Instrumental variable estimation of a nonlinear Taylor rule

This article studies nonlinear, threshold, models in which some of the regressors can be endogenous. An estimation strategy based on instrumental variables was originally developed for dynamic panel models and we extend it to time series models. We apply this methodology to a forward-looking Taylor rule, where nonlinearity is introduced via inflation thresholds.     

Semiparametric Estimation of Simultaneous-Equation Microeconometric Models with Index Restrictions

This article introduces semiparametric methods for the estimation of simultaneous-equation microeconometric models with index restrictions. The methods are motivated by a semiparametric minimum-distance procedure, which unifies the estimation of both regression-type and linear or nonlinear simultaneous-equation models without emphasis on the construction of instrumental variables. Single-equation and systematic estimation methods and optimal weighting procedures are considered. The estimators are √ n -consistent and asymptotically normal. For the estimation of nonparametric regression and some sample selection models where the variances of disturbances are functions of the same indices, the optimal weighted estimator attains Chamberlain's efficient bound for models with conditional moment restrictions. The weighted estimator is shown to be optimal within a class of semiparametric instrumental variables estimators.
JEL classification numbers: C14, C24, C34.     

城际政府公共投资策略互动行为及其形成机制——基于278个地级及以上城市数据的实证分析

文章基于2007年收支分类改革后新的预算科目和278个地级及以上城市的数据,运用SLM、SEM、Durbin和SAC空间计量模型以及ML估计和工具变量GMM估计方法,通过设定相邻、地表距离和最临近三种空间地理矩阵以及工业化水平、土地出让金收入占比、房地产投资占比、城市化水平和FDI五种经济变量空间矩阵,对当前城市政府间公共投资类财政支出的策略互动情况进行了评估与甄别。结果发现,城市政府在相邻地理位置上的显著互动———以策略互补为主,具有特定的外部性范围和变化轨迹,而工业禀赋型、"土地"财政型和FDI型策略互动的影响则具有同质性,且总体低于以外溢效应和标尺效应为主要源泉的地理空间位置上的策略互动水平。最后,文章对相应理论和政策含义进行了探讨。     

On Optimal Instrumental Variables Estimation of Stationary Time Series Models

In many time series models, an infinite number of moments can be used for estimation in a large sample. I supply a technically undemanding proof of a condition for optimal instrumental variables use of such moments in a parametric model. I also illustrate application of the condition in estimation of a linear model with a disturbance that is serially uncorrelated and conditionally heteroskedastic.     

Important overlooked IVs in spatial models

Spatial models often contain additional endogenous variables as regressors. The complete system determining these variables is typically not known to the researcher, and so maximum likelihood or Bayesian estimation methods are precluded. This leaves instrumental variable estimation. In all likelihood, the system may contain certain forms of nonlinearities. These nonlinearities might arise because of endogenous weighting matrices, functional form differences in the endogenous variables, etc. The existence of such nonlinearities strongly suggests the use of nonlinear forms of the instruments. Issues of this sort were pointed out in Kelejian and Piras (Spatial econometrics, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 2017) and Kelejian (Lett Spat Resour Sci 9(1):113–136, 2016). However, thus far Monte Carlo results relating to efficiencies gained by the use of nonlinear instrumental variables are not available. This is unfortunate because these efficiencies can be quite extensive. The purpose of this paper is to fill this void.     

The public sector and convergence with spatial interdependence: empirical evidence from Spain

We propose a framework to analyse convergence between regions, incorporating the public sector and technological knowledge spillovers in the context of a Neoclassical Growth Model. Second, we apply novel estimation methods pertaining to the spatial econometrics literature introducing a spatial Durbin panel data model based on instrumental variables and maximum-likelihood estimation. Our model makes it possible to analyse, in terms of convergence, the results obtained in Spanish regions with the policies implemented during the period 1980–2011. The results support the idea that education and fiscal policies have a positive effect on regional development and cohesion. Therefore, we can conclude that it is possible to obtain better results for regional convergence with higher rates of public investment in education and tax revenues. We also obtain interesting results that confirm the existence of spillover effects in economic growth and public policies, identifying their magnitude and significance.     

A semi-reduced form equation for the Sterling's real effective exchange rate

This paper derives and estimates a semi-reduced form expression for the UK's real effective exchange rate. The expression was derived following Blanchard and Kahn. Non-linear least squares and non-linear instrumental variables were used in estimation.     

Government size,democracy, and corruption: An empirical investigation

Previous studies on the effect of government size on corruption have produced mixed results. In an attempt to explain these ambiguous results, this study investigates the effect of government size on corruption by taking into account the role of the democracy in each country. Using annual data of 82 countries between 1995 and 2008, the estimation results indicate that an increase in government size can lead to a decrease in corruption if the democracy level is sufficiently high and, in contrast, can lead to an increase in corruption if it is too low. As robustness checks, the estimations using a different index of corruption and a different proxy for government size are also conducted. The results reveal that our main findings are robust. Furthermore, to address endogeneity problems, we conduct the instrumental variables estimation and the system generalized method of moments estimation, the results of which also support our primary findings. These results provide some important implications for policymakers seeking to perform government interventions without aggravating corruption.     

The Intergenerational Effects of Paternal Migration on Schooling and Work: What Can We Learn from Children's Time Allocations?

This paper explores the short-run effects of a father's U.S. migration on his children's schooling and work outcomes in Mexico. To get around the endogeneity of paternal migration, I use individual fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation (FEIV) where the instrumental variables are based on U.S. city-level employment statistics in two industries popular with Mexican immigrants. Overall, the estimates suggest that in the short-run, children reduce study hours and increase work hours in response to a father's U.S. migration. Decomposing the sample into sex- and age-specific groups suggests that this is mainly driven by the effects of paternal migration on 12-15 year-old boys. These results are consistent with a story in which the immediate aftermath of a father's migration is one of financial hardship that is borne in part by relatively young children.     

Redundancy of Moment Conditions in Restricted GMM Estimation

Using a novel approach to calculating the rank of the difference of two asymptotic variance matrices, The author derives the necessary and sufficient conditions for an extra set of moment conditions to be redundant given a set of moment conditions in GMM estimation with general nonlinear restrictions. The necessary and sufficient conditions derived in this paper include as a special case the redundancy of moment conditions for GMM estimation without restrictions that was first derived by Breusch et al. (1999). Therefore this paper advances the research on redundancy of moment conditions from unrestricted GMM estimation to a larger class of GMM estimation. To show their usefulness, the main results of the current paper are applied to instrumental variables estimation of linear regression models and the efficient estimation of seemingly unrelated regressions models, subject to restrictions.     

A Non-Parametric Test of Exogeneity

This paper presents a test for exogeneity of explanatory variables that minimizes the need for auxiliary assumptions that are not required by the definition of exogeneity. It concerns inference about a non-parametric function g that is identified by a conditional moment restriction involving instrumental variables (IV). A test of the hypothesis that g is the mean of a random variable Y conditional on a covariate X is developed that is not subject to the ill-posed inverse problem of non-parametric IV estimation. The test is consistent whenever g differs from E ( Y | X ) on a set of non-zero probability. The usefulness of this new exogeneity test is displayed through Monte Carlo experiments and an application to estimation of non-parametric consumer expansion paths.     

Endogeneity and measurement errors when estimating demand functions with average prices: an example from the movie market

Due to a lack of information about the prices faced by consumers, demand functions are sometimes estimated using average prices, namely total revenue divided by the number of consumers. Examples of this type of estimation can be found for cinema, sporting events and the performing arts since box office revenue is frequently available, though it is also common in other industrial markets. We construct a straightforward theoretical model showing that this practice introduces a specific type of measurement error that generates a major source of endogeneity into empirical research. Our theoretical framework also allows us, however, to find proper instruments for the endogenous price variables. An empirical application is provided using Spanish data on cinema attendance to illustrate the validity of the strategy proposed here to address this sort of endogeneity in an instrumental variable framework.     

Works council and training effects on satisfaction

This paper investigates the direct and indirect impact of works councils via further training on job satisfaction. Basic estimates on an individual level do not reveal clearly direct effects, but on an establishment level, the existence of a works council increases the average job satisfaction. We also find a positive, weakly significant effect on an individual level accompanied by training under instrumental variables estimation and if we control for personal characteristics.     

On the estimation and forecasting of international migration: how relevant is heterogeneity across countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967–2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample forecasting results indicate the following: (1) the standard fixed effects estimators clearly outperforms the pooled OLS estimator, (2) both the fixed effects estimators and the hierarchical Bayes estimator exhibit the superior forecast performance, (3) the fixed effects estimators outperform GMM and other instrumental variables estimators, (4) forecasting performance of heterogenous estimators is mediocre in our data set.     

Unemployment and output dynamics in CIS countries: Okun’s law revisited

Okun’s law is a well-known relationship between the change in the unemployment rate and output growth. The main objective of this article is to provide a rigorous econometric analysis of Okun’s law for several CIS countries using different models and theoretically justified econometric methods. The traditional approach to Okun’s law estimation using OLS regressions does not account for possible endogeneity of regressors and the implied inconsistency of the estimates obtained. These problems point out to incorrectness of applications of the standard OLS estimation techniques. Our study addresses these issues by using econometrically justified instrumental variable regression methods. The article provides the results and discussions on practical use of Okun’s relationships for evaluation of average effects of economic growth on the unemployment rate, and vice versa; importance of accounting for confidence intervals in applications of Okun’s models to economic development analysis and cross-country comparisons and evaluation of effects of crises and other structural shocks on the economies considered. We also discuss in detail the results of formal econometric tests and economic motivation for validity of instrumental variables used in the study. The formal econometric tests, together with economic arguments, allow us to determine the most appropriate Okun-type models for each of the CIS countries under consideration.     

Endowments,Culture and Economic Development

This paper investigates whether the geographic characteristics of a country can explain cross‐country variations in income levels through their ability to explain cross‐country variations in cultural traits that enhance economic development. In other words, this paper attempts to determine whether the geographic endowment can serve as an instrument in examining the effect of culture on economic development. The paper conducts two‐stage least‐squares regressions. The second stage is a regression of the logarithm of real gross domestic product per capita on each of the cultural attributes that are considered in this study. In the first stage, the geographic factors that statistically explain a cultural aspect are used as instrumental variables. The results of the empirical estimation show that the cultural variables, instrumented by the geographic variables, explain cross‐country variations in economic development.     

An invariance property of generalized classical linear estimators

When coefficients of endogenous variables are known, it is demonstrated that two-stage least squares and instrumental variable estimators are invariant to the form in which these variables enter computations, as raw data or estimates. Exclusion of instruments and knowledge of coefficients are related to identifiability testing, and a test presented.     

Does weight status affect academic performance? Evidence from Australian children

This article investigates the impact of children’s weight status on their academic performance using the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Children. Considering the endogeneity of the weight status variable (obesity or overweight), to obtain consistent estimates of its impact, we use the body mass index of biological parents as instrumental variables. The two-stage least square estimation shows that obesity or overweight has a significant negative impact on academic performance. Furthermore, the effect of child weight status is different across grade levels. Overweight has a larger negative impact on academic performance for senior year students, especially on numeracy.     

Do Urban Neighborhoods Benefit from Homeowners? Evidence from Housing Prices

Homeownership is heavily subsidized in most countries. The adverse effects of this policy on economic efficiency and income distribution are well documented in the economics literature. The main argument in favor of subsidizing homeownership is that it creates positive externalities that offset these adverse effects. In this paper, we test whether homeowners create positive externalities that capitalize into housing prices in multi‐storey buildings. Using semi‐parametric hedonic regressions with and without instrumental variables, we find no evidence of positive externalities, although the results with instrumental variables are somewhat imprecise. This result is robust to several sensitivity checks and to a relaxation of the identification assumptions of our instrument using set identification.     

Testing For Efficient Contracts In Unionized Labour Markets

This paper addresses the design of empirical tests to distinguish between two competing explanations of wage and employment determination in unionized labour markets, the labour-demand and efficient-contract models. We argue that most of the tests employed are restrictive, propose an alternative non-nested approach, a central feature of which is the variation in the set of instrumental variables across the models, and provide an illustration of how it might be implemented, using data from the Workplace Industrial Relations Survey (WIRS) 1984 Panel File. The results demonstrate how the traditional approach can lead to inappropriate conclusions, and thereby emphasize the empirical importance of the specification of the instrumental variables.