Terms of Trade Shocks and Endogenous Search Unemployment: A Two‐Sector Model with Non‐Traded Goods

We develop a simple and tractable two‐sector search model featuring a non‐traded sector and endogenous search unemployment to examine the impact of terms of trade shocks on unemployment. We show that changes in terms of trade will not only lead to employment reallocation across sectors, as in the traditional trade models, but, more importantly, impact upon search unemployment within each sector. Specifically, we show that an improvement (deterioration) of terms of trade reduces (increases) unemployment rates in both traded and non‐traded sectors.     

Regulator flexibility and the administrative allocation licensing of 3G spectrum

Globally, most nations assign radio spectrum to provide 3G mobile services during the period 1999–2007. While there is consensus among most economists that auctions are the preferred assignment mechanism, the assignment mode is split, more or less, equally (in terms of the number of licences issued) between administrative allocations and auctions. With auction procedures tending to raise more revenue for governments (Cartelier, 2003) the question that naturally arises is: why are administrative allocations so popular a method to assign spectrum? McMillan (1995) conjectures that administrative allocations provide additional ‘flexibility’. Accordingly, this study examines the performance of 3G assignments in terms of an econometric analysis of a unique sample of national 3G spectrum administrative allocations. These outcomes are modelled as depending on spectrum package attributes, and post-award network deployment requirements.     

Country-of-Origin Rules: Its Origin, Nature, and Directions for Reform

In a world of increasing specialization and division of labour, the designation of one country of origin to a product is becoming increasingly out of touch with reality and is getting more and more costly in terms of the investment and trade-diversion effects that country-of-origin rules (COR) cause. This paper proposes an extension of the Lloyd (1993) proposal, formalizing it into a multiple country-of-origin rule and recommending it on the basis of the more accurate information content it provides and the greater economic efficiency that results.     

Flexible exchange rates as shock absorbers

In this paper we analyze empirically the effect of terms of trade shocks on economic performance under alternative exchange rate regimes. We are particularly interested in investigating whether terms of trade disturbances have a smaller effect on growth in countries with a flexible exchange rate arrangement. We also analyze whether negative and positive terms of trade shocks have asymmetric effects on growth, and whether the magnitude of these asymmetries depends on the exchange rate regime. We find evidence suggesting that terms of trade shocks get amplified in countries that have more rigid exchange rate regimes. We also find evidence of an asymmetric response to terms of trade shocks: the output response is larger for negative than for positive shocks. Finally, we find evidence supporting the view that, after controlling for other factors, countries with more flexible exchange rate regimes grow faster than countries with fixed exchange rates.     

Dynamic entrepreneurship and technology-based innovation

This paper seeks to distinguish between dynamic and static entrepreneurship. We define the construct of dynamic entrepreneurship in terms of Schumpeterian innovativeness and then develop a hypothesis suggesting that human capital is conducive to such action. In contrast, a paucity of human capital is more conducive to static entrepreneurship (defined in terms of organizational or ownership status). Based on a rich data set of entrepreneurs receiving research funding through the U.S. Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, our empirical evidence suggests that academic-based human capital is positively correlated with dynamic behavior, whereas as business-based human capital and prior business experience is not.     

Structural Change in OECD Export Specialisation Patterns: de-specialisation and ‘stickiness’

This paper examines whether the OECD countries are characterised by a high degree of stability of their export specialisation patterns at the country level or not. Furthermore, we test whether the countries have become more or less specialised. In this context we distinguish between specialisation (or de-specialisation) in trade patterns on the one hand, and divergence (or, on the contrary, convergence) on the other. A specialisation process refers to a process in which specialisation intra-country becomes more dispersed (and counter-wise for de-specialisation). In contrast, a divergence process refers to a process in which countries become more different in terms of specialisation in a particular sector, across countries (and counter-wise for convergence). We examine the sensitivity for the level of aggregation, and we apply a period of nearly three decades from 1965 to 1992. Twenty OECD countries are considered. The intra-country results show that the national specialisation patterns are rather sticky, although there is a tendency for countries to de-specialise in the medium to long term. The sector-wise results display convergence both in terms of β-and σ-convergence. In conclusion, we discuss the results (de-specialisation in particular) in the context of economic integration, and furthermore we contrast the findings with similar exercises conducted on structural change in technological specialisation.     

Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study investigates the impact of climate change adaptation on farm households’ downside risk exposure in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. The analysis relies on a moment-based specification of the stochastic production function. We use an empirical strategy that accounts for the heterogeneity in the decision on whether to adapt or not, and for unobservable characteristics of farmers and their farm. We find that past adaptation to climate change (i) reduces current downside risk exposure, and so the risk of crop failure; (ii) would have been more beneficial to the non-adapters if they adapted, in terms of reduction in downside risk exposure; and (iii) is a successful risk management strategy that makes the adapters more resilient to climatic conditions.     

IN TANDEM OR OUT OF SYNC? ACADEMIC ECONOMICS RESEARCH AND PUBLIC POLICY MEASURES

This paper investigates whether academic research attention to certain policy‐related measures (including gross domestic product, unemployment, and inflation) is correlated with empirical measurements of the measures themselves. In other words, when unemployment rises, does research attention to the matter increase? Or do economists pursue research (in the short run) relatively uninfluenced by policy shocks on the ground? Text analysis implies that economic attention to key policy terms does correlate with empirical movements of the terms in most instances; however, the stronger and more consistent correlation is between use of policy terms in the literature and discussion of them by the broader public. (JEL A11, H00)     

Antecedents and consequences of green innovation in the wine industry: the role of channel structure

In this study, we place green innovation in a broader technology development, commercialisation and distribution context to test hypotheses in three areas: (1) the internal vs external drivers of green innovation; (2) the effect of green innovation on business performance; and (3) the role of channel structures (the degree to which producers sell directly to consumers or businesses) in making green innovation more productive in terms of business performance. To test our hypotheses, data from an international survey among 123 wineries is used. Our results suggest that internal drivers, i.e. environmental management and quality management in particular, play a greater role than external drivers (e.g. government and regulatory pressures) on the adoption of green innovation strategies. Producing and using organic products and processes and recycling activities are found to have a significant direct positive impact on business performance. Our results also confirm the moderating effect of channel structures: the benefits of green innovation in terms of business performance are larger when firms use more direct sales channels (selling wine directly from the wine cellar to consumers and businesses).     

Adaptive Preferences and Capabilities: Some Preliminary Conceptual Explorations

The Capability Approach (CA) as developed by Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum, has in part been a response to the problem of adaptive preferences. Their argument says that people might adapt to certain unfavorable circumstances and any self-evaluation in terms of satisfaction or happiness will in this case necessarily be distorted. To evaluate people's well-being in terms of functionings and capabilities guarantees a more objective picture of people's life. Next to this strong criticism on subjective measurements of well-being, we observe an increasing interest in Subjective Well-Being (SWB) or Happiness studies that are included in the broader field of Hedonic Psychology. In this paper, we thus revise the original critique of adaptive preferences and compare it with a more detailed analysis of adaptation as it is presented in hedonic psychology. It becomes clear that adaptation can be a positive as well as a negative phenomenon and that the adaptive preference critique had a particular narrow view on adaptation. However, this does not mean SWB-research is not any longer susceptible to this critique. An alternative way to assess people's subjective well-being, but which could be considered to be more in line with the CA, is proposed by Daniel Kahneman's Objective Happiness. These are all relatively new considerations, especially in economics. Therefore much more research needs to be done on the positive and negative aspects of adaptation to understand its consequences on well-being – especially when evaluated within the capability-space.     

R&D contribution in TFP growth of Greek industry: A limited information likelihood approach

We provide a novel panel model to decompose total factor productivity (TFP) growth in the Greek industry at the firm level while we tackle the contribution of R&D. We, therefore, opt for parametric methodology that provides statistical inference and would validate the results. Our modeling departs from prior strong assumptions such as error terms across firms being independent. In fact, we provide a novel limited information maximum likelihood (LIML) estimation method that adequately deals with the issue of endogeneity and model misspecification. We demonstrate that our model detects variability in terms of TFP growth components across industries and firms. Our results show that R&D would enhance TFP of Greek firms, albeit the crisis has had a detrimental impact. Financial ratios such as liquidity and solvency ratios also affect TFP as we demonstrate that both would enhance TFP. The solvency ratio is important as it provides an estimate of whether the firm can cope with debt. We also note variability across small versus medium and large firms and report that small firms are more productive and spend more of their revenues on R&D. In terms of policy, our evidence warrants higher R&D spending to enhance TFP growth, though R&D funding is a concern.     

The impact of FTAs on MENA trade in agricultural and industrial products

This article analyses the impact of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) on Middle East and North African Countries (MENA) trade for the period 1994–2010. The analysis distinguishes between industrial and agricultural trade to take into account the different liberalization schedules. An augmented gravity model is estimated using up-to-date panel data techniques to control for all time-invariant bilateral factors that influence bilateral trade as well as for the so-called multilateral resistance factors. We also control for the endogeneity of the agreements and test for self-selection bias due to the presence of zero trade in our sample. The main findings indicate that North–South-FTAs and South–South-FTAs have a differential impact in terms of increasing trade in MENA countries, with the former being more beneficial in terms of exports for MENA countries, but both showing greater global market integration. We also find that FTAs that include agricultural products, in which MENA countries have a clear comparative advantage, have more favourable effects for these countries than those only including industrial products.     

Current Account, Capital Formation and Terms of Trade Shocks: a Revisit of the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect

This paper extends the Blanchard model of a closed-economy to a three-good (exportable, importable and non-tradable goods) open-economy model with capital accumulation and uncertain lifetimes to study the impacts of terms of trade shocks on the current account. The simulation results show that a model with uncertain lifetimes is more appropriate to describe a small open economy like Taiwan at the steady-state equilibrium than a model with infinite lifetimes. We find that the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect is discernible for temporary or permanent terms of trade shocks. Furthermore, the steady state is a saddle point and the speed of convergence of capital and consumption is quite low.     

The effect of firm maturity on corporate social responsibility (CSR): do older firms invest more in CSR?

Motivated by the literature on corporate life cycles, we explore the effect of firm maturity on corporate social responsibility (CSR). Our results based on over 26 000 observations across 21 years reveal that more mature firms invest significantly more in CSR. Furthermore, we find that the effect of firm maturity is not uniform across different categories of CSR. As firms get older, they become much more responsible in terms of diversity and environmental awareness, whereas the effect of firm ageing is much weaker in terms of human rights and product safety. Our study is the first to link corporate life cycles to CSR.     

Democracy and the Variability of Economic Performance

Sah (1991) conjectured that more centralized societies should have more volatile economic performances than less centralized ones. We show in this paper that this is true both for cross–country and within–country variability in growth rates. It is also true for some measures of policies. Finally, we show that both the best and worst performers in terms of growth rates are more likely to be autocracies. We argue that the evidence in the paper is consistent with the theoretical implications in Sah and Stiglitz (1991) and Rodrik (1999a).     

Advertising and the aggregate demand for cigarettes

The study specifies a model which explains aggregate demand for cigarettes in terms of price, income and advertising. Publicity about the health effects of smoking is treated as a form of ‘anti-advertising’. A distinctive feature is that an attempt is made to measure advertising in terms of ‘messages’ rather than using the more common, but theoretically inappropriate, expenditure measure. The model is tested against quarterly U.K. data for the period 1957 II to 1968 IV, using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. The results suggest that advertising had a positive, statistically significant impact on sales, and that this impact was only partly offset by the amount of publicity given to the health effects of smoking.     

So alike,yet so different: Comparing fiscal multipliers across EU members and candidates

We estimate, using a Panel Vector Autoregressive approach and data from 2001Q1 to 2017Q1, the fiscal multipliers of the European Union (EU) members and candidates. These countries are grouped according to their stages of integration: original members, new Eurozone members, and candidates for the Eurozone and the EU itself. For each group, we assess the impact of a positive spending shock (expansionary) or a positive tax shock (contractionary) on GDP. Our findings suggest that: (i) rising government spending increases GDP in both the EU and Eurozone candidates (Keynesian multipliers), but slightly decreases it in the Eurozone members (non-Keynesian multipliers); (ii) higher taxes are associated with mixed results in terms of GDP dynamics - both increases and decreases in terms of GDP are found - in the four country groups (suggesting the presence of Keynesian and non-Keynesian multipliers). Overall, these outcomes indicate that spending multipliers are, compared to tax multipliers, more sensitive to European Union or Eurozone membership.     

The Carrot vs. the Stick in Work Team Motivation

This paper reports on the use of carrot (positive) and stick (negative) incentives as methods of increasing effort among members of work teams. We study teams of four members in a laboratory environment in which giving effort towards the team goal is simulated by eliciting voluntary contributions towards the provision of a public good. We test the efficiency-improving properties of four distinct environments: monetary prizes given to high contributors versus monetary fines assessed to low contributors, where high/low contributor is defined first in terms of absolute contributions and then in terms of contributions relative to abilities—which we call handicapping. Our results show that both carrot and stick can increase efficiency (i.e., contributions) levels by 10–28%. We find that handicapped incentives promise the highest efficiency levels, and when handicapping is not used penalties may be more effective than prizes. The implications for work teams and suggestions for practical implementation are discussed.     

软预算约束制度成因研究的现状与逻辑

本文试图总结关于软预算约束制度成因的既有研究,并就研究逻辑、基本思想提出建设性批评意见.指出,这些研究在如何理解软预算约束,什么是制度成因,以及研究的方法论这三个问题上有着较大的分歧,今后的研究既要充分发展软预算约束概念,又要充分探讨制度作用的因果逻辑.在此基础上作者给出了一个全面研究软预算约束的综合性研究框架.