入世对我国证券市场发展的影响与对策

中国加入世贸组织是顺应经济全球化的趋势，迅速融入世界经济潮流的必然选择。入世后，我国的证券市场将会面临更大的挑战。为此，我们必须从我国的证券市场的实际出发，采取相应的措施，以适应证券对外开放的需要。     

Stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners: does trade intensity matter?

We investigate the extent and manner of stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners and examine whether this is affected by trade intensity. Based on trade intensity, we classify Australia’s trading partners into major, medium and minor partners. We hypothesize that markets with greater (lower) trade intensity will be more (less) interdependent with Australia. We perform correlation (unconditional and conditional) analyses between Australia and its trading partners. Our results indicate that most of the markets that are highly correlated with Australia are its major trading partners. We conduct panel regression analysis to investigate whether trade intensity has any impact on the stock market correlations between Australia and its trading partners. The results show that trade intensity significantly and positively affect the correlations of Australia with its major trading partners. Thus, the results confirm our hypothesis that trade intensity drives stock market interdependence between Australia and its trading partners.     

Bilateral trade with apositional traders

We study the standard model of bilateral trade under incomplete information dropping the assumption that traders know on which side of the market they are. We consider two mechanisms that differ only in the number of offers that an agent can submit. These mechanisms are realistic and they are ex post individually rational (i.e. regret free), while the usual mechanisms proposed in the literature satisfy the weaker requirement of interim individual rationality. Properties of the Bayesian equilibria are described for the general case. For the case where valuations are uniformly distributed in the unit square, two types of equilibria are derived for each mechanism and their efficiency properties are analyzed. As expected, the equilibria under the double offer mechanism are less inefficient than those under the single offer mechanism.     

Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone

In this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick–Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.     

关于我国证券市场的发展与监管问题

我国证券市场经过十余年的发展,取得了长足的进步。证券市场在经济发展中发挥着不可替代的作用,在国民经济中占据着重要地位。但是,我国证券市场也存在着历史遗留问题,改革方案设计不够科学及价值判断偏差等三类问题,主要表现在市场基础不够稳固,市场存在较大缺陷,证券监督有待加强,证券公司发展滞后。必须通过全面提高上市公司素质,完善市场运行机制,加强市场监管,推动券商的发展等措施来完善市场功能。     

金融危机后中国股市波动性结构变化测度及其原因分析

以2005年4月至2010年4月我国沪深300指数为研究对象,使用调整后的EGARCH模型,对金融危机前后中国股市的波动性进行研究。结果显示:金融危机发生后中国股市的波动性明显减弱———这与美国股市明显不同,且波动性结构发生了显著性变化,表现为美国股市对中国股市的影响减弱、中国股市波动的持久性增强等。最后,对产生这些变化的原因进行了理论分析,指出金融危机发生后贸易保护主义抬头、刺激性的宏观经济政策出台是中国股市波动性结构变化的可能原因。     

我国引入股指期货交易的意义及可行性分析

到目前为止,我国股市仅有现货交易,却没有有效的风险回避机制,这必将影响到我国股市健康发展。因此,当前开发我国股指期货交易可以回避股市系统风险,增加市场流动性,促进股价合理波动,从而增强证券市场的竞争力。同时,在我国已经形成了较为完善的交易和监管体系,并拥有了相当规模的投资群体,开办股指期货的市场条件已具备。     

中国与海合会双边贸易的实证研究——兼论建立双边自贸区的对策

海合会是中国重要的贸易伙伴,也是中国最主要的石油进口来源地,是中国重要的货物出口市场.本文旨在研究中国与海合会的双边贸易关系,为中国海合会自贸区谈判提供理论依据.运用贸易结合度指数、可显示比较优势指数和出口相似度指数等指标进行了实证分析,发现中国与海合会双边贸易的比较密切;海合会国家在绝大多数产品生产上没有比较优势,中国具有比较优势的产品很多,双方的出口商品结构互补性很强,双方贸易竞争性很弱.自由贸易区建立以后,不会因为双边贸易的扩张导致任何一方产业受损.中国政府应加快双边自贸区谈判,并考虑签署投资自由化协议,促进双边能源产业相互投资;中国企业应积极拓展海合会商品市场,发展对海合会服务出口.     

关于我国股市知情交易水平及其性质的实证研究

基于Easley、Hvidkjaer和O'Hara的序贯交易模型与PIN (Probability of Information-based Trading,基于信息的交易比率)指标对我国股市知情交易情况进行的实证分析研究结果表明:(1)我国股市信息不对称程度较高;(2)由于知情交易者利用坏消息的能力有限且流动性交易水平较高,我国股市知情交易比率并不太高;(3)知情交易比率与后续期间股票收益率的负相关性,表明我国股市中市场操控型知情交易比较严重.因此,我们认为应进一步完善上市公司的信息披露制度,降低投资者之间的信息不对称程度,同时确保流动性投资者参与股市的积极性;在引入做空机制时应慎重考虑和综合权衡,避免不适当地增加流动性投资者所承担的逆向选择风险水平,降低股市的流动性供给和风险分散功能;证券市场监管部门应进一步加强对异常交易活动的监控,加大对市场操纵行为的打击力度,以确保我国证券市场的健康发展.     

我国股票市场指数与国际股票市场主要指数的联动性研究——基于协整分析

本文对2002—2009年中国股票市场与国际主要股票市场的每日收盘数据进行统计分析,运用相关性检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验实证了上证综合指数、深圳成分指数分别与香港恒生指数、道.琼斯指数、日经225指数、法国CAC40指数和伦敦金融时报指数之间存在相关、协整关系。进一步研究我国股票市场与国际股票市场的联动性,结果表明,国际股票市场对我国股票市场的影响越来越明显。这表明中国股票市场日趋成熟,逐渐与相对完善的国际股票市场接轨。     

中国房地产与股票市场的财富效应检验——基于2000—2010年季度经济数据的实证检验

在Dvornak和Kohle（r2007）的研究基础上,根据中国2000—2010年季度经济数据,对房地产和股票市场的财富效应进行了实证检验。研究结果表明,房地产市场的财富效应为负,房地产价格每上涨10%,将导致消费降低5.41%;而股票市场的财富效应为正,但并不显著,股票价格每上涨10%,仅拉动消费增长0.65%。     

我国股票发行制度变迁及若干思考

股票发行是资本市场的核心环节之一。本文从制度变迁的角度考察了我国股票市场发展的特定背景,总结分析了股票发行制度从额度制到核准制的演变、相关制度的特点、利弊及其市场化改革的成效。研究发现,我国转轨经济环境、市场文化和市场流动性问题是进一步改革股票发行制度需要重点考虑的因素。     

Which Chinese Markets to Diversify into?

This paper investigates the correlation and feedback relationships between the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI), the Hang Seng Chinese Enterprise Index (CEI) and the S&P 500 Index (SP). We divide the indexes into two separate periods, from the inception of the CEI in 1994 to the stock market crash in 2000, and from 2001 to 2011. Our results show that the feedback relationship between the CEI and the SP is stronger after 2000. As the feedback relationship grows stronger, the diversification benefit reduces for US investors who utilizes the CEI as a tool for diversifying into Chinese markets.     

中国股市溢出效应

研究了中国A股市场、B股市场和H股市场的市场分隔和信息溢出效应。递归协整分析结果表明:3个股票市场中的任何一个都不与其他市场存在长期关系,且市场分隔并没有因政策变化而消失。溢出指数分析结果表明:在平均水平下,H股市场向A股市场和B股市场有净溢出,B股市场向A股市场有净溢出,这支持了境外投资者拥有更多信息的假说;动态分析结果表明,在经济平稳时期,A股市场拥有更多信息,金融危机期间出现B股市场和H股市场向A股市场的金融传染现象。     

投资者情绪、股票市场流动性和经济增长

采用2000—2009年的GDP、股票市场流通市值以及交易值的季度数据,从实证角度对此时段的投资者情绪、股票市场流动性和资本化率进行计量分析,通过ADF单位根检验、Johansen协整检验及Granger因果检验研究投资者情绪、股票市场流动性和股票市场发展之间的关系,进而揭示了投资者情绪影响经济增长的途径。结果显示,投资者情绪和股票市场流动性是经济增长的格兰杰原因。