影响中国贸易条件的制度因素与改革方略

随着中国对外贸易的快速发展,中国的贸易条件成为经济学者们讨论的焦点,如何改善中国的贸易务件也成为中国 经济发展所面临的严峻课题。本文通过深入分析指出,当前不合理的贸易制度是制约中国贸易条件改善的根本因素,并在此 基础上提出了利于改善中国贸易条件的贸易发展战略以及为实施该战略所应采取的相应的改革措施。     

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This article analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994–2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalization schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North–South-FTAs and South–South-FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products.     

试论国内区际贸易与对外贸易利益的关系

对外贸易的发展理应建立在国内区际贸易充分开展的基础上。国内区际贸易的开展对对外贸易利益的取得具有重要的意义。我国改革开放过程中的国内市场分割现象,使得国内区际贸易滞后于对外贸易快速发展,并制约了对外贸易利益最大化的实现。本文的政策结论是通过加快改革逐步实现国内经济市场化和一体化以提高外贸利益。     

The impact of cultural exceptions: audiovisual services trade and trade policy

Audiovisual services such as music and movies in digital formats have gained substantial importance over the last decade, while remaining one of the sectors with the lowest number of commitments by WTO members. Based on a novel data set, this article analyses the role of trade restrictions on audiovisual services in a gravity model. We find that countries with WTO commitments trade more audiovisual services, while both exports and imports are lower for countries which impose policies to curb inflows of foreign cultural services.     

选择一般贸易还是加工贸易？——基于制造业企业层面微观数据的实证研究

经济全球一体化进程中，我国企业选择参与国际贸易的方式主要受哪些因素影响？参与国际贸易方式的不同会对企业利润、财务状况构成什么样的影响或制约？这些是企业参与国际化不容回避的问题。采用固定效应模型面板回归方法，根据2005-2006年中国制造业企业层面微观数据，对企业的贸易方式与企业利润之间的关系以及企业财务状况对选择贸易方式影响的实证研究表明，企业对贸易方式的选择倾向程度从高到低排序为：一般贸易、进料加工贸易、来料加工装配。企业的流动性比率和杠杆率显著影响企业贸易方式的选择。相较干来料加工装配的贸易方式，受财务约束较少的企业倾向选择一般贸易或进料加工贸易方式。     

制度性国际贸易壁垒论

<国际贸易>教科书将贸易措施划分为关税壁垒措施和非关税壁垒措施,忽视了制度性国际贸易壁垒措施;传统的国际贸易壁垒理论仅认为关税壁垒是"合法"的,忽视了国际贸易制度的"合法"性.事实上国际贸易壁垒,正在向制度化方向发展,制度性贸易壁垒已经成为国际贸易措施的主流.     

基于月度数据的FDI与安徽外贸发展关系实证研究

本文运用计量模型从外贸竞争力、贸易流量和贸易方式等三个方面考察了2003年1月到2009年6月间安徽省吸引外商直接投资与安徽外贸发展变化间的相互关系。结果表明,在样本区间内,FD I对安徽外贸竞争力变化的解释能力有限,而对机电产品出口贸易和加工贸易影响最大。短期外资变动反映在加工贸易出口和高新技术产品出口的变化上最为迅速,FD I与加工贸易出口互为格兰杰因果关系。     

A re-analysis of the trade and welfare effects of export subsidies

This article proposes a new analysis of the market and welfare effects of export subsidies. Current analysis uses a default assumption of imports being prohibited by the exporting country. We contend that this assumption fails on several fronts: it is not consistent with the ceteris paribus assumption used in economic analysis; it is unrealistic in a world of fast-dropping transportation costs and free trade; and it hides the true effect of an export subsidy which is to create inefficient intra-industry trade. Correcting the analysis is important as, even with a proliferation of treaties, governments continue to enact policies to promote trade that may have similar effects to an export subsidy. Proceeding at a basic level, this article presents graphical analysis of export subsidies to replace the content in current undergraduate textbooks, in order to train the next generation of economists to think clearly about the effects of this policy.     

IS TRADE IN TECHNOLOGY SUPERIOR TO TRADE IN GOODS?

Using a Ricardian setting we argue that trade in technology generates higher global welfare relative to trade in goods. Hence, free trade in commodities can only be the second best outcome for the world welfare.     

The impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate

In this article, we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate. We use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trade agreements and the average tariff rate in the neighbours’ countries as instrumental variables to diminish the endogeneity problem of the tariff rate. We find that trade openness increases the participation rate which is economically and statistically significant. The results show that this correlation is robust under controlling for different variables and using various specifications. We find that 10 percentage point increase in tariff rate lowers the participation rate by 4–6 percentage point and this relationship is more severe in the long run. Finally, we show that changes in labour force population accounts for about 27% of changes in the unemployment rate following a trade liberalization.     

Does the role of observer countries in the regional trade agreement matter for intra-regional trade ?

This article investigates the effects of trade by observed economies on the intra-regional trade by South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) members using Poison pseudo maximum likelihood estimator (PPML) gravity models with panel data over the period 2008–2014. Eight SAARC members and eight observed countries, including the EU, are analysed in capturing the trade effect of observed economies on intra-regional trade in SAARC. This article provides an empirical measure of observers’ trade, FDI and Official development assistance (ODA) with SAARC if the exports and imports of observers to/from SAARC have positive or negative signs for intra-regional exports and imports. The results show that the exports and imports of observers to SAARC members have positive effects on bilateral exports among the members. The FDI of observers reduces the bilateral intra-imports in SAARC and ODA also has a negative effect on bilateral exports among the members. These results imply that the imports by SAARC members from observer countries increase intra-regional trade in the region. The FDI and ODA increase and decrease intra-regional trade in SAARC, respectively, implying that the policies for both FDI inflow from observers and efficient aid management are needed to increase regional welfare. The study also recommends that trade between SAARC members and its observers help to increase intra-regional trade in SAARC.     

贸易引力模型:来自中国的实证与启示

作者在采用并修正贸易引力模型的基础上,验证了决定中国双边贸易的主要因素是贸易伙伴的经济规模(GDP总量)、人口、空间距离和贸易政策等,并通过Beta系数检验证明区域经济合作组织是影响中国对外贸易最重要的因素;通过贸易潜力分析,说明中国目前应当充分重视国内市场,坚持扩大内需的战略,同时积极调整贸易结构,改善贸易增长方式。     

Should Governments Subsidise Inward Foreign Direct Investment?

What happens when a government has incentives to subsidise inward FDI when labour markets are imperfectly competitive? Contrary to the traditional assumption in the literature, we allow the production in the multinational firm to either complement or substitute for local production. A new result is that the wage in the host country may decrease when production is moved to this country. The reason is that the union in the host country internalises product market externalities between the firms. Furthermore, it is shown that when a single country subsidises inward FDI, total world welfare might increase.     

西方关税同盟贸易效应的理论与实证研究

关税同盟理论是西方区域经济一体化理论的核心。区别于现有关税同盟的综述文章,作者将目前西方探讨关税同盟贸易效应的观点按照逻辑关系分成三个方面进行阐述:其一是关税同盟的利益来源;其二是关税同盟的产生原因;其三是最优对外关税的决定。本文也归纳了西方对关税同盟贸易效应进行经验分析的常用方法,并对已有的理论和实证观点进行评价。     

中美贸易顺差与我国加工贸易产业转型升级

笔者运用协整分析的方法,对中美贸易顺差及其影响因素之间的长期关系进行了分析.实证结果表明,中美贸易顺差主要来自于美国及东亚诸国对华产业转移所导致的产业内贸易,其实质是我国国内加工贸易产业结构不合理.由此引发了对加工贸易产业结构优化的思考.     

中美贸易顺差的结构性成因分析

中国和美国之间的贸易顺差问题似乎已经成为中美关系的一个较大阻碍,理性地分析中关之间贸易顺差的成因已渐显迫切。本文从中美贸易顺差的规模和结构入手,详细分析了造成这一现象的结构性成因,得出中美贸易顺差是以比较优势为基础的正常的国际贸易不平衡的结论,从而两国应该以正确且双赢的态度来看待和处理这一问题。文章认为,要素禀赋理论肯定了各国发挥比较优势所能给自己所带来的福利的改善。中美的贸易顺差,从长远来看,它不仅有利于中国充分发挥其劳动丰裕国的优势,增进就业并推动中国经济的腾飞,同时有利于美国将其国内有限的资源应用到效率更高的其他行业当中去,促进产业结构升级和经济增长。这也意味着,两国应该正视并充分肯定这一现象,毕竟贸易不平衡是经济发展的结果而非原因,同时也需要两国拿出合作共赢的姿态尽早尽快地放松政策管制,以免给正常的双赢贸易带来扭曲。     

Understanding the recent Sino-U.S. trade conflict

ABSTRACT

To understand Sino-U.S. trade relations, this article interprets the trade imbalance between China and the United States from the Trump administration’s perspective. The Trump administration claims that the Chinese government’s subsidies and high import tariffs cause the Sino-U.S. trade deficit, resulting in job losses in the U.S. The Trump administration therefore argues that imposing high tariffs on Chinese exports can resolve the deficit. The article finds that U.S. statistical accounting overestimates the deficit. Reducing China’s imports cannot increase U.S. employment, and China provides the United States with low-price and high-quality products. Chinese investors tend to invest the surplus by purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds. In addition, the United States limits Chinese investments due to ‘national security’ concerns. China’s upgrading to the high end of the global value chain is a consequence of economic development. Therefore, the two countries should rebalance Sino-U.S. trade by seeking economic and trade cooperation via trade negotiations.     

我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制分析

随着加入WTO,我国已进入贸易摩擦的高峰期,与主要国家和地区的贸易摩擦频频发生,因此,采取切实措施,抓紧规划并尽快建立我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制,具有重要的现实意义.总结了我国出口贸易摩擦现状,分析了出口贸易摩擦预警系统的监测、评估和预报三个子系统,并提出了建立我国出口贸易摩擦预警机制的重点.     

International Integration,Trade, and the Great Recession

In the wake of the Great Recession, almost all countries suffered a severe and synchronized trade collapse unlike any seen since the Great Depression. To the extent that economic integration fosters trade among countries, this paper examines the role that international integration played in moderating the negative shock caused by the Great Recession on trade. The methodology adopted is a modified gravity model in which we control for the Great Recession, different forms of integration, as well as the interaction between integration and the recession. Measuring integration in three different ways, the findings show that countries that were more integrated fared better in trade – the extent of trade collapse was milder – than less integrated countries. Specifically, Regional Trade Agreement, as a form of trade integration, had a positive and robust effect on trade during the Great Recession. This positive effect is also robust across regions and countries around the world. In a nutshell, countries that are into some form of trade agreements are better-positioned to absorb negative demand-side shocks caused by economic recessions than similar countries without such agreements.     

内地与香港双边贸易流量与潜力研究——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

内地各省市（自治区）的GDP和人均GDP、香港人均GDP、绝对距离以及泛珠三角区域合作组织等解释变量,是影响双边贸易流量的主要因素;各因素的影响程度互有不同,内地各省市（自治区）对香港的出口贸易潜力也存在一定差异。因此,内地与香港应采取针对性的措施,进一步加强经贸交流和合作,充分发挥各自的区位优势和竞争优势,实现两地经济的共同繁荣。