The global arms trade network 1950–2007

Using SIPRI data on all international transfers of major conventional weapons 1950–2007, we study the relationship between differences in polity and arms trade. To study whether states tend to trade arms within their political vicinity we estimate gravity models of the likelihood of trade at the bilateral level and study the evolution of the global network over time. We find a stable negative relationship between differences in polity and the likelihood of arms trade for the duration of the Cold War, but not in recent years. In line with these results, the global arms trade network changes drastically over the sample period in several respects: it grows more dense, clustered and decentralized over time. The differences between the NATO and Warsaw Pact sub-networks that we find corroborate the common perception that the Warsaw Pact was more strongly centralized around the USSR than NATO around the UK, the US and France.     

A contribution to the chronology of turning points in global economic activity (1980–2012)

We propose a novel chronology of global business cycles based on industrial production data for a sample of 85 countries at a monthly frequency from 1980 until 2012 and the Bry and Boschan (1971) algorithm. We assess the methodology with statistical tools of signal detection theory and against existing chronologies of country-specific turning points. Finally, we conclude by introducing and evaluating a logit model of the probability of a global downturn occurring up to 12 months ahead. This model uses the macro and financial indicators tracked by the Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas (see Grossman et al., 2014) to offer advanced warning of upcoming turning points of the global cycle.     

Evolution of the Public–Private Sector Wage Differential during Transition in Estonia

This article estimates the public–private sector wage differential in Estonia over the transition period. Quantile regression is used with a dataset from Estonian Labour Force Surveys from 1989 to 2004 for this purpose. The results of the analysis indicate that the public–private sector wage differential was negative during early transition but has decreased subsequently. It also shows that employees with low potential wages tend to gain more or lose less from working in the public sector than workers with high potential wages. The public–private sector wage differential is negatively related to the number of public employees and tends to be counter-cyclical. Political cycles have no effect on the public–private sector wage differential in Estonia.     

The Evolution of University–Industry Linkages in Thailand

This paper aims to examine the evolution and major transition of Thailand's higher education system and its contribution to deepening and broadening local university-industry linkages (UILs), especially in Thailand's high-tech, mid-tech, and science-based industries. The ties with universities were deployed differently across sectors. Key driving factors are individual firms' strategies and efforts to upgrade their production bases in Thailand and sector-specific government initiatives to facilitate university-industry collaboration. While the UILs in the automotive sector are limited, the pharmaceuticals and electronics have shown collective effort in establishing sector-wide UILs.     

How global is FDI? Evidence from the analysis of Theil indices

It is open to question whether the intensified worldwide competition for FDI has reduced its traditionally strong concentration in a few large and relatively advanced host countries. We calculate and decompose Theil indices to track changes in absolute and relative concentration of FDI during the period 1970–2013. We find that both absolute and relative concentration decreased when excluding offshore financial centers from the overall sample. In addition to the narrowing gap between OECD and non-OECD countries, the concentration across non-OECD countries declined for both the absolute and relative measures. This is also true for major subgroups of non-OECD countries. Finally, recent developments indicate that low-income countries are no longer at the losing end of the competition for FDI.     

On the employment effects of outward FDI: the case of Spain, 1995–2011

In this article, we analyse the impact on domestic employment resulting from outward FDI performed by Spanish firms, using industry data for the period 1995–2011. Together with the effects on the total employment, we differentiate the effects according to the particular groups of countries and activities to which those FDI outflows are addressed. In addition, the impact of outward FDI on the demand for labour is also analysed separately for high and low skill levels of the labour force.     

The behaviour of the US consumer price index 1913–2003: a study of seasonality in the monthly US CPI

This article analyses the seasonality in the monthly consumer price index (CPI) over the period January 1913 to December 2003. We examine three types of month effects: if the mean of monthly CPI changes of the entire data set, and of a given month were significantly different from zero; if the mean of monthly CPI changes of a given month was different from the mean of the other months; and if the variance of the monthly CPI changes for a given month was different from the variance of the other months. The mean of monthly CPI changes for the entire data set (0.27%) was found to be significantly greater than zero. The means of monthly changes show a downward trend from September to December. When the data are sliced into three sub-periods, we find an increasing trend in the means and medians of monthly changes but a decreasing trend in the SDs of the monthly changes. The mean of monthly CPI changes during the republican presidencies (0.15%) was significantly lower than during the democratic presidencies (0.38%).     

A tale of two Ginis in the US, 1921–2012

Following a methodology by Jantzen and Volpert (2012), we use IRS Adjusted Gross Income data for the US (1921–2012) to estimate two Gini indices representing inequality at the bottom and the top of the income distribution, and to calculate the overall Gini as a function of the parameters underlying the two indices. A steady increase in the overall Gini since the Second World War actually hides two different periods of distributional changes. First, the increase in inequality from the mid 1940s to the late 1970s is driven by rising inequality at the bottom of the income distribution that more than offsets a decrease in inequality at the top. The implication is that middle-income earners gained relative to high-incomes, and especially relative to low-income earners. Second, the rise in the Gini after 1981 is driven by rising inequality at the top. Third, top-driven inequality follows a U-shaped trajectory consistent with Piketty and Saez (2003, 2006). Fourth, the welfare effects of the different distributional changes behind increasing inequality can be evaluated in light of the Lorenz-dominance criterion by Atkinson (1970): we argue that the rise in inequality since 1981 is much more likely to be associated with a social welfare loss net of compensating growth.     

Influencing factors of disability among the elderly in China, 2003–2016: application of Bayesian quantile regression

Abstract

Background: More and more disabled elderly need long-term care as China becomes an aging society. In 2016, there were 220 million people over the age of 60, and nearly 10 million completely disabled elderly people who cannot complete Activities of Daily Living (ADLs). Therefore, the topic of influencing factors for disability among the elderly in China has attracted close attention from researchers, most of which use the traditional empirical methods, such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic.

Objective: The purpose of this paper was to introduce the Bayesian Quantile Regression (BQR) method to the topic of the disabled elderly, which was achieved by using BQR to study the influencing factors of disability among the elderly in China during 2003–2016.

Methods: This paper was the first attempt to use the BQR for the influencing factors of disability among the elderly in China. Furthermore, a comparison was made between the regression results of BQR, OLS, Quantile Regression (QR), and Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR).

Results: It was found that there was a relatively stable relationship between chronic diseases and disability, although there was a little difference in different quantiles. In addition, the BQR can obtain results similar to the traditional method. For instance, the coefficient of chronic diseases (to total disability) obtained by OLS, QR, and BLR were basically consistent (around 0.778), which was similar to BQR. The BQR not only provided estimates for all the quantiles, but also provided upper and lower values of a certain confidence interval.

Conclusions: By applying the BQR to the influencing factors of disability among the elderly in China, we reached the conclusion that BQR methods are adaptable for this research topic because of their characteristics and advantages over the traditional methods, such as less strict constraints, the estimates for all quantiles, and the combination of historical information with prior information. Moreover, the BQR method appropriately obtained the lower and upper values in a confidence interval, which can provide prediction space for the future.     

The share of the global energy mix: Signs of convergence?

This paper investigates the convergence behaviour regarding the share of global energy mix, as measured by primary energy consumption. Recent studies that employ stationary tests of panel data suggest that such data support the convergence hypothesis; however, some drawbacks exist, as these studies rely on methods that do not necessarily imply a sufficient condition for convergence. This paper adopts the concept of relative convergence as proposed by Phillips and Sul (2007), which employs a time‐varying, idiosyncratic component. We choose to focus on various sources’ global primary energy consumption and investigate the long‐ run dynamic behaviour by source. The key finding of this paper is that two distinct clubs of convergence of energy can be determined: renewable and non‐renewable energy clubs of convergence.     

Determinants of the income velocity of money in Portugal: 1891–1998

This paper performs a long-run time series analysis of the behaviour of the income velocity of money in Portugal between 1891 and 1998 by assessing the importance of both macroeconomic and institutional factors and looking for particularities in the Portuguese case. We estimate two cointegration vectors for the income velocity of money, macroeconomic variables and institutional variables. It is apparent that one of these vectors reflects the relationship between income velocity and macroeconomic variables, while the other reflects the relationship between income velocity and institutional variables. Moreover, a regression analysis reveals that the usual U-shaped pattern is displayed with a relatively late inflection point located around 1970, which is consistent with the Spanish case. It is further noted that this is a feature of countries with a late economic and institutional development process.     

The Evolution of Income Composition Inequality in Italy, 1989–2016

We study the evolution of inequality in income composition in terms of capital and labor income in Italy between 1989 and 2016. We document a rise in the share of capital income accruing to the bottom of the distribution, while the top of the distribution increases its share of labor income. This implies a falling degree of income composition inequality in the period considered and a weaker relationship between the functional and personal distribution of income in Italy. This result is robust to various specifications of self-employment income; nonetheless, it hinges crucially on the treatment of rental incomes. While the dynamics of imputed rents has brought about a more equitable distribution of capital incomes across the income distribution, that of actual rents has led to higher concentration of capital incomes at the top in the decade preceding the outbreak of the financial crisis. Finally, we conceptualize a rule of thumb for policy makers seeking to reduce income inequality in the long run.     

Capital flows in a transitional economy and the sterilization dilemma: The hungarian experience, 1992–97

This paper evaluates Hungary's dilemma with sterilization in the context of the record of countries elsewhere that have experienced similar capital inflow episodes, e.g., Latin America and Asia. The study focuses on the short-run impact of sterilization on monetary policy. The empirical results indicate that sterilized interventions by the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) did not neutralize capital inflows until possibly the middle of 1995, following a change in government and, more significantly, a change in exchange rate regimes. Indeed, it appears that monetary policy was overly restrictive and that, for a time, the NBH overcompensated for the inflows of capital.     

On the asymmetric effects of exchange-rate volatility on trade flows: Evidence from US–UK Commodity Trade

We consider the response of each of the 67 industries that trade between the United States and United Kingdom to the volatility of the real dollar–pound exchange rate. When we follow previous research and estimate a linear ARDL model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility in 22 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom that last into the long run only in nine industries. As for the UK exports to the United States, we find short-run effects in 18 industries that last into the long run in 15 industries. However, when we estimate a nonlinear model for each industry, we find short-run effects of volatility on 41 US exporting industries and on 43 UK exporting industries, all in an asymmetric manner. Short-run asymmetric effects lasted into long-run asymmetric effects in 24 US exporting industries to the United Kingdom and in 33 UK exporting industries to the United States. While total trade shares of industries from the linear models were negligible, those of the industries from the nonlinear models were significant in size, in the tune of one-third of the trade.     

Net private capital flows and economic growth–the case of emerging Asian economies

This article makes an exploratory empirical investigation into the relationship between net private capital flows and economic growth using a panel dataset from emerging Asian countries, namely South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines, over the period 1980–2001. Overall, this article indicates that net private capital helps to promote economic growth for the countries in the sample. In addition, this article also supports the view that net private capital flows will better contribute to economic growth under a sound policy and economic environment. This article also seeks to improve the estimation results by controlling for reverse causality as an econometric method that can control, for reverse causality is very important to examining the relationship between net private capital flows and economic growth. To tackle this issue, this article employs the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique, which is an econometric technique that can handle the reverse causality using the lagged explanatory variables as instruments.     

Knowledge sourcing and firm performance in an industrializing economy: the case of Taiwan (1992–2003)

We examine the impact of R&D and technology imports on firm performance in Taiwan??s manufacturing industry in a policy context of industrial upgrading. To do so, we estimate a Translog production function on two panels (covering 1992?C1995 and 1997?C2003), using stochastic frontier models. We find that the effects of both knowledge inputs become significant in a larger number of industries in the second panel. These results suggest that the policies encouraging innovation implemented from 1991 onwards paid off in the second half of the 1990s, with innovation driving firm sales. In traditional industries, the effect of innovation can be interpreted as an effort to catch up with the global technology frontier. In the electronics and high-technology industries, it rather testifies of the emergence of a new domain of specialization for Taiwan??which was largely enabled by the aforementioned innovation policies.     

Portfolio flows and the US dollar–yen exchange rate

This paper investigates the effects of portfolio flows on the US dollar–Japanese yen exchange rate changes over the period 1988:01–2011:04. Using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching framework, the results suggest that the impact of portfolio flows on the dollar–yen exchange rate changes is state-dependent. In particular, the results show that portfolio inflows from Japan toward the US, more than monetary variables, strengthen the probability of remaining in the dollar–yen appreciation (low volatility) state. Therefore, credit controls on the flows can be used as a policy tool to pursue economic and financial stability.     

Neither market nor hierarchy—coordination costs in the allocation of track capacity in the Swedish railway network

Transaction costs have been an issue since the advent of the deregulation of the European railway markets in the 1990s. Transaction cost economics received renewed attention in research on the deregulated railway markets in the EU after the publications of two influential reports in the early 2010s. In this article, we develop a model that enables classification and measurement of transaction costs and other coordination costs in deregulated markets. This model is then used to analyze the costs of path allocation in the Swedish railway sector and to compare the results with findings in previous research. We also discuss the economic rationale of the distribution of coordination costs among the involved parties. Our key empirical findings are that the total coordination costs in the Swedish market-mimicking path allocation process are as low as or lower than the most cost-efficient market coordination processes studied in railway markets, and that the state administrations take on nearly all the coordination costs in order to minimize the effects of opportunism, rent-seeking and information impactedness. Another finding is that the size of the coordination costs found by different studies seems to be dependent on whether a bottom-up or a top-down approach is used.     

Transmission of shocks across global real estate and equity markets: An examination of the 2007–2008 housing crisis

This study analyses the impact of the 2007–2008 U.S. financial crisis on the structure of interdependence among several major global real estate and equity markets. Moreover, it performs a step-by-step comparative analysis to evaluate similarities and differences in the convergence patterns of global real estate markets vis-à-vis global equity markets. Long-run results indicate that global real estate markets were less integrated than global equity markets prior to the crisis. Since the crisis, however, both global real estate and global equity markets have become highly integrated with the U.S. real estate and equity markets, respectively, and have fully converged. Short-run analyses indicate that during the pre-crisis period, global real estate markets were highly exogenous and independent. In contrast, global equity markets were comparatively more interdependent with one another and more endogenous. After the crisis, however, both global real estate and equity markets reacted strongly to shocks emanating from the U.S. markets, although the impact of the U.S. real estate market on the global real estate market is more pronounced than the effect of the U.S. equity market on the global equity markets. Finally, the study shows that U.S. real estate and equity markets are the channels of transmission or the sources of trends that drive global markets over the long-run and the short-run.