Decision making under conditions of conflict

A real-world application is employed to explain three general types of decision situations that can arise under conditions of conflict. In addition, meaningful connections and relationships among these areas of decision making are clearly pointed out. To permit useful decision technologies to be employed by practitioners for better understanding and for resolving a variety of actual decision problems, a range of flexible decision support systems is discussed. Subsequently, interesting research developments contained in the upcoming sequence of 12 articles on decision making under conflict are summarized and compared. The research articles not only present unique approaches to decision making involving multiple participants, each of whom may have multiple objectives, but suggest a variety of challenging research problems to be investigated in the future.     

Decision Strategy and Structure in Households: A “Groups” Perspective

From a practical perspective, (arguably) most consumer decisions are not made in isolation of the households in which consumers are inserted, yet we commonly treat them econometrically as if they were. The purpose of this workshop was to take some initial steps in defining needed research in household decision making that structurally accounts for goal sharing, utility interdependence, taste heterogeneity, choice set formation, power structures, group size and composition, and so forth. We also considered conditions under which aggregation of tastes, utility and choices might occur and make sense from both behavioral and modeling perspectives.     

Competitive decision making: Two and a half frames

We argue that the study of competitive decision making has been heavily influenced by the frames of reference that are adopted by researchers. The dominant economic frame and the emergent behavioral frame describe largely separate phenomena and have little overlap. Drawing from examples of learning in games and markets, we show how each of these frames falls short of capturing some interesting elements in competitive decisions. We then describe how a coevolutionary perspective may be emerging as an integrative paradigm for the study of competitive decisions.This paper was prepared for the conference, Understanding Competitive Decision Making. Comments by the participants of that conference and Paul Shoemaker are gratefully acknowledged, as are discussions with Colin Camerer, Eldar Shafir, and Sharoni Shafir.     

Perspectives on representation and analysis of negotiation: Towards cognitive support systems

The rapid expansion of Decision and Negotiation Support Systems has been built mainly on decision-theoretic approaches. This has resulted in the decision maker being viewed through the lens of the problem. In this article, the focus is on the decision maker's view of the problem. Three levels of problem articulation are described. Special emphasis is placed on the needs level and the implications it carries for the cognitive and instrumental levels. The three levels of articulation, the organizational model of making decision in social settings, and the three basic approaches to decision making form the basis for computer support focused on understanding and change rather than preferences and outcomes. We argue that in the dynamic, interactive context characteristic of negotiations, a cognitive support system based on restructurable modeling provides a richer basis for support.     

Artificial intelligence and the future of work: Human-AI symbiosis in organizational decision making

Artificial intelligence (AI) has penetrated many organizational processes, resulting in a growing fear that smart machines will soon replace many humans in decision making. To provide a more proactive and pragmatic perspective, this article highlights the complementarity of humans and AI and examines how each can bring their own strength in organizational decision-making processes typically characterized by uncertainty, complexity, and equivocality. With a greater computational information processing capacity and an analytical approach, AI can extend humans’ cognition when addressing complexity, whereas humans can still offer a more holistic, intuitive approach in dealing with uncertainty and equivocality in organizational decision making. This premise mirrors the idea of intelligence augmentation, which states that AI systems should be designed with the intention of augmenting, not replacing, human contributions.     

Household preference revisions and decision making: The role of disconfirmation

In this paper, we examine the role of disconfirmation as an important determinant of household preference revisions and decision making. Although prior research has examined decision influence and information exchange in household decision making, the impact of disconfirmation on individual family member preferences and the joint household preference has not been explicitly studied. Analogous to the main types of social influence found within groups, we identify two types of disconfirmation that impact individual preferences arising from family interaction or discussion. These two types of disconfirmation are informational disconfirmation, related to new product information revealed in family discussion being different than one's prior beliefs, and preference disconfirmation, where a family member has incorrect expectations of the preferences of other influential household members. An empirical study involving a household vacation decision demonstrates significant disconfirmation effects in explaining individuals' post-discussion preferences, as well as the joint household preference and decision. Based on the empirical results, we discuss various implications and suggest future research to study the specific consequences of disconfirmation in household decisions.     

Defining a right problem in group decision and negotiation: Feeling and evolutionary generating procedures

It is not unusual that decision makers define and solve a wrong problem. Here we develop an operational procedure for defining a right or correct problem. A problem may be represented as—a problem representation defining a problem consists of—two evolving hierarchies of relations, as discussed in the article. Rightness in a problem representation requires rightness in these relations which are beliefs held by a decision maker. Operational definition and validation of rightness in these relations, that is, retaining them as correct, is by feeling and by specified evolutionary generating procedures for examining, changing (evolving), and retaining these relations. Based on rightness in these relations, we discuss right group problem definition and solution in the general case where information is not fully shared (nonshared) among individuals in the group. Thus, our work contributes to procedural rationality—how decisions should be or are made—in individual and group decision-making and associated group decision and negotiation support systems (GDNSS).     

Cognitive hurdles in the use of decision support systems to enhance problem understanding

Computer-assisted decision support systems have been widely promoted as a means of enhancing problem understanding in crisis and noncrisis decision making. Clinical observation of actual applications of a particular category of software for interactive decisions (CONAN, DECISIONMAKER) have identified cognitive hurdles in the use of such systems. These hurdles not only pose a challenge to the development of such normative interventions in the decision process, but also an opportunity for furthering the shift to a new psychologically informed paradigm for decision making.     

High Stakes Decision Making: Normative,Descriptive and Prescriptive Considerations

This paper reviews the state of the art of research on individual decision-making in high-stakes, low-probability settings. A central theme is that resolving high-stakes decisions optimally poses a formidable challenge not only to naïve decision makers, but also to users of more sophisticated tools, such as decision analysis. Such decisions are difficult to make because precise information about probabilities is not available, and the dynamics of the decision are complex. When faced with such problems, naïve decision-makers fall prey to a wide range of potentially harmful biases, such as failing to recognize a high-stakes problem, ignoring the information about probabilities that does exist, and responding to complexity by accepting the status quo. A proposed agenda for future research focuses on how the process and outcomes of high-stakes decision making might be improved.     

Recurrent Marketing Decisions: Decision Complexity,Decision Focus,and Firm Performance

In this paper we examine the nature of the decision-making process for recurrent marketing decisions and its effects on firm performance. A conceptual model of recurrent decision-making in a competitive environment is developed and used as a framework for analyzing 96 tactical decisions made by 35 management groups in the last three periods of a management simulation. The decisions were based entirely on a set of decision rules developed by the management groups. The decision rules were coded for whether they were internally or externally focused and how complex their decision process was. These two factors were then used to predict firm performance. There are a number of important results. The greater the uncertainty in the link between a decision variable and its outcome, i) the more likely managers are to prespecify the value of the decision variable rather than construct a decision rule, ii) the less complex the decision rules that are constructed, and iii) the greater the proportion of internally-focused decision rules. In addition, the focus of a decision rule, but not the complexity of the process—independent of the focus—is positively related to performance with firms that focus on both internal and external factors doing best.     

多元化战略管理:决策程序及其理论依据

通过对多元化战略的理论回顾,总结多元化战略管理研究的理论流派,多元化战略管理理论对中国企业进行多元化决策的指导意义,并创造性地提出了多元化战略管理决策程序及其理论依据,试图初步建立起多元化理论与企业实践操作间联系的纽带。     

Common Ground, Complex Problems and Decision Making

Organisations increasingly have to deal with complex problems. They often use multidisciplinary teams to cope with such problems where different team members have different perspectives on the problem, different individual knowledge and skills, and different approaches on how to solve the problem. In order to solve those problems, team members have to share their existing knowledge and construct new knowledge. Theory suggests that negotiation of common ground can positively affect team decision making on the solution of complex problems, by facilitating knowledge sharing across perspectives. In a small scale study with student groups, external representations supported by a specific negotiation ontology were used to facilitate negotiation by encouraging participants to make their beliefs and values explicit. Results showed that the external representations supported clarifying contributions to group members and increased group participation in discussions.     

Ethical Decision Making and the Employed Lawyer

This article addresses one of the more disturbing questions raised by the major financial failures of the recent past; namely, how it could be that professionals, highly trained both in ethics and technical disciplines, should apparently collude with management in corporate misbehaviour. The article builds on evidence suggesting that professionals in employment contexts find ways of adapting in order to minimise perceived or actual conflict between their professional and organizational obligations and that this, in turn, may affect the way in which they exercise professional judgment. It uses identity theory to propose that professionals may adopt modified identities when employed and that these identities may be expressed, in part, in the way in which they resolve ethical dilemmas. The article reports on the results of a qualitative study in which corporate counsel showed evidence of adopting these identities. The findings suggest that this line of research offers insight into a far more complex world of employed professionals than that traditionally hypothesised and that the popular approach of regulators and others to monitoring corporate governance by appointing professionals as gate-keepers within the organization is perhaps problematic.     

Ethical Decision Making: A Comparison of Computer- Supported and Face-to-face Group

This study compares computer-supported groups, i.e., groups using group support systems (GSS), and face-to-face groups using ethical decision-making tasks. A laboratory experiment was conducted using five-person groups of information systems professionals. Face-to-face (FTF) and GSS groups were compared in terms of their decision outcomes and group members' reactions. The results revealed that computer-supported and face-to-face groups showed no significant difference in terms of the decision outcomes of choice shift and decision polarity. However, FTF groups reached their decisions more quickly and they were more successful in attaining group consensus than GSS groups. Subjects evaluated face-to-face communication more favorably than GSS interaction on most post-group measures related to perceived group processes and satisfaction. Despite these outcomes, some possibilities for using GSS technology in an ethical decision making context are examined.     

Competency,prior performance,opportunity framing,and competitive response: Exploring some behavioral decision theory perspectives

Theoretical perspectives from behavioral decision research and strategic management are employed to make competing predictions of managers' competitive response decisions. Results indicate that responses of greater magnitude are more likely when an ambiguous situation surrounding the market entry of a new competitor is framed as an opportunity rather than as a threat and when the prior performance and competency of the firm are at high levels. Faster responses are more likely under high levels of competency, especially when prior performance has been good. These results run counter to two of three predictions of behavioral decision research and raise questions about limits to the generalizability of these theoretical perspectives.     

Differences between workstations and keypad group support systems: Implications for keypad GSS facilitators

Organizations are successfully using group support systems (GSS) to improve efficiency, effectiveness, and satisfaction in organizational meetings. Meeting success relies on making an appropriate match between group, taks, and technology. This responsibility often falls to the meeting facilitator. This article draws upon GSS and facilitation literature to develop a framework for the discussion of effective facilitation in workstation and keypad meeting environments. The article identifies differences between the systems and how they impact upon the behavior of the meeting facilitators and their choice of technology. Compensatory actions are proposed for keypad facilitators to address the lack of key workstation features. Keypad strengths are also identified to show the opportunities available to facilitators to maximize the benefits of using these GSS. Further, it is proposed that different types of GSS are not mutually exclusive and should be seen as complementary components of a suite of GSS tools designed to support organizational goals.     

Consumer socialization,social structural factors and decision‐making styles: a case study of adolescents in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to investigate how the process of consumer socialization will determine adolescents’ decision‐making styles. Eight decision‐making styles were conceptualized as outcomes of the socialization process, which is acquired via interaction with socialization agents, namely parents, peers, printed media, television commercials and in‐school education. The study also proposed five social structural variables (social class, gender, ethnicity, residence and religion) as being associated with the socialization agents and decision‐making styles. The study sample consisted of 934 adolescents between the ages of 16 and 19 years. The data were collected using a self‐administered questionnaire and analysed with the SPSS computer program. As a result of regression analyses, significant relationships were found between social structural factors and socialization processes, suggesting that the influence of socialization agents on adolescents may vary according to certain demographic characteristics. Significant relationships were also found between social structural factors and socialization processes. Peers appeared to be the most important agents of consumer socialization, contributing to a variety of desirable as well as undesirable consumer decision styles. Printed media and television commercials were also found to be significant sources of the acquisition of both desirable and undesirable decision‐making styles. Parents and in‐school education, however, were insignificant in the acquisition of any decision‐making styles among adolescents. Information obtained from this study could be useful to government agencies and consumer educators. The most revealing finding of this study is that parents did not contribute to the formulation of decision‐making orientation for adolescents. This points to the need for consumer educators to take steps in designing programmes that will involve parents as primary socialization agents at home; this may be facilitated via printed materials. Apart from this, the information can also be helpful in enabling marketers to be more effective in targeting various adolescent markets by formulating marketing strategies according to demographic factors, socialization process and decision‐making styles.     

Consciousness, Spirituality and Right Decision/Negotiation in Purposeful Complex Adaptive Systems

Both cybernetic and self-organizing, purposeful complex adaptive systems (PCAS) express purpose by solving problems defined by choosing and delivering values to participants as operational goals through decision making. Individuals, groups, organizations, and economies are PCAS. Here we focus on indviduals and groups. Evolutionary Systems Design (ESD) is a universal (culture independent) general problem solving, formal modeling/design framework for PCAS that can be computer implemented in same time/same place or telework modes. Formally, in ESD sets of elements and their relations modeling a PCAS evolve through cybernetics/self organization. Spirituality and the concept of right decision/negotiation in PCAS are discussed in relation to consciousness. Rightness comes from spirituality, i.e., consciousness experiencing oneness. Oneness is integrally bound with love; hence the term oneness/love. Through right decision/negotiation PCAS try to realize their ultimate purpose to live Two (the relative, the process of all there is) as One (the absolute, all there is). Oneness/love, connectedness to One, promotes problem solving and negotiation - expressed formally in the ESD problem representation - that is at the same time right. Simply put, right problem solving requires oneness/love and delivers oneness/love. Computer and receiver modes of consciousness are discussed in relation to oneness/love and its absence experienced as separateness/fear. Ways to transit from the latter to the former are considered. P.L. Yu's Habitual Domain (HD) framework is introduced and discussed in relation to ESD. Evolutionary heuristics for evolution of an ESD right problem representation through cybernetics/self-organization are presented based on combined HD and ESD concepts. Then operational procedures for defining and validating a right problem for an individual or group and associated right decision/negotiation outcome are considered. Thus, the work contributes to procedural rationality - how decisions should be or are made - in purposeful complex adaptive systems. The paper suggests that for humans to live fully (awake) is to live in our love-based spirituality, in the moment, consciousness experiencing oneness/love at the edge of chaos, challenged in our purpose to live Two as One by spiritual or right decision/negotiation through cybernetics/self-organization, i.e., problem solving under oneness. Artificial agents in PCAS may participate in right decision/negotiation. They may in principle have consciousness but the nature of the subjective experience is unclear.