Unemployment and Property Crime: Not a Simple Relationship

A bstract . While previous studies on the unemployment-crime hypothesis have yielded equivocal results, here nonsignificant Pearson correlation coefficients were found for theft rates and the percentage of unemployed men and unemployed women for 20 nations. This raises additional cross-cultural questions about the validity both of strain theories that predict positive correlations, and competing theories that predict negative correlations. Implications for research on the unemployment-crime hypothesis are discussed.     

Economy and Race: Interactive Determinants of Property Crime in the United States, 1958-1995

ABSTRACT Drawing upon rational choice, routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study investigates changes in rates of property crime known (reported) to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995. Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and frictional unemployment; arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR); the interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment (to test effects of rising unemployment on whites versus blacks); and a measure of police provisioning. A Beach-MacKinnon Full Maximum-Likelihood FGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is employed. Significant positive effects are established for (a) inflation, (b) cyclical unemployment, (c) frictional unemployment, and (d) the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment. Police provisioning is not found to be significant. Policy implications are explored along with future policy considerations.     

Transient Crowding and Crime:

A bstract . The effects on crime rates of the intrusion of large numbers of strangers into an area are investigated. The sensitivity of six different crime types ( murder, rape, assault, robbery, burglary , and larceny ) to density of strangers is estimated using a standard model of criminal behavior. The variables which reflect this density are measures of tourists, college students, shoppers from other areas, opportunities to consume alcohol , and the presence of interstate highway exits. The results suggest that an increase in the number of strangers into an area has a positive effect on the crimes of burglary, larceny, and robbery, but very little effect on assault, murder and rape. A significant finding is that "wet" counties have a higher incidence of each crime type than do "dry" counties. From a policy standpoint, officials who support economic growth in urban areas should keep in mind that an increase in the opportunity for illegal activity accompanies such growth and plan accordingly.     

Some Determinants of Property Crime: Economic Factors Influence Criminal Behavior But Cannot Completely Explain the Syndrome

Abstract . An empirical analysis of the property crimes, robbery, burglary and larceny, is presented for all 120 counties in Kentucky. While this analysis is based on an economic model of crime, certain sociological and legal variables are included as well in the system of equations. Overall, the empirical results support prior studies’findings with the exception that a quadratic relationship is found to exist between urbanization and each of the property crimes. Furthermore, neither the economic nor the non economic influences measured appear more important for affecting crime rates. Specifically, results indicate that the level of poverty, the degree of tourism, the presence of police, the unemployment rate and the apprehension rate all affect property crimes. In contrast, the length of sentence, the degree of industrialization, the level of public assistance payments and the proportion of youth in the county have no affect on property crime rates in these areas.     

An Examination of the Link Between Employment Volatility and the Spatial Distribution of Property Crime Rates

Abstract . Recent criminological research has produced inconsistent findings in its attempts to establish a statistical relationship between economic marginalization and the spatial distribution of crime rates. This paper contends that this inconsistency is partly attributable to the way in which economic marginalization has been conceptually defined and measured. By focusing strictly on unemployment and poverty as the processes that produce economic marginalization, researchers have ignored other important economic dynamics that can marginalize workers and provide an environment conducive to crime. Further, commonly used indicators of economic marginalization, such as the unemployment rate and poverty rate, fail to measure the full range of dynamics that produce marginalization. It is our contention that employment volatility represents an important source of economic marginalization that can help foster higher levels of criminal activity. This hypothesis is tested using regression procedures to analyze the effects of employment volatility measures and frequently identified structural correlates of crime on change in the rate of property crime offenses across 683 U.S. metropolitan counties during the 1980–1983 period. The findings suggest that high levels of employment volatility are conducive to the maintenance of higher levels of property crime in general, as well as less severe forms of property crime such as larceny, when such crimes are examined on an individual basis.     

Language Nuances and Socioeconomic Outcomes

While language enables communication, it also provides a reassuring quality more closely related with issues linked with trust, social capital, and cultural identification. Research on the role of language as a learning process is widespread but there is little evidence on its role as a signal for cultural affinity. We pursue this latter avenue of research and show that subtle language affinity is positively linked with change in socioeconomic outcome variables when using English‐speaking data for cities in the Golden Horseshoe area in Southern Ontario during the period 1991 to 2001.     

A Socioeconomic Perspective

By combining an economic perspective on financial instability with a sociological analysis of collective behavior, this paper lays out a conceptual foundation that is suggestive of a fuller understanding of speculative manias and financial panics in highly liquid financial assets. The paper argues that a collective enthusiasm develops in an environment of "optimistic uncertainty" created by the gradual diffusion of a revolutionary innovation of the type examined by Rosenberg. An adaptation of Simmel's theory of fashion in the emerging norm framework of Turner and Killian explains the swell of speculative excitement. Once started, the enthusiasm continues in a Schumpeterian manner until the objective potential of the innovation becomes apparent and estimable. If the contemporaneous degree of optimism proves unfounded and prices too high to sustain, a reversal of fortune ushers in distress that may inspire panic. A panic, contrary to implications of extant economic theory, does not necessarily follow a period of extreme speculative enthusiasm. This paper suggests instead, in light of Lang and Lang's analysis of collective dynamics, that certain objective market conditions create a panic in a distressed environment.     

基于防灾、犯罪预防及心理安全角度的国内外安全城市设计研究综述

安全问题是城市可持续发展的基础和重要前提,"安全"逐渐引起人们的重视。通过物质空间环境的规划设计提高城市公共空间安全是城市安全规划的重要内容,而物质空间环境是城市设计研究的重要对象,因此将"安全"引入城市设计尤为重要,进而形成"安全城市设计"的理念,对"安全城市设计"的概念进行了解析。灾害和犯罪是影响城市安全的两个重要因素,首先从土地利用、公共服务设施、交通网络、公共空间四个角度综述了城市设计与防灾减灾规划的结合,然后从犯罪空间分布、犯罪空间分布与空间环境结合、通过环境设计预防犯罪三个角度综述了城市设计与犯罪预防的结合。同时从心理安全的角度对城市设计的研究进行了综述,归纳总结了国内外安全城市设计研究的     

Socioeconomic inequality in health-related behaviors: a lifestyle approach

The adoption of certain behaviors—like smoking or physical activity—is recognized as a major factor affecting health. Analyzing the social determinants of these behaviors, then, should be considered an important goal, since it may improve our understanding of the more general phenomenon of health inequalities. In this paper we analyze the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and health-related behaviors among the Italian population aged 18–74 in 2004/2005. Using large-scale sample survey data and a Weberian lifestyle approach, we first identify an ordered multidimensional space of health-related behaviors, and partition this space into a meaningful set of discrete regions representing a fine-grained taxonomy of health lifestyles. Then, we use regression analysis to determine if, and to what extent, the identified lifestyles are associated with SES. Using level of education as an indicator of SES, we find that the propensity to adopt healthier lifestyles exhibits a positive educational gradient, whereas the probability of following less healthy lifestyles is inversely associated with the level of education. We conclude that, in general, focusing on health lifestyles—i.e., on combinations of multiple health-related behaviors—instead of single behaviors may lead to a better understanding of health-related practices and their relationship with socioeconomic status.     

Socioeconomic Impacts of high-speed rail: A bibliometric analysis

High-speed rail (HSR), as an efficient and environmentally sustainable mode of transportation mode, has received increasing attention in many countries over the past decades. While the literature on HSR's technology development and the assessment of the socioeconomic impact of the system has increased substantially in recent years, it remains unclear how the understanding of the socioeconomic impact system has evolved, and what the characteristics of various research focuses are. The objective of this study is to provide a comprehensive examination of the evolution of the high-speed rail literature, with a focus on socioeconomic impact analysis. Specifically, the following research questions are addressed: what is the global trend of scientific publication on the socioeconomic impact analysis of HSR? What specific focuses are uncovered from this trend? And what are the future directions of research in this field? A thorough understanding of the literature helps scholars better identify the research gaps, needs and directions for future research endeavors. In addition, it may also facilitate the decision-making for future investment in HSR through a better understanding of the potential impacts of the system.     

Crime in urban areas: New evidence and results

Crime supply functions are reestimated in this paper using data corrected for victim underreporting. It is found in both a mean-variance specification and a conventional crime supply function, which includes measures of the offender's gains and losses involved in property crimes, that certainty and severity of punishment still deter. When correction for underreporting is made, the effects on the rates of robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft of increases in prison admission rates and prison sentence lengths remain negative. This seeming support for the “deterrence hypothesis” must be balanced against the strong evidence that improved legitimate opportunities have a negative effect on crime. Use of improved crime data and a more intuitive economic specification of the offense supply function leads to the conclusion that higher income is a better deterrent to some crimes than increased punishment.     

Explaining unselfish behavior: Crime and the helpful bystander

An important force combatting crime consists of the help and cooperation that citizens provide to the victims of crime and to the criminal justice system. This paper analyzes such behavior in light of economic theories of altruism. Using survey data on responses to questions about hypothetical situations involving various crimes, the analysis provides support for explanations of helping based on purely altruistic behavior, cooperative behavior based on self-interest, and behavior guided by social norms. Specifically, income, wealth, age, and race are found to be important in explaining helping behavior.     

state Lotteries and Crime

A bstract . The impact of having a state lottery on the rate of crime against property in that state is estimated. Arguments in the standard economic model of criminal activity employed here include the unemployment rate, real income per capita, presence of the death penalty in the state as a proxy for general severity of punishment , police officers per capita, the percentage of population between the ages of 5 and 24, and the presence of a state lottery. Because the decision of a state to operate a lottery may correlate with crime rates, a selectivity model was run to extract any bias, but no such bias was found. The analysis used data for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia from 1970 through 1984. The results suggest that presence of a state lottery is associated with a crime rate higher by about 3 percent, an effect both statistically significant and practically important.     

Application of Quality of Life Indicators to Socioeconomic Problems:

Abstract . Liu has presented and applied to several categories of areas a method of estimating comparative values for measuring the quality of life. This method is analyzed and extended through an application permitting evaluation of social and economic policies for country towns in Australia. Issues in Liu's method, particularly relating to the procedure for standardizing measurements and a much-needed validation test, are examined and, it is hoped, resolved. The nature of Liu's results is compared with that of the Australian results and they are found to be similar, particularly in that the quality of life values were useful in explaining migration, and were even better in explaining certain components of migration. The study extended the method to analysis of policy choices.     

Mineral-based Growth and Development-generated Socioeconomic Problems in Botswana

A bstract . Botswana's record of economic growth and political stability stands in sharp contrast to the economic stagnation and political turmoil endemic to Africa. Its progress was based on its fortuitous endowment of mineral wealth , and sound macroeconomic management. In effect, diamond, copper, nickel and coal mining has transformed Botswana from a least-developed, rural, agriculture-based economy into one of Africa's fastest growing, non fuel mineral exporting countries The Government has forged fiscal linkages between the companies operating in the mining sector and its public revenue collections. However, no such strong linkages have been established to the agricultural sector—particularly, to remote, rural , traditional farming areas where most of the country's people live. The growth strategy has produced underdevelopment and economic stagnation in rural agriculture, as well as increasing economic dependency on the Republic of South Africa.     

Lethal Police Response as a Crime Deterrent:

A bstract . Since Gary Becker's article on the economics of crime and punishment , economists have explored extensively the possible deterrence effect of standard enforcement variables , not only for their public policy implications but to test the hypothesis that illegitimate behavior is sensitive to measures of risk and reward (loss) as well as social, psychological and cultural forces. Research has been needed on the probability of death to the offender caused by official police action—"lethal response." To measure the criminal reaction to intercity variations in the rate of civilian killings of police in the line of duty, a cross-sectional study of 57 cities was undertaken. Variations in non-homicide violent crime rate were found to be inversely related to variations in the intercity lethal response rate. this suggests the presence of a deterrence effect, a one Sixth of one percent decrease in the rate of non-homicide violent crime being associated with a one percent increase in the lethal response rate.     

Property development: British and French systems

Book reviewed in this article: Topalov, C. 1974: Les promoteurs immobiliers. Ambrose, P. and Colenutt, R. The property machine.     

Modeling Criminal Activity in an Area in Economic Decline: Local Economic Conditions Are a Major Factor in Local Property Crimes

A bstract . A multi-factor model includes economic, apprehension, seasonal a n d plant closing variables as the explanatory regressors and crimes against property as the dependent variable. Different lag structures were used on the explanatory variables such as an Almon distributed lag of a second degree polynominal nature and the lagging of the dependent variable by one quarter so that the model would more closely approximate the environment being considered. The results suggest a definite seasonal pattern in crimes against property, and the economic variables measuring local, not national, conditions, appear to be more significant regressors than any other explanatory variables.