Deficit Estimation and Welfare Effects after the 1994 Fiscal Reform in China： Evidence from the County Level

Using simple statistical analysis of count-level budgetary data from across all of China＇s counties, the present paper examines whether the post-1994 fiscal decentralization has affected redistribution at the count-level. The new fiscal system has been less able to narrow inter-county dispersion in ftscal imbalances than the old one, even after taking intergovernmental transfer payments into account. Although with the post-1994 system there has been a modest increase in per capita welfare spending in all counties on average, much of the new-found fiscal resources have been spent on salary and administrative expenses rather than spending on public goods. Therefore, it is imperative that the reform of China＇s tax system is intensified.     

Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?

Budget deficit has been a common fiscal pressure facing Chinese cities since the 1994 fiscal reform. Meanwhile, land lease sales have become a significant off-budgetary revenue to local governments since 2003. This paper investigates whether financing budget deficit is an important driving force of the recent soaring housing prices when local governments function as the monopoly supplier of urban land. A conceptual framework is developed to illustrate a transmission mechanism from budget deficit to housing prices. This leads to an empirical model consisting of two simultaneous structural equations for housing prices and land prices. Using data for the 35 major Chinese cities from 2003 to 2011, an empirical exercise shows that although budget deficit has a positive effect on land prices, it is the factors from demand side, such as amenities, income and the user cost of housing capital, that have been pulling up the housing prices.     

中国地方政府总体财力不均等程度及其分解：1997-2005

本文以1997年～2005年全国31省级财政数据为样本,运用基尼系数和GE指数分解法对省级财力差异进行了分解,结果发现：1997年至2005年间我国省际间财力差距没有明显收敛迹象,省际间财力差距一半以上来源于地区内部,并且呈扩大趋势;对省际间财力差异贡献最大的是本级财政收入,其中营业税和增值税贡献是主要因素;净转移支付解释了财力差异的约30％,其中税收返还和专项转移支付是造成省际间差异的主要原因,唯一起到均等化作用的是农村税费改革转移支付,旨在均衡地区间财力差距的一般性转移支付并没起到相应的作用;预算外收入的不平等贡献率大幅缩小,从边际效应看,增加净转移支付和预算外收入的规模,可以降低总体财力差距。     

财政分权对我国城市房价的影响——以杭州市为例

2016年,中国的房地产市场依旧火热,房价增长迅速,热点频出,当然,房价的疯狂上涨也带来了很多难以解决的问题。研究财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格三者之间的关联,并通过对杭州市的相关数据进行实证分析,运用格兰杰检验分析杭州市的财政分权,土地财政和房地产价格,得出如下结论：财政分权使地方政府寻求更多的收入来源,加剧了地方政府对房地产业的扶持,并且导致了土地财政,从而正面影响了房地产价格。     

发达国家人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的特征、做法与启示

随着改革开放的不断深入,我国经济发展进入新的阶段,北京、上海、浙江等一些经济发达省市人均GDP率先跨过5000美元重要关口,今后一个时期还会有更多的省市跨越这一关口,因此研究人均GDP5000美元后发达国家经济发展经验对我国经济进一步发展意义重大。基于这种考虑,本文笔者收集美、日、英等经济发达国家有关经济数据,总结他们在人均GDP5000美元后的经济发展特征及其主要做法,并思考提出了我国人均GDP5000美元后经济发展的几点启示。     

土地出让金支出结构合理化研究

为矫正土地出让金实际支出中的"重城轻农"倾向,国家相关文件原则性规定了土地出让金的五种支出方向,但并未给出各支出方向的具体比例。基于广州市土地出让金利益相关者对各支出方向相对重要性排序的495份调查问卷,采用相对熵组合赋权方法测算土地出让金各支出方向的具体比例。研究表明,土地出让金用于城市建设、支农、土地开发、征地拆迁补偿、其他支出的合理比例应分别为19.51%、21.35%、18.88%、19.15%、21.11%;其中支农支出比例最高,支农支出与征地拆迁补偿支出比例合计达40.50%,与土地出让金支出"重点向新农村建设倾斜"的政策契合。在土地出让金支出重点向新农村建设倾斜的大前提下,可制定土地出让金各支出方向比例的合理区间给地方政府预留一定的弹性操作空间;建立土地收益基金等措施维护上下届政府间的"代际公平"。要确保土地出让收益用于农民、农业、农村,还可参照目前土地复垦净收益分配方式,硬性规定土地被征收前的土地所有权人与土地使用权人占土地出让净收益的一定比例。     

对城镇建设中土地节约集约利用的思考

我国土地资源极度匮乏,人均耕地面积只有世界平均水平的三分之一,而且耕地质量呈下降趋势。随着中国进入城镇化快速发展时期,土地浪费现象非常突出,主要因为盲目兴建开发区、规划贪大求洋、建设方式粗放,全国城镇人均占地面积远远大于发达国家和大多数发展中国家。面对人多地少的基本国情,城镇建设必须走节约集约用地道路,要加强宣传教育、科学规划,提高土地利用率;创新政策、严把项目准入门槛,实现城镇可持续发展。     

Factor decomposition of sub-provincial fiscal disparities in China

With the help of fiscal statistics on sub-provincial public finances in the second half of the 1990s, this paper explores the hotly debated issues pertaining to fiscal disparities in China during this period, and the various factors driving the changes in fiscal disparities. Among them are economic factors (e.g., GDP per capita, economic structure), and institutional factors (e.g., urban–rural dichotomy, ethnic issues).We adopt Morduch and Sicular's general, regression-based approach to decompose fiscal disparity with respect to per capita fiscal expenditure (Morduch & Sicular, 2002). The empirical results indicate that among all the statistically significant factors, GDP per capita and urban–rural dichotomy are the two most important variables that affects fiscal disparities, with a total contribution of 60%. Other relatively important factors are economic structure and population density. Several features of fiscal expenditure in China identified by our empirical findings together with their corresponding policy implications are discussed.     

Cash Transfer Programs with Income Multipliers: PROCAMPO in Mexico

Cash transfer programs create multiplier effects when recipients put the money they receive to work to generate further incomes. When this is the case, the ultimate income effects are multiples of the amounts transferred. We analyze the PROCAMPO program in Mexico that was introduced to compensate farmers for the anticipated negative effect of NAFTA on the prices of basic crops. The transfer rules and the timing of the panel data collected allow unique control of biases in this impact analysis. We find that the multiplier among ejido sector recipients is in the range 1.5–2.6. Multipliers are higher for households with medium and large farms, low numbers of adults in the household, nonindigenous backgrounds, and located in the Center and Gulf regions. High multipliers reflect income opportunities that had remained unrealized due to liquidity constraints that are relaxed by the transfers. Opportunities come from the asset endowments that these households received through the land reform, particularly irrigated land, and they are enhanced by access to technical assistance.     

地方政府土地市场行为的经济学分析

当前,城市非理性扩张、房价不断攀升、土地市场秩序混乱等问题日益凸显,这离不开地方政府的土地市场行为。文章重点分析了地方政府的土地征购、出让定价、实物地租转嫁以及协议出让等行为,指出中央——地方的财政竞争以及地区之间的平行竞争是其深层次的制度根源,而中国土地制度的产权缺陷决定地方政府对土地市场的“事实垄断”为其提供了现实基础。因此,规避地方政府行为对经济的不利影响,必须明确地方政府土地市场的监管职能,深化土地市场改革,充分发挥市场机制的基础性作用。     

户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策——基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究

文章从制度变迁视角分析了户籍改革难以突破的原因,在发展主义理念的指引下,如果户籍改革对地方经济增长或财政收支产生负面影响,地方政府可能会拖延或阻碍改革进程。基于大中城市面板数据的实证研究显示,特大城市提高门槛对地方人均产出有正面影响,户籍改革动力最弱。其他城市虽然可以通过降低户籍门槛提高人均产出水平,但率先放开户籍制度可能引发流动人口大量涌入抵消政策效果,地方政府的户籍改革动力随着城市人口规模增长逐步下降。同时,户籍人口增长会带来财政支出的显著增加,为避免户籍化政策对财政支出产生压力,地方政府会通过户籍门槛对流动人口进行筛选,将对财政收入贡献较低或产生明显财政支出的群体排斥在户籍门槛之外。本文认为中国大中城市的户籍制度存在刚性,可以通过收回地方制定落户政策的权力强制推动户籍制度改革,或利用财政政策降低户籍化成本,激励地方政府推动改革。     

关于完善我国财政转移支付的探讨

有关实证研究表明,我国财政转移支付可以通过均衡地方政府财力缩小地区差距。然而,不断加大力度的财政转移支付功效尚嫌不足,还存在一些亟待解决的问题。完善我国财政转移支付可采取的措施包括:明确各级政府的事权与财权;健全有关法律法规体系和监督机制;进一步扩大转移支付规模,优化转移支付结构;统一转移支付分配标准,推广因素法;规范专项转移支付管理方式;切实推进省对下转移支付改革。     

Do Indian States Mimic,Compete or Interact in Local Public Spending? A Spatial Econometric Analysis

This paper analyses spatial interaction in public spending decisions across 22 Indian states during the period 1980–1981 to 2014–2015. In particular, we estimate interactive hypotheses for different proximities of states using a spatial panel data approach. The empirical results support strong spatial interaction and yardstick competition in public spending. Interactive behavior among the states has been found to be consistent and conditional on per capita income, fiscal transfers, infrastructure, literacy and population density. Interaction arising from yardstick competition significantly affects public spending decisions. The present study realizes the need for a well‐developed and comprehensive network to strengthen the interdependence in public spending among the states for higher welfare gain.     

Erratum for: Swedish Harvests, 1665–1820: Early Modern Growth in the Periphery of European Economy

Abstract

Today, one of the greatest challenges facing macroeconomic history is to quantify economic growth in the early modern period. This article presents and discusses a series of total and per capita harvest production in Sweden within present bordersfor the period 1665–1820. The series is based on three main indices: grain prices, subjective harvest assessments and tithes. Various sources of harvests are more reliable as indicators of relative changes than of absolute levels. For example, tithes probably only taxed between 15 and 60 per cent of the actual harvests, but seem to capture annual harvest fluctuations reasonably well. To estimate the absolute level of per capita harvests, the index of the per capita harvest production is linked to data for the early nineteenth century, which are more reliable. The articles argues that harvests stagnated during the studied period, which is in line with several other studies for various European countries. The annual fluctuations were substantial.     

Swedish Harvests, 1665–1820: Early Modern Growth in the Periphery of European Economy

Abstract

Today, one of the greatest challenges facing macroeconomic history is to quantify economic growth in the early modern period. This article presents and discusses a series of total and per capita harvest production in Sweden within present borders for the period 1665–1820. The series is based on three main indices: grain prices, subjective harvest assessments and tithes. Various sources of harvests are more reliable as indicators of relative changes than of absolute levels. For example, tithes probably only taxed between 15 and 60 per cent of the actual harvests, but seem to capture annual harvest fluctuations reasonably well. To estimate the absolute level of per capita harvests, the index of the per capita harvest production is linked to data for the early nineteenth century, which are more reliable. The article argues that harvests stagnated during the studied period, which is in line with several other studies for various European countries. The annual fluctuations were substantial.     

部分拉美国家人均GDP5000美元时经济社会发展的特征及启示

继上海、北京、天津、浙江等省市后,今后一个阶段我国将有更多的省市跨越人均GDP 5000美元关口。发展经济学认为,一国人均GDP超过5000美元则经济呈加速成长。但部分拉美国家在人均GDP突破5000美元后,经济发展出现大幅振荡,长期原地踏步。笔者总结了部分拉美国家在人均GDP 5000美元左右的经济发展特征,分析了经济社会问题及产生原因,总结提出了我国人均GDP 5000美元后经济社会发展的几点启示。     

Survey of Recent Developments

Amid global economic uncertainty and tumbling world oil prices, Indonesia's economy faces pressure on its external balance and a continued growth slowdown. The government of President Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi) has set an agenda of reform, including simpler, faster investment licensing, historic cuts to fuel subsidies to generate fiscal savings, and increased spending on infrastructure. On the political side, Jokowi has had to deal with several political issues coming not only from parties in opposition but also from parties supporting his government, including during the formation of the new cabinet. We examine the consequences so far of the government's policy initiatives and of the policymaking process. While some initiatives have been implemented with success, some seem to have been launched without enough preparation, consultation, or empirical evidence, and many have been poorly communicated. Although inflation accelerated after the November fuel-price rise, efforts have been made to contain inflationary expectations and to mitigate the effects on poverty through social-assistance programs. The government took steps to cushion the impending impacts of higher fuel prices on vulnerable households by giving cash handouts of Rp 200,000 per month to 15.5 million disadvantaged families who receive the lowest level of welfare, and by promoting publicly funded education and health care. The partial removal of gasoline subsidies and the introduction of a fixed-subsidy policy for diesel in the revised 2015 budget reduce uncertainty about the fiscal position, although increases in government spending in infrastructure development were announced at the same time. The revised budget for 2015 increases spending on infrastructure development by 63% from the 2014 budget, mostly on projects to improve connectivity on land and at sea—such as the development of toll roads, railways, and ports—and to increase the performance of the agricultural sector. However, the recent drop in international oil prices forced the government to increase its target for tax revenue by 30% on last year's target, raising concerns about the effect of falling oil prices on the economy. Trade and investment policy reform is important in unlocking Indonesia's growth potential and improving the country's current external balance. Jokowi's administration, however, has been sending mixed signals about its position towards more open policies. The country has yet to recommence several trade negotiations that were postponed in 2014 and is still struggling to meet its commitments under the ASEAN Economic Community. Although improvement in investment procedures and licensing is currently underway, Indonesia needs to adopt a more positive attitude if it is to attract more investment.     

国家重点生态功能区人口发展的现状、问题与对策研究

国家重点生态功能区是关系到全国生态环境安全的敏感性区域,其中人口因素是经济社会发展的关键性因素.以全国重点生态功能区为研究范围,以区域内县域为分析单位,对2007—2018年数据进行分析.结果表明,重点生态功能区区域人口增长率、人口城镇化水平、人均GDP、人均财政收入和人均受教育程度显著低于全国平均水平;区域人口主要分布于中西部地区,且少数民族人口多,为人口净迁出区,劳动力人口占比较低.区域存在人口总量不利于生态环境保护、城镇发展水平低、外出打工农民比例大、农业人口迁移意愿不强烈、劳动力素质低、区域贫困人口多等问题.最后,针对重点生态功能区人口的发展问题提出对策建议,为实现区域人口的均衡发展提供借鉴和参考.     

Are intergovernmental transfers in China equalizing?

Since 1994, China's central government has implemented a sequence of fiscal recentralization measures to increase its equalization capacity and reduce regional income disparities. However, the effect of intergovernmental transfers on equalization has been called into question by anecdotal evidence that seems to suggest that transfers from the center are not rule-based and are subject to heavy rent-seeking. Unlike past studies, which have focused on the equalization effects of total fiscal transfers from the center, this paper includes an examination of the equalization effects of different types of transfers because some transfers, which are inherently anti-equalizing, may mask the equalization effects of other types of transfers when they are lumped together to find the “average” effect. Using inequality measures, a decomposition of fiscal disparities, and dynamic panel data models, we find that China's intergovernmental transfer system that was established in 1994 does have some equalizing elements. To a large extent, these elements exist due to the mechanism designed to shrink the tax rebates that bear the legacy of the pre-1994 system; to a small extent, these elements exist due to the rule-based general-purpose transfer whose share in total transfers remains small but has increased since 2002. However, the equalization effects of the largest component of transfers, specific-purpose transfers, are anti-equalizing. They are typically not rule-based and thus subject to political influence. As a result, total transfers also exhibit significant anti-equalization effects.     

FISCAL ILLUSION AT THE LOCAL SPHERE: AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF THE FLYPAPER EFFECT USING SOUTH AFRICAN MUNICIPAL DATA1

While South Africa operates a relatively decentralised governance and administrative structure, an important feature of the country's intergovernmental fiscal relations system is the gap that exists between the expenditure responsibilities of sub‐national authorities and their assigned revenue bases. The resulting vertical fiscal imbalance is mainly addressed via significant intergovernmental transfers to provinces and local governments. This factor presents strong a priori grounds for assuming that in the South African context, the heavy dependence of many local governments on intergovernmental transfers may generate fiscal illusion. Despite this, there have not been many empirical studies of fiscal illusion in South Africa's intergovernmental transfer system. This paper extends existing literature on fiscal illusion by using the fiscal year 2005/06 financial and expenditure data from 237 local government authorities in South Africa to evaluate the flypaper variant of the fiscal illusion hypothesis. Empirical results indicate that the marginal effects of municipal own‐source revenues on local expenditure exceed those of intergovernmental transfers. No statistical evidence in support of the flypaper hypothesis within the context of municipal expenditures in South Africa is found.