Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So,Why?

This paper uses long-run equilibrium relationship between consumption and different components of wealth to estimate the effect of changes in housing wealth and financial wealth on consumption. By exploiting this long-run property, it has been shown that a dollar increase in housing wealth increases consumption by seven cents, whereas, a corresponding dollar increase in financial wealth increases consumption by only three cents. This difference in the wealth effect arises because transitory shocks dominate variation in financial wealth, whereas permanent shocks account for most of the variation in housing wealth. This paper also shows that the relative importance of permanent component for housing wealth has witnessed an increase over the last thirty years. Therefore, housing wealth effect has also increased over time.     

Managerial optimism: New observations on the unifying theory

Managerial optimism theory is behavioral finance's greatest achievement. It explains two prominent features of corporate financial behavior – over‐investment and pecking‐order capital structure preferences – that otherwise require two different theories with mutually incompatible assumptions about managerial loyalties to shareholder‐value maximization. After reviewing the development of managerial optimism as a unifying theory, I use a simple change of measure to transform risk‐averse optimism to risk‐neutral probabilities that can be pessimistic or optimistic depending on wealth changes. This unexplored feature has implications for, among other things, pay for performance when managers are excessively optimistic.     

Digital finance and corporate financial fraud

Corporate financial fraud harms the interests of investors and affects the healthy development of the capital market. Understanding corporate financial fraud has important academic value and practical significance. Digital finance been rapidly developing over the past few years and scholars are investigating strategies for using digital finance as a tool to curb corporate financial fraud. This paper empirically examines the direct effect, intrinsic mechanism, and heterogeneous effect of digital finance on corporate financial fraud based on panel data of A-share listed corporations in China from 2011 to 2020. Results show that digital finance significantly inhibits corporate financial fraud. The breadth of coverage and depth of usage within digital finance show inhibitory effects on corporate financial fraud. This suggests that a combination of coverage and depth is needed to improve the success of digital finance on corporate financial fraud. The internal mechanisms suggest that digital finance inhibits corporate financial fraud by alleviating financing constraints, reducing corporate leverage, and decreasing agency costs. The heterogeneity analysis shows digital finance has a greater inhibitory effect for large-scale corporates, state-owned corporates, and corporates in areas with low degree of marketization. Our findings can provide reference for financial institutions, investors, analysts, and regulators to improve the quality of decision-making.     

Financial statement comparability and accounting fraud

We examine the association between financial statement comparability and the likelihood of accounting fraud. Prior research documents a negative association between the quality of a firm's reporting environment and accounting fraud. We build on this literature and show that poor financial statement comparability is associated with a greater likelihood of accounting fraud. We also find that accounting comparability declines over time as the year of fraud detection approaches and that the association between comparability and fraud becomes more negative over this time. In addition, we find that financial statement comparability improves after fraud detection, consistent with the notion that managers improve their financial reporting quality after fraud.     

Household Debt and Income Inequality, 1963–2003

I construct an economy with heterogeneous agents that mimics the time-series behavior of the earnings distribution in the United States from 1963 to 2003. Agents face aggregate and idiosyncratic shocks and accumulate real and financial assets. I estimate the shocks that drive the model using data on income inequality, aggregate income, and measures of financial liberalization. I show how the model economy can replicate two empirical facts: the trend and cyclical behavior of household debt and the diverging patterns in consumption and wealth inequality over time. While business cycle fluctuations can account for the short-run changes in household debt, its prolonged rise of the 1980s and the 1990s can be quantitatively explained only by the concurrent increase in income inequality.     

Foreign portfolio equity holdings and capital gains taxation

Using panel data from 23 developed countries over the 2001–2011 period and employing the Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond dynamic panel estimation technique, this paper shows that the source country capital gains tax has a negative and statistically significant impact on foreign portfolio equity holdings. On average, a 1 percentage point increase in capital gains tax rate leads to 0.018% decrease in foreign equity holdings. The negative relationship between the capital gains tax and foreign equity holdings is found to be robust to alternative measures of the source country capital gains tax, inclusion of the dividend imputation tax rate, foreign dividend tax withheld rate, dividend tax credit and other control variables (the source and host country financial wealth, trade, exchange rate volatility, foreign listing and institutional quality). We find that a 1% increase in financial wealth of the source (host) country leads to, on average, a 0.428% (0.427%) increase in foreign equity holdings. An improvement in institutional quality has a positive effect on foreign equity holdings but an increase in the exchange rate volatility has the opposite effect.     

Time to wealth goals in capital accumulation

This paper considers the problem of investment of capital in risky assets in a dynamic capital market in continuous time. The model controls risk, and in particular the risk associated with errors in the estimation of asset returns. The framework for investment risk is a geometric Brownian motion model for asset prices, with random rates of return. The information filtration process and the capital allocation decisions are considered separately. The filtration is based on a Bayesian model for asset prices, and an (empirical) Bayes estimator for current price dynamics is developed from the price history. Given the conditional price dynamics, investors allocate wealth to achieve their financial goals efficiently over time. The price updating and wealth reallocations occur when control limits on the wealth process are attained. A Bayesian fractional Kelly strategy is optimal at each rebalancing, assuming that the risky assets are jointly lognormal distributed. The strategy minimizes the expected time to the upper wealth limit while maintaining a high probability of reaching that goal before falling to a lower wealth limit. The fractional Kelly strategy is a blend of the log-optimal portfolio and cash and is equivalently represented by a negative power utility function, under the multivariate lognormal distribution assumption. By rebalancing when control limits are reached, the wealth goals approach provides greater control over downside risk and upside growth. The wealth goals approach with random rebalancing times is compared to the expected utility approach with fixed rebalancing times in an asset allocation problem involving stocks, bonds, and cash.     

Investment in financial literacy and saving decisions

We present an intertemporal consumption model of investment in financial literacy. Consumers benefit from such investment because financial literacy allows them to increase the returns on wealth. Since literacy depreciates over time and has a cost in terms of current consumption, the model delivers an optimal investment in literacy. Furthermore, literacy and wealth are determined jointly, and are positively correlated over the life-cycle. The model drives our empirical approach to the analysis of the effect of financial literacy on wealth and saving and indicates that the stock of financial literacy early in life is a valid instrument in the regression of wealth on financial literacy. Using microeconomic and aggregate data, we find strong support for the model’s predictions.     

Fraudulent financial reporting in China: Evidence from corporate renaming

Using a sample of listed Chinese companies during 2010–2019, we examine whether corporate renaming is associated with fraudulent financial reporting. We find that companies that change their corporate names without making underlying changes to business fundamentals are more likely to commit financial reporting fraud. The positive association between corporate renaming and financial reporting fraud is more pronounced for non-state-owned enterprises and companies with a lower ownership concentration. There is further evidence that corporate renaming is more likely to be associated with disclosure-related fraud (e.g., failure to disclose or delayed disclosure) and that the likelihood of fraudulent behavior increases with the frequency of corporate renaming. Overall, the findings of this study provide evidence of a new red flag for regulators and investors investigating financial fraud. This study is timely and has policy implications for market regulators hoping to establish and improve emerging capital markets in which the information environment is generally considered weak and opaque.     

Rationalization of financial statement fraud in government: An Austrian perspective

This paper develops a conceptual framework that explains how existing opportunities and incentives for committing financial statement fraud in government translate into the rationalization of such fraud. The analytical approach is theoretical. The rationalization of financial statement fraud is analyzed through the lenses of a theory of entrepreneurship rooted in Austrian economics. Entrepreneurship, while generally seen as a positive force for economic productivity, is viewed as a source of deception. The framework illustrates that financial statement fraud has its origins in political, rather than economic incentives, and that it is rationalized by elected rather than non-elected officials. Due to a lower proportion of creditors and investors with vested interests in the framework, it is also concluded that the detection process of financial statement fraud in government tend to exhibit less “alertness” than in private sector contexts. Specific techniques associated with financial statement fraud therefore tend to persist over relatively long periods of time.     

A Wealth Tax on the Rich to Bring Down Public Debt? Revenue and Distributional Effects of a Capital Levy in Germany

The idea of higher wealth taxes to finance the mounting public debt in the wake of the financial crisis is gaining ground in several OECD countries. We evaluate the revenue and distributional effects of a one‐time capital levy on personal net wealth that is currently on the political agenda in Germany. We use survey data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel (SOEP) and estimate the net wealth distribution at the very top, based on publicly‐available information about very rich Germans. Since net wealth is strongly concentrated, the capital levy could raise substantial revenue, even if relatively high personal allowances are granted. We also analyse the compliance and administrative costs of the capital levy.     

EVA IN THE E&P INDUSTRY: THE CASE OF NUEVO ENERGY

This article presents a case study illustrating some aspects of the new business model discussed in the roundtable above. Continuing a major theme in the roundtable, the authors begin by arguing that the long‐run failure of the E&P industry to create shareholder wealth stems to a large degree from weak or distorted incentives held out to the top executives and managers of most large, publicly traded companies. This article traces the incentive problem to the lack of an effective wealth creation metric to guide the financial management process. Although the industry employs a variety of accounting‐based performance measures, none is a reliable measure of wealth creation. In place of traditional financial metrics such as earnings, annual cash flow, and return on capital, this article recommends a performance evaluation and incentive compensation system that is tied to the use of a “reserve‐adjusted” EVA measure—one that exhibits a strong statistical correlation with changes in shareholder wealth in the E&P business. The greater explanatory power of this new measure reflects the reality that changes in the value of reserves in the ground can greatly outweigh changes in annual earnings or cash flows. As the focal point of a compensation plan, EVA has advantages over stock options in that it can be calculated at various levels in the organization, even at the level of a single well, whereas stock prices only exist for the company as a whole. For this reason, an EVA incentive system permits a clearer “line of sight” between pay packages and the performance of the part of the business for which managers are directly accountable. Perhaps even more important, EVA can be calculated (using an “internal hedging” mechanism) in a way that removes the impact of changes in oil prices on the incentive outcome. And, as demonstrated in the case study of Nuevo Energy, such internal hedging allows companies to give their employees a much greater share of wealth created with far less cost than by simply granting stock or stock options.     

The Effectiveness of White‐Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror

This paper analyzes the impact of changes in regulatory priorities and resource allocation on criminal enforcement of white‐collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI's priorities and allocation of investigative resources, as well as variation in the Muslim population in the United States, I examine whether prioritization of counterterrorism investigations after 9/11 is associated with weaker enforcement of laws targeting white‐collar crime. I then use a difference‐in‐differences estimation to study the magnitude of any increase in white‐collar crime resulting from reduced oversight. I find a significantly greater reduction in white‐collar criminal cases referred by FBI field offices that shifted more of their investigative focus away from white‐collar crime to counterterrorism. Further, geographic areas in the jurisdictions of FBI field offices with greater shifts in attention from white‐collar crime to counterterrorism experienced greater increases in wire fraud, illegal insider‐trading activities, and fraud within financial institutions.     

CAUSALITY TESTS OF THE REAL STOCK RETURN-REAL ACTIVITY HYPOTHESIS

Recent studies of the relation between real stock returns and real activity do not examine cause and effect. In this study I use Granger causality tests to examine such a relation. Results support three possibilities. First, changes in stock returns are synonymous with changes in wealth, which influence future demand for consumption and investment goods. Second, an increase in current real activity increases demands on existing capital stock, which ultimately induces future increased capital investment. The stock market anticipates these events. Third, stock returns Granger-cause a leading economic indicator, the interest rate spread between commercial paper and Treasury bills.     

CHANGES IN THE STOCK PRICE REACTION OF SMALL FIRMS TO COMMON INFORMATION

We hypothesize that changes in the technological and regulatory environment result in a more rapid response to marketwide information by small firms. We find that the correlations between small-firm returns and lagged large-firm returns decline over time, which suggests an increase in the efficiency of capital markets. Similar lead-lag patterns are found in the returns of portfolios sorted by dollar trading volume. The price response of low-volume stocks improves over time in much the same way as that of small-capitalization stocks.     

基于案例推理的财务报告舞弊识别研究

上市公司财务报告舞弊对资本市场建设和投资者利益保护掣肘已久。以2003~2012年我国沪深 A 股财务报告舞弊公司及其配对公司为样本,依据“舞弊钻石”理论和现有文献提取舞弊识别指标,基于案例推理思想构建财务报告舞弊识别模型。研究发现,较之于非舞弊公司,舞弊公司通常面临更大的盈利压力和偿债压力,成长能力更弱,事务所变更现象更为普遍,被出具非标准审计意见的概率更高。基于仿兰氏距离的案例推理模型对测试集样本的识别总正确率为66.7%。     

The light and dark side of TARP

This paper empirically investigates the impact of the first announcement of TARP, the announcement of revised TARP, respective capital infusions under TARP–CPP and capital repayments on changes in shareholder value and the risk exposure of supported US banks. Our analysis reveals a light and a dark side of TARP. While announcements as well as capital repayments may provoke positive wealth effects and a decrease in bank risk, equity capital injections to banks are observed to be a severe impediment to restore market confidence and financial stability. Furthermore, while TARP announcements and capital injections may increase systemic risk, no significant effect on systemic risk is found for capital repayments.     

Industry informational interactions and corporate fraud

We examine three information channels through which product market interactions in an industry can affect firms' incentives to misreport financial information to investors. We find that lower product market sensitivity to individual firms' information and greater use of relative performance evaluation encourage the commission of financial fraud. Industry structures that give rise to less collection of information about individual firms decrease the probability of fraud detection and increase the probability of fraud commission. We also examine dynamic effects of fraud. Our results suggest that, in fragmented industries, fraud can amplify cyclical fluctuations in the real economy.     

Financial scandals: a historical overview

I examine the incidence of fraud from c.1720 to 2009 and relate it to the occurrence of significant financial scandals. Focusing on the UK, and US prior to Enron, and using a detailed dataset of significant events and news content, underpinned by examination of specific watershed scandals, the paper highlights the regulatory response to scandals and the implications for accounting and financial reporting. The evidence reveals the incidence of fraud and financial scandal to be historically contingent and skewed towards certain sectors, particularly banking and finance, facilitated by complex group structures and international capital mobility, and mediated by managerial incentives and ownership concentration. Financial reporting and auditing can mitigate fraud opportunities in all sectors and businesses without complex group structures, and the accounting profession achieved some success in this respect up to the mid-1970s. Since then, the profession has been increasingly challenged by, and to some degree implicated in, the development of interconnected and international business networks, which, combined with wider financial deregulation, has led to a resurgence of fraud and financial scandal not previously experienced since the mid-nineteenth century.     

Insurance-adjusted valuation,decision making,and capital return

Although the insurance industry has a significant economic role, few theoretical studies link insurance with the overlapping generations economy. This study suggests a new overlapping generations model that includes insurance in the agents' economic decisions under the uncertainty of financial losses. In this insurance model, we derive risk-averse workers' optimal insurance purchases and consumption based on the insurance-adjusted valuations, which are the present value of the income streams minus insurance premiums paid in the future. The theoretical equilibrium model predicts capital returns, wealth, labor supply, etc. Our findings show that higher workforce and technological progress increase private insurance demand and reduce the capital-output ratio, and higher losses as a fraction of output increase social insurance demand and reduce the capital-output ratio via numerical comparative statics.