Food aid targeting in Ethiopia: A study of who needs it and who gets it

The need for systematic, empirical analysis of food aid targeting and impacts is overwhelming, especially given the large numbers of people concerned and volume of funds allocated to the problem of feeding Ethiopia's food insecure. This research examines the efficiency of food aid targeting in rural Ethiopia based on empirical evidence from a nationally representative survey of 4166 farm households.A key finding of the study is that there is no significant association between household food insecurity (vulnerability) and food aid receipts—a result of high errors of exclusion and inclusion at both the wereda and household levels. Four factors are identified as causes of the high level of targeting error: (1) the primary beneficiaries of food aid programs are found to be households at the extremes in terms of food availability: those with the least and those with the most food available; (2) a disproportionate number of female and aged heads of households received food aid, irrespective of their food needs; (3) an inability of the food aid system to reach households outside of the historically deficit areas; and (4) a disproportionate concentration of food aid in the region of Tigray.     

Food aid and household food security in a conflict situation: Empirical evidence from Northern Uganda

It is well-established that armed political conflict has a detrimental effect on food security and household welfare: conflict induces food insecurity by reducing own food production, access to food through the market, and various other resources to sustain healthy and productive lives. One way of mitigating these adverse effects is to provide food aid. In this study we evaluate the impact of a World Food Programme intervention on household food security and asset protection among conflict-affected households in Northern Uganda. We employ propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on food expenditure, food consumption and preservation of assets using a sample of 1265 observations from a 2008 survey. Our results reveal that the operation’s system of targeting beneficiaries was effective and in accordance with programme objectives. Food aid considerably reduced food expenditure of households, suggesting that recipients were net buyers of food, and that the food aid received was effectively consumed within the household. A corresponding positive effect on non-food expenditure was not found. Our results also indicate that food aid was effective in increasing meals consumed and in avoiding distress destocking of low value assets, but, surprisingly, only for male headed households.     

Gendered impacts of the 2007–2008 food price crisis: Evidence using panel data from rural Ethiopia

This paper provides empirical evidence on the gendered impact of the 2007–2008 food price crisis using panel data on 1400 households from rural Ethiopia that were initially surveyed before the onset of the crisis, in 1994–1995, 1997, and 2004, and after food prices spiked, in 2009. It investigates whether female-headed households are more likely to report experiencing a food price shock, and whether female-headed households experiencing a shock are more (or less) likely to adopt certain coping strategies, controlling for individual, household, and community characteristics. Our findings suggest that female-headed households are more vulnerable to food price changes and are more likely to have experienced a food price shock in 2007–2008. Because female-headed households are also resource poor and have a larger food gap compared with male-headed households, they cope by cutting back on the number of meals they provide their households during good months and eating less preferred foods in general. A combination of short-term measures to protect diet diversity and micronutrient consumption of vulnerable groups and longer-term measures to promote investment in sustainable agriculture, such as strengthening women’s property rights, may increase the ability of poor and vulnerable households to cope better with food price increases.     

Cash transfers and nutrition: The role of market isolation after weather shocks

Cash transfers are a widely used policy instrument in Sub-Saharan Africa to shield vulnerable populations from malnutrition. In this paper, we focus on the role of local food markets after weather shocks as a facilitating factor for program impacts on nutrition. As food prices tend to be negatively correlated with households’ own production in isolated markets, we expect the purchasing power of cash transfers to decrease after harvest failures in such markets. To test this, we analyze the impact of Kenya’s Hunger Safety Net Programme during the 2011 drought in the Horn of Africa, considering the impacts on food consumption and the availability of macro- and micro-nutrients at the household level. We particularly focus on heterogeneous program impacts depending on the exposure to the drought, measured with satellite imagery, and impacts depending on the isolation of local food markets, approximated by price differences between community and wholesale maize prices. Our findings indicate that, despite some encouraging effects on proxy indicators, the program does not have significant impacts on nutrient availability on average. However, we do observe significant positive impacts for drought affected households in less isolated communities.     

Advancing a new index for measuring household vulnerability to food insecurity

This paper develops a Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index (VFII). Currently, there is no standard indicator of vulnerability analysis in food security research, and this paper responds to this challenge. The primary objective in this paper is to demonstrate how to develop a potential indicator and establish its validity through comparison with other traditional food security indicators, such as per capita calorie consumption (PCC), food consumption score (FCS) and the coping strategy index (CPI). Structurally, Vulnerability to Food Insecurity Index is a multidimensional index of the probability of covariate shock occurring (exposure), the accumulative experience of food insecurity (sensitivity) and coping ability of households (adaptive capacity). The paper applies the index to households in southern Nigeria, using the World Bank’s generalised household panel dataset. The results show 61% of households in the study to be highly vulnerable to food insecurity, 12% mildly vulnerable and 27% not vulnerable. Traditional and single indicators, such as FCS and PCC are not good indicators of vulnerability to food insecurity whereas CPI is a better indicator of vulnerability to food insecurity compared to FCS and PCC. The VFII developed in this paper includes components of FCS, PCC, and CPI and regarding ranking, the VFII was found to be reliable. Most importantly, the analysis using the VFII reveals how dietary diversity or calorie consumption indicators can exclude some households who are vulnerable to food insecurity. The paper concluded that accurately target long-term support to vulnerable households, policymakers who seek to address the underlying causes of food insecurity cannot rely on single indicators, and for this type of goal, the VFII makes a useful contribution.     

Cash vs. in-kind transfers: Indian data meets theory

This paper uses qualitative and quantitative data from a survey of over 1200 rural households in nine Indian states to explore the arguments for and against cash and in-kind (in this case, food) transfers. When respondents were asked to think about, argue, and ‘choose’ between the two, two-thirds of the respondents expressed a preference for food. Rather than the choice made by respondents, the focus here is on understanding the reasons behind their choice, as explained by beneficiaries themselves. Two main findings emerge. First, some arguments corroborate existing theory (e.g., paternalism, fungibility), but others (e.g., self-control, transition costs) are not incorporated in existing theory on the advantages of in-kind transfers. Second, context is important. Most importantly, respondents’ reported preferences were associated with the benefits they were experiencing under the status quo: where the PDS performed better at distributing food, respondents were more likely to report preferring food to cash transfers. The contention of traditional theory that cash is superior fails to factor in contextual concerns.     

Household telecommunications expenditure in Australia

Using a mix of survey data from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey and the Household Expenditure Survey, we examine the changing nature of telecommunications expenditure in Australia in the period 2006–2015. We show that it behaves like a core necessity such as food. Households with youth or young adults spend more on telecommunications than other households. The elderly and disadvantaged groups spend less. We propose measures to identify low-income households with relatively high or relatively low expenditure on telecommunications. These measures can be used to identify households that potentially have “telecommunications inadequacy” or “unsustainable telecommunications expenditure”.     

From paper to plastic: Understanding the impact of eWIC on WIC recipient behavior

Evidence shows that the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) is underutilized. WIC enrolls 52.7% of eligible persons and participants claim a fraction of available benefits. Researchers suggest that people underutilize WIC because of the time needed to enroll in and use WIC and because participants may believe that, if others notice them participating in WIC, community members will stigmatize them. Recently enacted policies may reduce both time costs and potential for stigma associated with WIC. Congress mandated that, by 2020, all states disburse WIC benefits through an Electronic Benefits Transfer (eWIC) system. Given that eWIC reduces the time required for each transaction and and makes it more difficult to identify beneficiaries, we expect WIC redemptions to increase. In addition, eWIC might also increase the chance WIC recipients choose non-WIC foods for redemption increasing non-WIC expenditures. To measure the impact of eWIC on WIC redemptions and non-WIC food expenditures we analyze data on grocery expenditures of 11,887 WIC-participating households in one state over the period it implemented eWIC. We find that, after beneficiaries began redeeming WIC benefits through eWIC, spending on non-WIC eligible foods did not change but redemptions of WIC benefits increased.     

Does food retail access moderate the impact of fruit and vegetable incentives for SNAP participants? Evidence from western Massachusetts

ObjectivesThis study investigates whether the response of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participants to a 30% incentive on fruit and vegetable spending varies with their access to food retailers.MethodsThe analysis exploits the random assignment of SNAP households in Hampden County, MA, to an intervention group that earned the incentive. Regression models for the impact of the incentive are augmented with measures of food retail access and interactions of random assignment status with food retail access. The main outcome—use of the SNAP benefit—is based on Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT) card transaction records.ResultsAlthough households that lived within a mile of a participating supermarket spent approximately $2.13 or 19% more per month on targeted fruits and vegetables at participating supermarkets than households that did not live within a mile of a participating supermarket, we found no evidence that the impact of the incentive on SNAP fruit and vegetable spending varies with distance to retailers.ConclusionsThese findings imply that incentives to purchase fruits and vegetables were equally efficacious for SNAP households with high and low access to food retailers.     

A welfare measure of consumer vulnerability to rising prices of food imports in the UAE

The recent and expected continuing rise in food prices has re-ignited concern and discussion in the United Arab Emirates about the country’s vulnerability to food supply shocks. Defining vulnerability as the compensating variation relative to household income, we find that although UAE households in the lowest income quintile spend on food on average less than a quarter of what households in the highest income quintile spend, the former are 3.5 times more vulnerable to rising prices of food imports than the latter.     

Policies for African seed enterprise development

The commercial seed sector has been slow to develop in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper examines the major impediments and identifies areas in which seed policies can be strengthened. Seed enterprise development has been hampered by regulatory frameworks that favor parastatal enterprises and that inhibit commercial innovation. In addition, government and donor projects provide large amounts of free or subsidized seed that further discourages seed enterprise development. In addition to regulatory reform and the curtailment of many seed distribution projects, there are other policy changes that need to be implemented. National agricultural research institutes need to invest more resources in promoting their varieties and helping to stimulate commercial seed production. Greater emphasis is required on regional strategies for public plant breeding and private seed marketing. National policies need to strengthen input marketing capacity and infrastructure. Finally, donors, governments and NGOs should shift from trying to encourage village-level commercial seed production and instead strengthen farmers’ capacities to assess new varieties and to be effective consumers of commercial inputs.     

Indigenous Shawi communities and national food security support: Right direction,but not enough

Food insecurity is a major challenge facing Peru’s Indigenous Shawi communities, who receive food support through national level programs. There is limited research, however, on how national food and social programming support is perceived, received and used among Indigenous communities. We address this research gap by characterizing the preferred diet and coping mechanisms among Shawi Indigenous households, and investigating community perspectives on the national food program and national social supports. We used a mixed methods approach, including a quantitative survey among eleven Shawi communities in the Peruvian Amazon (n = 177 households), and semi-structured interviews with key informants (n = 24). We found that national food programs in Peru rarely provide foods that are desired and preferred among the Shawi, particularly familiar and locally-sourced protein sources such as bushmeat and fish. Food and social programming requirements do not integrate consideration of the remoteness of many vulnerable households, and are considered culturally or linguistically inaccessible to many families. In some cases, foods supplied by national programs are not consumed as they are perceived as unfamiliar. Key opportunities to improve food and social programing include: monitoring and revising eligibility requirements for remote and highly vulnerable households; increasing provision of locally-preferred protein food and familiar food types; avoiding use of written Spanish as a sole source of information to support programming; extending food provision outside of school months; developing contingency plans during education sector strikes; considering hiring of staff with working knowledge of local languages for community distributions; using visual or oral communication rather than written communication to increase accessibility of programs; increasing knowledge on the use and nutritional value of external food; and considering exemptions to school and health eligibility requirements during the rainy season and during sector strikes. Nationally-developed programming that does not consider Indigenous and cultural contexts risks inefficiency, limited improvement of health outcomes, and the potential to increase inequities in Indigenous health.     

Food price surges and poverty in urban Colombia: New evidence from household survey data

The present study simulates the impacts of price surges in 2006–2008 on poverty in the main Colombian cities drawing upon household survey data. It is found that the price surges increased both extreme and moderate poverty in urban areas, but the magnitude of poverty rise was not homogeneous across geographical locations or in terms of household characteristics, such as, education or gender of the household head. As a policy option we suggest “geographical targeting” or “demographic targeting” that will select and support poor households by locations or socio-demographic characteristics guided by the degree of household vulnerability to food price shocks.     

Adoption of improved wheat varieties and impacts on household food security in Ethiopia

This article evaluates the impact of the adoption of improved wheat varieties on food security using a recent nationally-representative dataset of over 2000 farm households in Ethiopia. We adopted endogenous switching regression treatment effects complemented with a binary propensity score matching methodology to test robustness and reduced selection bias stemming from both observed and unobserved characteristics. We expand this further with the generalized propensity score (GPS) approach to evaluate the effects of continuous treatment on the response of the outcome variables. We find a consistent result across models indicating that adoption increases food security and farm households that did adopt would also have benefited significantly had they adopted new varieties. This study supports the need for vital investments in agricultural research for major food staples widely consumed by the poor, and efforts to improve access to modern varieties and services. Policies that enhance diffusion and adoption of modern wheat varieties should be central to food security strategies in Ethiopia.     

Alternatives to calorie-based indicators of food security: An application of machine learning methods

Identifying food insecure households in an accurate and cost-effective way is important for targeted food policy interventions. Since predictive accuracy depends partly on which indicators are used to identify food insecure households, it is important to assess the performance of indicators that are relatively easy and inexpensive to collect yet can proxy for the “gold standard” food security indicator, calorie intake. We study the effectiveness of different variable combinations and methods in predicting calorie-based food security among poor households and communities in rural Bangladesh. We use basic household information as a benchmark set for predicting calorie-based food security. We then assess the gain in predictive power obtained by adding subjective food security indicators (e.g., self-reported days without sufficient food), the dietary diversity score (DDS), and the combination of both sets to our model of calorie-based food security. We apply machine learning as well as traditional econometric methods in estimation. We find that the overall predictive accuracy rises from 63% to 69% when we add the subjective and DDS sets to the benchmark set. Our study demonstrates that while alternative indicators and methods are not always accurate in predicting calorie intake, DDS related indicators do improve accuracy compared to a simple benchmark set.     

Consumer acceptability of yellow maize products in Zimbabwe

This study analyzes consumers’ awareness of and attitudes towards yellow maize products in Zimbabwe and suggests intervention strategies that will ensure increased production and consumption of the crop, which is rich in provitamin A to help prevent the incidence of vitamin A deficiency prevalent among vulnerable groups. Data from 360 randomly selected rural and urban households show that yellow maize is known to all but few are aware of its nutritional qualities or consume it. The main source of supply is imported food aid. Rich in oils, carotenoids and fructose, yellow maize easily undergoes chemical changes to produce unacceptable organoleptic properties (or bad taste) if poorly handled during importation. These two factors are responsible for it being perceived inferior to white maize by consumers. Quality assurance during importation can improve consumer confidence but a long-term strategy will be to vigorously promote domestic production of yellow maize varieties rich in high levels of β-carotene that meet the preferences of consumers. Drawing from a probit model regression analysis, nutritional education can potentially promote yellow maize consumption, especially if targeted at low income households. Domestic production and consumption of yellow maize will decrease vitamin A deficiency among vulnerable groups and improve food insecurity through reduced grain prices and increased incomes for farmers. These results draw attention to the need for policy makers in developing countries to review their agricultural policies to ensure that they do not undermine the local production and consumption of nutritionally valuable crops.     

Rice market integration and food security in Nepal: The role of cross-border trade with India

Coarse rice market integration between Nepal and India is analyzed applying a threshold autoregressive model. The price response behaviour of traders is found to be consistent with an asymmetric price adjustment mechanism, indicating coarse rice prices in Nepal respond to shocks originating in India. The results show that adjustments to negative price deviations from long-run stable equilibrium are faster than adjustments to the positive ones given a null threshold. Given that trade flows mainly from India to Nepal, Nepali traders would adjust their prices upward to align with the long-run equilibrium value relatively more quickly in the case of negative price deviations, than if the price deviations were positive. Such a high speed of adjustment to negative price deviations could be detrimental to net food buyers’ food security status in the absence of a price stabilization mechanism. However, a price stabilization policy in Nepal, a food deficit and import dependent country, would hardly have any effect on prices unless further effort is made to build up the level of national food reserves for short-term food security interventions. In the current context of structurally low levels of national food reserves, an alternative short-term policy such as foreign aid, in the form of food or income transfers, targeting the most vulnerable households to price increases is necessary through social safety net programmes. In the long-run, an improvement of transportation infrastructure between market hubs (other than the Biratnagar trade basin) in the Terai (Nepal) and India would contribute to the reduction of transaction costs and create incentives for more competition in formal cross-border trade with India. In times of negative shocks such as the high food price crisis in 2008, restrictive food trade policies in India will continue to undermine household food security in Nepal.     

Conflict,food price shocks,and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households

Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violent incidents, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative tohouseholds in provinces with lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.     

Impact of food inflation on poverty in the Philippines

We simulate the impact of food inflation between June 2006 and June 2008 on poverty across different areas and between agricultural and non-agricultural households. We explicitly treat the spatial heterogeneity in food inflation and the differences in consumption and production patterns across households by merging household expenditure survey and price datasets at the provincial level or lower. Although some of the poor agricultural households may have escaped poverty, the poorest of the poor, whether they are in an agricultural household or not, are severely and adversely affected by the food inflation.     

Measuring food insecurity: Can an indicator based on localized coping behaviors be used to compare across contexts?

The Coping Strategies Index (CSI) was developed as a context-specific indicator of food insecurity that counts up and weights coping behaviors at the household level. It has proven useful to operational humanitarian agencies and researchers in measuring localized food insecurity, but to date has not been useful to compare the relative severity of different crises and has therefore has not been particularly useful for geographic targeting or resource allocation. This paper analyzes data from 14 surveys in crisis-affected or chronically vulnerable countries in Sub-Saharan Africa that incorporated the context-specific CSI. The paper identifies a sub-set of individual coping behaviors common to all surveys, whose severity is regarded as broadly similar by households across these studies. Data from these studies were re-analyzed using a reduced index constructed from only these behaviors. Correlations of this new index with other known food security indicators are similar to those of the complete, context-specific CSI. This suggests the possibility that an indicator based on these common behaviors could be used to compare the types of food security crises analyzed here across different contexts – particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa – to improve geographic targeting and resource allocation, according to the severity of crises. This new, more comparative indicator can be generated with no loss to the context-specific nature of the original CSI, which has proven useful for assessment and monitoring purposes.