Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Euro Area consolidation

We estimate the impact of the fiscal consolidation actions in the Euro Area between 2011 and 2013 on output and public finances. We identify the discretionary fiscal consolidation effort based on new data by the European Commission. We combine these data with robust estimates from a rich meta-regression analysis on multipliers for various fiscal measures under different business cycle regimes. The frontloaded consolidation came at a considerable cost with an output loss of 7.7% and only a small gain to the primary balance of 0.2% of GDP. Backloading would have been much less costly due to lower multipliers.     

Fiscal discipline and exchange rates: Does politics matter?

We look at the effect of exchange rate regimes on fiscal discipline, taking into account the effect of underlying political conditions. We present a model where strong politics (defined as policymakers facing longer political horizon and higher cohesion) are associated with better fiscal performance, but fixed exchange rates may revert this result and lead to less fiscal discipline. We confirm these hypotheses through regression analysis performed on a panel sample covering 79 countries from 1975 to 2012. Our empirical results also show that the positive effect of strong politics on fiscal discipline is not enough to counter the negative impact of being at/moving to fixed exchange rates. Our results are robust to a number of sensitivity checks, including the use of different estimators, alternative proxies for fiscal discipline and sub-sample analysis.     

Structural reforms and fiscal adjustments: policy options for the euro area

This paper analyses the effects of structural reform and fiscal consolidation policies in the Euro Area using a stylized new-Keynesian model. A number of issues are focused upon: (i) the modelling and effects of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, and (ii) evaluation of alternative reform and consolidation scenarios, including their joint implementation.     

Macroeconomic effects of Slovenia’s integration in the Euro Area

On 1 January 2007, Slovenia entered the Euro Area as the first of the ten new EU member states. By means of simulations with SLOPOL6, a macroeconometric model of the Slovene economy, this paper examines which macroeconomic effects can be expected from this event. It is shown that Euro Area accession brings about temporarily higher real GDP growth, a permanently higher GDP level, more employment, temporarily lower inflation and a permanently lower price level. On the other hand, both public finances and the current account deteriorate.      

Testing the demand regime hypothesis in the Euro Area. Evidence from a VAR approach

The article brings new evidence that intra Euro Area trade imbalances should be thought of as the outcome of the interaction of opposing growth strategies between northern/surplus countries (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Netherlands) and southern/deficit countries (France, Italy, Portugal, Spain). By using a vector autoregression model, econometric evidence clarifies that the demand regime in the southern region is wage-led, while profit-led in the northern region. Moreover, a downward-wage adjustment in the northern region (negative wage shock) contributed to increasing the intra-EA trade surplus vis-à-vis the southern region by far more than an upward-wage adjustment in the southern region (positive wage shock).     

Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area and the Role of Expectations

This paper examines the empirical performance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve and its hybrid specification in the euro area. Instead of imposing rational expectations, direct measures, i.e. OECD forecasts, are used as empirical proxies for economic agents’ inflation expectations. Real marginal costs are proxied by three alternative measures. The results suggest that once the rational expectations hypothesis is relaxed and directly measured expectations are used, the European inflation process can be modeled using the forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve. However, when allowing for possible non-rationalities in expectations, inflation can be modeled more accurately by the hybrid Phillips curve with the additional lagged inflation term. In this approach, output gap turns out to be at least as good as labor income share as a proxy for real marginal cost. Moreover, the inflation process seems to have become more forward-looking in the recent years of low and stable inflation.The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Bank of Finland. Special thanks are due to the editor, two anonymous referees, Juha Tarkka, Jouko Vilmunen and Matti Virén for useful comments. I am also grateful to David Mayes and Geoffrey Wood for helpful suggestions and to Heli Tikkunen for excellent research assistance. For their constructive comments, I would also thank participants in the conference on the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network at the ECB, which was held in Frankfurt in December 2003.     

The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model

The global financial crisis (2008–09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences—in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999–2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008–09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems.     

Periodograms on fiscal illusion: discussing the cycle lengths of public finances in European countries

In this article, we study the duration of public finance cycles in 12 European countries since 1960. We applied periodogram techniques on the levels of fiscal illusion found for these established democracies and tested the statistical significance of the Fourier frequency peaks. Our empirical efforts revealed that most of the cycles in these countries could be characterized as long-term cycles (approximately 30 years), embodying subcycles of approximately 15 years. These findings show that in addition to the commonly studied electoral cycles or real business cycles, our democracies demonstrate extended public finance cycles that extend over various legislative tenures ruled by different political parties.     

Multiple Wage Bargaining Systems in the Single European Currency Area

Little attention in the EMU literature has been paid to the interaction between centralbank monetary rules and systems of collective wage bargaining. Analytically andempirically, coordinated wage bargaining systems respond with real wage restraintto non-accommodating monetary policy. Since wage determination is dominated bycollective bargaining in all the EMU member states and wage coordination within themember states has grown since 1980, this is a topic of potential importance. In particular, the replacement of the Bundesbank, directly targeting German inflation, by an ECB targeting European inflation has removed a major institutional support of wage restraint in Germany. The consequences of this for EMU are worked out under two scenarios, that inflation expectations will be generated by ECB monetary policy and that they will reflect German inflation outcomes. Possible institutional developments are discussed including government-union bargains. The Bundesbank has also played a major role in maintaining fiscal rectitude by targeting excess fiscal deficits in Germany: again its replacement by the ECB – targeting (if at all) European rather than German fiscal policy – loosens fiscal constraints. For underlying structural reasons therefore, it is possible that Germany and other EMU countries will move to a period of fiscal activism with wage restraint and low inflation purchased through social contract negotiations.     

Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU: An optimal currency area perspective

In the light of the recent financial crisis, we take a panel cointegration approach that allows for structural breaks to the analysis of the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in nine economies of the European Monetary Union. We find evidence for a level break in the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, results show that (i) fiscal imbalances – namely expected government debt-to-GDP differentials – are the main long-run drivers of sovereign spreads; (ii) liquidity risks and cumulated inflation differentials have non-negligible weights; but (iii) all conclusions are ultimately connected to whether or not the sample of countries is composed of members of an Optimal Currency Area (OCA). In particular, we establish (i) that results are overall driven by those countries not passing the OCA test; and (ii) that investors closely monitor and severely punish the deterioration of expected debt positions of those economies exhibiting significant gaps in competitiveness.     

On the Strong Liberal State: Beyond Berghahn and Young

The paper is a reply to Berghahn and Young's reflections on Bonefeld's ‘Freedom and the Strong State’. It argues that ordoliberalism focuses on the strong state as the political form of free economy.     

Credit risk and sustainable debt: a model and estimations of why the Euro is stable in the long-run

Sustainable debt has become the key issue in rating of private as well as sovereign debtors. The problem of how to estimate sustainable debt has also been at the center of the debate over the Asian 1997–1998 financial crisis. If the external value of the currency depends on the external debt of a country, it is necessary to estimate the creditworthiness of the country. This paper studies credit risk and sustainable debt in the context of a dynamic model. For a dynamic growth model with an additional equation for the evolution of debt, we demonstrate of how to compute sustainable debt and creditworthiness. The model is estimated by employing time series data for the core countries of the Euro-area. The computations show that the Euro-area has large external assets. Using time series methods, the sustainability of external debt (assets) is estimated for those core countries of the Euro-area. Those estimations show that the Euro will be a stable currency in the long-run.     

Monetary,fiscal, and structural drivers of inflation in Ethiopia: new empirical evidence from time series analysis

This study empirically investigates the drivers of inflation in Ethiopia using monthly data over the period July 1998 to September 2020. It explores short-run and long-run effects of domestic and external determinants of inflation—including demand-side, supply-side, and structural factors—using the cointegration and vector error-correction methodology. Four measures of inflation are considered: cereals, food, nonfood, and all-items Consummer Price Index (CPI) inflation. A key contribution to the existing literature is the investigation of the role of the fiscal sector in modeling inflation, a topic that has been neglected in the existing studies on inflation in Ethiopia. The empirical results show that disequilibria in the monetary sector, grains sector, and food markets have long-run effects on inflation. In the short run, inflation is driven by structural factors (notably, cereal output gaps and imported inflation) as well as demand-side factors (notably, money growth and public sector borrowing). The results hold when analysis is limited to the high growth period from 2005 onward, following the end of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program in the country. The evidence provides valuable insights in the context of ongoing macroeconomic policy reforms in Ethiopia.     

Do ideology movements and legal intervention matter: A synthetic control analysis of the Chongqing Model

Institutions have a fundamental influence on the economic performance of a regime. Among the various aspects of institutions, ideology and the legal system are two important ones. Chongqing Municipality, a province-level region in China, experienced such a combination with a unique leader from late 2007 to early 2012. This paper investigates, via the Synthetic Control Method, the economic performance of Chongqing in the last 13 years. In particular, it discusses the impact of the red ideology movements and legal intervention undertaken by Bo Xilai. The results reveal that although his economic policies promoted the Chongqing economy, the Maoist political policies advocated by Bo partially undermined its economic growth in the short run.     

Controllability and Persistence of Money Market Rates along the Yield Curve: Evidence from the Euro Area

Abstract. Controllability of longer‐term interest rates requires that the persistence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. the policy spreads) remains sufficiently low. This paper applies fractional integration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads of euro area money market rates along the yield curve. Independently from anticipated policy rate changes, there is strong evidence for all maturities that policy spreads exhibit long memory. We show that recent changes in the operational framework and the communication strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) have significantly decreased the persistence of euro area policy spreads and, thus, have enhanced the ECB's influence on longer‐term money market rates.     

Monetary Union and Pegging in the Presence of Labor Unions*

As the European Economic and Monetary Union grows, power over monetary policy is shifting away from the original founders. Previously, researchers have analyzed the impact of replacing an exchange‐rate peg with a monetary union in the presence of labor unions. In these studies, the authors have consistently concluded that unemployment in the country that originally controlled monetary policy will rise, although they cite very different reasons. In this paper, we present a more general model that reproduces the previous results in special cases and clarifies the relations across the results. In addition, the more general model shows that the results are reversed in certain conditions.     

Oil shocks and fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola: Assessing the role of asymmetries and institutions

The aim of this article is to examine procyclicality in Angola, assess whether it behaves asymmetrically over the oil cycle, and test the hypothesis that institutions and fiscal rules can moderate procyclicality. Received wisdom suggests that in resource‐rich economies, fiscal policy tends to be procyclical albeit improvements in the past decades due to institutional reforms. Similar evidence is available for oil‐rich economies; however, we know little about how procyclicality behaves over the oil cycle; that is, whether spending (and revenue) grows faster during oil‐market booms, than during downturns. Further, evidence on institutions and fiscal rules in oil‐exporting economies is still ambiguous. We bridge both gaps by examining fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola, one of the largest oil‐producers in Africa, and a country that has experienced an intense process of institutional reforms since 2002. Therefore, it is an ideal candidate for our study. We use data for the 2004–2014 period to estimate a threshold vector error correction model that extends vector autoregressive and vector correction methods used up to date. Our results indicate that revenue and spending are generally procyclical to oil shocks, that revenue is more procyclical during booms, and that institutional quality, net inflows, financial openness, and fiscal rules affect procyclicality.     

经济民主与社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义:基于生产方式视角的分析

长期以来,作为社会主义市场经济的政治经济学含义的主要载体,经济民主的作用并不明显。出现这一现象的原因有二:在理论上,学界关于经济民主的论述强调生产关系视角而忽视生产方式视角。这样的把握方式导致经济民主体系处于悬置的状态;在现实中,将美国型市场经济视为唯一的参照系导致具有后福特主义色彩的经济民主无法进入政策议程。本文认为,以生产方式视角下的经济民主为中心,有选择、有秩序地推进经济民主是当下的现实选择。     

The Adaptive Nature of the Neoliberal State and the State-led Neoliberalisation of Nature: Unpacking the Political Economy of Water in Lima,Peru

The neoliberalisation of water constitutes an emblematic illustration of the enduring encroachment of neoliberalism upon nature. Previous studies in Latin America have examined the transition from Keynesian water utilities to the neoliberal provisions of water services, but paid less attention to the adaptability of the state apparatus and the systematic adjustments required to sustain neoliberalising strategies. Addressing this gap in the literature, this paper examines two decades of change in the public water services of Lima, Peru, as one of the Latin American countries where neoliberal reforms have been more comprehensive and resilient. The analysis focuses on the water policies advanced by the national state and with the reconfiguration of the state apparatus as a result of extra-economic factors. The neoliberalisation of water may have improved the situation at the aggregate level, but inequalities, scarcities and vulnerabilities have been maintained and even reinforced. The achievements and failures of the neoliberalisation of water have ultimately depended on a range of politico-economic and socioecological interactions creatively mediated by the state apparatus. In the end, however, the neoliberal adjustments in the structure and operation of the state have replicated the double exploitation of nature and society that has long shaped Peruvian economic history.     

Gig Work and the Discourse of Autonomy: Fictitious Freedom in Japan’s Digital Economy

ABSTRACT

The introduction of ‘gig work’ has been accompanied by an official discourse which highlights the benefits for ‘gig workers’, especially as arises from the more autonomous nature of this particular type of employment. In contrast, this paper draws upon the cultural political economy approach to argue that the move towards gig work is more accurately conceptualised as an attempt to legitimate the further flexibilisation of labour markets within advanced industrial democracies, seeking to construct economic imaginaries that are best described as a form of ‘fictitious freedom’. In drawing on the cultural political economy approach, the paper explores the interaction between the structural, discursive and technological selectivities which have generated these outcomes. This is done through a discussion of the case of Japan, which is selected as a key case that highlights the tensions and pressures leading to the introduction of gig work in this way across the advanced industrial democracies. The article shows how gig work sees new digital technologies used in an attempt to increase productivity and thereby further growth, locking gig workers into low-skilled and low-paid super-fragmented tasks, whilst at the same time heralding the benefits that gig work can provide for a range of contemporary problems.