Empirical Regularities in Cross-Country Alcohol Consumption*

This paper analyses the demand for the three beverages: beer, wine and spirits, within alcohol, at a cross-country level for 10 countries: Australia, Canada, Finland, France, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US. A number of empirical regularities were found at the cross-country level. This includes: (i) the demand theory hypotheses, homogeneity and symmetry are generally acceptable; (ii) the additive utility hypothesis is also acceptable even for such narrowly defined commodities; (iii) in nine out of the 10 countries, beer is considered as a necessity, in half of the countries wine is a necessity and in all the countries spirits are a luxury; and (iv)in all the countries, the demand for beer, wine and spirits are price inelastic.     

Economic determinants of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Canada: a panel data analysis

In this article, the economic determinants of the demand for three alcoholic beverages (wine, spirits, and beer) are investigated with a focus on the price, income and unemployment effects. The investigation is conducted within the fixed effects panel regression framework using a balanced panel for ten Canadian provinces spanning the years 1981–2004. The estimated own price elasticities indicate that increased government taxation is an effective tool for curtailing the consumption of spirits (at the expense of lower government tax revenue), but it is less effective for curtailing the consumption of wine or beer. The cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that taxing beer or spirits may not be an effective tool for encouraging consumption switch from these alcoholic beverages to wine in light of wine’s greater health benefits. Income emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of both wine and spirits but not of beer, whereas unemployment emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of beer but not of wine or spirits. With respect to unemployment, we find no support for the addiction hypothesis in the case of wine and spirits and strong support for the severe budget constraint hypothesis in the case of beer.     

Cross-country alcohol consumption comparison: an application of the Rotterdam demand system

This paper analyses the consumption patterns of the three beverages beer, wine and spirits in nine countries, Australia, Canada, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the US, using the Rotterdam demand system. A cross-country comparison of the results shows that in most countries (i)wine consumption has grown at a fasteer rate than beer and spirits; (ii) the proportion of consumers' expenditure on alcohol is declining; (iii)beer is a necessity and spirits is a luxury; (iv)the demand for the three beverages is price inelastic; and (iv)all three beverages are pair-wise substitutes. We also investigated the hypothesis of identical parameters for all countries by pooling the data across countries and found that the data do not support the hypothesis.     

Advertising and US alcoholic beverage demand: system-wide estimates

The effects of advertising on consumption of alcoholic beverages in the US are analysed. The goal is to obtain evidence on the importance of advertising at the level of beverage demand(beer, wine, spirits) and for total consumption of alcohol (per capita gallons of ethanol). A three-equation conditional demand system is estimated that includes own- and cros-beverage advertising as explanatory variables. Four models of the differential demand system are estimated, including the Rotterdam, AID, CBS, and NBR models, using annual US data for the period 1964-90 on beverage consumption, prices, expednitures, and real advertising. Estimates are obtained of the complete matrix of own- and cross-elascities for each beverage’ price and advertising. At the beverage level, the results indicate a positive butr very small effect of advertising on beverage consumption, with most of the impact due to wine advertising and non due to beer advertising. There is no efect of advertising in the composite demand function for alcohol. Hence, the results from system-wide modelling suggest that alcohol advertising serves to reallocate brand sales, with no effect on total ethanol consumption and very small effects on beverage consumption.     

REPEAL OF PROHIBITION: A BENEFIT‐COST ANALYSIS

In spite of an estimated increase in annual alcohol‐related motor vehicle costs of $2.767 billion (1947 dollars), the net social benefit of repeal of alcohol Prohibition amounts to $432 million per annum in 1934–1937, about 0.33% of gross domestic product. Total benefits of $3.25 billion consist primarily of increased consumer and producer surplus, tax revenues, and reduced criminal violence costs. A Monte Carlo simulation shows the probability of negative net benefits is 16%. The estimated price elasticity of demand for spirits, beer, and wine are –.60, ?.56, and –.51 respectively, which is consistent with the modern literature. (JEL D61, I18, K420, I120)     

Wine Tax Reform: The Impact of Introducing a Volumetric Excise Tax for Wine

The recent Henry tax review recommended substantial changes to Australian alcohol taxation policy. Here, the implications for the Australian wine industry of the Henry tax review's recommendations are explored using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that: (i) replacement of the Wine Equalisation Tax (WET) with a revenue‐neutral volumetric excise tax would have a small negative impact on the wine industry; (ii) removal of the WET rebate would have a substantial negative impact on small wineries; and (iii) applying the packaged beer excise rate across all alcoholic beverages would have a notable negative impact on the wine industry.     

Another look at the identical tastes hypothesis on the analysis of cross-country alcohol data

A number of studies have appeared in the area of cross-country consumption comparisons, where a common system of demand equations is used to model the consumption patterns of all countries. Under this approach, tastes are taken to be the same internationally. Such an assumption of identical tastes was forcibly advocated by the dual Nobel laureates, Stigler and Becker, who argued that tastes neither change capriciously nor differ importantly between people. In this paper, we use the system-wide approach to demand analysis to analyse the alcohol consumption patterns of drinkers from 10 high-income industrialised countries and verify Stigler and Becker’s (Rev Econ Statist 59:113–118, 1977) hypothesis by testing whether pooling the data across countries is acceptable. We also present the implied demand elasticities for beer, wine and spirits for the 10 countries and discuss the use of these elasticities in policy-related applications.     

Alcohol consumption,censorship and misjudgement

In the study of the economic determinants of alcohol consumption, there is an under-appreciated issue of sample selectivity as consumption is often not fully observed. Sample selectivity involves ignoring consumption below a censorship cut-off level. This article estimates a demand system for beer, wine and spirits with and without allowance for selectivity. Then using a simulation approach, it examines the impact of misjudgement in the censorship level on the estimated demand parameters. A mean squared error (MSE) criterion is suggested for determining the appropriate censorship level.     

Re-examining the economic determinants of alcohol consumption in Canada: controlling for the presence of common correlated effects

Alcoholic beverages represent both an important source of revenue and a driver of expenditure for provincial governments in Canada. As a result, the pricing of alcoholic beverages has substantial public policy implications. In this context, we re-examine existing work estimating the demand for three classes of alcoholic beverage (beer, wine, and spirits) by controlling for common correlated effects. The results reveal that any conclusions regarding the government’s ability to influence alcohol consumption is sensitive to the assumption that the relationship between the demand for alcoholic beverages and economic variables is identical across provinces.     

Economic and demographic factors in U.S. alcohol demand: A growth-accounting analysis

During the 1980s, per capita consumption of absolute ethanol in the U.S. declined by 14 percent. In 1979, consumption was 2.94 gallons per capita compared to 2.52 gallons in 1989. The objective of this paper is to explain the decline in consumption, both for total ethanol and by beverage. The historical growth of ethanol demand is decomposed into several components, with emphasis on the role of relative prices, real income, and demographic factors. Using the Rotterdam model of a demand system, I first estimate the conditional demand for ethanol for each of the three beverages (beer, wine, distilled spirits). Second, I estimate the composite demand for total ethanol. Both sets of estimates are obtained using quarterly data for the period 1974–90. The estimates are tested for conformity with the theoretical restrictions of homogeneity, symmetry, and negativity. The decomposition analysis indicates a positive net effect for the combined impact of autonomous trend, real income growth, and relative price changes, both for total ethanol and each of the three beverages. The negative growth of per capita ethanol consumption is attributable to an increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over and a simultaneous decline in the proportion of the population aged 18–29.     

Globalization and Taste Convergence: the Cases of Wine and Beer

This paper investigates changes in cultural consumption patterns for a low‐concentration industry: wine and beer. Using data on 38 countries from 1963–2000, there is clear convergence in the consumption of wine relative to beer between 1963 and 2000. Convergence occurs even more quickly within groups of countries that have a higher degree of integration. A key prediction of international trade is confirmed in the data: greater trade integration weakens the association between production and consumption patterns—although the relative consumption of wine can be explained well in 1963 by grape production and latitude, these variables are much less significant in 2000. Despite these “scientific” explanations, there is also a cultural angle to wine consumption. While the relative wine consumption of France and Germany is converging, several Latin American countries fail to converge. The patterns of convergence are consistent with dynamics of adjustment in overlapping generation habit formation models.     

Economic and demographic factors in Australian alcohol demand

In the last two decades, total (pure) alcohol consumption in Australia has declined by about 31% and currently it is at the same level as it was in the 1950s. Australians consumed about 10 litres of pure alcohol per person in 1982 and now the level has declined to about 7 litres of pure alcohol per person. During the last four decades, per capita beer consumption has reached a peak of 140 litres in 1975 and has fallen to a low 93 litres in 1999; wine consumption has increased four-fold while spirits consumption has stayed around the same level. This paper, using the Australian consumption data for beer, wine and spirits for the period 1956–1999, aims to explain the change in consumption patterns of beer, wine and spirits by considering the effects due to changes in economic and demographic factors. The results show that while income and prices significantly influence the consumption patterns of alcohol, the increasing Australian elderly population also plays an important role.     

What drives our Beer Consumption?---In Search of Nutrition Habits and Demographic Patterns

Conventional wisdom in Germany claims pork hocks with sauerkraut and beer. But is it really that simple? In an unbalanced cross-country panel covering 169 nations and time-series records of up to 52 years, we analyse drivers behind beer consumption. Based on data gathered from Worldbank and Faostat, we run multivariate panel regressions and test for the explanatory power of three categories of food and six macroeconomic and demographic variables. Indeed, we confirm most clichés of a typical beer drinker being a middle-aged urbanite with a strong desire for pork and potatoes, however, disliking cheese and wine.     

Accounting for Growth in the Australian Wine Industry, 1987 to 2003

A computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy is used to account for the dramatic growth in Australia's wine industry between 1987 and 1999, and to project grape and wine volumes and prices to 2003. Export demand growth has made a major contribution to total output growth in premium wines, and accounts for most of the increase in the producer price of premium red wine. Domestic consumer preferences have shifted, mainly towards premium red wine, but there is also some evidence of growing demand for premium white wine since the mid 1990s. From the perspective of producers, productivity growth, while being less important than growth in domestic demand, appears to have more than offset the negative effects on suppliers of wine consumer tax increases. From the domestic consumers' perspective, however, tax hikes have raised retail prices much more than productivity gains have lowered them. The high and sustained levels of profitability resulting from export demand growth have led to a massive supply response in Australia. Even so, by 2003 Australian wine output will still be less than 5 per cent of global production.     

A censored system of cigarette and alcohol consumption

Many previous studies of US cigarette and alcohol consumption have focused on single equations. However, the addictive nature of consumption suggests that it is more appropriate to model these products as a system. We propose a two-step estimation procedure and apply the procedure to a system of equations for cigarette, beer and wine consumption. Results differ from those derived from an existing two-step procedure. Findings suggest that consumption of cigarettes, beer and wine is responsive to income changes but the elasticities are rather small. Personal physiques, education, age, race, ethnicity, health, gender, employment status, and regions also play significant roles in consumption.     

An Econometric Study of the Demand for Bottled,Canned and Bulk Beer*

This paper uses the absolute price version of the differential demand model to examine substitution possibilities for the consumption of beer in different containers in the period 1968–69 to 1983–84. The results indicate that the effect of beer packaging in beer consumption is significant. The same beer in different containers can be treated as quite different products The conditional substitution between bottled beer and canned beer is the highest among the beers. However, due to a strong ‘income effect’, the unconditional substitution between them is lower than that between bottled beer and bulk beer.     

Modelling the trend and seasonality in the consumption of alcoholic beverages in the United Kingdom

A univariate time series analysis of the consumption of beer, wine and spirits in the UK over the period 1964–1995 is presented. The analysis shows that the consumption of beer and wine exhibits stochastic seasonality while the consumption of spirits exhibits deterministic seasonality. Moreover, the three series are found to have stochastic trends. Analysis of the out-of-sample forecasting power of the various models reveals that the model with stochastic trend and seasonality is superior to other models. The results cast doubt on the validity and soundness of the practice of modelling the consumption of alcoholic beverages by assuming deterministic trend and seasonality.     

ALCOHOL REGULATION AND DOMESTIC VIOLENCE TOWARDS CHILDREN

In recent years, economists have paid much attention to the demand for alcohol and the negative externalities associated with excessive drinking. Largely ignored in the literature is the link between alcohol use and domestic violence. Given the established positive relationship between alcohol consumption and acts of violence, the purpose of this paper is to examine the role that changes in the determinants of the demand for alcohol may play in reducing the incidence of violence aimed at children. Data on violence come from the 1976 Physical Violence in American Families survey. We estimate a model in which violent outcomes are affected by the state excise tax rate on beer; illegal drug prices, and other regulatory variables such as availability measures and laws restricting the advertising of alcohol. Results show that increasing the tax on beer can be an effective policy tool in reducing violence. Laws designed to make obtaining beer more difficult also may be effective in reducing violence, while restrictions on advertising and increases in illegal drug prices have no effects.     

ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF BEER PRICES ON THE INCIDENCE OF SEXUALLY TRANSMITTED DISEASES: CROSS‐PROVINCE AND TIME SERIES EVIDENCE FROM CANADA

We attempt to contribute to the literature by evaluating the effects of higher beer prices on gonorrhea and chlamydia rates through pooling data across Canadian provinces and over time. Ordinary least squares as well as instrumental variables estimates suggest that higher real beer prices are correlated with a reduction in both gonorrhea and chlamydia rates, with corresponding implied elasticities within a tightly defined interval of (roughly) ?0.7 to ?0.9. However, the increase in real beer prices over the sample period is only responsible for less than a tenth of the decline in gonorrhea rates. (JEL I18)     

THE IMPACT OF LARGE CONTAINER BEER PURCHASES ON ALCOHOL‐RELATED FATAL VEHICLE ACCIDENTS

Using a fixed effect weighted least square model, we examine how changes in the share of beer purchases from large containers (>12 oz.) impact alcohol‐related fatal accidents. We find that, after holding beer purchases and overall alcohol‐consumption constant, an increase in total beer purchases from containers greater than the standard size of 12 oz. increases alcohol‐related fatal accidents. We confirm our results persist across several investigations of robustness, as well as the use of instrument variables methods. Outcomes suggest that policy makers should consider differential excise taxes for the purchase of larger than standard size beer containers. Such a policy would likely reduce the number of alcohol‐related fatal vehicle crashes and help to internalize the negative externalities associated with drunk driving. At the very minimum, these results suggest that individuals prone to dangerous levels of drunk driving are the consumers that most prefer large container size consumption. This is consistent with the idea that binge drinkers and beer drinkers are much more likely to drive while legally intoxicated. (JEL I18, K4)