Air carrier's liability for the safety of passengers during COVID-19 pandemic

The paper aims to determine the situations when the air carrier is liable for the transmission of COVID-19 in the course of air transport. It must be emphasized here that the carrier's liability results from bodily injury or death that are caused by an accident on board an aircraft or during the operations of embarking or disembarking. Accordingly, in this paper, we addressed if the transmission of COVID-19 an ‘accident’ within the Conventions' meaning and the period of air carrier's liability for passengers' contraction of COVID-19, taking into consideration the exoneration of air carrier's liability in COVID-19 cases. In addition, this paper will study the scope of the safety measures as required by ICAO to prevent the spread of COVID-19 and therefore protect the passengers' safety. In our opinion, we found that the estimate is left to the judge because the assessment of this matter is based on an objective criterion based on the reasonable person test and the fact of each case.     

Examining spatiotemporal changing patterns of bike-sharing usage during COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a globally unprecedented change in human mobility. Leveraging two-year bike-sharing trips from the largest bike-sharing program in Chicago, this study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of bike-sharing usage across the pandemic and compares it with other modes of transport. A set of generalized additive (mixed) models are fitted to identify relationships and delineate nonlinear temporal interactions between station-level daily bike-sharing usage and various independent variables including socio-demographics, land use, transportation features, station characteristics, and COVID-19 infections. Results show: 1) the proportion of commuting trips is substantially lower during the pandemic; 2) the trend of bike-sharing usage follows an “increase-decrease-rebound” pattern; 3) bike-sharing presents as a more resilient option compared with transit, driving, and walking; 4) regions with more white, Asian, and fewer African-American residents are found to become less dependent on bike-sharing; 5) open space and residential areas exhibit less decrease and earlier start-to-recover time; 6) stations near the city center, with more docks, or located in high-income areas go from more increase before the pandemic to more decrease during the pandemic. Findings provide a timely understanding of bike-sharing usage changes and offer suggestions on how different stakeholders should respond to this unprecedented crisis.     

Lockdowned: Everyday mobility changes in response to COVID-19

BackgroundThis paper looks into the impact of the recent COVID-19 epidemic on the daily mobility of people. Existing research into the epidemic travel patterns points at transport as a channel for disease spreading with especially long-distance travel in the centre of interest. We adopt a different approach looking into the effects that epidemic has on the transport system and specifically in relation to short-distance daily mobility activities. We go beyond simple travel avoidance behaviours and look into factors influencing change in travel times and in modal split under epidemic. This leads to the research problems we posit in this paper. We look into the overall reduction of daily travel and into the factors impacting peoples' decisions to refrain from daily traveling. This paper focuses on modes affected and explores differences between various societal groups.MethodsWe use a CATI survey with a representative sample size of 1069 respondents from Poland. The survey was carried out between March, 24th and April, 6th2020, with a start date one week after the Polish government introduced administrative measures aimed at slowing down the COVID-19 epidemic. For data analysis, we propose using the GLM (general linear model), allowing us to include all the qualitative and quantitative variables which depict our sample.ResultsWe observe significant drops in travel times under epidemic conditions. Those drops are similar regardless of the age group and gender. The time decrease depended on the purpose of travels, means of transport, traveller's household size, fear of coronavirus, main occupation, and change in it caused by the epidemic. The more the respondent was afraid of coronavirus, the more she or he shortened the travel time.     

COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane

This paper aims to analyze and understand the impact of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) on aviation and also the role aviation played in the spread of COVID-19, by reviewing the recent scientific literature. We have collected 110 papers on the subject published in the year 2020 and grouped them according to their major application domain, leading to the following categories: Analysis of the global air transportation system during COVID-19, the impacts on the passenger-centric flight experience, and the long-term impacts on broad aviation. Based on the aggregated reported findings in the literature, this paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future scientific directions; hopefully helping aviation to prepare for a post-COVID-19 world.     

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people's mobility: A longitudinal study of the U.S. from March to September of 2020

This paper examines changes in people's mobility over a 7-month period (from March 1st to September 30th, 2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. using longitudinal models and county-level mobility data obtained from people's anonymized mobile phone signals. It differentiates two distinct waves of the study period: Wave 1 (March–June) and Wave 2 (June–September). It also analyzes the relationships of these mobility changes with various social, spatial, policy, and political factors. The results indicate that mobility changes in Wave 1 have a V-shaped trend: people's mobility first declined at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (March–April) but quickly recovered to the pre-pandemic mobility levels from April to June. The rates of mobility changes during this period are significantly associated with most of our key variables, including political partisanship, poverty level, and the strictness of mobility restriction policies. For Wave 2, there was very little mobility decline despite the existence of mobility restriction policies and the COVID-19 pandemic becoming more severe. Our findings suggest that restricting people's mobility to control the pandemic may be effective only for a short period, especially in liberal democratic societies. Further, since poor people (who are mostly essential workers) kept traveling during the pandemic, health authorities should pay special attention to these people by implementing policies to mitigate their high COVID-19 exposure risk.     

Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the factors that shape governments’ willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels – especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations – will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry.     

Integrators' global networks: A topology analysis with insights into the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first analysis of the global networks of integrators FedEx, UPS, and DHL using network science. While noticing that all three networks rely on a “hub-and-spoke” structure, the network configuration of DHL leans towards a multi-“hub-and-spoke” structure that reflects the different business strategy of the integrator. We also analyzed the robustness of the networks, identified the most critical airports per integrator, and assessed that the network of DHL is the most robust according to our definition of robustness. Finally, given the unprecedented historical time that the airline industry is facing at the moment of writing, we provided some insights into how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global capacity of integrators and other cargo airlines. Our results suggest that full-cargo airlines and, much more dramatically, combination airlines were impacted by the pandemic. On the other hand, apart from fluctuations in offered capacity due to travel bans that were quickly recovered thanks to the resilience of their networks, integrators seem to have escaped the early months of the pandemic unscathed.     

A SWOT analysis of China's air cargo sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic

This paper discusses the situation of China's air cargo sector facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the expectation that it can go out of recession more easily than China's air passenger sector, this paper analyzes four aspects that are favorable and unfavorable for its further development: (1) strengths (China's sustainable economic basis and proliferating cargo suppliers), (2) weaknesses (insufficient cargo capacity and less business internationalization), (3) opportunities (top authority support, rising e-commerce demand, and new technological momentum), and (4) challenges (uncertain trade environment and increasing profitability pressure). Then this paper suggests strategies for China's air cargo suppliers to adapt to the pandemic.     

Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour

This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.     

COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry

The COVID-19 pandemic ushered a wave of economic decline across the world due to disruptions in the supply and demand chain for the travel market. This study examines potential recovery pathways from the global aviation industry following the severe negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using archival and secondary data mainly from Flightradar24, ICAO, IATA and EUROCONTROL, the study found that the pandemic inflicted a heavy toll on global aviation, which resulted in ratings downgrades, liquidation and bankruptcy of several airlines and airports due to severe cash burn instigated by travel restrictions. Although the industry is opening up, the recovery process seems much slower than anticipated, which could see more jobs and airlines failing in the absence of relevant support. The study recommends that as the sector opens up, it does so in a responsible manner, which puts measures that protect travellers, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and ensure a quality customer experience anchored on employees' health and customer safety. Recovery should also occur with the view to build back better in line with the provisions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and at the same time responding to the dictates of Agenda 2030 on sustainable development goals (SDGs).     

Quantifying the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on US airline stock prices

This paper uses data at the trading day frequency and the method of local projections to quantify the dynamic responses of U.S. airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock. We show that airline stock prices decline immediately by 0.1 percentage point in response to a 1% COVID-19 shock. In addition, the effect of the shock persists beyond the day on which it occurs, with most airline stock prices falling by as much as 0.6 percentage points after fifteen days. This negative response of airline stock prices to a COVID-19 shock is not explained by a COVID-19-induced increase in airlines’ variable costs, but rather by a COVID-19-induced decrease in air travel, which, in turn decreases revenues, profitability, and stock prices of U.S. airlines.     

Unravel the impact of COVID-19 on the spatio-temporal mobility patterns of microtransit

Shared mobility is an essential component of the larger sharing economy. Ride-hailing, bike-sharing, e-scooters, and other types of shared mobility continue to grow worldwide. Among these services is microtransit, a new transport mode that extends transit coverage within a region. Mobile devices enable microtransit services, aggregating riders and using real-time routing algorithms to group customers traveling in similar directions. Meanwhile, the newly emerged coronavirus, COVID-19, has radically reshaped the ridership behavior of all transit services, including microtransit. While existing research evaluates the performance of microtransit pilot programs before the pandemic, there is no information concerning the spatio-temporal pattern of microtransit activities under the impact of COVID-19. The purpose of this paper is to apply eigendecomposition and k-clique percolation methods to uncover the spatio-temporal patterns of microtransit trips. Further, we used these approaches to identify underlying communities using data from a pilot program in Salt Lake City, Utah. The resulting research offers insight into how COVID-19 altered travel behavior. Specifically, eigendecomposition delineated the homogeneity and heterogeneity of travel patterns across temporal dimensions. We identified first mile/last mile trips as a major source of variance in both pre- and post-COVID periods and that transit-dependent users prove to be inelastic despite the threat of COVID-19. The k-clique percolation method detected possible community formations and tracked how these communities evolved during the pandemic. In addition, we systematically analyzed overlapping communities and the network structure around shared nodes by using a clustering coefficient. The workflow developed in this research broadly is generalizable and valuable for understanding the unique spatio-temporal patterns of microtransit. The framework can also help transit agencies with performance evaluation, regional transport strategies, and optimal vehicle dispatching.     

Changes in car and bus usage amid the COVID-19 pandemic: Relationship with land use and land price

This study aimed to explore the impacts of COVID-19 on car and bus usage and their relationships with land use and land price. Large-scale trip data of car and bus usage in Daejeon, South Korea, were tested. We made a trip-chain-level data set to analyze travel behavior based on activity-based travel volumes. Hexagonal cells were used to capture geographical explanatory variables, and a mixed-effect regression model was adopted to determine the impacts of COVID-19. The modeling outcomes demonstrated behavioral differences associated with using cars and buses amid the pandemic. People responded to the pandemic by reducing their trips more intensively during the daytime and weekends. Moreover, they avoided crowded or shared spaces by reducing bus trips and trips toward commercial areas. In terms of social equity, trips of people living in wealthier areas decreased more than those of people living in lower-priced areas, especially trips by buses. The findings contribute to the previous literature by adding a fundamental reference for the different impacts of pandemics on two universal transportation modes.     

Testing the differentiated impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air travel demand considering social inclusion

The economic downturn and the air travel crisis triggered by the recent coronavirus pandemic pose a substantial threat to the new consumer class of many emerging economies. In Brazil, considerable improvements in social inclusion have fostered the emergence of hundreds of thousands of first-time fliers over the past decades. We apply a two-step regression methodology in which the first step consists of identifying air transport markets characterized by greater social inclusion, using indicators of the local economies’ income distribution, credit availability, and access to the Internet. In the second step, we inspect the drivers of the plunge in air travel demand since the pandemic began, differentiating markets by their predicted social inclusion intensity. After controlling for potential endogeneity stemming from the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, our results suggest that short and low-density routes are among the most impacted airline markets and that business-oriented routes are more impacted than leisure ones. Finally, we estimate that a market with 1% higher social inclusion is associated with a 0.153%–0.166% more pronounced decline in demand during the pandemic. Therefore, markets that have benefited from greater social inclusion in the country may be the most vulnerable to the current crisis.     

Risks,resilience, and pathways to sustainable aviation: A COVID-19 perspective

This paper discusses the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to reconsider the foundations of the global aviation system. There is much evidence that air transport creates opportunities as well as risks. While the former accrue to businesses and individuals, risks are imposed on society. Pandemics, in which aviation has a role as a vector of pathogen distribution, as well as the sector's contribution to climate change are examples of long-standing negative externalities that continue to be ignored in assessments of aviation's economic performance and societal importance. As commercial aviation has shown limited economic resilience throughout its history, this short paper questions whether a return to business-as-usual, supported by very significant State aid payments, is desirable. The volume growth model championed by industry and aviation proponents may have to be replaced with an alternative model of a slimmed air transport system that is economically less vulnerable and accounting for its environmental impacts.     

Exploring the dynamic impacts of COVID-19 on intercity travel in China

Many studies have explored the effects of transportation and population movement on the spread of pandemics. However, little attention has been paid to the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel and its recovery during a public health event period. Using intercity mobility and COVID-19 pandemic data, this study adopts the gradient boosting decision tree method to explore the dynamic effects of the COVID-19 on intercity travel in China. The influencing factors were classified into daily time-varying factors and time-invariant factors. The results show that China's intercity travel decreased on average by 51.35% from Jan 26 to Apr 7, 2020. Furtherly, the COVID-19 pandemic reduces intercity travel directly and indirectly by influencing industry development and transport connectivity. With the spread of COVID-19 and changes of control measures, the relationship between intercity travel and COVID-19, socio-economic development, transport is not linear. The relationship between intercity travel and secondary industry is illustrated by an inverted U-shaped curve from pre-pandemic to post-pandemic, whereas that with tertiary industry can be explained by a U-shaped curve. Meanwhile, this study highlights the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 on intercity mobility. These implications shed light on policies regarding the control measures during public health events that should include the dynamic impact of pandemics on intercity travel.