Openness of the economy,terms of trade,and arms

It is estimated that world military spending in 2011 amounted to over 2.5% of the world's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This corresponds to a spending of $233 per person in the world at 2010 constant prices, an amount close to the GDP per capita of the poorest country in the world. Therefore, it is important for economists to understand the allocation of resources to this sector of the economy. I present a model that explores the determinants of a country's level of military spending. I show how greater gains from trade can lead to greater military expenditures to protect them. It is also found that expansion in the demand for a country's tradable commodities, that is, an improvement in that country's terms of trade, will impact defense spending. Several other propositions emerge from the model which are then empirically tested using both pooled and time series data. The statistical results support the model's propositions.     

中小企业与银行的演化博弈分析

中小企业在融资的过程中会遇到一系列问题,最重要的决策问题为是否向银行借款,本文通过建立演化博弈模型对企业与银行之间的博弈进行了模拟,得出双方同时有意愿与对方合作(借款和贷款)或者同时不具有意愿与对方合作的两个稳定策略。博弈最终状态的确定由双方预期收益及初始博弈策略选择的状态决定。文章同时简要介绍了一系列可以使得系统朝着期望演化稳定策略收敛的措施,给予银行和企业及宏观调控些许指导。     

The international debt situation and North-South relations

The paper analyses the debt problem and possible solutions from the perspective of the major interests involved. It is shown that the emergence of a negative basic transfer — with resources flowing from South to North — is an inevitable consequence of heavy borrowing and high interest rates. In such a situation, borrowing countries are likely to consider a variety of default options. The banks, and major financial centres, have a strong interest in avoiding 100% default. Consequently, each of the powerful interests needs an alternative solution. Any lasting solution would need to reverse the negative basic transfer, and reduce the net present value of debt. Proposed solutions are discussed in the light of these requirements. Finally, the paper provides some statistical evidence on the bargaining position of different borrowing countries.     

Chinese Divisia Monetary Index and GDP Nowcasting

Since China’s enactment of the Reform and Opening-Up policy in 1978, China has become one of the world’s fastest growing economies, with an annual GDP growth rate exceeding 10 % between 1978 and 2008. But in 2015, Chinese GDP grew at 7 %, the lowest rate in 5 years. Many corporations complain that the borrowing cost of capital is too high. This paper constructs Chinese Divisia monetary aggregates M1 and M2, and, for the first time, constructs the broader Chinese monetary aggregates, M3 and M4. Those broader aggregates have never before been constructed for China, either as simple-sum or Divisia. The results shed light on the current Chinese monetary situation and the increased borrowing cost of money. GDP data are published only quarterly and with a substantial lag, while many monetary and financial decisions are made at a higher frequency. GDP nowcasting can evaluate the current month’s GDP growth rate, given the available economic data up to the point at which the nowcasting is conducted. Therefore, nowcasting GDP has become an increasingly important task for central banks. This paper nowcasts Chinese monthly GDP growth rate using a dynamic factor model, incorporating as indicators the Divisia monetary aggregate indexes, Divisia M1 and M2 along with additional information from a large panel of other relevant time series data. The results show that Divisia monetary aggregates contain more indicator information than the simple sum aggregates, and thereby help the factor model produce the best available nowcasting results. In addition, our results demonstrate that China’s economy experienced a regime switch or structure break in 2012, which a Chow test confirmed the regime switch. Before and after the regime switch, the factor models performed differently. We conclude that different nowcasting models should be used during the two regimes.     

Loan interest rate pass-through and changes after the financial crisis: Japan’s evidence

We estimate interest rate pass-through in the loan market using an individual bank-based panel dataset from Japan. Previous studies using data from European countries have presented a number of common findings, including that banks with a high proportion of relationship lending tend to set lower pass-through. In this respect, we have obtained similar results using a dataset for Japan going back to the early 2000s. We further examine the influence of borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics on loan interest rate pass-through, and find that these additional factors are also important determinants for pass-through dispersion. However, after the recent global financial crisis, even banks with a high proportion of relationship lending have largely lowered loan interest rates by raising pass-through, and pass-through has not necessarily been determined in accordance with borrowing firms’ balance sheet characteristics. These results differ from those of recent studies on European countries. Possible background factors explaining this change are that (i) pressure to lower loan interest rates has risen due to extensive monetary easing and greater lending competition among banks, while Japan’s banking system as a whole has maintained its resilience in the post-crisis period; (ii) demand for bank loans has increased substantially due to disruptions in the market for alternative funding sources, such as commercial paper and corporate bonds; and (iii) public measures to increase bank loans have been broadly introduced in Japan.     

100 YEARS OF TARIFF PROTECTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper presents time series of tariff rates in Australia from the time of Federation. As a preliminary to the construction of economy-wide series, it constructs series for three broadly representative goods throughout the 100 years: passenger motor vehicles, blankets, and beer. It then constructs two economy-wide series, one for all imports and another for dutiable imports only. It discusses the main events relating to turning points in the series and concludes with some applications.     

A kalman filter-gravity equation approach to assess the trade impact of economic integration: The case of Spain, 1986–1992

A Kaiman Filter-Gravity Equation Approach to Assess the Trade Impact of Economic Integration: The Case of Spain, 1986-1992. — The main objective of this paper is to propose an alternative method for evaluating the effects that economic integration between countries has on their trade flows. The trade impact model of reference is the gravity equation and the empirical application of the methodology focuses on Spain’s incorporation into the EEC in 1986. The principal contribution consists in the dynamization of the gravity equation by means of the Kaiman filter. By way of the Kalman algorithm, we use all the preintegration information in order to predict the coefficients of the gravity equation for the subsequent years, thereby defining a more credibleantimonde.     

Does tax deduction relax financing constraints? Evidence from China's value-added tax reform

Financial constraint is a significant obstacle for firm growth, especially in developing countries where credit is scarce. This paper explores the role of tax policy in relaxing firms' financial constraints by exploiting China's value-added tax (VAT) reform that was initiated in 2004 and completed in 2009. We use a quasi-experimental method and Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (ASIF) data from 2000 to 2009 to estimate the VAT reform's policy effects on financial constraints. We show that the VAT reform significantly improves firms' external financing capacity by decreasing borrowing costs and promoting commercial credit. The findings are robust to alternative specifications but show heterogeneity across ownerships, firm sizes, regions, and between export and non-export firms. Our analysis suggests tax deduction is useful to relax firms' financial constraints.     

A Diagnostic on the West African Monetary Union

Deploying the classical optimum currency areas (OCA) theory and recent developments in the monetary literature, this paper evaluates the appropriateness of West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) as a monetary zone. Nine macroeconomic dimensions are investigated under which the first four items are quantified against a reference economy, namely the United States, the eurozone or China, while the rest are measured in absolute terms for time periods before and after the 2008‐2009 global financial crisis. Results could signify relative dominance of the three world's largest economies to the West African region. In addition to inherent asymmetries across the union, findings suggest the emerging Chinese yuan as an alternative to the euro as the monetary anchor.     

Lenders’ Response to Peer and Customer Restatements

We investigate whether restatements announced by economically related firms influence the contract terms a borrower receives from lenders. A restatement by a major customer firm increases the loan spread of a borrower by 11 basis points, on average. The contagion effects of customer restatements are higher (45 basis points) when a borrower's switching costs are high. Restatements by peer firms in the same industry also increase a borrower's loan spread, and this increase occurs regardless of restatement severity. Moreover, the sensitivity of loan spread to peer restatements is significantly greater when the restating peer firms are also in the bank's lending portfolio, suggesting that a lender's personal experience with restatements in an industry makes it more attuned to the potential implications of these restatements for the borrowing firm. Finally, our results suggest that lenders utilize information from peer restatements to anticipate future restatements by the borrowing firm.     

Going multilateral? Financial markets' access and the League of Nations loans, 1923–8

Why are international financial institutions important? This article reassesses the role of the loans issued with the support of the League of Nations. These long‐term loans constituted the financial basis of the League's strategy to restore the productive basis of countries in central and eastern Europe in the aftermath of the First World War. In this article, it is argued that the League's loans accomplished the task for which they were conceived because they allowed countries in financial distress to access capital markets. The League adopted an innovative system of funds management and monitoring that ensured the compliance of borrowing countries with its programmes. Empirical evidence is provided to show that financial markets had a positive view of the League's role as an external, multilateral agent, solving the credibility problem of borrowing countries and allowing them to engage in economic and institutional reforms. This success was achieved despite the League's own lack of lending resources. It is also demonstrated that this multilateral solution performed better than the bilateral arrangements adopted by other governments in eastern Europe because of its lower borrowing and transaction costs.     

Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals: Potential Macroeconomic Consequences for South Africa

South Africa is one of the emerging market countries that have received a relatively large amount of foreign capital since the mid‐2000s. In South Africa's case, these inflows were partly used to build the country's foreign exchange reserves, but more particularly to finance continued large current account deficits. During the course of the past two years, however, adverse domestic political developments, combined with the potential negative impacts of the unwinding of quantitative easing policies and the normalising of monetary policy in the United States on emerging markets in general, has raised the spectre of a sharp slowdown in foreign capital flows to South Africa and an associated reversal of the current deficit. This paper explores the potential impact of such a development on macroeconomic conditions in South Africa. The analysis consists of macroeconometric model‐based alternative scenarios backed up by both the international evidence on the impact of such events and South Africa's own history.     

语言借用与中国"洋泾浜"现象

语言借用是语言接触的必然结果,是语言发展过程中的正常现象."洋泾浜"现象是语言借用的极端产物.中国"洋泾浜"现象不仅有旧上海洋泾浜英语、伪满洲洋泾浜协和语,还有持续了半个多世纪的洋化港语.洋化港语比上海洋泾浜语、伪满洲协和语使用的时间更长,涉及的范围更广,对当代国人的冲击也更强.我们把当代的洋化港语称为"新洋泾浜"现象.它与粤语的逐渐"洋化",以及"洋化"趋势逐渐北上深入内地的语言现象有较大的关联.     

Evaluation of the impact of Village Savings and Loan Associations using a novel survey instrument

Formal microfinance institutions have been an important tool in the fight against poverty in developing countries, but their reach is necessarily limited. Village Savings and Loan Associations (VSLAs) are an alternative, informal mechanism for saving and borrowing that do not require external capital or ongoing financial or administrative support from a founding organisation. This article evaluates the impact of VSLAs on their members and finds that long-term members fare better along multiple economic, nutritional, and health dimensions compared with a control group of recent joiners.     

Does productive microcredit improve rural children's education? Evidence from rural Vietnam

Whether increasing access to microcredit results in better educational outcomes for children’s education in rural areas remains an important but inconclusive topic in development literature. This paper contributes to this strand of research both theoretically and empirically. We develop a theoretical model where a representative household uses microcredit to fund its family business and maximises its lifetime utility. Based on the outcomes of its business, the parents make an optimal decision on the level of their children’s schooling investment. Solving the maximisation problem, we show that a household’s optimal education for its children is directly related to the level of microcredit. Empirically, we utilise the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) dataset from 2008 to 2016 to estimate the impact of microcredit on rural children’s schooling. We find that microcredit borrowing by rural households negatively affects their children’s education, which is more profound for boys than girls. Policymakers need to be aware of such side effects in designing microcredit policy and adopt auxiliary measures, such as incorporating a clause on children's education in the borrowing terms, to alleviate the negative impact on children’s educational outcomes.     

数字普惠金融对家庭消费借贷的影响研究——基于金融素养的调节效应

基于中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）2015年、2017年和2019年三期面板数据探讨数字普惠金融与家庭消费借贷之间的关系。研究表明,数字普惠金融对家庭消费借贷具有扩张效应,其中对低层次消费借贷扩张效应更强,金融素养提高能强化数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应。分数字普惠金融子维度来看,数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应主要源于覆盖广度和使用深度的提高,数字化程度作用较小。异质性分析发现,数字普惠金融对消费借贷的扩张效应对“长尾”群体更显著,即对农村和中西部家庭消费借贷具有更强的扩张效应。另外,该扩张效应存在工具门槛及知识门槛,拥有智能手机及高学历的家庭更容易获得消费借贷。     

Tracking down the business cycle: A dynamic factor model for Germany 1820–1913

We use a Bayesian dynamic factor model in order to calculate an economic activity index for Germany prior to World War I. The procedure allows us to incorporate information from a vast number of time series, which are underutilized by historical national accounts. Therefore, our indicator provides an alternative measure for economic activity, based on a broader database. To investigate industrialization, we compare our aggregate measure of economic activity with sectoral activity indices. We find that the industrial transition was completed earlier than agricultural output and employment shares suggest, since the indicator for agriculture had already decoupled from the aggregate business cycle measure during the 1860s. Moreover, we find that stock prices are strongly correlated with our indicator, and lead it by 1–2 years.     

Foreign capital and the prospects for Zimbabwe

Very little is known about the development or the structure of foreign ownership of the Rhodesian economy, because of the general inadequacy of statistics resulting from participation in federation in the 1950s and UDI. This paper is an attempt to put the story together, by a series of estimates, a rather heavy reliance on statistics published in 1964/1965, and an assessment of scattered information appearing more recently. It is concluded that although Rhodesian private capital is relatively much weaker than its South African equivalent, it is dominant in some important sectors. Some possible consequences of this for Zimbabwean prospects are considered.     

External debt and commitment mechanisms: Danish borrowing in Holland, 1763–1825

External borrowing constituted an important part of sovereign finances in early modern Europe. As payments could not be enforced through third parties, sovereigns had to convince lenders of their commitment to service their loans. Although the literature has dealt with this problem extensively, little is known about what supported lending in early modern Europe. This article therefore asks whether and how commitment mechanisms identified in the sovereign borrowing literature made external borrowing safer in early modern Europe. It attempts to answer this question by analysing the loans that a small and peripheral state (Denmark) issued in Europe's foremost international investment hub (eighteenth‐century Holland). Primary sources demonstrate that Denmark inspired confidence in investors and serviced its loans well; a new dataset with securities prices reveals yields to maturity in accordance with this. Economic spillovers (domestic economic damage) and reputation (loss of access to external loans) are identified as the mechanisms that kept the Danish sovereigns committed to honouring their debts. The Danish case shows, however, that these commitment mechanisms could only be adopted after the growth and integration of northern Europe's economies. This suggests that commitment mechanisms are not as universally applicable as the literature often seems to claim.