Does economic policy uncertainty drive nonlinear risk spillover in the commodity futures market?

We propose the rolling tail-event driven network technique (RTENET) to measure the dynamic nonlinear tail risk spillover of 20 US commodity futures. In addition, we investigate the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on risk spillover based on quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR). We find that the risk spillover effect increases sharply and that the market is tightly connected when EPU is at a high level. Crude oil, silver and corn, the three greatest risk transmitters in the system, need more attention. More importantly, the effect of EPU on the risk spillover of the commodity futures market is asymmetric and heterogeneous. When the risk spillover falls within extremely high quantiles, a significant positive effect of EPU is observed. In addition, grain and soft crops are more sensitive to EPU. Our findings provide a reference for policy-makers and investors to manage commodity futures markets in different uncertainty periods.     

Does economic policy uncertainty raise corporate precautionary cash holdings? Evidence from China

Using China as the research setting, this paper investigates the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical results show a U-shaped relation between economic policy uncertainty and corporate precautionary cash holdings. Empirical analysis, in terms of ownership structure, firm size, corporate competitiveness and geographical location, further shows that (i) the effects for economic policy uncertainty in both state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises are significant, but the effect is stronger for state-owned enterprises; (ii) such significant effect is also found more strongly in small and medium-sized enterprises and highly competitive enterprises; and (iii) the effects for eastern, central and western China are all statistically significant, but the effect is strongest for eastern China.     

Does economic policy uncertainty drive the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies? The role of the COVID-19 pandemic

The paper examines the dynamic spillover among traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic and investigates whether economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts this spillover. Based on the TVP-VAR approach, we find evidence of spillover effects among currencies, which increased widely during the pandemic. In addition, results suggest that almost all cryptocurrencies remain as “safe-haven” tools against market uncertainty during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, comparative analysis shows that the total connectedness for cryptocurrencies is lower than for traditional currencies during the crisis. Further analysis using quantile regression suggests that EPU exerts an impact on the total and the net spillovers with different degrees across currencies and this impact is affected by the health crisis. Our findings have important policy implications for policymakers, investors, and international traders.     

How do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk drive Bitcoin volatility?

We investigate how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risks (GPR) impact Bitcoin volatility with respect to factors related to type and nationality of uncertainty, investigated period, relationship horizon and extreme conditions. Applying ARDL model and quantile regression for monthly data from August 2010 to September 2021, we reveal that June 2014 corresponds to a key date that marks a reversal in the investigated relationship. Furthermore, we show that the relationship between uncertainty and bitcoin volatility changes according to different factors. US uncertainty has short run effects on Bitcoin volatility, while China’s uncertainty has rather long run effects. Moreover, Bitcoin volatility responds in the same manner to US EPU and GPR, while, it responds differently to China's EPU and GPR. In extreme quantiles, we find that Bitcoin hedges against US EPU and GPR. Further, Bitcoin hedges against either individual or joint effects of US uncertainty, but not both.     

Does managerial ownership influence corporate social responsibility (CSR)? The role of economic policy uncertainty

To explore the drivers of corporate social responsibility (CSR), we investigate how managerial ownership influences CSR in the presence of economic policy uncertainty. Our results demonstrate that, when facing more economic policy uncertainty (EPU), firms with larger managerial ownership invest significantly more in CSR. This is in agreement with the risk mitigation hypothesis, where CSR offers insurance‐like protection against adverse events. When economic policy uncertainty is not considered, however, we find that managers with higher ownership stakes invest significantly less in CSR, suggesting that CSR is driven by the agency conflict. As managers own more equity, they are subject to greater costs of CSR. Additional analyses confirm the results, including dynamic GMM, propensity score matching and instrumental‐variable analysis.     

Does economic policy uncertainty affect cryptocurrency markets? Evidence from Twitter-based uncertainty measures

Using daily data from August 9, 2015, to July 7, 2020, this study examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the returns of four cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. To this end, two new measures of EPU (Twitter-based economic uncertainty and Twitter-based market uncertainty) are considered. A Granger causality test using the recursive evolving window approach shows a significant causality between the Twitter-based EPU measures and the BTC/USD exchange rate from October 2016 to July 2017. Moreover, a significant causality was noted from the EPU measures to the ETH/USD exchange rate from June 2019 to February 2020 and from the EPU measures to the XRP/USD exchange rate from January 2020 to February 2020. The Twitter-based EPU measures primarily positively affect the returns of the related cryptocurrencies during these periods. These results are robust to different measures of Twitter-based EPU and different econometric techniques. Potential implications, including the COVID-19 era, are also discussed.     

How does economic policy uncertainty affect the bitcoin market?

This paper examines how economic policy uncertainty (EPU) impacts the Bitcoin (BTC) markets denominated in local currencies. We take BTC against British Pound (GBP) and the United States dollar (USD) as examples and construct the value-weighted BTC/GBP and BTC/USD composite indices. Our results show that the returns around the highest EPU days are significantly greater than those around the lowest EPU days. Further, the United States (US) EPU increases the volatility and trading volume of BTC after EPU spike days, whereas the United Kingdom (UK) EPU does not show such trends. Moreover, we observe a spillover effect for the US EPU to the UK BTC market. We further construct the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-GARCH model to test the dynamic correlation between EPU and BTC. Our results show that the effect of the US EPU on BTC/USD is greater than the effect of the UK EPU on BTC/GBP. Our empirical findings may provide insights for regulators to intervene in speculations in cryptocurrency markets effectively.     

Does economic policy uncertainty matter for financial reporting quality? Evidence from the United States

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We examine the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the financial reporting quality of US firms over 1999–2015. We use accruals-based...     

Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?

We assess whether the long-run volatilities of Bitcoin, global equities, commodities, and bonds are affected by global economic policy uncertainty. Empirical results provide evidence supporting this hypothesis, except in the case of bonds. For Bitcoin investors, the results imply the ability to use information about the state of global economic uncertainty to enhance the predictions of Bitcoin volatility. We further examine whether the correlation between Bitcoin and global equities, commodities, and bonds are affected by global economic policy uncertainty. Empirical results reveal that global economic policy uncertainty has a negative significant impact on the Bitcoin-bonds correlation and a positive impact on both Bitcoin-equities and Bitcoin-commodities correlations, suggesting the possibility of Bitcoin acting as a hedge under specific economic uncertainty conditions. Interestingly, the hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin for both global equities and global bonds enhances slightly after considering the level of global economic policy uncertainty. Such a weak effect of the state of global economic uncertainty on the hedging ability of Bitcoin implies that investors cannot substantially enhance the hedging performance of Bitcoin under different economic uncertainty conditions.     

Does external uncertainty matter in corporate sustainability performance?

Motivated by the prevalence of corporate sustainability and the rise of uncertainty at the national level, we investigate the impact of three sources of uncertainty; namely, economic policy, climate change, and political instability, on firms' sustainability performance. Using a sample of 6804 firms from 72 countries spanning 15 years, our study revealed that uncertainty due to climate change, economic policy, and political instability negatively affects firms' sustainability performance. This finding is in line with the real options theory that uncertainty in an external environment discourages firms' long-term investment (e.g. investment in corporate sustainability). In addition, the results show that the option for delay in sustainability investment moderated the relation between uncertainty at the national level and firms' sustainability performance. Firms with better sustainability performance had higher firm value when facing uncertainty. Interestingly, firms with higher profitability performed better in sustainability when facing uncertainty at the national level.     

Can local policy uncertainty curtail corporate speculation on financial assets?

Using a hand-collected data set of city-level local official's turnover in China, we find that the average financial investments of listed non-financial firms decrease significantly in the spike of local political uncertainty, i.e., when upon the turnover of city head occurs. The decrease in financial investment still occurs upon the predicted timing of city heads' turnover. The effect is more prominent for firms with high financial distress risk and weaker corporate governance, i.e., those with higher speculative motives. Overall, this paper reveals that local political uncertainty discourages firms' speculative motives of investing in financial securities.     

Does geopolitical uncertainty affect corporate financing? Evidence from MIDAS regression

This paper investigates the effect of geopolitical uncertainty on (market) leverage ratio, debt maturity, and choice of debt source. Using a new monthly index of geopolitical uncertainty and annual data for corporate financing variables, we find that under geopolitical uncertainty firms tend to reduce debt and increase market leverage. We argue that this increase is driven by asymmetrical reductions in the numerator (total debt) and the denominator (total debt and equity) of the leverage ratio. Under geopolitical uncertainty, firms tend to shorten their debt maturity structure and—especially those firms with lower credit quality—to substitute bank debt for public debt.     

Does corporate social responsibility affect the cost of capital?

We examine the effect of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on the cost of equity capital for a large sample of US firms. Using several approaches to estimate firms’ ex ante cost of equity, we find that firms with better CSR scores exhibit cheaper equity financing. In particular, our findings suggest that investment in improving responsible employee relations, environmental policies, and product strategies contributes substantially to reducing firms’ cost of equity. Our results also show that participation in two “sin” industries, namely, tobacco and nuclear power, increases firms’ cost of equity. These findings support arguments in the literature that firms with socially responsible practices have higher valuation and lower risk.     

Does geography matter? Firm location and corporate payout policy

We investigate the impact of geography on agency costs and firm dividend policies. We argue that remote firm location increases the cost of shareholder oversight of managerial investment decisions. We hypothesize that remotely located firms facing free cash flow problems precommit to higher dividends to mitigate agency conflicts. We find that remotely located firms pay higher dividends. As expected, the effect of geography on dividends is most pronounced for firms with severe free cash flow problems. Further, remotely located firms rely more on regular dividends instead of special dividends or share repurchases and decrease dividends less often.     

Does the Achilles heel of guarantee networks drive financial distress?

To explore characteristics of guarantee networks that drive financial distress, we use a dataset comprising 20,467 firm-year observations from Chinese companies listed on the Shanghai and the Shenzhen Stock Exchanges to construct networks from 85,229 guarantee relationships. We show that guarantee networks have a negative effect on company financial distress, revealed by cash holdings and long-term liabilities. Larger networks, those with an Achilles heel, and companies with high closeness centrality exacerbate this effect, and companies in a stronger financial position suffer greater negative impacts. Guarantee networks may also exert their negative impact by acting as a channel for shareholder tunneling.     

The taxman cometh: Does tax uncertainty affect corporate cash holdings?

We examine whether firms hold more cash in the face of tax uncertainty. Because of gray areas in the tax law and aggressive tax avoidance, the total amount of tax that a firm will pay is uncertain at the time it files its returns. The tax authorities can challenge and disallow the firm’s tax positions, demanding additional cash tax payments. We hypothesize that firms facing greater tax uncertainty hold cash to satisfy these potential future demands. We find that both domestic firms and multinational firms hold larger cash balances when subject to greater tax uncertainty. In terms of economic significance, we find that the effect of tax uncertainty on cash holdings is comparable to that of repatriation taxes. Our evidence adds to knowledge about the real effects of tax avoidance and provides a tax-based precautionary explanation for why there is such wide variation in cash holdings across firms.     

Does corporate control determine the cross-listing location?

This paper explains the choice of the cross-listing location with particular emphasis on the level of investor protection provided by the host market. We find that firms with concentrated control, with a higher level of risk and those with more pronounced financing needs cross-list on a market with better investor protection. We also find support for the bonding hypothesis as firms from markets with weak shareholder protection tend to cross-list on markets with significantly higher shareholder protection.     

Does economic policy uncertainty affect cross-border M&As? —— A data analysis based on Chinese multinational enterprises

This paper analyzes the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) of home and host countries on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) using EPU indexes and the amount and quantity of China's cross-border M&As in 21 countries from 2001 to 2017. First, we find that uncertainty in the economic policy of the home country drives cross-border M&As, uncertainty in the host country's economic policy significantly inhibits cross-border M&As, and when the economy is in a pro-cyclical period, alleviates the influence of the host country's economic policy uncertainty on M&As. Second, the impact of the host country's economic policy uncertainty on cross-border M&As differs before and after the financial crisis. The host country's economic policy uncertainty is positively correlated with cross-border M&As before the crisis and significantly negatively correlated with it after the crisis. Third, the impact of economic policy uncertainty in the home and host countries on cross-border M&as is significant in developed countries but not significant in developing countries finally, differences in bilateral uncertainty and bilateral market growth are significantly positively correlated with the scale of M&A     

Does capital market drive corporate investment efficiency? Evidence from equity lending supply

The increased equity lending supply (ELS) in the equity loan market, available for short sellers to borrow, exposes a firm to greater short selling threats. Considering short sellers' strong incentives to uncover firm-specific information and monitor managers, we hypothesize that short selling threats, proxied by ELS, enhance corporate investment efficiency. We find that ELS significantly reduces managerial tendencies to underinvest (overinvest) especially for firms prone to underinvest (overinvest). The effect of ELS on investment efficiency is stronger for firms with higher information asymmetry and weaker corporate governance, confirming short sellers' role in mitigating information and agency costs. However, short selling risk weakens the effect of ELS. Our evidence is robust to endogeneity checks and suggests that corporate investment can be driven by a particular capital market condition: the amount of lendable shares in the equity loan market.     

Do corporate press releases drive media coverage?

We examine the role of voluntary corporate press releases about firms' financial performance as a stimulus for financial media coverage. We find that there is a spike of media articles on the same day and one trading day following firms' press releases. We provide evidence that managers compete for media attention and can use voluntary press releases to increase their firms' media coverage; a firm's issuance of press releases attracts more media articles about the firm leading to greater abnormal returns and trading volumes. Our results are robust to controlling for firm characteristics, different model specifications as well as regular earnings announcements, which have been the focus of prior literature. We also show that our inferences are not sensitive to managers' duty to disclose material information to investors. Collectively, our findings suggest that media coverage decisions can be influenced by a firm.