Energy price disparity and public welfare

The differences in the price of energy to economic sectors are linked to a number of system parameters and to public welfare. There are large disparities in energy prices within states when comparing residential and industrial prices although neoclassical economics predicts one price in markets. The large disparities between the two sectors across states negatively affects the efficiency of resource allocation, creates subsidies for those getting the cheap energy and results in unequal access to energy. These in turn lead to inefficient partitioning of energy between products and waste, higher pollution, leakage of wealth and poorer energy use efficiency, i.e. high energy intensity. States with large energy price disparities between sectors have statistically higher poverty, lower incomes, more pollution and use more energy but with less efficiency. Higher energy price disparities also result in higher throughput per unit of output thus reducing the chances for sustainability and lower public welfare.     

Rank tests for price convergence in Australian beverage markets

This article examines the price convergence of beverage products within Australia in order to assess the efficacy of intranational cross-border movements of products under the Australia’s Mutual Recognition Agreement. Since the cointegrating relationship between product prices may not be exact or linear, we adopt the rank tests for analysis which do not require prior knowledge and specification of the linear or nonlinear functional form. Our results validate the price convergence of all beverage products within Australia, with the exception of a few regions in the milk market. Furthermore, a subset of the cointegration relationships exhibits nonlinear long-run price co-movements.     

Energy import costs in a flexible input-output price model

A fundamental assumption of the input-output (IO) model is a fixed relationship between interindustry flows. In the price version of the model, the assumption of fixed-coefficients prevents the optimal mix of inputs being adjusted when relative prices change. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the role of energy import prices in the IO price model without the usual non-substitution technology inherent to the input-output structure. The analysis includes alternative substitution possibilities for the elements that comprise the sectoral costs, which are empirically implemented from an IO dataset. The various substitution scenarios are defined by three different cost structures: the Leontief, Cobb-Douglas and Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) functions. The empirical application to the Catalan economy illustrates the relevance of the flexibility option used for explaining the quantitative influence of energy import prices on domestic prices. Adapting the traditional input-output model to include factor substitution makes it possible to overcome the rigidity in transmitting price impacts, and illustrates a range of possible effects.     

Energy price transmissions during extreme movements

This paper investigates price transmissions across European energy forward markets at distinct maturities during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods. To this end, we rely on the traditional Granger causality test (in mean) and its multivariate extension in tail distribution developed by Candelon, Joëts, and Tokpavi (2013). Considering forward energy prices at 1, 10, 20, and 30 months, it turns out that no significant causality exists between markets at regular times whereas comovements are at play during extreme periods especially in bear markets. More precisely, energy prices comovements appear to be stronger at short horizons than at long horizons, testifying an eventual Samuelson mechanism in the maturity prices curve. Diversification strategies tend to be more efficient as maturity increases.     

Ascending price Vickrey auctions

We show that an ascending price auction for multiple units of a homogeneous object proposed by Ausubel (i) raises prices for packages until they reach those nonlinear and non-anonymous market clearing prices at which bidders get their marginal products and (ii) the auction is a primal–dual algorithm applied to an appropriate linear programming formulation in which the dual solution yields those same market clearing prices. We emphasize the similarities with efficient incentive compatible ascending price auctions to implement Vickrey payments when there is a single object or when objects are heterogeneous but each buyer does not desire more than one unit. A potential benefit of these common threads is that it helps to establish the principles upon which Vickrey payments may be implemented through decentralized, incentive compatible procedures.     

Understanding the role of economic transition in enlarging energy price elasticity

Evidence of energy price elasticity would allow for a better understanding of economic, distributional and environmental consequences of varying energy prices. We document the previously unnoticed causal relationship between energy price elasticity and economic transition by modelling energy price elasticity as endogenous to the economic system. The central message is that economic transition promotes incentives and flexibility of micro‐units to sufficiently use price signals. Three potential mechanisms are proposed and tested for economic transition affecting the energy price elasticity. The findings provide implications for energy price policies because it reveals how energy consumers respond to energy price changes alongside economic transition.     

The structural effect of cooperatives on price volatility in the European dairy sector

Theoretical models and empirical evidence suggest that high market shares of cooperatives can force investor-oriented firms to pay higher producer prices within a region. In the same vein, cooperatives may force investor-oriented firms to reduce price volatility. We use panel data from 27 European Union member states over the period 2001–2015 to investigate how the market share of cooperatives in a country affects milk price volatility. Our key finding is that a higher market share of cooperatives reduces price volatility at the national level. Volatility is influenced by a number of other variables, such as fluctuation in raw milk production, oil price volatility spillover and the number of dairy processors. Policymakers should consider that the promotion of cooperatives might positively affect price stability in the dairy sector.     

Relative importance of sectoral and aggregate sources of price changes

This paper estimates a dynamic common factor model to assess relative importance of the aggregate and the sector-specific factors that determine changes in the prices of individual products. It also examines how aggregate price changes are affected by these factors. Two different specifications of the model are estimated: the baseline model with one aggregate factor, and a second specification with two aggregate factors. In the one-actor model, the aggregate factor contributes little to the movements of changes in prices, mostly of nondurable goods whereas it seems to have important contributions to the movements of changes in prices of commodity groups mainly used as intermediate or capital goods. In the specification with two aggregate factors, the additional factor has significant effects on changes in prices of ‘farm products’ and ‘processed foods and feeds’ only. Forecast-error variance decompositions of both aggregate and disaggregate price changes suggest that sectoral factors account for most of the variability at short horizons while the contributions of the aggregate factors increase as the time horizon lengthens. The results also show that sectoral factors are not only important for relative price changes but also have significant impact on aggregate inflation. The estimated common factors have statistically significant correlations with money growth and changes in the unemployment rate.     

Estimation of hedonic price functions with incomplete information

Existence of persistent price dispersion suggests that some buyers find lower prices through search and information acquisition, while some sellers charge higher prices by gathering information on potential buyers. If buyers are not fully informed of the lowest price available in the market they end up paying a price higher than if they had full information. Similarly, if sellers are not fully informed about the highest price they could charge, they too suffer by receiving a price lower than had they had full information. This paper develops a hedonic price model that incorporates the effects of incomplete information on both sides of the market and obtains estimates of the discrepancies between market prices and buyers’ maximum willingness to pay and sellers’ minimum willingness to accept. Correlates of such price discrepancies are also explored. We apply the technique to a data set constructed from the American Housing Survey, and find that incomplete information has had a significant impact on housing prices.     

Copula-based nonlinear modeling of the law of one price for lumber products

This paper proposes an alternative and potentially novel approach to analyzing the law of one price in a nonlinear fashion. Copula-based models that consider the joint distribution of prices separated by space are developed and applied to weekly prices for lumber products. The copulas capture nonlinearities that arise in the extremes of the joint distributions of price differentials and suggest faster equilibrating adjustments when deviations from parity are extreme.     

Price transmission in the international skim milk powder markets

This article investigates the strength and the pattern of spatial price linkages in skimmed milk powder markets using monthly wholesale price data from three major producers and exporters (the U.S.A., the E.U., and Oceania) and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. The results suggest that prices in the three regions considered are linked with stable long-run relationships. The law of one price, however, does not hold. The dominant pattern of transmission in the long run is asymmetric involving positive price stocks to be transmitted with higher intensity compared to negative prices shocks; asymmetries in price transmission exist in the short run as well.     

Faster,smaller, cheaper: an hedonic price analysis of PDAs

We compute quality-adjusted price indexes for personal digital assistants (PDAs) for the period 1999 to 2004. Hedonic regressions indicate that prices are related to processor generation and clock speed, memory capacity, screen size and quality and the presence of a digital camera or wireless capability. A particularly salient feature of PDAs is portability, where we find: (i) purchasers value the energy density of the battery technology (e.g. lithium ion) rather than the battery life in hours; and (ii) the physical characteristics of the PDA (e.g. weight, volume) are nonlinearly related to price, suggesting that valuation of the physical form of PDAs does not bear a simple linear relationship to characteristics, either in absolute terms (‘smaller is better’) or vs. an ergonomic ‘sweet spot’. Rather, portability characteristics are correlated with other desirable attributes, making the relationship between price and portability difficult to disentangle. However, hedonic price indexes are robust across different measures of the portability of PDAs. Hedonic indexes using the dummy variable, characteristics prices, and imputation approaches decline on average between 19 and 26% per year. A matched model price index computed from a subset of observations declines at 19% per year, while a fixed-effects hedonic index declines at 14% per year.     

Petrol prices,oil price rises and oil price falls: some evidence for the UK since 1972

This paper examines the relationship between retail petrol prices, excise duties and crude oil prices in the UK over the period 1973–1988. The existence of a stable relationship between the petrol price, level of excise duty and spot oil price is confirmed through use of the cointegration approach. Although the speed of reaction of petrol prices to changes in the crude price depends on whether crude prices are rising or falling, any asymmetry in the pricing response is virtually absent after an adjustment period of only four months.     

Estimating fundamental and affordable housing price trends: a study based on Singapore

Policy-makers often impose some cooling measures on the housing market when housing prices rise fast. Such policies yield limited success if housing prices are driven up by fundamentals. Estimating a fundamental price trend from observed price data is a challenge. We present an empirical methodology to separate housing price trends into fundamental and affordable components. Deviating from the common practice, we replace current income by a long-run income measure constructed from household incomes at different quantiles. This income measure provides a more suitable basis for constructing affordable house price levels. It also serves as a better fundamental variable, especially for segmented housing markets like that of Singapore. These price trends provide policy-makers with useful information to intervene into property markets to achieve desirable outcomes. Analysing Singapore data using this methodology shows the magnitudes of the price gaps between actual and fundamental prices and how housing affordability fluctuates over price cycles.     

理顺价格机制彻底解决电荒

近年来,随着我国经济高速发展,能源需求日益增加,“电荒”现象愈演愈烈。主要原因是由于价格机制不顺,包括电网与电源企业利益分配失衡,火电与新能源价格、电煤与煤电价格、高油价与电价、电价与CPI等机制的不协调。只有理顺价格机制,才能彻底解决电荒危机。     

The effects of purchasing and price subsidy policies for agricultural products under target zones

A good harvest usually leads to a collapse of agricultural prices since the price elasticity of agricultural products is relatively low. To stabilize the market and protect farmers, many countries have introduced a target zone policy, together with product purchasing or price subsidy strategies. This article analyzes the effect of a target zone with different strategies operating in a coordinated manner. The results show that a target zone policy with agricultural product purchases does not necessarily stabilize agricultural product wholesale prices, but is able to stabilize manufacturing product prices, if the price effect is smaller than the sum of the wealth and asset effects for agricultural products and the price effect is larger than the interest rate effect for manufacturing products. On the contrary, a target zone policy with an agricultural product price subsidy will generate the “honeymoon effect” for agricultural product wholesale prices, but will result in unstableperformance of manufacturing product prices.     

The product life cycle and sample representativity bias in price indexes

Official price indexes are usually calculated using matched samples of products. If products exhibit systematic price trends at different points in their life cycle then matched sample methods may introduce bias if the life cycle movement in the sample does not adequately reflect that in the population. This article explores the extent of these life cycle pricing effects and then examines the bias it can introduce in measured inflation. A large US supermarket scanner data set for six cities and six products over 12 years is used. Using hedonic methods we find that the life cycle component of price change is important across a range of products and cities. To explore the bias introduced by these movements, we use simulations that construct indexes with different sample update frequency. For indexes that are never completely resampled, we find an annual absolute bias of 0.88 and 0.59 percentage points depending upon whether we use the actual prices or prices imputed from our hedonic model. This compares with absolute biases of 0.34 and 0.10 percentage points for the corresponding cases for samples, which are re-selected annually. Thus our results provide strong support for more frequently updating index samples.     

Socialist and world market prices: An ingrowth?

This paper presents tests of the relationship between East-West trade prices and intra-Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) prices for transferable ruble transactions for two sets of Hungarian data. A special test on the significance of the introduction of the Moscow modification of 1975 is executed where feasible. This is relevant for more than half of the commodities studied. Well-behaved relationships between world and CMEA prices are obtained for the majority of commodities, but frequently the elasticities diverge significantly from unity. This suggests that changes in average East-West trade prices are transmitted into the CMEA price formula only partly. For those products for which the relationship is statistically weak, other determinants of CMEA prices should be explored.     

Producer price adjustment to commodity price shocks: An application of threshold cointegration

During the 1980s and 1990s, most developing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America implemented structural adjustment reforms, which included the liberalization of export crop markets and the abolition of marketing boards. The emergence of new marketing systems may have altered price transmission mechanisms, especially if collusion behaviors have appeared among domestic stakeholders along the marketing chain. I use threshold cointegration tools to analyze the dynamics of world price transmission to coffee growers in three deregulated markets. The methods I use allow me to test the presence of a threshold in both the cointegrating relationship and its corresponding error correction model. Over the pre-reform period, I detect asymmetric price adjustments that appear favorable to producers - deviations from the long-run equilibrium resulting from largest increases in world prices being eliminated relatively quickly - and disappear in the post-reform period. On the contrary over the post-reform period, the results suggest that largest decreases in world prices may be transmitted relatively quickly to growers. These results can be seen as expressions of a favorable pricing policy over the pre-reform period and an unfavorable influence of new private agents over the post-reform period, meaning that in some cases reforms may have failed to create competitive market structures.     

Cointegration and price discovery in US corn cash and futures markets

Using prices from 182 cash markets from seven states and the Chicago Board of Trade futures, we investigate cointegration and price discovery for corn. Analysis based on cash–futures pairs reveals that cointegration holds for 52 cash markets and failures tend to happen farther away from futures delivery locations. Cash generally are as important as futures prices as information sources in the long run and cash to futures information flow is most likely in the short run. Contributions to price discovery also are measured quantitatively for cointegrated cases. Analysis based on state-level cash prices indicates bidirectional information flow between cash and futures prices under a bivariate model, and futures to cash information flow under the octavariate model with all cash and the futures series. Comparisons of the two models show that including local cash markets in a price relationship model highlights cointegration and the futures’ price discovery role and could benefit cash price forecasting. Finally, evidence of nonlinear causality is found.