Business responses to crisis in Indonesia: the 1930s and the 1990s

This article looks at the responses of foreign business firms to crisis in a comparative historical perspective. The focus is on Indonesia in the 1930s and the late 1990s. The main approach is one of case studies in order to gain an insight into strategies of adjustment to deteriorating business conditions. For the late 1990s, such information is supplemented by macroeconomic evidence covering a wider range of firms. The article reaffirms a basic resilience of foreign direct investment in times of economic crisis even when there is an overall economic decline, as in Indonesia in the 1990s. The capacity of foreign firms in Indonesia to adjust successfully was considerable both in the 1930s and the late 1990s. Yet, prospects for a swift recovery are far better in the latter case than in the former period, reflecting the different nature of the two crises.     

Foreign direct investment in crisis and recovery: lessons from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis

Is foreign direct investment more resilient at the onset of an economic crisis and the subsequent economic collapse in a host country compared to other forms of foreign capital inflows? Are affiliates of multinational enterprises in a crisis‐hit country better equipped to withstand a crisis and aid the recovery process by readjusting their investment, production and sales strategies compared to local firms? This article examines these issues in the context of the 1997–1998 economic crisis in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and the Philippines. The findings suggest that foreign direct investment was a relatively stable source of foreign capital in the crisis context and that the affiliates of multinational enterprises were instrumental in ameliorating the severity of economic collapse and facilitating the recovery process.     

后金融危机时代我国经济的战略选择

全球性金融危机自产生以来,各国政府纷纷采取了积极的救市措施,这些措施,在一定程度上起到了刺激经济的作用。它的发生、发展、影响、应对、恢复等所有的问题,都是需要严谨的分析和总结的。本文旨在分析后金融危机时期的形势和探讨我国经济战略选择问题。     

Economic crisis: Management and innovative development issues

This article discusses the reasons for Russia’s vulnerability to the factors of the economic crisis. We propose a conception based on A.A. Bogdanov’s general theory of crisis and I. Shumpeter’s economic cycles. The concept involves crisis management as an alternative to traditional anticrisis approaches and the basis of a strategy for recovering from a crisis and the long-term innovative development of the economy.     

建设冀东经济区 应对国际金融危机

此次波及全球的金融危机破坏严重,资本市场大幅动荡,多家重量级金融机构陷入破产困境,且对实体经济产生了不利影响。世界各主要经济体纷纷进入经济下行周期。在全球经济一体化的今天,中国经济必然受到金融危机的影响。河北省作为中国的一个经济大省,如何应对金融危机是摆在决策者面前的一个重要课题。本文在科学认识国际金融危机的基础上,提出着力建设冀东经济区,来减轻金融危机对经济社会的冲击和负面作用,保证社会经济平稳运行,并打造河北经济新的增长极。     

论国际金融危机中我国政府的调控路径及对策

始于美国的这场金融危机使我国经济遭遇了严重的外部经济冲击。面对危机,党中央和我国政府作出快速反应。并对金融危机发展的趋势和我国经济发展趋势作出了正确判断,灵活、果断地调整宏观调控政策的方向和重点,出台、完善、落实应对危机的一揽子计划,使扩大内需成为应对国际金融危机的根本举措,力推国际合作应对危机。到2009年底我国率先实现了经济的总体回升向好。     

The causes and impact of the african debt crisis

This article examines the African debt crisis. It focuses on factors leading to the accumulation of the debts and their impact on the debtor nations. The significance of the study lies in the fact that the African debt burden presents a gruesome picture of hopelessness. This is reflected by the continent’s massive debt of $230 billion, equivalent to almost three times the continent’s annual export earnings. This is expected to jump to $550 billion by the year 2000. Africa’s crushing debt burden has become one of the most important factors constraining recovery and development. As the United Nations Children’s Fund estimates, one thousand people die each day in Africa because of the debt crisis. The analysis shows that due to the multifaceted nature of the causes of the debt crisis, both creditors and debtors should agree on the options for dealing with the crisis. It further shows that there is the urgency for Africa to tackle its numerous sociopolitico-economic problems. Africa can make real economic progress only when it begins to get on top of its debt crisis.     

美国汽车市场的复兴之路

2008-2009年的美国经济大衰退中近四分之三的收缩集中在住房和汽车两个领域。文章比较了美国的房地产业和汽车业的近期表现,分析了决定汽车需求的长期驱动因素和导致需求波动的短期因素。认为,鉴于美国就业和信贷增长的速度都将较为缓慢,汽油价格在未来几年也有可能再度大幅攀升,美国汽车销售迅速回到危机前水平的可能性不大。但是当前汽车的压抑需求正快速积累,美国汽车市场的复苏不可避免,而且它仍将是美国经济中期复苏的重要动力。     

产业空洞化:野田政权面对的经济困局

"3·11"大地震之后,日本国内经济产业环境发生了重大变化:巨大震灾不仅使日本经济遭受重创,而且,还带来了供应链断裂、福岛核危机以及因核电停运而导致的电力紧张。这些新的问题又与内需不足、财政失衡、增长低迷等日本经济长期未能解决的"沉疴"交织在一起,导致日本国内经济产业环境急剧恶化。此外,严峻的全球经济形势更让日本经济雪上加霜:欧债危机、美国经济复苏乏力、新兴经济体增长减速,危机四伏的全球经济环境导致日元不断升值。在上述三重压力的打击之下,是否"离开日本",已经成为日本企业战略重构的关键,所以,日本政府正在面临史无前例的产业空洞化困局。     

1929经济危机的历史回顾与理论解释

在资本主义世界经济危机史上,1929年的经济危机具有特殊的地位。它是迄今为止资本主义世界发生过的最全面、最深刻、最持久的一次周期性经济危机。这次危机的历史特点,马克思、凯恩斯和弗里德曼对经济危机的理论解释,应引起我们的高度重视。     

我国经济稳步发展的要素

从2000年至今，我国经济一直保持着高速增长态势，即便是2008年金融危机以来世界经济形势低迷，也未能阻挡我国经济快速发展的步伐。总结我国经济保持持续增长的发展要素，结合当前的内外部环境，分析未来促进我国经济稳步发展的关键措施。     

金融危机向社会危机传导的经济法与社会法组合防范

金融危机有向社会危机传导的风险。在此背景下,以增进社会整体福祉为宗旨、追求结果和实质公正,实现经济和社会可持续发展的经济法和社会法在防范危机传导中作用突出。经济法偏重于危机预防和经济增效功能,社会法偏重于修复保障和社会增效功能,二者需要功能配合。回应防范危机传导的需要,进一步在实践中沉淀智慧和过滤结晶,立基于理念共生耦合、着力于制度协调互动,加强二者的功能组合,有利于形成制度协力来达到双赢效果。     

浅谈次贷危机国际传导机制下的我国金融防范体系

美国次贷危机的爆发不是偶然的,而是长期以来美国自由化金融政策及房地产等其他因素的综合结果。按照经济全球化中的客观规律,不论世界经济是否因危机进入短周期,我们都应该面对现实找出事态发展的原因,认识危机传导的关系,把损失和影响降到最低点。本文从美国次贷危机的国际传导机制入手,通过分析其传导途径和特点,借鉴目前世界主要国家应对次贷危机的经验教训,针对当前我国经济复苏关键时期的地产风云,提出了我国风险防范体系构建的措施及建议。     

关于当前中国农村经济发展的分析与思考

20世纪80年代初的家庭联产承包责任制揭开了中国农村经济发展的序幕,21世纪的新农村建设又全面揭开了中国农村经济发展的新篇章,而在当前金融危机的冲击下,我国农村经济的发展形势如何?又怎样实现新的发展?本文就当前我国农村经济发展的现状、基本原则、策略等方面进行了分析和思考。     

Winners and Losers during a Deep Economic Crisis: Firm‐level Evidence from Indonesian Manufacturing*

What happens to firms during periods of deep economic crisis? Depending on the nature of the crisis, the general effects are well known. However, owing to data availability, there are relatively few detailed firm‐level studies. With the aid of an unusually rich database, the present paper investigates the effects of Indonesia's 1997–1998 crisis on manufacturing establishments. Consistent with studies of other crisis episodes, foreign ownership and prior export orientation are found to be highly significant determinants of survival and recovery. The effects of firm size are ambiguous. The industry in which firms are located, in particular its factor proportions, is also found to be significant.     

我国高额外汇储备的管理方法探讨

在全球大部分国家仍深陷次贷危机引发的金融危机的泥潭中时,中国经济已经率先发出了企稳回升的信号。而伴随着经济的复苏,中国的外汇储备也摆脱了2009年初的负增长,并一举突破了2万亿美元的大关。巨额的外汇储备及储备的管理都引起了业界和学术界的极大关注。本文就这一问题进行深入分析,试图寻找适合于我国国情的外汇储备的管理方法,在保证外汇资产安全的前提下,实现外汇储备的保值和增值。     

美国金融危机对我国利用外资的影响

利用外资在中国改革开放30年来的经济快速发展中发挥了重要作用,进入08年以后,由美国次贷危机引发的金融危机席卷全球各国的经济发展均受到不同程度的影响,中国也不例外。中国利用外资的形势由此变得严峻起来,但由于中国相对独立的经济体系,中国在此次金融危机中所受影响较小,中国应抓住机遇,积极调整外贸出口战略优化投资环境,调整产业结构,完善利用外资的法律法规,努力提高利用外资的质量,为经济的复苏和崛起打下坚实的基础。     

A Fabian paradise or a one-man show? How the interwar Queensland economy seduced two prominent English economists

This article tells how the two British economists Hugh Dalton and Colin Clark, came to regard Queensland in the 1930s as an enviable model of economic development. Both men were Fabian socialists and impressed by Queensland's authoritarian premier and by its array of economic controls. Clark even surrendered a promising career at Cambridge to become an economic advisor there. In turn, Queensland, and a personal spiritual crisis, would propel Clark to discard Fabianism for Distributivism. In the final analysis Queensland's agrarian socialism was not drawn upon Fabian lines but rather impelled by a mix of rural development and electoral pragmatism.     

Development Assistance in Asia in the 1990s

Aid programs in Asia have been subject to a series of pressures for reform since the early 1990s. The current economic crisis in Asia seems certain to prompt further major changes. This article surveys events since the early 1990s and updates the 1993 article published in this journal. Some comments about recent dramatic economic events in the region are made in the conclusion. The difference between donor and recipient views about aid is the main theme of this survey.