes have taken place in China’s regional development strategy under this inclusive development strategy? and (3) What is the recent impact of the regional development strategy on regional disparity in China? Our analysis’ results show that after the late 1970s, China’s regional disparity experienced three sub-periods: a period of decline from 1978 to the early 1990s, a period of increase from the early 1990s to the early 2000s and a period of significant decline after the early 2000s. If we divide China’s overall regional disparity into four components: disparity within the east, disparity within the centre, disparity within the west and disparity between the three regions, the first and the fourth dominated the changes of China’s regional disparity in the past three decades. After the early 2000s, both the reduction of disparity between the three regions and the reduction of disparity within the east have contributed to the significant reduction of China’s overall regional disparity. This result implies that under the China-style inclusive development strategy, the recent adjustment in regional development strategy has considerably reduced the regional disparity in this huge country. However, the recent high economic growth in the inland provinces is heavily dependent on a huge input of capital, which is driven by public investment and seems not to be sustainable. To achieve a more inclusive and sustainable development, the Chinese Government and policy-makers should pay more attention to the issues of the low growth of TFP (total factor productivity) and the low growth of labour input in less-developed provinces.     

Resource utilisation Efficiency: A South African Provincial Evaluation

The objective of this paper is to analyse the utilisation of production capacity and total under‐utilisation in order to identify weak‐performing industries across the nine South African provinces. Detecting inefficiencies within the different provinces will help to identify where sound managerial or government intervention is required, which can contribute to the future success of the New Growth Path Framework and the Strategic Integrated Projects. Using a multistage data envelopment analysis model at the subnational level, several categories of production factors are explored: intermediate demand, labour, capital, as well as taxes and subsidies. The results emphasise South Africa's weak infrastructure and the failure to effectively promote stability in managing factor inputs. The results further illustrate that industry scale efficiency for water and electricity are poorest across all provinces, highlighting the current water and energy supply concerns in South Africa and problem areas associated with the National Development Program.     

Interregional transfers and the smoothing of provincial expenditure in China

Interregional transfers can smooth shocks to regional revenue and prevent spending from varying across time. This paper estimates the amounts of expenditure smoothing provided by interregional net transfers to China's provinces over the 1952–2001 period. The findings indicate that net transfers minimized the volatility of provincial expenditure by cushioning a relatively large fraction of province-specific revenue shocks. However, aggregate shocks to revenue diminished the amount of smoothing, and extrabudgetary funds increased expenditure volatility. Rich provinces were better insured against province-specific revenue shocks than poor provinces. The cross-sectional disparity in expenditure smoothing widened dramatically after 1994.     

Regional disparity and convergence of electricity consumption in China: A distribution dynamics approach

One critical factor that affects China's achievement of its peak emission by 2030 is total electricity demand. The aim of this study is to examine regional disparity in electricity consumption in China. The analysis is based on a panel database which is compiled at the provincial level. A distributional dynamics approach is then employed to reveal the trend and movement of each province within the distributions in different regional groupings. The mobility probability plot (MPP) is also employed to provide detailed information on the probability of change in electricity consumption. The results demonstrate significant divergence presents across provinces, over time and within different regional groups. The results can pinpoint the transition mechanism within each region so that appropriate energy policy can be formulated to accommodate future demand in electricity for different regions in China. The results suggest that regional specific energy efficiency policy is needed.     

Positive and Negative Earnings Surprises,Regulatory Climate,and Stock Returns*

This study focuses on electric utilities in the United States to consider two related issues. First, the study tests for asymmetric price reactions to positive and negative earnings surprises (ES). Second, the study associates policy differences across jurisdictions with variations in the cash flow effects of positive and negative ES and then uses the framework to consider variations in price responses across regulatory climates. In the same context, the study investigates the effects of a utility's abnormal profits on the asymmetry of price reactions to positve and negative ES. The empirical predictions are motivated by the disparity between the principles and practices that underlie cost recovery for the utilities and the uneven effects of the cost‐recovery practies on the cash flows associated with positve and negative ES. The results show that the sign of ES and the climate in which a utility operates are related to the size of price reactions to ES. Furthermore, a utility's abnormal profit status has significant effects on the size of price reactions to ES. Only a modest price response asymmetry is indicated for manufacturing firms.     

东北三省工业绿色发展水平评价与时空演化分析

从经济社会效益、资源利用效率、污染排放强度、污染治理水平4个方面对东北三省地级及以上城市2010—2019年工业绿色发展水平进行评价,揭示工业绿色发展水平时空演变特征。研究表明：工业绿色发展水平总体呈缓慢提升的趋势,主要依赖经济社会效益、资源利用效率和污染排放强度的改善;工业绿色发展水平提升幅度呈现吉林省＞辽宁省＞黑龙江省的分布态势,资源型城市工业绿色发展水平持续低于非资源型城市;工业绿色发展水平差异呈下降的趋势,省域内差异是影响工业绿色发展水平内部差异的主要因素,各研究单元工业经济社会效益差距最为明显;各研究单元工业绿色发展水平仍处于调整重构期,多数研究单元排名波动较为明显,仅少数核心城市和沿海城市形成了较为稳定的竞争优势。     

Provincial Output Spillovers in China： Global Vector Autoregressive Approach

The paper uses a global vector autoregressive model to examine provincial output spillover effects in China. We find that there are effective output spillovers from Guangdong, Liaoning and Zhejiang to other provinces in China, but trivial effects from Shanghai, Shandong, Sichuan and Xinjiang, and negative effects from Beijing. Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Guangdong and Liaoning is the main channel for creating provincial output spillovers, compared with domestic investment and exports. However, FDI spillovers tend to decrease, with spillovers from exports and domestic investment rising over time, so that the spillover effects in Guangdong and Liaoning are non‐persistent and highly volatile. Other channels of output spillover, such as domestic investment, should be enhanced. Impacts of shock from government expenditure on GDP vary significantly across time and provinces; inland and western provinces are most negatively affected. The heterogeneous spillover structure shows that regional policies might achieve better results than nationwide policies in reducing regional disparity.     

基于DEA-Tobit二阶段法的城市商业银行效率评价——以中部六省9家城市商业银行为例

针对我国城市商业银行效率评价方法单一且区域化研究较少的问题,利用数据包络分析超效率模型对中部六省城市商业银行经营效率进行了评价,对其结果进行了进一步的投影分析,并在此基础上,运用Tobit模型分析了银行效率的影响因素。实证结果表明,人均营业费用和存贷比与银行经营效率成负相关,资本充足率与银行经营效率成正相关。     

A new study of the Chinese regions in a neoclassical framework of models of growth

This study tests economic growth and convergence across the Chinese provinces during the period 1981–2005 based on augmented neoclassical growth models where land is included as a production input. A positive steady-state growth of per capita output cannot be sustained if the population growth rate or the output elasticity of land is sufficiently high. The study implements a panel data approach and shows that land may have an output elasticity as high as 1/3, suggesting that the natural environment indeed poses an important constraint on China's economic growth. In this study of the Chinese provinces, the panel data approach has implied much higher rates of conditional convergence in per capita output, compared with cross-section estimations.     

Productivity growth, technological progress, and efficiency change in chinese agriculture after rural economic reforms: A DEA approach

This study applies a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to analyze total factor productivity, technology, and efficiency changes in Chinese agricultural production from 1984 to 1993. Twenty-nine provinces in China were classified into advanced-technology and low-technology categories. The Malmquist (1953) productivity measures were decomposed into two components: technical change index and efficiency change index. The results show that total factor productivity has risen in most provinces for both technology categories during the 1984–1993 period. Technical progress was mostly attributed to Chinese agricultural productivity growth after the rural economic reforms. The deterioration in technical efficiency in many provinces indicates China has great potential to increase productivity through improved technical efficiency. Enhancing rural education and research and development (R&D) in agriculture may also help farmers to improve technical efficiency and productivity in agricultural production.     

我国东部地区创新资源配置效率评价研究

使用DEA模型对我国东部11个省市创新资源配置效率进行研究，研究结果表明：我国东部地区虽然有6个省市创新资源配置效率较高，但仍有5个省市效率不高，存在不同程度的创新投入冗余或产出不足。基于此提出各省市应该充分发挥资源和地理位置的优势，不断优化创新资源配置效率的对策建议，使其能够在经济转型期间以创新驱动发展并带动中西部地区创新发展。     

产业关联网络的结构特征及影响因素分析——以长江经济带为例

基于长江经济带11省市2012、2017年的投入产出表数据，利用复杂网络分析法对长江经济带11省市的产业关联网络展开研究。结果表明：长江经济带各省市的产业关联网络具有复杂网络的小世界网络特征，其中产业关联网络中的核心产业主要是各省市的支柱产业及附加值较高的产业。发展水平较高、交通投入强度大、全员劳动生产率较高的产业具有较强的产业关联水平，与其他产业的关联关系更紧密；而农业投入强度大、劳动力投入密度大的产业具有较低的产业关联水平。经济发达的省市产业之间的关联性相对较弱，且各省市的经济发展水平会减弱产业发展水平对产业关联强度的影响。     

华东六省一市文化产业效率的实证研究——基于三阶段DEA模型

应用三阶段DEA评价方法，根据2013年国内各省市文化产业的相关数据，对华东六省一市的文化产业效率进行分析测算。研究表明，华东六省一市文化产业的总体效率较高，总体高于全国平均水平。部分省份纯技术效率略有欠缺，且一定程度上受环境因素影响，据此提出相关建议有助于该地区文化产业进一步发展。     

Disparity in factor contributions between coastal and inner provinces in post-reform China

The paper discusses China's post-reform regional economic growth imbalance relative to input disparity in technology, physical and human capital. Financial sources and types of ownership are used to construct physical capital. Technology is measured by innovation investment, and human capital is constructed from schooling years per capita. The results show that domestic bank loans and foreign-owned enterprises are important in coastal provinces, while state appropriation and state-owned enterprises are important in inner provinces. Technology and foreign investment have a larger impact on output growth in coastal provinces. Human capital is endogenous for coastal provinces, but is exogenous for inner provinces.     

Local guarantees and SOE bond pricing in China

We study the changing landscape of credit market guarantees by examining the risk-pricing of the Chinese state-owned enterprise (SOE) bonds, which have experienced rising defaults across provinces from a zero record. Using primary market bond issuance data, we identify a province premium that captures the perceived local government support for local SOEs. We find that on average the perceived local government support is on the decline, while the subnational debt market has become more segmented since 2018. This evidence is found to be closely related to the divergence in local government’s fiscal space and the occurrence of SOE default incidents in the area, highlighting the adverse linkage between public debt and corporate financing costs.     

中国新型城镇化质量评价指标体系构建及评价方法——基于2003-2014年31个省市的空间差异研究

文章从城镇自身发展质量、城镇化推进效率和城镇化协调程度三个方面,构建了包含34项指标的新型城镇化质量评价指标体系,运用熵值法与层次分析法相结合的方法,对中国31个省市2003-2014年的城镇化质量与效率水平进行了综合评价。研究发现我国新型城镇化质量整体不高,省域之间城镇化质量差距明显,省域内部城镇化质量各要素发展不均衡;城镇化质量空间差异明显,呈现从东部沿海向中、西部依次递减的特征;城镇化率不能反映城镇化发展质量。根据测算结果,我国各省域整体城镇化率和新型城镇化质量指数呈现“高—高”、“低—高”、“低—低”和“高—低”四种类型,其自身城镇化率和城镇化质量指数之间的协调程度分为质量滞后、协调和质量超前3种类型,这与区域间人口迁移流动规律密切相关。根据城镇化质量不均衡状况,文章提出“高—高”型区域关注城镇化可持续发展、“低—高”型区域重点在体制机制创新、“低—低”型区域加快新型工业化步伐、“高—低”型区域关注城镇化的社会、生态效应以实现量变到质变的对策建议。