On the predictive power of ARJI volatility forecasts for Bitcoin

Motivated by the recent literature on cryptocurrency volatility dynamics, this paper adopts the ARJI, GARCH, EGARCH, and CGARCH models to explore their capabilities to make out-of-sample volatility forecasts for Bitcoin returns over a daily horizon from 2013 to 2018. The empirical results indicate that the ARJI jump model can cope with the extreme price movements of Bitcoin, showing comparatively superior in-sample goodness-of-fit, as well as out-of-sample predictive performance. However, due to the excessive volatility swings on the cryptocurrency market, the realized volatility of Bitcoin prices is only marginally explained by the GARCH genre of employed models.     

What drives the Bitcoin price? A factor augmented error correction mechanism investigation

This article aims to determine what drives the price of Bitcoin. To achieve this aim, a large set of data is analysed using VEC models augmented by factors representing unobservable economic forces. They have been obtained by means of principal component analysis. This method enables us to contribute to the existing literature on Bitcoin in two ways. First, we employ the dimension reduction technique to combine variables from several papers. Second, we estimate several unobservable economic concepts instead of utilizing proxy variables as is usually done. We find that the main factor driving the Bitcoin price is its popularity. Hence, our result not only confirms some previous findings but reinforces them by providing a better definition of popularity. Finally, we conclude that the Bitcoin price is not affected by supply and demand factors in the way that is natural for conventional currencies.     

The evaluation of the performance of UK American unit trusts

This article examines the performance of 85 UK unit trusts with North American investment objectives between January 1985 and December 1996 using unconditional and conditional performance measures. The paper finds that, on average, the trusts register insignificant performance to each of the respective benchmark portfolios. In addition there is no evidence of any predictability in performance. The results of the article are consistent with market efficiency in that unit trusts do not, on average, possess private information, higher expenses tend not to improve performance, and trusts are not able to consistently outperform the market.     

基于风险补偿的企业债券定价研究

在有效市场中,企业债券的超额收益是对其所面临的风险可能导致损失的补偿,企业债券的理论价格是表征资金时间价值的无风险收益率和风险溢价的函数。根据市场无风险收益率、违约风险溢价,以及流动性风险溢价所遵循的随机波动方程,并考虑债券的违约回收率,本文构建了基于风险补偿的企业债券理论价格模型,并对2006年第3季度至2010年第1季度中国债券市场中32只企业债券的实际价格和理论价格进行了实证检验。研究发现,绝大多数企业债券的实际价格与理论价格差异不大,但少数中长期债券的实际价格系统性地低于理论价格;公用事业类企业债券的价格对市场信息不够敏感;我国债券市场上存在较多的套利资金。最后从所做的研究中,得出了完善我国债券市场的一些启示。     

Junior is rich: bequests as consumption

We explore the consequences for asset pricing of admitting a bequest motive into an otherwise standard overlapping generations economy where agents trade equity, a risk free asset and consol bonds. With low risk aversion, the calibrated model produces realistic values for the mean equity premium and the risk free rate, the variance of the equity premium, and the ratio of bequests to wealth. However, the variance of the risk free rate is unrealistically high. Security prices tend to be substantially higher in an economy with bequests as compared to an otherwise identical one where bequests are absent. We are able to keep the prices sufficiently low to generate reasonable returns and premia by stipulating that a portion of the bequests skips a generation and is received by the young.

“You never actually own a Patek Philippe. You merely take care of it for the next generation.” Patek Philippe & Co.

We thank John Cox, Jean Pierre Danthine, Felix Kubler, Edward Prescott and seminar participants at The Bank of Italy, Columbia, Lausanne, Mannheim, MIT, Lugano, SIFR, the University of New South Wales, USC, Yale and the University of Zurich for insightful xcomments. The usual caveat applies.     

Product differentiation in the German soft drink market: which attributes matter?

In this study, we apply a hedonic pricing model to a unique data set of the German carbonated soft drink market. We distinguish between traditional brands and private label brands and include a variety of product attributes such as flavour, sugar content and bottle size in our analysis. Our results show that most traditional brands yield highest price premiums. However, organic niche products seem to be even more profitable. Also, unconventional flavours, small bottle sizes and retailing in supermarkets lead to higher price premiums. Private label brands are associated with highest negative price premiums.     

Forward-premium puzzle: is it time to abandon the usual regression?

The forward premium puzzle is usually evidenced by the rejection of the null hypothesis in the uncovered interest parity (UIP) regression. Because this parity need only hold in a risk-neutral world, a risk adjustment term is missing from the equation if speculation in foreign exchange markets is risky. We deal with this issue following the literature which assumes that discounted returns on foreign government bonds are log-normal, so we can linearize the Euler pricing equations (in level) and obtain a modified UIP system for which the risk adjustment term is obtained by applying to the pricing kernel-based relations a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean model. However, here we innovate by adopting a methodology which differs from all these related works. We construct and use a stochastic discount factor that does not depend on a specific model, by residing in the space of returns which we extract from the data by simply imposing the orthogonality restrictions represented by the Euler equations. So, we devise a purely statistical pricing kernel that performs well in in-sample level equations. Somewhat disappointingly, the risk premium inclusion in the conventional regression changes neither the significance nor the magnitude of the forecasting power of the forward premium for most currencies we study. The contrasting performance of the tests in level and in logs suggests that linearization may be to blame.     

Financial amplification of foreign exchange risk premia

Theories of financial frictions in international capital markets suggest that financial intermediaries' balance sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We present empirical evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals, and a component associated with financial intermediary balance sheets. Relative to the benchmark model with only macroeconomic state variables, balance sheets amplify the U.S. dollar risk premium. We discuss applications to financial stability monitoring.     

Pricing inputs to induce efficient Make-or-Buy decisions

We investigate input pricing regimes that induce efficient Make-or-Buy decisions by entrants when there is constant returns in the production of the input(s) and simultaneous noncooperative price competition in downstream retail markets. Necessary and sufficient conditions for efficient Make-or-Buy decisions are derived. The necessary condition shows that input prices are relevant for Make-or-Buy decisions except under restrictive and often unverifiable assumptions on the demand structure, and that the least informationally-demanding way to ensure efficient Make-or-Buy decisions is to price inputs at marginal cost provided changes in the entrant’s cost have a “normal” effect on the entrant’s profit. The conditions also show that pricing the incumbent’s input at the entrant’s marginal cost always ensures efficient Make- or-Buy decisions. The extent to which input prices can depart from marginal cost while still inducing efficient Make-or-Buy decisions increases with the efficiency differential between the incumbent and entrant and with the demand displacement ratio.      

带有价格波动项的行为资产定价模型研究--投资与消费之间的均衡分析

文章根据我国股市的特点,对Barberis、Huang和Santos(2001)的模型进行了改进,推导出了带有波动项的行为资产定价模型.并用该模型对西方7国无风险利率及股票溢价进行了检验,发现该CCAPM模型不能解释我国证券市场的溢价现象,Mehra和Prescott(1985)发现的"股票溢价之谜"在我国同样存在.相比以前的分析方法,文章所考虑的模型比较符合我国证券市场的特征.文章最后利用经修正的模型对我国股票市场的溢价进行了分析.     

Pricing fx forwards in OTC markets – new evidence for the pricing mechanism when faced with counterparty risk

By using daily foreign exchange (fx) market data for five major currency pairs, this article shows that, especially since the beginning of the financial crisis, pricing of fx forwards has not matched the pricing formula derived from the covered interest rate parity (CIP). This corresponds to previous empirical results. Therefore, the CIP leads to systematic over- or underpricing. Overall, four statistically significant explanatory factors for this systematic over- or underpricing have been identified – the volatility in the difference between the interest rate levels, the spot price, the fx forward spread and the counterparty risk. In particular, the high significance of the counterparty risk demonstrates that pricing models for fx forwards should be reviewed.     

Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs,asset pricing,and risk sharing in complete financial markets

Given a competitive equilibrium in complete asset markets, we propose a method that aggregates heterogeneous individual beliefs into a single “market probability,” which, if commonly shared by investors, generates the same marginal valuation of assets by the market as well as by each individual investor. As a result of the aggregation process, the market portfolio may have to be scalarly adjusted, upward or downward, a reflection of an aggregation bias due to the diversity of beliefs. From a dual viewpoint, the standard construction of an expected utility-maximizing aggregate investor designed to represent the economy in equilibrium, is shown to be also valid in the case of heterogeneous beliefs, modulo the above scalar adjustment of the market portfolio, thereby generating an Adjusted version of the Consumption based Capital Asset Pricing Model (ACCAPM). We analyze how the allocation of aggregate and individual risks relates to deviations of individual beliefs from the aggregate market probability. Finally, we identify the channels through which the distribution of beliefs and other microeconomic characteristics (incomes, attitudes toward risk) across investors impact the pricing of risky assets an may contribute to explaining the equity premium puzzle.     

Loan price modelling for local governments using risk premium analysis

Previous studies have highlighted the question of government loan interest as one of great current importance. Government borrowing levels are high, and reducing interest payments would generate savings to meet other spending needs and/or to lower taxation, thus supporting the sustainability of public finances. However, no previous study has presented a method for a local government to calculate its own credit risk and thus be in a position to negotiate lower interest rates on its borrowing. This article defines a financial model that enables local governments to estimate the interest rate payable on a bank loan, based on their credit risk premium, in accordance with the Basel II rules and the findings of our empirical study of large local governments.     

A flexible approach to estimate the equity premium

In this article, we estimate the risk aversion for households accounting for their lifetime consumption risk. Households take into account the overall lifetime uninsured consumption risk when optimizing their resources, which based on micro data varies across households. Thus, representing households’ consumption by merging cross-sectional micro data into the single Euler equation (the common approach for estimating risk aversion based on consumption-based asset pricing theory) may be too rough an approximation, leading to biased results with respect to risk aversion. Our results suggest that consumption-based asset pricing models that were rejected in several studies do in fact fit the data when we account for households’ lifetime consumption risk. This finding also has implications for long-run aggregate consumption-based asset pricing models.