Can the Islamic bank be an emerging leader? A panel data causality analysis

This short note investigates the ability of Islamic banks (IBs) to play a leading role in revamping and driving conventional banking. To this end, we used a panel of 10 major conventional banks (CBs) and 10 IBs over the period 2006–2013. We applied panel regression tests and carried out a panel causality analysis. Our findings identified no significant causality effect from IBs to CBs and indicated that IBs are not able to play a role of leader.     

国际金融危机与我国宏观经济政策反思

国际金融危机使得全球贸易与金融旧秩序被重新审视,新的变革即将开始。面对国际局势,我国必须立足国情,认真分析与反思当前一揽子经济刺激计划,在政策方针和微观经济活动之间建立有效的宏观政策传导机制,以政府投资引导和激发民间投资,改革阻碍发展的体制机制约束,尽早考虑大规模计划的退出机制,为获得长期发展战略竞争优势未雨绸缪,在国际政策博弈中牢牢争取把握主动。     

金融危机冲击与企业现金持有的动态调整

运用动态面板模型及系统GMM估计方法,得出不同财务特征的企业在解释现金持有及动态调整速度与成本方面的差异,发现金融危机会显著增加公司调整持有现金的成本。进一步分析显示,正常状况下公司进行现金调整的资金来源主要依靠银行贷款与经营性现金流量,但在金融危机冲击时,中国上市公司对银行融资性资金来源的依赖更为明显,这与我国以银行为主体的间接融资方式相一致。     

Winners and losers from financial derivatives use: evidence from community banks

This article provides empirical evidence on how profitability of small community banks was affected by derivatives use before and after the 2008 crisis. We use an endogenous switching regressions model to estimate the sensitivity of bank profitability to risks and control for the endogenous choice to use or not to use derivatives. We then compute counterfactual effects and show how profitability would have looked without derivatives use for banks that used derivatives and how it would have looked with derivatives for banks that did not use derivatives. The results show that derivatives helped reduce the sensitivity of profitability to credit risks and improved profitability for most specialists. However, for the largest number of banks which are non-user non-specialists, devivates use would have resulted in lower return on assets had they used derivatives post 2008. Therefore, our evidence suggests that implementation of the Volcker Rule, imposing high compliance costs on community banks and, thus, discouraging hedging, may have a negative impact on profits of specialists banks but, overall, a neutral effect on profits in the community banks industry as a whole.     

Are Islamic finance innovations enough for investors to escape from a financial downturn? Further evidence from portfolio simulations

Does Islamic finance constitute a promising solution for the current global financial crisis and are Islamic financial innovations enough to reassure investors, stabilize financial systems and provide them with a means of escaping from financial downturns? This article addresses these questions while investigating the dynamics of Islamic and conventional stock prices over the last few years. In particular, we apply Multivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) tools to test the interaction between conventional and Islamic financial products, and implement the Granger causality test to specify the dependence orientation of feedback between Islamic and conventional stock prices. Our article differs from previous work on the topic in that it develops portfolio simulations to determine whether Islamic finance can supplant conventional finance by generating investment and diversification opportunities during periods of crisis. In addition, we develop optimal portfolio strategies and investment proportions for conventional and Islamic funds to ensure the best resource allocation. Our main findings are: (i) the impact of the current crisis on the Islamic finance industry is less marked than on conventional finance, (ii) investment in Islamic products generates high returns, (iii) portfolios that include Islamic products reduce systemic risk and generate significant diversification benefits, (iv) the US crisis has led to significant changes in resource allocation through changes in investment choices.     

金融危机对资本充足率监管与银行风险承担激励的影响：基于我国上市银行的实证比较

运用局部调整模型和三阶最小二乘法（3SLS）,分析了金融危机如何影响资本充足率监管与商业银行的风险承担激励之间的关系,并首次分析了金融危机发生前后我国上市银行在面临资本监管压力下资本水平与风险水平的调整。结果表明,金融危机强化了银行的资本充足率监管效果,但也增强了银行的风险承担激励,这与监管当局试图通过资本充足率监管达到维持银行系统稳定性的初衷相违背。此外,金融危机的发生没有显著影响银行资本调整与风险调整之间的关系。     

Did the global financial crisis alter the competitive conditions in the Indian banking industry?

This article addresses a pertinent research question: Did the global financial crisis alter the competitive conditions in the Indian banking industry? In order to find the answer of this research question, we applied a dynamic version of the non-structural Panzar-Rosse model on a unique unbalanced panel dataset of Indian banks spanning over the period from 1998/99 to 2015/16. The robust estimates of H-statistic computed on the basis of the generalized method of moments estimates of the elasticities of input prices show that (i) Indian banks earned their interest and total revenue under monopolistic competition throughout the whole of the sample period and (ii) the global financial crisis altered the competitive conditions in the banking industry, and market moved closer to perfect competition following the financial crisis, especially when interest-bearing activities were in focus.     

关于金融危机时期金融自由化的反思

美国金融危机在全世界范围引发了对金融领域发展尤其是20世纪下半叶以来的金融自由化的重新思考。在后危机时期,对金融自由化的反思仍显重要。采用研究金融自由化影响的标准化模型,加入主权债务风险等因素进行修正,进而获得启示,并对我国金融领域发展提出建议。     

皖江城市文化资本财政投入对经济增长的影响——基于面板数据实证研究

皖江城市是国家级承接产业转移示范区,产业承接涉及到方方面面,文化通过文化资本在产业承接中发挥重要作用,促进经济增长。文章构建了文化资本的经济增长模型,并在面板数据分析过程中对模型选择和变量间协整关系进行检验,在此基础上建立带有回归的个体固定效应模型。实证分析结果表明两种文化资本财政投入对经济增长贡献率较高并且相当。进而对皖江城市文化资本投资提出一些建议。     

探析《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》框架下中国银行业的发展

《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》是美国金融危机后银行监管领域最重要的改革方案之一,其核心内容在于重新制定了资本性指标、流动性指标以及杠杆率指标等方面的监管要求。《巴塞尔协议Ⅲ》必将对我国银行业产生深远影响。我国的银行业在监管不断趋紧的政策环境中,最优的策略就是注重资本质量,向＂轻资本＂模式靠拢,走特色发展的道路。     

Some preliminary evidence of the impact of the 2008–2009 financial crisis on women

Beginning in late 2007 and into 2008, a financial crisis originating in the United States spread throughout the world. This article seeks to present preliminary evidence of the impact of this crisis on female labour force participation and the proportion of females working in nonagricultural sectors. A panel data set involving 171 countries is utilized, and the results indicate that the financial crisis led to increases in female labour force participation as well as the proportion of females working in the nonagricultural sector. There are differences in impact for countries of various income levels (low, middle and high). In addition, female political power has also led to increases in the economic participation of females.     

跨国银行介入后与东道国银行竞争的分析

在金融自由化的进程中,跨国银行的大量介入成为一个普遍的现象。跨国银行对母国和东道国银行业的影响已引起许多学者的关注,但现有文献多是定性讨论或运用计量经济的方法进行经验分析。而本文试图通过一个简洁的一般均衡模型加以探讨,并且利用数值模拟,使模型结果更显直观。从研究方法上讲,文章对跨国银行介入的规范分析做了一定的尝试。     

金融周期对宏观经济稳定的影响异质性分析

宏观经济稳定长期以来作为中国宏观调控的重要目标,在\"新常态\"时期被更加广泛关注。金融稳定作为宏观经济稳定的必要条件,以洞悉金融周期为前提,要求细究金融周期变量对宏观经济运行的影响,为政策精准性提供支持。本文利用相关金融周期和宏观经济变量季度数据,使用滤波方法找出宏观经济的波动和平稳时期,运用机器学习算法验证所选输入变量与输出变量的匹配度,并测度各输入变量对输出变量的重要度。本文发现波动期和平稳时期宏观经济表现虽有不同,但资产价格指数和信贷水平对各宏观经济变量的重要度之和都达到50%以上,而其他金融周期变量如利差、杠杆率和金融机构风险暴露的重要度则有限。这表明相关政策需有的放矢,相较于无差别的大规模释放流动性,可将重心置于维护资产价格稳定和优化信贷政策配给,为宏观经济稳定保驾护航。     

Growth versus Conservation: A Veblenian Perspective

This article is concerned with the role of institutions in organizing the economy and argues with some neoclassical and Marxist positions. The neoclassical approach usually ignores the role of institutions, while its “public choice-property rights” extensions overemphasize the market solution to market failure problems. The Marxist approach is useful in relating institutions to the conflicts of interest, but tends to be overoptimistic about possibilities of social control of economic activities.