能力效应与金融市场参与:基于家庭微观调查数据的分析

投资者主观能力感受对居民家庭金融市场参与有显著影响。基于中国居民家庭微观调查数据,根据家庭户主对市场了解程度的自我评价以及能力水平感受构建指标,发现居民家庭主观能力感受对居民家庭市场参与行为具有显著的正向影响。同时研究也发现教育程度、家庭收入和健康状况等均会显著影响居民家庭的主观能力感受。     

社会互动对家庭商业保险参与的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证分析

本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,探讨了社会互动对家庭商业保险购买行为的影响。研究发现:社会互动显著提高了家庭商业保险参与的可能性与参与程度,并且在控制了内生性之后,这种促进作用依然显著;同时本文通过金融知识和商业保险信任度等变量验证了社会互动影响家庭商业保险参与行为的两种作用渠道;异质性分析表明,社会互动对于东部和中部地区、中等学历、高收入水平、低参与率社区中家庭的促进作用更大。本文的研究为我国商业保险市场的发展提供了一个新的社会特征视角,重视社会互动的促进作用,加强保险业诚信建设,以此推动我国商业保险业健康快速发展。     

Labor income dynamics at business-cycle frequencies: Implications for portfolio choice

Young agents with low wealth-income ratios counter factually hold more stock than young, rich agents and old agents using the standard portfolio choice model with i.i.d. stock returns and labor income. This paper matches the countercyclical volatility and procyclical mean of U.S. labor income and finds that, consistent with U.S. data, young, poor agents now hold less stock than both young, rich agents and old agents, and no stock a large fraction of the time. Our results suggest that the predictability of labor income growth at a business-cycle frequency, particularly the countercyclical variation in volatility, plays an important role in a young agent's decision making about her portfolio's stock holding.     

关系型借贷视角下购房融资方式与家庭创业行为——基于2017年中国家庭金融调查的实证研究

本文利用2017年中国家庭金融调查数据深入考察购房融资方式对家庭创业行为的影响。研究结果显示,相较于民间借贷购房的家庭,按揭贷款购房的家庭参与创业活动的可能性更高,且更倾向于主动创业。进一步机制分析发现,相较于民间借贷购房,按揭贷款购房能够降低家庭的流动性约束,缓解家庭的资金压力,从而促进创业。同时,按揭贷款购房能使家庭获得充足的贷款额度与较长的贷款期限,进而有助于家庭创业。而且在偿还按揭贷款的过程中,家庭能与银行建立长期良好的信贷关系,从而有助于提高家庭获得正规信贷的可能性,促进家庭创业。为了积极推进创业创新的战略部署,应进一步健全银行信贷体系,发展和完善住房金融制度,从而有利于缓解小微企业融资难、融资贵的问题,释放和激发家庭创业活力。     

住房公积金与家庭风险金融资产投资——基于2013年CHFS的实证研究

作为我国重要的住房保障制度,住房公积金对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响鲜有研究。本文基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,采用probit和tobit模型,检验住房公积金对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响。实证结果表明,住房公积金能显著提高有房家庭风险金融资产投资的可能性和投资比重,但是对无房家庭的风险金融资产投资则无显著影响。研究其影响机制发现,住房公积金会提高家庭可支配收入、增加户主风险偏好,从而促进家庭风险金融资产投资。本文研究结论对完善住房公积金制度、引导居民家庭合理投资风险金融资产和实现多渠道增加居民财产性收入有借鉴意义。     

Heterogeneous Background Risks and Portfolio Choice: Evidence from Micro‐level Data

We construct a set of household‐level background risk variables to capture the covariance structure of three nonfinancial assets and two financial assets. These risks are in general statistically significant and economically important for a household's stock market participation and stockholdings. A one‐standard‐deviation increase in background risks reduces the participation probability by 11% and the stockholdings‐to‐wealth ratio by 4%. The volatilities of labor income, housing value, and business income reduce a household's participation and stockholdings. A household with labor income highly correlated with stock (bond) returns is less (more) likely to invest in stock.     

集体主义与居民家庭消费——来自中国的经验发现

采用详实的微观调查数据,本文实证分析了集体主义对我国居民家庭消费的影响。基于社会网络、社会融入、情感表达和自我控制等四个方面,本文进一步构造了综合集体主义观念,经过稳健性检验和内生性讨论的回归结果显示,综合集体主义观念显著提高了居民家庭消费水平。其中,稳定的社会网络、社会融入和情感表达显著促进了居民家庭消费,而自我控制显著抑制了居民家庭消费。分消费类型看,综合集体主义观念及稳定的社会网络显著提高了不同类型的家庭消费。进一步的研究显示,在互联网普及率更高的地区,集体主义对居民家庭消费的正向促进作用更小。本文的政策涵义在于,在促进居民消费的过程中,相关部门应重视集体主义文化对居民消费的促进作用及其因区域信息化水平不同而产生的差异,以提高政策的精准程度。     

The impact of corporate governance on auditor choice: Evidence from China

As the largest and fastest growing emerging market, China is becoming more and more important to investors throughout the world. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of firms’ auditor choice in China in respect of their corporate governance mechanism. Normally firms have to take a trade-off in their auditor choice decisions, i.e., to hire high-quality auditors to signal effective audit monitoring and good corporate governance to lower their capital raising costs, or to select low-quality auditors with less effective audit monitoring in order to reap private benefits derived from weak corporate governance and less-transparent disclosure (the opaqueness gains). We develop a logit regression model to test the impact of firms’ internal corporate governance mechanism on auditor choice decisions made by IPO firms getting listed during a bear market period of 2001–2004 in China. Three variables are used to proxy for firms’ internal corporate governance mechanism, i.e., the ownership concentration, the size of the supervisory board (SB), and the duality of CEO and chairman of board of directors (BoDs). We classify all auditors in China into large auditors (Top 10) and others (non-Top 10), assuming the large auditors can provide higher quality audit services. The empirical results show that firms with larger controlling shareholders, with smaller size of SB, or in which CEO and BoDs chairman are the same person, are less likely to hire a Top 10 (high-quality) auditor. This suggests that when benefits from lowering capital raising costs are trivial, firms with weaker internal corporate governance mechanism are inclined to choose a low-quality auditor so as to capture and sustain their opaqueness gains. On the other hand, with improvement of corporate governance, firms should be more likely to appoint high-quality auditors.     

社会养老保险与我国居民家庭风险金融资产投资——来自中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)的证据

本文基于2011年中国家庭金融调查数据,考察了社会养老保险对家庭风险金融资产投资的影响。研究发现:拥有社会养老保险会显著提高家庭持有风险金融资产的可能性和风险金融资产比重,边际效应分别达到25%和22%左右。这一结果在控制了家庭的经济水平、人口统计学特征和主观投资风险偏好态度等因素后依旧稳健,一个解释是社会养老保险能有效地降低未来的不确定性。我们进一步分城镇家庭和农村家庭的子样本研究发现,养老保险对家庭风险资产投资的影响在农村很小且统计不显著,这说明新型农村养老保险的养老保障水平和拉动金融消费的作用仍有待提高。     

移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查的微观证据

本文运用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,基于鲍莫尔—托宾模型研究了移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响。为了克服移动支付的内生性,本文选取工具变量,用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了估计。研究发现,相较于没有移动支付的家庭,拥有移动支付的家庭现金在金融资产的占比下降25%,对其他层次的货币需求也有显著的负向影响,表明移动支付的使用减少了家庭不同层次的货币需求。机制分析表明,交易成本变化是导致移动支付影响现金需求的重要渠道。进一步,本文用分位数回归发现,移动支付对预防性货币需求的影响大于交易性货币需求。移动支付对货币需求的影响在不同的年龄水平、教育水平、城乡地区、东中西部地区和不同城市之间也存在显著差异。本文的研究为理解中国家庭货币需求的变化提供了新的证据,可为相关政策的制定提供参考。     

The Information Transmission Effect and Asset Prices: Evidence from the China B-Share Discount

ABSTRACT

We construct a model based on market microstructure and examine the information transmission effect of equity prices in A-share and B-share markets in China. The data on foreign share discounts raise a question: How are asset prices determined if uninformed foreign traders obtain signals by observing public information? Our investigation on the measure of the information transmission effect presents a substantial segment of the cross-sectional variation in B-share discounts and finds that the information transmission effect plays a critical role in explaining how foreign share discounts become more contractive.     

数字金融对农村金融需求的异质性影响——来自中国家庭金融调查与北京大学数字普惠金融指数的证据

本文基于中国家庭金融调查和北京大学数字普惠金融指数,采用加入工具变量的面板数据回归,研究了数字金融对不同类别农村正规金融需求的异质性影响。结果表明:数字金融整体水平的提升一方面减少了农村生产性正规信贷需求概率,其中拥有智能手机的群体受影响更明显,另一方面也增加了农村消费性正规信贷需求概率,其中教育水平较高、有网购习惯的群体需求被激发较多,反映出数字金融提升效率、促进消费的多维度效应。本文首次通过实证方法研究了数字金融对农村金融需求的影响,为未来的农村金融政策提供了有益参考。     

Risk-based portfolio strategy in emerging stock markets: economic significance from Brazil,Russia, India and China

The purpose of this paper is to examine the conditional volatility and correlation predictability of four emerging stock markets, and address the issue whether investors could exploit this predictability to earn excess returns from the minimum variance portfolio of index component stocks. Inevitably, transaction cost affects the conclusive results. Nevertheless, economic gain exceeding a conservatively high transaction cost could be derived from a number of conditional volatility and correlation models. One dominant model, the shrinkage model, outperforms the market across the countries, cost structures and performance measures. We also document the superiority of averaging methodologies. However, semiparametric modelling falls in a grey area of profitability – sometimes attractive whilst sometimes not attractive.     

Regional Unemployment and the Restructuring of Distressed State-owned Enterprises: Evidence from China

Abstract:

Using Chinese listed companies as the sample, we investigate the effects and corresponding consequences of regional unemployment rates on the restructuring behavior of distressed state-owned enterprises (SOEs). We find that layoffs and asset downsizing of local SOEs will be limited greatly when the unemployment rates of the areas where SOEs are located are high, even though these firms are already in distress. Additional evidence shows that this kind of limitation causes these firms to show a long-term decline in performance. The CEOs of these firms, however, are not easily dismissed after the distress. These results provide empirical support for the “grabbing hand“ theory.     

State ownership, the institutional environment, and auditor choice: Evidence from China

This paper finds that compared with non-state-owned firms, Chinese state-owned enterprises controlled by province, city, and county governments (local SOEs) are more likely to hire small auditors within the same region (small local auditors). In regions with less developed institutions, SOEs controlled by central government (central SOEs) also have such a tendency. However, the tendency of local and central SOEs to hire small local auditors is attenuated as the institutions develop. This auditor choice pattern is likely to be explained by SOEs’ lack of demand for large or non-local auditors, small local auditors’ superior local knowledge, and SOEs’ collusion incentives.     

Voluntary Contributions to Personal Pension Plans: Evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

In this paper, we use data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the years 1992 to 1998 to study the determinants of saving in the form of voluntary contributions to personal pension plans (PPPs). We first estimate a probit model with selection for the probability of making these voluntary contributions. We then estimate a random‐effects tobit regression for the amounts contributed and compare the results with those of a similar regression for conventional saving. Our findings suggest that voluntary contributions to PPPs are made essentially for retirement purposes, whereas conventional saving is undertaken for precautionary motives. The former type of saving is thus unlikely to offset the latter completely.     

Risk Awareness of Interpersonal Trust and Entrepreneurship in China: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper aims to build a theoretical framework for the influence of risk awareness of interpersonal trust (RAIT) on entrepreneurship, and explores the influence of RAIT on entrepreneurship with the micro survey data from the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) 2010–2013. The study found that, individuals with higher level of RAIT, their probability of starting new business will increase significantly, and with every increase of RAIT level, the probability of business venturing increase almost 4.0%. No mediation effects of information screening and cooperative mechanism are found in the relationship between RAIT and entrepreneurship. Moreover, during the venturing process, risks accompanying interpersonal trust cannot be reduced by social input; the reduction occurs only in eastern China where the economic system and the industrial development standards are more comprehensive and mature. This paper contributes to the literatures in the following two areas: it provides new evidence on how to deal with risks in the entrepreneurship process that accompanying interpersonal trust; meanwhile, it provides an explanatory mechanism on how the risk awareness affects business venturing.     

Financial market spillovers and macroeconomic shocks: Evidence from China

With the development of China’s financial reform, Chinese financial markets have become closely linked. The cross-market spillover effect of financial risks is at the core of systemic risks. This paper’s marginal contributions include (1) a new method is proposed based on structure learning for Bayesian networks to measure the multilateral spillover effect of a multiasset financial system. Additionally, this paper discusses (2) the macroeconomic mechanism behind the linkage of financial markets. The empirical results show that (1) the linkages between financial markets significantly exist, (2) uncertainty and negative macroeconomic shocks enhance the spillover effect in financial markets, and (3) the impact of negative macroeconomic shocks on the spillover effect of the financial market is weakened at the high economic growth stage.     

家庭人口结构与家庭商业人身保险需求——基于中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据的实证研究

本文使用2013年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,从微观层面探讨家庭人口结构对家庭人身保险需求的影响。Probit和Tobit实证结果显示,家庭老年人口占比与家庭人身保险需求负相关,这意味着,人口老龄化对人身保险产品的需求会起到抑制作用。家庭少儿人口占比与家庭人身保险需求则呈正相关,这显示少儿人口的增加会推动人身保险市场的发展。家庭就业者占比对家庭人身保险需求有抑制作用。同时,缩小的家庭规模有助于增加对人身保险产品的需求。我们的研究对深刻理解当下中国面临的人口老龄化问题及计划生育政策有一定的参考价值。     

Sell in May and Go Away: Evidence from China

Using the Chinese stock market data from 1997 to 2013, this paper examines the “Sell in May and Go Away” puzzle first identified by Bouman and Jacobsen (2002). We find strong existence of the Sell in May effect, robust to different regression assumptions, industries, and after controlling for the January or February effect. However, part of the puzzle is subsumed by the seasonal affective disorder effect. We then construct a trading strategy based on this puzzle, and find that it outperforms the buy-and-hold strategy and could resist the market downside risk during large recession periods.