THE PRESENT STATE OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN LATIN AMERICA

This document attempts to give an overall review of the present situation of national accounts in Latin America, and deals essentially with the statistical basis and procedures used in their preparation. The purpose of these comments is to place the main problems common to all countries in order of priority and, in view of the need to advance and in the face of the task of establishing the present SNA, to discuss briefly the main lines which future work might follow. The stage of development so far reached by national accounts in Latin America is unsatisfactory if compared with the former system recommended by the United Nations two decades ago, and their recent evolution indicates that the rate of progress has fallen behind the advances made in the theoretical field in this connexion, and in relation to the increasing requirements of macroeconomic information for economic planning and policy. This whole picture becomes more meaningful if the objectives, structure and content of the present SNA, that has already been in force for five years, are compared with the present state of national accounts estimates in the region, which reveals the long road that lies ahead and the magnitude of the effort required if the present situation is to show a change for the better. Clearly, little progress can be made unless the basic statistics are expanded in scope and improved. This is the crux of the problem, towards which the greatest efforts and resources should primarily be channeled. It is necessary to adopt a critical approach and concerted action with respect to four aspects which characterize the national statistical systems in Latin America:

• (a) organizational problems and the shortage of human and financial resources;
• (b) the lack of co-ordinated programmes of basic statistics;
• (c) the limited use of efficient methods of collecting data; and
• (d) the insufficient recourse to administrative records.

     

A REVIEW OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE LIGHT OF COUNTRIES’ EXPERIENCES*

A review of the United Nations System of National Accounts and its implementation by countries is presently being conducted at the United Nations Statistical Office. This article presents a personal and selective account by the author of the results of that review and its consequences for the present structure of the SNA. Information is included on the level of response by countries for the tables of the SNA national accounts questionnaire. It shows that this response is at present sparce, except for the tables on GDP by end use, cost structure and kind of economic activity. On the more detailed level the feasibility of introducing integrated sector accounts into the system has been examined and different approaches compared. Country practices suggest that one way of facilitating the introduction of such accounts would be to eliminate one essential feature of the dual classification of the SNA, i.e., the distinction between quasi-corporate and other unincorporated enterprises. Other modifications of the SNA structure implied below are the introduction on a limited scale of articulation of transactions, the inclusion of additional aggregate income and balancing items, a reallocation of data between the main accounts and the supporting tables, and a better integration of the SNA matrix with the accounts and tables of the system. A reduction of the present number of independent classifications in the SNA is suggested, based on links between categories of different classifications that are assumed in country responses to the questionnaire. A suggestion is made for a uniform valuation of goods and services and income flows, to replace the present complex valuation guidelines on approximate basic and factor values and producers’ prices.     

PROBLEMS OF A CENSUS OF NATIONAL WEALTH

This paper is essentially a summary of the book Measuring the Nation's Wealth (Volume 29, Studies in Income and Wealth, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1964), which is the report of study directed by the author. The purpose o f the study was to assess the problems and possibilities of conducting a national census of real wealth as a basis for continuing wealth and balance sheet estimates for the U.S. economy, by major sector.
It is stressed that the balance sheets and wealth estimates should be designed as a consistent part of an integrated system of national income accounts. Thus, valuation (at market prices and/or depreciated replacement costs), sectoring, and type-of-asset detail in the basic data and derived estimates should be compatible with the flow estimates contained in the economic accounts. Consistency of stock and flow estimates facilitates analysis of inter-relationships, and is helpful in the estimation process.
It is recommended that in the U.S. asset data by broad categories be collected as part of the recurring economic censuses and other reporting systems, but that detail on fixed reproducible assets (construction and equipment) at cost, by year or period of acquisition, be obtained from a small sample of respondents in each industry. The detail would be useful in its own right, and also permit revaluation of the assets by use of price indexes and depreciation rates to a current depreciated replacement cost basis. Where feasible, respondent estimates of market values would also be obtained.
The proposal is thus a compromise between the Japanese 1955 sample survey of assets, and the detailed wealth inventory of the U.S.S.R. which was begun in 1959. Preliminary work is now underway in the U.S. federal statistical agencies to expand collection of asset data, and to prepare comprehensive wealth estimates in the framework of the national income accounts.     

《中国国民经济核算体系(2002)》刍议

经过 10年的发展 ,中国国民经济核算体系研究与应用方面取得了巨大成就。即将颁布实施的《中国国民经济核算体系 (2 0 0 2 )》相对于 1992年的《中国国民经济核算体系实施方案》无论是在基本框架、账户体系、主要指标、统计分类等方面 ,还是在理论上的系统性、应用上的可操作性、资料的使用价值以及国际可比性等方面都得到了进一步完善和发展。本文主要讨论《中国国民经济核算体系 (2 0 0 2 )》修订的主要内容及其实施的重要作用。     

A NEW ARCHITECTURE FOR THE U.S. NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The key elements of a new architecture for the U.S. national accounts have been developed in a prototype system constructed by Dale W. Jorgenson and J. Steven Landefeld, Director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The focus of the U.S. national accounts is shifting from economic stabilization policy toward enhancing the economy's growth potential. A second motivation for the new architecture is to integrate the different components of the decentralized U.S. statistical system and make them consistent.     

RELIABILITY OF THE QUARTERLY NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS OF THE UNITED STATES, 1947–1971*

The reliability of the quarterly national income and product (NIP) accounts of the United States is examined from several standpoints. First, possible sources of error in the quarterly NIP accounts are explored, the most important being the lack of appropriate data, seasonal adjustment errors, sampling errors and biases, and the nature of the U.S. statistical system. Next, four ways of assessing the reliability of the accounts are considered. The most weight is given to measures of revisions in early estimates of the quarterly NIP aggregates. Results of previous studies of revisions are reviewed, and a summary of a major study of revisions for the period 1947–71 is given. The other ways of assessing reliability which are examined are the effect of errors on economic policy making, analysis of the statistical discrepancy, and expert judgment on sources and methodology. The degree of accuracy is judged to be generally sufficient for the policy decisions for which the NIP estimates are used. The early estimates of a quarter's change in GNP almost always distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be large or small and will usually distinguish whether the ultimate estimate will be larger or smaller than the preceding quarter. While the accuracy of the estimates has generally been sufficient, the accuracy for 1965 was judged insufficient by policymakers. There is some evidence that errors have been reduced over time.     

THE UNITED NATIONS SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

After an introduction setting out the general state of work on the national accounts in the Middle East the author considers the principal uses of national accounts statistics in less developed countries. The first group of uses discussed is in connexion with the measurement of growth and the making of international comparisons. The author is of the opinion that in many cases the primary statistical series are so weak that the fact they they are combined together into a series called national income or gross domestic product lends to them a significance which they do not really possess. The real problem is to improve the quality of the primary series. A second use of national accounts statistics is in connexion with fiscal and budgetary policy. In the statistically advanced countries this is one of the most important uses but in the less developed countries budgetary policy has not yet reached a level of sophistication which would call for the use of national accounts data. Moreover, the time factor involved in assembling accurate national accounts estimates militates against their effective use for short term forecasting. The author considers that the most important use for national accounts statistics is to provide a framework for development planning. The United Nations system is not altogether appropriate for this purpose. It grew up primarily as a system for recording income flows but in development planning one is concerned equally with commodity flows with a great deal of attention being focussed upon intermediate products. The proposals of the working group of African Statisticians for an adaptation of the S.N.A. to African countries represents a most important advance in this respect. In the final section of the paper the author advocates a broader definition of capital formation to include developmental expenditure which is not properly defined as fixed capital formation. Education expenditure is cited as an example. It is suggested that in the national accounts it would be desirable to operate with gross concepts. However, the growth of the capital stock is obviously important in less developed countries and it is suggested that statistical techniques be devised to measure it directly wherever possible. Finally, attention is drawn to the ambiguities and weaknesses in the concept of residence as used at present in the S.N.A.     

INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S.S.R. IN THE 1980s

In 1989 Soviet authorities released unprecedented new data on the size distribution of income in the U.S.S.R. in the 1980s, including the distributions by republics. With the goal of providing a benchmark for evaluating the effect of current and future economic reforms on income distribution in the former Soviet Union, this paper estimates inequality measures for the new data. The estimation uses a simple nonparametric technique based on the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to fit the Soviet data to a lognormal distribution. The results suggest that, for income from official sources, (1) inequality in the Soviet Union as a whole declined throughout the 1980s-both before and after Gorbachev's accession in 1985, and (2) income inequality was greater in the poorer, southern republics of the U.S.S.R. than in the north. While the inclusion of unofficial (unreported) private income would probably reinforce the second of these two trends, its effect on the first cannot be determined on the basis of available information.     

THE TREATMENT OF INTEREST AND FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF AUSTRALIA

This paper is divided into two main sections. The first part summarises briefly the main points which have arisen in the lengthy debate over the treatment of banking intermediaries in the national accounts. The discussion emphasises the method adopted in the early Australian accounts when banks were treated in the same way as the general government. It is argued that this method is simpler and provides a more realistic account of the functions of banks than the current SNA proposal.
The second part of the paper examines the functions of banks in Australia. It uses data of interest and administration cost for separate banking institutions to examine the incidence of bank costs. It is concluded that the costs do not fall on borrowers or lenders but are a charge in providing a communal service in the establishment and maintenance of the financial system.     

PRICES AND PRICE ANALYSIS IN THE FRAMEWORK OF THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper discusses the role of prices in the framework of the new System of National Accounts (SNA) in terms of three major uses: (1) deflation, (2) price indicators, and (3) price analysis. Following a brief review of the price and quantity measures required by the new SNA with its emphasis on deflation of commodity flows and input-output accounts, in addition to the more conventional deflation of final demand categories, the paper discusses some of the conceptual, methodological and data problems involved in implementing the various uses of prices in the new SNA. Implementing the use of prices as deflators depends, in part, on the concept of output selected (national versus domestic; gross versus net), and which of six concepts of valuation, ranging from purchasers'value to true factor cost, is used. Some of the difficulties in deflating nonmarket flows (e.g., interplant transfers) and industry value added, based on the double deflation method, are discussed. In concept price deflators, which have shifting weights, cannot be used as price indicators, which should have fixed weights. In practice, this is often disregarded and the deflators are used as price indicators. The paper support the SNA recommendation for the development of price indexes with fixed weights to be used as price indicators, in addition to the implicit price deflators. Research in the United States indicates that differences in weights can result in different price measures for various subperiods, components of demand and sector output. Periodic revisions in weights to provide more current fixed weights for price and quantity indexes in each subperiod may minimize the problem but it introduces a new problem—lack of comparability with the constant price tables in the SNA which have fixed weights for the entire period. The new SNA provides a comprehensive and integrated framework for price analysis including the analysis of the structure of aggregate price changes, the industrial origin of final demand prices, and the impact of price change in one sector of the economy on the rest of the economy. Some major gaps which need to be overcome in order to implement the use of the new SNA for price analysis include the development of industry capital stock estimates, separate estimates of proprietors’income, reconciliation of value added and distribution share estimates, and the development of a wide variety of information to supplement the conventional input-output tables in the SNA. Implementing the various objectives of price measures within the framework of the accounts will require a number of improvements in existing price measures and expanding the scope of coverage. “List” prices should be superseded by “transactions” prices and better techniques and data need to be developed to provide for quality adjustment of prices. Coverage will need to be expanded to include services, freight rates, trade margins, government expenditures, and also fill in gaps for many manufactured products. Finally, where possible, use of unit values as price indexes or deflators, e.g., imports and exports, should be replaced by direct price measures.     

CONCEPTUAL AMD STATISTICAL ISSUES IN DEVELOPING ENVIRONMENTAL MEASURES-RECENT U.S. EXPERIENCE

The purpose of this paper is to describe the conceptual and statistical basis of the estimates of United States public and private spending for pollution abatement and control (PAC) prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce. The concepts and definitions were designed to ensure comparability with the national economic accounts since much of the analysis of the effects of environmental programs on the economy is conducted with the aid of the accounts. The work to date has been limited to pollution associated with harmful "foreign" substances and forms of energy discharged in the course of production, distribution and consumption. The conceptual base includes evaluation of benefits, but estimates completed thus far are limited to the cost of pollution abatement and control.
Definitions are given for pollution, pollution abatement, direct pollution abatement cost, indirect pollution abatement cost and indirect benefits. A framework for the estimation and presentation of PAC expenditures is developed and the estimate of U.S. PAC expenditures for 1972 and 1973 is presented. A brief chronological summary of the BEA project is also provided.     

MEASURING THE VALUE OF THE CAPITAL STOCK BY DIRECT OBSERVATION

In the Netherlands the Central Bureau of Statistics (C.B.S.) carried out two experimental investigations into the possibility of observing the actual value of the capital stock by means of enquiries at enterprises.
This article reports on the investigation into the cigar-industry. The intention is to carry out enquiries in one branch of industry after another. In due course (for instance after 10 years) it will again be the turn of the first branch of industry and so on. There are also branches of industry which have a fair amount of information regarding capital assets available at their disposal, so that enquiries are not necessary. In the long run the method described will supply statistical data on the value of the capital stock for all branches of industry together.
The gross actual value at current and constant prices is calculated for the cigar-industry, broken down by type and vintage. The enquiry was carried out in two steps. Questionnaires were not sent to the enterprises but they were visited in order that C.B.S. staff could derive the data required from the accounts available. Within the C.B.S. this information was processed, C.B.S. staff making estimates for lacking data. It may be concluded that this method of enquiry for the capital stock is difficult but useful. The results of the enquiry are comparable throughout, the valuation having been carried out in the same way for all enterprises and care having been taken that in each enterprise all means of production were asked for.
In the future this new technique of enquiry will provide good detailed information on the capital stock in the Netherlands.     

THE CREATION OF A MICRODATA FILE FOR ESTIMATING THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME*

This paper describes the methods used by the Office of Business Economics, U.S. Department of Commerce, in creating a microdata file for use in estimating the size distribution of income. It explains the techniques of statistical matching involved in merging microdata files from various sources to correct and supplement income estimates in the original field survey (The Current Population Survey) and to incorporate additional information that can be used to estimate items and types of income not contained in the original file.     

PROBLEMS IN THE COMPILATION OF INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES IN THE NETHERLANDS

This article deals with some aspects of the compilation of input-output tables (I.O. tables). A global view is given of the way in which I.O. tables are compiled in The Netherlands. It is indicated that in The Netherlands a number of developments are in progress that have led to an extension of the uses that are made of I.O. tables. The changing demands on I.O. tables that result from these developments can be met in future to an important degree. This has been made possible by extending and improving basic statistics and by increasing the uses made of automation facilities. Some problems remain, however, and one of these problems takes a central place in this article. This is the problem of accuracy and continuity: how can yearly I.O. tables be compiled that combine accuracy with consistency over time. Accuracy means here that the tables should be as complete as possible and in optimal accordance with all available information. Consistency over time means that estimates of details of I.O. tables compared with the same estimates for previous years reflect real economic developments. It is obvious that those two demands may conflict, particularly for years in which new information becomes available. It then must be decided whether accuracy or consistency in time deserves priority. What problems result from this decision and what are the consequences for the yearly I.O. tables? The problems arising from the conflicting demands of accuracy and continuity apply to the Netherlands in the last few years. This led to a revision of I.O. tables and national accounts for 1977. This revision resulted in an increase of estimated national income of more than 6 percent. For some components the adjustments have been much larger; this is particularly true for the services sector. More information on the 1977 revision is given in an annex.     

THE SKILL COMPOSITION OF U.S. CITIES*

This article explores why the fraction of highly educated workers varies across U.S. metropolitan areas. It documents a set of facts that pose challenges for a number of theories. Notably, (i) cities are characterized by industry neutral differences in skilled labor productivity and (ii) the size of the business services sector is strongly correlated with cities' skill compositions. Motivated by these observations, I propose an input sharing model, in which nontraded business services complement skilled labor. I show that the model accounts for all of the empirical regularities documented in the article.