Managing food price risks and instability in a liberalizing market environment: Overview and policy options

Managing food price risks and instability is a major challenge in the midst of ongoing food market reforms. Key findings from the papers in this special volume revolve around five broad areas: (i) the sources and magnitudes of food price instability in different country contexts; (ii) the economic and social costs stemming from price instability; (iii) the lessons from food market reforms to date; (iv) the design of policy reforms in ways that promote efficient and stable market development and protect the interests of the poor; and (v) potential policy responses to food price instability in a liberalizing market environment.     

Sources of food price volatility and child malnutrition in Niger and Malawi

In recent times, considerable attention has been paid to the nutritional impact of the sharp hikes in the international food prices which took place in 2007–8 and 2010–11. While understandable, this growing focus has perhaps obscured the impact of other variables affecting malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. the long-term impact of agricultural policies on food supply and prices, large and persistent seasonal variations in food prices, and the impact of famines which still affect parts of the continent. This paper focuses on the relative impact of these factors on child malnutrition (measured by the number of child admissions to feeding centres) in Malawi and Niger, two countries which closely represent the situation of other small, landlocked, subsistence agricultural economies facing severe food security problems. Our analysis shows that in these countries the drivers of changes in domestic staple prices and child malnutrition are related not only – or not primarily – to variations of international food prices but also to the impact of agricultural policies on food production and prices, in a persistent food price seasonality, and in recurrent and poorly managed famines. These factors can exert a strong upward pressure on food prices and child malnutrition even during years of falling international prices.     

Migration and child development during the food price crisis in El Salvador

Migration is often used as parts of both ex post and ex ante strategies to mitigate risks to household incomes. There is little empirical evidence, however, of the way that migration actually helps households in times of shocks. In this paper, I describe how the peak of the worldwide food price crisis affected anthropometric statistics among young children in El Salvador, and how households with access to international migrants were not affected as negatively as households without such access. In 2008, El Salvador experienced food price inflation of 15%, and the evaluation of Red Solidaria, El Salvador’s conditional cash transfer program, shows that height-for-age (HAZ) Z scores among children under 3 years old declined by 0.2 standard deviations on average. In this paper, I use the Red Solidaria evaluation data to assess whether children in households with access to remittances or international migrants were better off than households without access to migration income. Using both repeated cross-sectional data and individual panel data, I find that as theory would expect, children in households with access to international migrants have much lower declines in their HAZ scores.     

Poverty effects of food price escalation: The importance of substitution effects in Mexican households

Recent food price increases reportedly caused significant numbers of households to fall into poverty, particularly in the developing world. Most research into the welfare effects of these food price changes assumes constant demand or approximates second order substitution effects. Poverty forecasts with these assumptions may overestimate or underestimate the effect of food price increases in a nation where most households consume diverse food baskets. We account for full substitution by calculating a theoretically consistent food demand system, accounting for household responses to food price changes by decreasing some food purchases and increasing other food purchases. We use Mexican data to confirm the mitigation of adverse welfare effects from food price increases after accounting for country-specific dietary preferences in modeling demand. In comparison to previous literature, our welfare measures predict theoretically consistent numbers of Mexican households entering poverty due to recent food price changes.     

Examining the link between food prices and food insecurity: A multi-level analysis of maize price and birthweight in Kenya

In developing countries where many poor people rely on rainfed, locally produced food for the majority of their caloric intake, shifts in climate and weather patterns can dramatically reduce agricultural productivity. The reduction in agricultural productivity reduces overall food availability and ultimately impacts food accessibility, putting millions of people at risk for malnutrition. In this project we focus on Kenya where roughly a third of households are food insecure. We examine the relationship of the price of maize and low birth weight to help quantify the impact of local food prices on one outcome of household food insecurity. Using spatially referenced data from recent Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey datasets, price data, livelihood information, and a remotely sensed-based measure of local growing season productivity, we develop a dataset linking pregnancies occurring from 2001 to 2008 to the spatially and temporally relevant maize price data. We construct several regression models to examine the impact of local maize prices and remotely sensed based estimates of crop production on infant birth weight – specifically low birth weight. The results of the models highlight the importance of including community crop production to evaluate maize price impacts on low birth weight outcomes. Also, because of the positive correlation between pre-pregnancy maize prices and birth weight, the results suggest that some households may benefit from high prices or that high prices may impact the number of conceptions. More generally, our work demonstrates that multilevel models that account for community-level variation are important for disentangling these complex relationships and can contribute to the discussion of how to design more effective food policies.     

Conflict,food price shocks,and food insecurity: The experience of Afghan households

Using nationally-representative household survey data and confidential geo-coded data on violent incidents, we examine the relationship between conflict and food insecurity in Afghanistan. Spatial mappings of the raw data reveal large variations in levels of food insecurity and conflict across the country; surprisingly, high conflict provinces are not the most food insecure. Using a simple bivariate regression model of conflict (violent incidents and persons killed or injured) on food security (calorie intake and the real value of food consumed), we find mixed associations. But once we move to a multivariate framework, accounting for household characteristics and key commodity prices, we find robust evidence that in Afghanistan levels of conflict and food security are negatively correlated. We also find that households in provinces with higher levels of conflict experience muted declines in food security due to staple food price increases relative tohouseholds in provinces with lower levels of conflict, perhaps because the former are more disconnected from markets. Gaining a better understanding of linkages between conflict and food insecurity and knowing their spatial distributions can serve to inform policymakers interested in targeting scarce resources to vulnerable populations, for example, through the placement of strategic grain reserves or targeted food assistance programs.     

Evaluating the impact of reforming the food subsidy program in Egypt: A Mixed Demand approach

Food subsidy is one of the policies considered to protect consumer welfare against food price increases, in particular when the insufficient local production has to be complemented by food imports with volatile prices. Egypt has experienced several “food crises” (the latest in 2008), which put an halt to attempts to reform in depth the system of food subsidies because of social unrest. In this paper, we use a Mixed Demand approach to analyze the consumption structure of Egyptian households. Our model specification takes into consideration the characteristics of the Egyptian food subsidy system, where some food items have predetermined quotas while others are associated with predetermined (subsidized) prices. Price, income and quota elasticities are estimated from the Egyptian family expenditure survey, and welfare change measures are derived by income class. Simulations of various options to eliminate subsidies on selected food items are conducted. We estimate the negative welfare impact of the reforms, especially in the context of increasing food prices, by comparing welfare effects of policy options by income quartiles and by household category (rural, urban).     

The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania

Using three waves (2008/09, 2010/11, 2012/13) of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey, this study investigates the impact of maize price shocks on household food security. Between 2008/09 and 2012/13, calorie intake stagnated for urban households, yet sharply deteriorated for rural households. The latter was driven by a significant decline in the consumption of the major staple maize which showed strongest price hikes among all major food items. Fixed-effects regressions indicate a clear negative relationship between maize prices and average household energy intake. Almost all population groups were found to be negatively affected by maize price shocks, with rural landless households being the most vulnerable group. In particular, a 50 percent rise in maize prices decreases caloric intake for rural (urban) households on average by 4.4 (5.4) percent, and for rural landless households by 12.6 percent. Results further indicate that subsistence agriculture can act as an effective strategy to insure against food price volatility.     

Combined price support and fertilizer subsidy policies for food self-sufficiency: A case study of rice in Bangladesh

Output price support and input subsidies, particularly fertilizer subsidies, are used in many developing countries as short-term policies for stimulating food production. This paper presents a method of evaluating combined price support and fertilizer subsidy policies, allowing for differences in emphasis on each. Bangladesh is taken as a case study. The paper also indicates the likely distributional consequences of the various combined policies and formulates policy suggestions based on the results. The guiding hypothesis for the study is that some combination of price support and fertilizer subsidies is preferable to a price support or fertilizer subsidy monopolicy in achieving rice self sufficiency in Bangladesh.     

The evolution of food aid : Towards a development first regime

The purpose of food aid has evolved over the past 30 years, shifting from surplus disposal to a ‘development first’ regime. This shift was accelerated by the World Food Conference, but even 10 years after the conference it is yet to be completed. There are inherent tensions between the older and new design principles. The author proposes a more coherent set of governing principles and norms.     

Market integration and price transmission in consumer markets of developing countries

World prices for agricultural commodities surged in 2006–08, and then again in 2011–12. In many developing countries, consumer prices for staple foods, such as bread and rice, mirrored these movements. This paper examines whether prices in urban consumer markets within developing countries are co-integrated with prices in world agricultural commodity markets. Using a single equation error correction model, we examine the response of consumer prices for wheat, rice, maize, and sorghum to changes in world market prices and exchange rates in urban centers of the developing world. Analyzing over 60 country/commodity pairings, we find that developing countries’ consumer markets are co-integrated with world markets. Yet, we also find that the transmission of changes in both world prices and real exchange rates to domestic consumer prices is not high, and that the movement of domestic consumer prices to new equilibrium with world prices after a shock to the latter is relatively slow.     

Urban food policies in German city regions: An overview of key players and policy instruments

Although food is an emerging topic on municipal policy and planning agendas, a systematic examination of policy development, its implementation and the instruments used at the urban level is lacking. This study was carried out with the aim of gaining new insights into the prevalence of certain food policy instruments and capacity of policy action. In order to do so, we developed an analytical framework to investigate urban policy and planning approaches related to food issues and applied it in ten large German cities. First, we identified different actor groups and analysed their role in urban food policy (level of involvement in municipal food projects). We then studied the variety of policy and planning instruments and their application for different elements in the food system. For the empirical study, we employed a case study approach and utilised data gathering methods of qualitative research, i.e. expert interviews and document analysis. Our empirical findings in the studied cities reveal that urban food policy activities are still very fragmented and often based on individual initiatives within the administration. Integrated urban food policies and their implementation through urban food strategies are still an exception in major cities in Germany. We found that municipal actors follow mainly sectoral approaches, using a wide array of steering instruments, i.e. informational instruments and public procurement policies. However, their capacities for policy implementation remain limited due to missing financial and staffing resources. Accordingly, the potential the urban food system offers for sustainable development through multifunctionality and sectoral integration, is still underexploited.The systematic approach developed in this study may contribute to a better understanding of different policy approaches taken. The applied typology of policy instruments might also be useful for identifying effective ways to implement urban food strategies, to understand mismatches between instruments and different policy domains, levels and administrative units, e.g. at the urban-rural interface, and to design of new policy instruments.     

Household composition and food expenditures: a cross-country comparison

In the analysis of food expenditures, use of household member counts as an explanatory variable assumes each member has the same marginal food expenditure impact. In our analysis of Latin American food expenditures we reject this assumption via the estimation of endogenously determined adult equivalence scales that vary by household member gender and age. A series of hypothesis tests indicate significant differences not only in the male versus female equivalence scales but also across country. With the use of such equivalence scales in the definition of per capita expenditures we find significant differences in the distributions implying substantially different poverty rankings.     

The impact of food advertisements on changing eating behaviors: An experimental study

This research examines how three types of food advertising (healthy food, unhealthy food, and anti-obesity) impact consumers’ purchases of lunch items. The analysis is based on an economic experiment conducted with 186 adult non-undergraduate student subjects, each of which were randomly placed into either the control group or one of four treatments: (1) healthy food advertising, (2) anti-obesity advertising, (3) unhealthy food advertising, and (4) mixed (all three food) advertising. The results indicate that healthy, anti-obesity, and mixed food advertising reduced intakes of total calories, fat, sodium, and carbohydrates. Similarly, anti-obesity, healthy, and mixed food advertising results in increasing the probability of selecting more healthy items and fewer unhealthy items from a menu. Healthy food advertising has a stronger impact than anti-obesity or mixed food advertising.     

Consumer preferences before and after a food safety scare: An experimental analysis of the 2010 egg recall

In August 2010, more than half a billion eggs were recalled in the U.S. because of a Salmonella outbreak. This study examines the effect of the recall with a unique pair of auction experiments investigating willingness to pay (WTP) for conventional and organic eggs, one conducted shortly before and one right after the recall with the same participants. In addition to the before and after bids, participants bid again after a negative information or balanced information treatment about the event. Accompanying surveys showed consumers had a high level of awareness of the recall but less knowledge of specific details, and viewed information on egg farm conditions as very important in their WTP. While there were no significant before and after differences, WTP for organic eggs significantly increased in the negative information treatment, and balanced information had a positive effect on consumer WTP for conventional eggs.     

Local food,food miles and carbon emissions: A comparison of farm shop and mass distribution approaches

This paper provides a critical commentary on the conception of food miles followed by an empirical application of food miles to two contrasting food distribution systems based on carbon emissions accounting within these systems. The comparison is between the carbon emissions resultant from operating a large-scale vegetable box system and those from a supply system where the customer travels to a local farm shop. The study is based on fuel and energy use data collected from one of the UK’s largest suppliers of organic produce. The findings suggest that if a customer drives a round-trip distance of more than 6.7 km in order to purchase their organic vegetables, their carbon emissions are likely to be greater than the emissions from the system of cold storage, packing, transport to a regional hub and final transport to customer’s doorstep used by large-scale vegetable box suppliers. Consequently some of the ideas behind localism in the food sector may need to be revisited.     

Getting rid of trans fats in the US diet: Policies, incentives and progress

Artificial trans fats in foods increase chronic disease risk in the US population. Federal nutrition label regulation enacted in 2003 requires mandatory disclosure of trans fat content on packaged foods. This action created incentives for the food industry to reduce trans fats both in response to consumer demand and through competition to maintain product reputation. Subsequent public actions include a ban on trans fat use in New York city restaurants and lawsuits against food companies, which created further incentives to remove trans fats, especially in the food service industry. Industry has reformulated packaged foods and found substitutes for restaurant fry oils and trans fats are disappearing from the US food supply. Market response extends throughout the supply chain, and has spurred research to alter oilseed crop characteristics. The widespread and relatively rapid industry response likely has improved the quality of US diets, and demonstrates the potential for policy actions to spur such improvements.     

Food aid and household food security in a conflict situation: Empirical evidence from Northern Uganda

It is well-established that armed political conflict has a detrimental effect on food security and household welfare: conflict induces food insecurity by reducing own food production, access to food through the market, and various other resources to sustain healthy and productive lives. One way of mitigating these adverse effects is to provide food aid. In this study we evaluate the impact of a World Food Programme intervention on household food security and asset protection among conflict-affected households in Northern Uganda. We employ propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on food expenditure, food consumption and preservation of assets using a sample of 1265 observations from a 2008 survey. Our results reveal that the operation’s system of targeting beneficiaries was effective and in accordance with programme objectives. Food aid considerably reduced food expenditure of households, suggesting that recipients were net buyers of food, and that the food aid received was effectively consumed within the household. A corresponding positive effect on non-food expenditure was not found. Our results also indicate that food aid was effective in increasing meals consumed and in avoiding distress destocking of low value assets, but, surprisingly, only for male headed households.     

Changing household characteristics and the away-from-home food market: a censored equation system approach

The American consumer is obtaining more-and-more of his or her food at a restaurant, and that worries some people concerned with the Nation’s dietary health. To date, much of this concern seems to be directed at the fast food segment of the restaurant industry. This paper asks whether targeting one segment of the industry, such as fast food restaurants, is justified, or whether a more balanced view of eating away from home is required. To answer this question, we look to the future and ask whether Americans can be expected to purchase increasingly more fast food or more-and-more of the foods typically associated with full-service dining. One view is that sales at full-service restaurants will now grow relatively faster than sales of fast food. The argument supporting this position rests on rising incomes, the aging of the population, smaller household sizes, and other changes taking place in the population. Using a new full-information maximum likelihood procedure for estimating a system of censored expenditure equations, we find evidence to support this argument.     

The impact of a food security program on household food consumption in Northwestern Ethiopia: A matching estimator approach

With the financial support from various development partners, Ethiopia has designed and implemented several programs to improve household food security. Yet, food insecurity is still a major challenge to several millions of people in the country and it is questionable whether the different food security programs implemented over the past years have been successful. Using a propensity score matching method to control for pre-intervention differences, this study examined the impact on household food calorie intake of an integrated food security program (IFSP), which had been implemented in Northwestern Ethiopia by two non-governmental organizations as a case study. The estimated results provide evidence that IFSP has a positive and statistically significant effect on food calorie intake. In particular, IFSP has raised physical food calorie intake by 30% among the beneficiary households. However, we also found that IFSP has differential impact depending on family size, landownership and gender of head of household. Overall, the paper provides evidence that supporting integrated food security programs is important to improve food security in rural areas.