How do mutual recognition agreements influence trade?

This paper empirically tests how the magnitude of trade promotion effects of mutual recognition agreements (MRA s) varies with various mediums. The main rationale for the research is that because an MRA eliminates technical barriers to trade (TBT ), the trade promotion effects of MRA s are inversely much stronger if TBT originally restricted trade before their entry into force. Using data on MRA s and international trade in 34 countries and 22 manufacturing sectors covering 1995 to 2009, the paper empirically shows that the trade promotion effects of MRA s can be much stronger, depending on the type of contract, time period after the entry into force, components of exports, and country and industry characteristics such as technology level and global competitiveness. The results will provide insight for policy makers and stakeholders who cooperate with foreign countries in various regulations, especially in developing countries that have low levels of technology, competitiveness, and regulatory governance capacity.     

How does anti-corruption affect firm labour inputs? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

This study investigates the impact of anti-corruption on firm labour inputs. Using the province-by-province rollout of the central inspection team campaign in China, we find that the labour intensity rises by 9% in the firms located in the provinces inspected by the central inspection teams. Moreover, firms with low corruption are more susceptible to the policy shock.     

How do employee training and knowledge stocks affect product innovation?

The main purpose of this paper is to explore how interactions of knowledge flows and knowledge stocks could shape firms’ innovative performance. Knowledge flows are measured on the grounds of human resource training practices while different levels and forms of knowledge stocks (i.e. educational attainment, exporting activity, and firm age) are considered. We make use of two-period panel probit regressions and a rich data survey of the 524 largest Greek manufacturing firms conducted in two waves (2011 and 2013). Our findings suggest that the beneficial effects of knowledge flows strengthen when knowledge stocks accumulated by employees’ education and firm age are low. When knowledge stocks are limited, knowledge flows can act as a bridge for product innovation. On the contrary, when knowledge stocks are high, higher investments in knowledge flows may lead to diminishing returns and, thus, to decreased innovation performance beyond a certain point.     

How do neighboring peer companies influence SMEs’ financial behavior?

Recent research into corporate finances has found that the financial decisions of peer companies are related. Companies tend to “kept an eye” on the decisions of other peer companies, among other things, trying to overcome the limitations caused by the lack of information. This paper further examines these interactions including geographical proximity among companies. With this aim, we use a heterogeneous Partial Adjustment Model on a sample of 12,444 small and medium Spanish manufacturing industrial companies. We find strong nonlinearities in the adjustment processes of liquidity, indebtedness and profitability ratios associated with basic characteristics of the companies such as size, technology, age or financial imbalances. Our results indicate that the influence of the environment on the financial behavior of each company, and its responsiveness, vary in function of neighbor firms’ characteristics.     

How does firm diversification impact innovation?

This study sheds light on the relationship between business diversification and innovation. A diversification strategy is both a driver of sunk costs and strategic slack. Strategic slack is a valuable reserve of knowledge, usable to foster innovation. Using linear models, we explore the interplay between research and development (R&D) and organisational slack in large and diversified companies listed on the Euronext 100 Index. We consider the diversification pattern over time, and its interactions with the following three categories: sunk costs, slack resources, and R&D. The results show an antithetic effect of diversification and slack on R&D expenditures. In contrast to unabsorbed and potential slack, diversification and sunk costs hinder innovation. However, diversification is a huge source of strategic slack and, thus, has a positive effect on innovation, indirectly.     

How well do patent citations measure flows of technology? Evidence from French innovation surveys

Patent citation data are used in a growing body of economics and business research on technological diffusion. Until now, there exists little evidence on whether patent citations are a good measure of knowledge flows. Our paper assesses the legitimacy of using European patent citations as a measure of technology flows. It uses information from the Community Innovation Survey collected by the French Service des Statistiques Industrielles (SESSI), which contain firms’ responses to questions about their innovative activity. We show that patent citations are indeed related to firms’ statements about their acquisition and dispersion of new technology, but that the strength and statistical significance of this relationship varies across geographical regions and across channels of knowledge diffusion.     

Do entry barriers reduce productivity? Evidence from a natural experiment

I study how entry barriers affect productivity by exploiting the collapse of the US sugar cartel as a natural experiment. Using difference-in-difference estimations, I find the eradication of entry barriers caused a 35% increase in productivity within the treatment group.     

How does cooperative innovation affect innovation performance? Evidence from Chinese firms

This paper explores the impact of different cooperation networks upon their cooperative innovation effect (CIE) and innovation performance, and examined the relationship between the CIE and the innovation performance of firms. Some interesting findings appear. First, the findings indicate that there are significant and positive relationships between the seven cooperation networks and the CIE of firms, of which the internal cooperation network has the most significant and positive impact on their CIE. Second, the findings also reveal that there are significant and positive relationships between the six cooperation networks, except firm–government cooperation (FGC) and the innovation performance of firms. Third, contrary to some studies from developed countries, the results reveal that FGC does not demonstrate any significant impact on the innovation performance of firms. These results enrich and supplement the current understanding of the relationships between cooperation networks and innovation performance.     

How do great shocks influence the correlation between oil and international stock markets?

We investigate the impacts of great shocks (2003 Iraq War and 2008 Financial Crisis) on the correlations between oil and US/China stock markets, utilizing a novel MADCC (mixed asymmetry dynamic conditional correlation) model. This model successfully captures the coexistence of opposite signed asymmetries. We find that great shocks indeed increased the correlations. Further, results from the news impact surfaces indicate that correlations between oil and stock markets are higher to joint negative shocks; however, correlation between stock markets has stronger response to joint positive shocks.     

How much profit shifting do European banks do?

This paper studies whether and to what extent the largest and systemically relevant European multinational banks engage in profit shifting to lower their tax burden. We exploit unique data on bank operations reported on a country-by-country basis since 2015 in compliance with European legislation. The dataset contains information on profits, turnover, taxes paid and employment of bank affiliates worldwide, including tax and regulatory havens. In our empirical model, profits shifting incentives are captured through a weighted average of international tax rate differences between all countries where the bank is active. We find that international tax differences trigger the geographical distribution of profits within multinational banks, and that low tax jurisdictions, notably tax havens, attract disproportionately high profits. Our results suggest that, overall, 21% of profits is shifted. Moreover, profits in tax havens are 51% higher than they would be without tax-motivated profit shifting, pointing to a significant reduction of tax bases in high-tax countries.     

How do US credit supply shocks propagate internationally? A GVAR approach

We study how US credit supply shocks are transmitted to other economies. We use the recently developed GVAR approach to model financial variables jointly with macroeconomic variables in 33 countries for the period 1983–2009. We experiment with inter-country links based on bilateral trade, portfolio investment, foreign direct investment and banking exposures. Capturing both bilateral trade and financial exposures in a GVAR fits the data better than using trade weights only. We use sign restrictions on the short-run impulse responses in the US model to identify the credit supply shocks. We find that negative credit supply shocks have strong negative effects on US and foreign GDP. Credit and equity markets in several countries respond clearly to the shocks. Exchange rate responses are consistent with a “flight to quality” to the US dollar. The credit supply shocks explain about a fifth of one-year-ahead output forecast error variance in the US and about a tenth in the euro area and the UK, but considerably less elsewhere.     

Is high-speed rail heading towards a low-carbon industry? Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Existing studies have investigated the environmental dividends of substituting high-speed rail (HSR) for other energy-intensive vehicles from an engineering standpoint, but they have yet to explore the economic effects of HSR and the associated carbon emissions reduction benefits. To fill the research gap, we use panel data from 285 Chinese cities between 2004 and 2014, and employ a spatial difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of HSR opening on industrial CO₂ emissions. After controlling for spillover effects from neighboring HSR cities, our results show that cities offering HSR services significantly reduce their own industrial CO₂ emissions. This finding is robust and is unaffected by outliers, control group selection, time trends, geography and expectation factors, or endogeneity. The mechanism test reveals that the structural transformation effect, technological innovation effect, and investment attractiveness effect are three intermediate influence channels. Further research finds that the emissions reduction benefit increases as the spatial and temporal intensities of HSR openings ascend the ladder, and HSR services have a spillover effect within a 300-kilometer radius. Moreover, the carbon benefit of China’s HSR far surpasses its carbon footprint, indicating that China’s HSR is green after accounting for economic emissions reductions that were often neglected in prior research. Based on these findings, we recommend that China accelerate HSR expansion in order to reduce carbon emissions in a scientific and responsible manner.     

How important are dual economy effects for aggregate productivity?

This paper brings together development accounting techniques and the dual economy model to address the role that factor markets have in creating variation in aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). Development accounting research has shown that much of the variation in income across countries can be attributed to differences in TFP. The dual economy model suggests that aggregate productivity is depressed by having too many factors allocated to low productivity work in agriculture. Data show large differences in marginal products of similar factors within many developing countries, offering prima facie evidence of this misallocation. Using a simple two-sector decomposition of the economy, this article estimates the role of these misallocations in accounting for the cross-country income distribution. A key contribution is the ability to bring sector-specific data on human and physical capital stocks to the analysis. Variation across countries in the degree of misallocation is shown to account for 30–40% of the variation in income per capita, and up to 80% of the variation in aggregate TFP.     

How do experts forecast sovereign spreads?

This paper assesses how forecasting experts form their expectations about future government bond spreads. Using monthly survey forecasts for France, Italy and the United Kingdom between January 1993 and October 2014, we test whether respondents consider the expected evolution of the fiscal balance—and other economic fundamentals—to be significant drivers of the expected bond yield differential over a benchmark German 10-year bond. Our main result is that a projected improvement of the fiscal outlook significantly reduces expected sovereign spreads. This suggests that credible fiscal plans affect market experts’ expectations and reduce the pressure on sovereign bond markets. In addition, we show that expected fundamentals generally play a more important role in explaining forecasted spreads compared to realized spreads.