信贷增长如何影响中国的收入和财富不平等

本文基于中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据考察了信贷增长对中国家庭收入和财富不平等的影响。整体而言，信贷增长可以缩小家庭收入不平等，主要作用机制是信贷增长通过提高中低收入群体的劳动收入和单位时薪以缩小劳动收入不平等。同时，文献中所发现的信贷增长可能恶化收入不平等的机制——扩大家庭间非货币金融资产差距，在我国表现并不明显，原因在于中国家庭的非货币金融资产比例较低，这一点对于高收入家庭也不例外，且大部分家庭难以从金融资产交易中获利。信贷增长带来了各个收入组的房屋价值上涨，但高收入家庭房产价值上涨的幅度高于中低收入家庭，因此房价上涨扩大了不同收入家庭所持有的房产价值差异。考虑到家庭调查数据往往对高收入家庭的收入和财产覆盖不完整，上述结论可能低估了信贷增长对极少数高收入家庭收入和资产的影响。本文有助于更好地理解我国信贷增长对收入分配问题的影响，为相关政策制定提供了一定启示。     

Life-Cycle Portfolio Choice with Additive Habit Formation Preferences and Uninsurable Labor Income Risk

This article explores the implications of additive and endogenoushabit formation preferences in the context of a life-cycle modelof an investor who has stochastic uninsurable labor income.To solve the model, I analytically derive the habit-wealth feasibilityconstraints and show that they depend on the worst possiblepath of future labor income and on the habit strength, but noton the probability of the worst income. When there is only aslim chance of a severe income shock, the model implies muchmore conservative portfolios. The model also predicts that forsome low to moderately wealthy households, the portfolio shareallocated to stocks increases with wealth. Because of this feature,the model can generate more conservative portfolios for youngerthan for middle-aged households. The effects of habits on portfoliochoice are robust to income smoothing through borrowing or flexiblelabor supply. One controversial finding is that for high valuesof the habit strength parameter, usually required for the resolutionof asset pricing puzzles in general equilibrium, the life-cyclemodel predicts counterfactually high wealth accumulation. (JEL:G11, G12)     

Why does junior put all his eggs in one basket? A potential rational explanation for holding concentrated portfolios

Empirical studies of household portfolios show that young households, with little financial wealth, hold underdiversified portfolios that are concentrated in a small number of assets, a fact often attributed to behavioral biases. We present a potential rational alternative: we show that investors with little financial wealth, who receive labor income, rationally limit the number of assets they invest in when faced with financial constraints such as margin requirements and restrictions on borrowing. We provide theoretical and numerical support for our results and identify the ratio of financial wealth to labor income as a useful control variable for household portfolio studies.     

Saving and Portfolio Allocation Before and After Job Loss

We investigate the development of household labor income, financial wealth, and asset holdings over a 9‐year period around job loss, using unique administrative panel data from Norway. Consistent with predictions from theory, the data show additional saving and a shift toward safer assets in the years leading up to unemployment, and depletion of savings after job loss. In the years after job loss, the households' after‐tax labor income is reduced by about USD 12,500. Over the same time period, households deplete USD 3,000 of their financial assets, of which one third is accumulated prior to the job loss. This suggests that at least some households can foresee and prepare for the upcoming unemployment, which indicates that private savings can, to some extent, serve as a substitute for publicly provided unemployment insurance.     

Household response to a money rain: Real and portfolio balance effects reconsidered

In order for changes in the stock of money to lead to changes in economic activity, production and spending units such as households and firms must respond to changes in the money supply. With respect to wealth effects on households, the real balance effect on consumption is thought to be empirically small. This puts the burden on portfolio balance and labor supply effects. Labor supply is shown to decrease in response to an increase in the money supply, and depending on the extent of markets, portfolio balance effects may be nonexistent.     

The spirit of capitalism among the income classes

This paper tests the consumption-based capital asset model within the context of the spirit of capitalism. The spirit of capitalism asserts that consumers gain utility not just from consumption of goods and services, but also from the social status obtained from wealth. We examine two asset pricing models developed by Bakshi and Chen (1996) that employ wealth in the utility function, for households sorted by income quintiles. In the first model, households obtain utility from both consumption and the social status that comes from their own wealth. In the second model, households gain utility from both consumption and the social status obtained from their own wealth relative to the wealth of other peer households. Our results indicate that both models are inconsistent with the data regardless of income. However, using cointegration methods as a diagnostic tool, we find that the data are “loosely” consistent with the spirit of capitalism, at least for the upper income quintiles.     

Dynamic portfolio choice with deferred annuities

We derive the optimal life-cycle portfolio choice and consumption pattern for households facing uncertain labor income, risky capital market, and mortality risk. In addition to stocks and bonds, the households have access to deferred annuities. Deferred payout life annuities are financial contracts providing life-long income to the annuitant after a specified period of time conditional on survival. We find that deferred annuities play an important role in household portfolios and generate significant welfare gains. Households with high benefits from state pensions, moderate risk aversion and moderate labor income risk purchase deferred annuities from age 40 and gradually increase their portfolio share. At retirement, deferred annuities account for 78% of total financial wealth. Households with low state pensions and high labor income risk purchase more annuities and earlier. Uncertainty with respect to future mortality rates has the same effect, i.e. household hedge against longevity risks using deferred annuities.     

Locus of control and savings

This paper analyzes the relationship between individuals’ locus of control and their savings behavior, i.e. wealth accumulation, savings rates, and portfolio choices. Locus of control is a psychological concept that captures individuals’ beliefs about the causal relationship between their own behavior and life events. We find that households with an internal reference person (a main respondent who believes that he/she can generally control relevant aspects of life) save more in terms of levels and, in some cases, as a percentage of their permanent incomes. Although the locus-of-control gap in savings rates is largest among rich households, the gap in wealth accumulation is particularly large for poor households. Finally, our findings indicate that households with an internal reference person are in a better position to save in forms that are harder to access (such as pension wealth) than otherwise similar households with an external reference person.     

住房财富对中国城镇家庭消费的影响

在构建以国内大循环为主体,国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局下,把握扩大内需这一战略基点,激发居民消费潜力,是推动经济高质量发展的关键之一。住房已经成为中国家庭财富的重要组成部分,一方面可通过财富效应促进家庭消费,另一方面也可能由于“房奴效应”降低家庭消费。因此,住房财富对家庭消费的影响方向并不确定。本文基于2013-2019年中国家庭金融调查数据,研究了住房财富对家庭消费的影响,并检验了住房财富影响家庭消费的可能渠道。研究发现,住房财富对城镇家庭消费有显著促进作用,并显著改善了家庭消费结构,住房资产具有财富效应。进一步研究发现,住房财富能够缓解流动性约束,从而提高家庭消费水平。异质性分析表明,住房财富对不同类型的消费具有不同的促进作用,不同地区和拥有住房数量的差别均会对住房财富产生不同影响。根据本文研究,在控制风险的前提下,可发挥既有住房财富对平滑家庭消费的积极作用,促进家庭消费增长,改善家庭消费结构,进一步推进家庭消费升级。     

How important is intra-household risk sharing for savings and labor supply?

While it is recognized that the family is a risk-sharing institution, little is known about the quantitative effects of this source of insurance on savings and labor supply. In this paper, we present a model where workers (females and males) are subject to idiosyncratic employment risk and where capital markets are incomplete. A household is formed by a female and a male, who decide on consumption, savings and labor supplies. In a calibrated version of our model we find that intra-household risk sharing has its largest impact among wealth-poor households. While the wealth-rich use mainly savings to smooth consumption across unemployment spells, wealth-poor households rely on spousal labor supply. For instance, for low-wealth households, average hours worked by wives of unemployed husbands are 8% higher than those worked by wives of employed husbands. This response in wives’ hours makes up 9% of lost family income. We also study consumption losses upon an unemployment spell, precautionary savings and the crowding out effects of the public unemployment insurance program on the extent of risk sharing within the household.     

The Working Behavior of Young People in Rural Cote d'Ivoire

One of the major features of structural adjustment is an attemptto reallocate labor—and hence output—through changesin relative prices. This article assesses how price changesaffect the working patterns of young people in rural Côted'Ivoire. The analysis is based on a model of the labor supplyof rural households and on the construction of composite priceindexes. The data come from the Côte d'Ivoire Living StandardsSurvey for 1985 and 1986. The panel aspect of the data allowsthe work choice made in one year to depend on the individual'schoice in the previous year. Results indicate that the priceof agricultural output generally is a positive incentive onthe decision to participate in the labor force. However, thisresult depends heavily on the employment and education of theindividual in the previous period. Those not already workingare less likely to respond to favorable movements in the pricesof cash crops by entering the work force.     

Risk Attitude and Housing Wealth Effect

This paper examines whether the housing wealth effect—the consumption change induced by house price appreciation is dependent upon households’ attitudes toward risk. A simple theoretical model is introduced to highlight a negative relationship between the wealth effect and risk aversion. The paper empirically tests for this negative relationship, using data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey. The investigation involves two steps. In the first step, we make use of households’ demographics and their risky and liquid asset holdings to estimate risk aversion. The Heckman correction model is applied to address the issue of limited stock market participation. For the second step, we construct pseudo panel data through grouping households by their birth years and their predicted values of risk aversion, and then, we estimate the responses of households’ consumption changes to house price fluctuations by risk-attitude group. Consistent with the prediction of the theoretical model, the estimation results suggest a significant negative relationship between the housing wealth effect and households’ risk attitudes. Households, who are less risk averse, experience greater consumption changes in response to house price appreciation.     

The Effect of the Recent Inheritance Tax Reform on Bequest Behaviour in Japan

This paper examines the behavioural response of households to wealth transfer taxation using household survey data from Japan, with particular attention being paid to the implications of different bequest motives that households may have. The data reveal that relatively few households plan to reallocate the newly taxable amount of wealth to their own consumption or inter vivos transfers in response to the recent lowering of the basic deduction of the inheritance tax. Our analysis shows that this partly reflects the fact that a relatively large share of households have no or a weak bequest motive in Japan. However, our estimation results also suggest that parents with an altruistic bequest motive are more likely to avoid an increase in their children's tax bill by reallocating the newly taxable amount of wealth to inter vivos transfers than those with no or a weak bequest motive. By contrast, parents with an exchange bequest motive are more likely to respond to the tax reform by reallocating the newly taxable amount of wealth to their own consumption, though they seem to exhibit a similar response to those with an altruistic bequest motive in some cases.     

How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data

Housing is a major component of wealth. Since house prices fluctuate considerably over time, it is important to understand how these fluctuations affect households’ consumption decisions. Rising house prices may stimulate consumption by increasing households’ perceived wealth, or by relaxing borrowing constraints. This paper investigates the response of household consumption to house prices using UK micro data. We estimate the largest effect of house prices on consumption for older homeowners, and the smallest effect, insignificantly different from zero, for younger renters. This finding is consistent with heterogeneity in the wealth effect across these groups. In addition, we find that regional house prices affect regional consumption growth. Predictable changes in house prices are correlated with predictable changes in consumption, particularly for households that are more likely to be borrowing constrained, but this effect is driven by national rather than regional house prices and is important for renters as well as homeowners, suggesting that UK house prices are correlated with aggregate financial market conditions.     

The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy

This paper studies the effect of a change in real estate wealth on the consumption behaviour of Italian households, using the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth dataset. We relate annual household consumption to capital gains in housing, controlling for characteristics such as age. In line with the empirical predictions of our model, we find the oldest households—which are less affected by the higher costs of future rent—to be the most affected by increases in real net housing wealth. Younger households, on the other hand, are not significantly affected in their consumption decisions by house price increases. We also take into account the fact that benefiting from capital gains is conditional on owning housing wealth and estimate the different impacts of house price changes on the savings behaviours of both homeowners and renters. Our estimates suggest that house price increases raise consumption not only for homeowners but also for renters.     

Children's Working Hours and School Enrollment: Evidence from Pakistan and Nicaragua

Although much of the literature on child labor looks at thedecision on whether to send a child to school or to work (orboth), little attention has focused on the number of hours worked.This article analyzes the determinants of school attendanceand hours worked by children in Pakistan and Nicaragua. A theoreticalmodel of children's labor supply is used to simultaneously estimatethe school attendance decision and the hours worked, using afull model maximum likelihood estimator. The model analyzesthe marginal effects of explanatory variables, conditioningon latent states, that is, the propensity of the household tosend the child to work or not. These marginal effects are insome cases rather different across latent states, with importantpolicy implications.     

Land Acquisition,Labor Allocation,and Income Growth of Farm Households

This article investigates how land acquisition during urbanization affects labor allocation decisions of farm households in China. We develop an agricultural household model by including land acquisition to examine its impacts on nonfarm labor participation and income. Two data sets (self-designed household surveys at Xingwen County in 2012 and the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data covering 29 provinces in 2013) are adopted for empirical analysis. The results find that land reduction has significantly positive effects on the probability and the share of family nonfarm labor allocation from both data sets. We also find that land acquisition increases the household income of the land acquisition group in CHFS data.     

On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare

This paper employs a multi-country large-scale Overlapping Generations model with uninsurable labor productivity and mortality risk to quantify the impact of the demographic transition towards an older population in industrialized countries on world-wide rates of return, international capital flows and the distribution of wealth and welfare in the OECD. We find that for the U.S. as an open economy, rates of return are predicted to decline by 86 basis points between 2005 and 2080 and wages increase by about 4.1%. If the U.S. were a closed economy, rates of return would decline and wages increase by less. This is due to the fact that other regions in the OECD will age even more rapidly; therefore the U.S. is “importing” the more severe demographic transition from the rest of the OECD in the form of larger factor price changes. In terms of welfare, our model suggests that young agents with little assets and currently low labor productivity gain, up to 1% in consumption, from higher wages associated with population aging. Older, asset-rich households tend to lose, because of the predicted decline in real returns to capital.     

Labor-dependent capital income taxation

Capital taxation which is negatively correlated with labor supply is proposed. This paper uses a life-cycle model of heterogeneous agents that face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and shows that the tax scheme provides a strong work incentive when households possess large assets and high productivity later in the life-cycle, when they otherwise would work less. The system also adds to the saving motive of prime-age households and raises aggregate capital. The increased economic activities expand the tax base and the revenue neutral reform results in a lower average tax rate. The negative cross-dependence generates a sizable welfare gain in the long-run relative to the tax system that treats labor and capital income separately as a tax base. The reform, however, can hurt the elderly during the transition with a high marginal tax on their capital income.     

Wealth,Composition, Housing,Income and Consumption

The present research covering the latest residential boom and bust cycle highlights the lack of uniform or constant time invariant wealth, housing and income relations. More important, wealth composition is shown to be a significant determinant of consumption. The marginal effects of housing equity, financial wealth and income differ substantially based on the composition of household wealth. Households with the highest percentage of net worth in financial assets have much lower income effects, have substantially higher marginal effects associated with stock holdings and have housing equity effects that differ noticeably from other households. Income effects for groups with the smallest amounts of relative financial wealth are dramatically higher than for households with greater financial wealth. Wealth and its composition affect consumption.