Can India meet the increasing food demand by 2020?

India's Green Revolution has evolved at an environmental cost, which is perhaps irreversible. The economic growth has become increasingly dependant upon the use of non-renewable resources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, oil and coal. India now follows a rapid development path, which is similar to the past growth patterns of most western nations. Whether or not such a growth blueprint would be environmentally sustainable under Indian conditions is questionable since rapid economic growth tends to positively influence environmental degradation. India is a land of villages with 700 million people living in over 600,000 villages, many in the enormous drylands. As the Tata Visiting Chair, I had the opportunity to study the rural development projects implemented by a non-profit agency (Sadguru Foundation) that harvests rainwater to improve irrigation and livelihood of rural people using check dams and lift irrigation systems in western India. This paper has examined how India's remote drylands can be transformed to achieve a ‘Sustainable Green Revolution’ to meet India's future food demands without creating serious negative consequences to natural environment. If the model highlighted in this paper is adopted all across the vast drylands of India and other parts of Asia, Africa and South America, it would certainly increase agricultural output, guarantee future food security, protect natural resources, and above all exterminate the greatest insult to human dignity—poverty!     

Consumption and Hedging in Oil‐Importing Developing Countries

We study the consumption and hedging strategy of an oil‐importing developing country that faces multiple crude oil shocks. In our model, developing countries have two particular characteristics: their economies are mainly driven by natural resources and their technologies are less efficient in energy usage. The natural resource exports can be correlated with the crude oil shocks. The country can hedge against the crude oil uncertainty by taking long/short positions in existing crude oil futures contracts. We find that both inefficiencies in energy usage and shocks to the crude oil price lower the productivity of capital. This generates a negative income effect and a positive substitution effect, because today’s consumption is relatively cheaper than tomorrow’s consumption. Optimal consumption of the country depends on the magnitudes of these effects and on its risk‐aversion degree. Shocks to other crude oil factors, such as the convenience yield, are also studied. We find that the persistence of the shocks magnifies the income and substitution effects on consumption, thus also affecting the hedging strategy of the country. The demand for futures contracts is decomposed in a myopic demand, a pure hedging term and productive hedging demands. These hedging demands arise to hedge against changes in the productivity of capital due to changes in crude oil spot prices. We calibrate the model for Chile and study to what extent the country’s copper exports can be used to hedge the crude oil risk.     

On the nonlinear relationship between energy use and CO2 emissions within an EKC framework: Evidence from panel smooth transition regression in the MENA region

This paper proposes a new approach for analyzing the dynamic relationships between carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, energy use, and income for the Middle East and North African (MENA) region. Our study implements a class of regime-switching models, namely a nonlinear panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) framework. Two kinds of estimates for carbon emissions are provided. On the one hand, we measure the impact of energy consumption on CO₂ concerning the level of income per capita, as countries with a similar energy usage level would have different levels of energy intensity. On the other hand, we estimate the impact of output growth on emissions concerning energy usage variation, as a higher economic growth does not necessarily mean energy-intensive activities. Our empirical findings support these intuitions as they indicate that pollutant emissions respond nonlinearly to energy consumption and GDP growth. We find an inverted U-shaped pattern for the impact of energy on CO₂, in the sense that environmental degradation is declining beyond a given income threshold, which is estimated endogenously within the PSTR model. Also, our results underscore that GDP growth significantly impacts carbon emissions only for higher energy consumption growth.     

A 20-20 Vision for India: targets, policies and implementation

We live in a unipolar world not only politically and militarily, but intellectually too with globalisation attaining the status of dogma. As globalisation has not always helped developing countries, swadeshi, or self-reliance, has been strongly advocated by influential groups in India. Logically, there is space for both: globalisation for improving competitiveness of tradeables, and swadeshi for maximising employment through non-tradeables.India has been growing well but not as well it could because of excessive impedance to growth. Impedance has three components: weight of tradition, reluctance to change, and friction against movement. Positive feedback in the form of local autonomy has been suggested as a remedy. As positive feedback is inherently unstable, it should be circumscribed by negative feedback. Integral feedback, integrating over all local units combined together, and over time, should minimise risk of instability.Apart from local autonomy, India will progress fast only if bureaucracy is assured security. In particular, frequent, arbitrary and often vindictive transfers of officials have become a dreaded menace. They should be subjected to the rule of law. Politicians have become a problem; many of them bank on promoting hatred. As a remedy, each voter may be given as many votes as there are candidates, and also the option to make each vote either positive or negative. Then, any hate vote gained will be nullified by the negative votes. Hate will cease to be profitable.President Kalam’s proposal for shifting investment from congested cities to rural areas by linking loops of villages by four types of connectivity—physical, electronic, economic and knowledge—promises to hasten India’s growth, and improve the environment too. Ultimately, that way we can dream of a future where even the poorest will enjoy all basic Maslow Needs—water, shelter, education, health services, connectivity, good environment, and enough surplus of money and time to enjoy leisure.

Will I be rich, will I be pretty?

Will there be rainbows day after day?

—Song in the movie The Man Who Knew Too Much

Japan-India civil nuclear energy cooperation: prospects and concerns

India is a non-party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. However, India argues its impeccable non-proliferation record shows the country as a responsible state with advanced nuclear technology that should be allowed to acquire the same benefits and advantages of nuclear energy cooperation under the existing global nuclear non-proliferation regime. This statement needs careful analysis of whether or not the Japan-India civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement could be successfully concluded and acceded to. This paper elaborates on the possibilities and concerns related to the matter from a politico-legal point of view, in order to materialise a mutually satisfactory and legitimate bilateral agreement. The scope of possible civil nuclear energy cooperation may be limited, probably not exceeding the level that the US has agreed with India, right now. It is, however, a necessary initial step for dramatically reconstructing our relationship, which may allow for greater cooperation in the near future.     

城镇化转型下金融资源配置研究

近年来我国城镇化步伐加快,但金融资源的配置转换没有跟上经济结构调整的步伐,一系列问题的积累制约了农村金融功能和效率的提高,本文从城乡收入差距、金融发展水平、城乡融资依赖度、城镇化水平等角度实证分析了我国城镇化变迁中金融配置失衡导致的城乡收入变化、劳动力转移等因素,最后从互联网金融发展角度阐述了破解城乡融资失衡的解决路径。     

Enhancing stakeholder interaction through environmental risk accounts

Accounting should mobilise growing awareness of environmental degradation into harm mitigation strategies by representing humanity's relational existence with nature. Catchment-oriented accounting directs attention to the harm inflicted by unsustainable practices by integrating measurements of the multiple causes of degradation into meaningful accounts. We propose a semi-qualitative risk matrix to enhance stakeholder participation in the construction of these accounts: our matrix allows lay-stakeholders to use their lived experiences to socialise expert measurements, and thus embark on a journey of learning socially about sustainable living. An irrigation case-study is used to evaluate the extent to which irrigators displayed the following social learning capacities through their contribution to the construction of risk accounts on the impact of irrigation on their catchment: awareness of each other's competing-and-interdependent goals and perspectives, shared problem identification, appreciation of the complex issues at hand, motivation to work collaboratively, trust and the creation of formal–informal relationships. Four of seven irrigators displayed many of these capacities as they contested unsustainable values embedded in conventional irrigation discourse, and articulated less harmful priorities. The remaining irrigators took advantage of the analytical-deliberative spaces (provided by our matrix and accounts) to better appreciate the environmental impact of irrigation.     

Future of secularism in India

The question of future of secularism in India is very important particularly at this juncture. Secularism was never meant to be the indifference to religion by our leaders and freedom fighters, who realised that India is a highly religious country. That is why even the most orthodox Hindus and Muslims accepted it as a viable ideology for India. But after independence Indian secularism followed a tortuous course and religious fundamentalism has grown dangerously in the last few decades. The Bhartiya Janta Party and the Sangh Parivar, in particular, are likely to intensify the Hindutva agenda in the future. In these political circumstances the future of secularism does not seem to be bright in the short run. But in the long run, India’s bewildering culture of pluralism, dating back many centuries, economic progress in the future and the well-established Indian democracy are factors that point to a more stable and secular polity.     

International market segmentation and Eurodebt issues

Implications of capital market segmentation for international capital structure (ICS)—capital structure consisting of equity issued in one country and debt issued in another—are examined. Necessary conditions for the emergence of ICS are analyzed under two options for debt issues (foreign debt and Eurodebt) and comparisons are made. It is shown that in cases where the project cannot support an ICS including foreign debt Eurobonds can be issued and would be profitable.     

Dams and dissent: India's first modern environmental activist and his critique of the DVC project

The inner tensions plaguing the political philosophy of ecology in India were captured in the life and times of Kapil Bhattacharjee, South Asia's first modern environmental activist. In the 1950s he courageously fought against a highly popular project, the Damodar Valley Corporation (DVC), a huge multipurpose river valley project that included a number of dams, power stations and a barrage. It was being then vended as the harbinger of unforeseen prosperity in Eastern India. As a result, some even denounced Bhattacharjee as a traitor, particularly for opposing the Farakka barrage, which he considered as a fraud on the Indian public.The ambivalence towards him in his society was matched by his own ambivalence. Here was a person who defiantly initiated, virtually single-handedly, environmental activism as we know it in this part of the world. Yet, in other respects he showed remarkable self-censorship. Brought up in the heady atmosphere of the easy rationalism of the inter-war years and in the cold war atmosphere immediately after World War II, Bhattacharjee came close to admitting — and yet shield away from actually doing so — that rivers were not merely economic resources, but also civilisational boons. The sanctity of a river, particularly its right to be itself, was never acceptable to him, except as a popular belief. And though in later life he also became a distinguished human rights activist, he never was adequately sensitive to the way some of the tribes of India bore the major brunt of the DVC. The uprooting and destitution imposed on them do not figure at all in his writings on the subject.One possible explanation of these anomalies is in Bhattacharjee's basic commitment to the urban-industrial vision and to a theory of modern-science-based progress. Between them, they ensured that while he sometimes wrote movingly about traditional knowledge systems dealing with rivers and about the dangers of large-scale intervention in nature, saving the city of Calcutta and India's industrial base always had priority in his philosophy of environmentalism.     

Does the “Zurich consensus” provide grounds for cautious optimism?

It is now clear that the so-called “Washington consensus”, the obsession with markets and the studied refusal to engage with global problems, is dead. The month of November 2008 may be seen by future generations as a turning point in human civilisation. While the Club of Rome has been warning for decades of the consequences of unsustainable growth, organisations like the World Economic Forum and the International Energy Agency have until recently supported the old market-oriented approach that assumed economic growth would solve all our problems. Now the financial crisis has exploded that myth and triggered rethinking of basic assumptions. A new consensus is emerging that recognises biophysical limits and the interlocking social, economic and environmental challenges we face. This provides grounds for cautious optimism that we may be entering a period of social learning which will allow human civilisation to survive.     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

我国集体土地收益分配制度的缺陷及重构思路

我国现行集体土地收益分配制度存在以下缺陷：农民集体和农民未能分享土地征收过程中产生的发展性利益;失地农民土地权利受到侵害;土地征收过程中政府所获收益比重过大。造成土地征收收益分配制度出现缺陷的原因是土地的动态发展性收益、农民的土地权利保障缺失及地方政府对土地财政的依赖性。针对我国现行土地征收收益分配制度存在的缺陷,本文提出以下对策建议：针对土地发展权建立合理制度;切实开展确权登记,赋予农民分享土地增值收益的法律凭证;增加中央参与土地收益的分配比例。     

Land, conflict, identity in India’s north-east: negotiating the future

Even a peripheral examination of major conflicts across the world reveals that these revolve around one critical natural resource: land. Whether in the Middle East, Ireland or closer home in Jammu and Kashmir, the battle is between those who believe in a boundary authorized by a particular political dispensation and those who believe that their ethnic and sub-nationalistic or nationalistic claims surpass such barriers. The North East of India, that little wedge of land protruding above Bangladesh, jutting into and flanked by Tibet/China, Myanmar and Bhutan, is a fascinating example of how mindsets and attitudes combined with intensely competitive and unbending views of history and geography make ethnic and demographic problems extremely difficult to resolve. Patronage by the Central Government, which is resented, and the physical and emotional distance from the mainland have combined to produce a strange psyche of dependence, bitterness and alienation in the region. Despite the seeming lack of answers for the future, it is evident that the region has to build on its natural advantage in terms of abundant natural resources. Greater degrees of autonomy with extensive powers to village “republics”, based on tradition, but with a definite change towards gender sensitivity and representation, can show the way forward.     

The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Financial Globalization: Evidence from Macro and Sectoral Data

We take a fresh look at the aggregate and distributional effects of policies to liberalize international capital flows—financial globalization. Both country‐ and industry‐level results suggest that such policies have led on average to limited output gains while contributing to significant increases in inequality. The country‐level results are based on 228 capital account liberalization episodes spanning 149 advanced and developing economies from 1970 to the present. Difference‐in‐difference estimation using industry‐level data for 23 advanced economies suggests that liberalization episodes reduce the share of labor income, particularly for industries with higher external financial dependence, higher natural propensity to use layoffs to adjust to idiosyncratic shocks, and higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor.     

Adjustment with IMF lending

Adjustment programs supported by the IMF are frequently criticized by creditor countries as involving conditions which are too lax or, once violated, too easily modified or pushed aside. At least as frequently, these same conditions are criticized by international debtors, or those adopting their interests, for being too harsh and rigid. Neither side has explained very well (1) how exactly the Fund impinges on the path of adjustment a country would choose unaided and what that path is, (2) why the Fund must be expected to accelerate adjustment to safeguard its objectives, and (3) what limits the Fund's ability to do so. This paper attempts a theoretical deduction showing how this two-sided conflict arises from the Fund's obligation to adjudicate benefits and costs in negotiating programs acceptable not only to its debtor, but also to its creditor countries.     

Futures India: society, nation-state, civilisation

The future of a phenomenon can only be understood in terms of (a) the conceptual construction one makes of it and (b) the changes in empirical content of that phenomenon. In turn, the empirical reality ought to be discerned in terms of the past-present-future dialectic. Keeping this in view, this paper begins with conceptual clarifications of the terms society, nation-state and civilization and situates India in terms of these notions. It is suggested that India’s future as a society and as a civilisation is durable although some changes in their content are inevitable. But as a ‘nation-state’ India may radically change given the contestations about it. Four competing value-orientations—cultural monism, cultural pluralism, cultural federalism and cultural subalternism—about the contemporary Indian nation-state have been identified. India’s future as a nation-state will depend upon the legitimacy these value orientations achieve in future.     

Incidence of accounting irregularities: An experiment to compare audit, review, and compilation services

My study compares the effects of three different types of CPA firm services—audits, reviews, and compilations—on the extent to which two types of accounting irregularities might occur. Using the randomized response technique, an experiment was performed where experienced MBA and Executive MBA students were asked to make decisions involving inappropriate ways to inflate income. One decision (situation #1) was whether or not to recognize a loss from a write-down of defective inventories, as would be necessary according to generally accepted accounting principles. The other decision (situation #2) was whether or not to alter the date on a shipping document so that income could be recognized in the current year instead of in the following year.For both decisions, differences in the expected direction were found among the responses from subjects in the audit, review, and compilation groups. However, only the results for situation #1 were statistically significant. In addition, subjects' perceptions about the levels of assurance provided by the three CPA firm services were similar across these services.     

Future kinship and the study of culture

Throughout the 20th century, body and machine have provided distinctive parallel metaphors for the concept of culture. But now these metaphors are merging as human lives are increasingly engineered through technonatural processes. In one imagined future, biotechnology will give us the means to determine our own genealogy and the potential to play a role in the ‘culturing’ of the future, as the natural and unpredictable transmission of human characteristics is transformed into a predictable process arising from the manipulation of the gene pool. New procreative possibilities—fertilization in vitro, gamete donation, maternal surrogacy etc—challenge us to reconstrue notions of identity and kinship; the article speculates on the implications of this for possible cultural futures.     

My vision of a better India

India is a rich country in which poor people live, a big country which does not realise its own potential. India must build on its strengths and achieve its potential to become an economic superpower with a good and just society. A number of attitudinal and structural factors, such as lack of national pride, politics based on caste and other identities, a hierarchic and corruption-ridden feudal society and the tendency to reward failure and weakness rather than success and achievement are the major hurdles that are stopping us from achieving our true potential. On the other hand, our strengths in democratically managing a multi-ethnic, multi-cultural country and our capacity to master technology are also notable. Steps and hopeful developments that show the way forward to solve our national problems and realise the vision of a better India are suggested.