Do leveraged exchange-traded products deliver their stated multiples?

Using the longest history of a U.S. equity market index, this paper simulates the return deviation and multiple deviation for Leveraged Exchange-Traded Products (LETPs) with different rebalancing frequencies, including daily, monthly, annually, and every five years, over various holding periods. We find that the general perception that daily-rebalanced LETPs are not suitable for long-term strategies is not substantiated. Advancing the analysis, we construct a comprehensive framework that determines the deviation of an LETP’s effective multiple from its stated product multiple under various rebalancing frequencies and holding period scenarios. The empirical framework and results from this paper hold the promise of guiding regulators, policy makers, and investors in their understanding of the tracking performance of LETPs.     

Picking Winners? Investment Consultants’ Recommendations of Fund Managers

Investment consultants advise institutional investors on their choice of fund manager. Focusing on U.S. actively managed equity funds, we analyze the factors that drive consultants’ recommendations, what impact these recommendations have on flows, and how well the recommended funds perform. We find that investment consultants’ recommendations of funds are driven largely by soft factors, rather than the funds’ past performance, and that their recommendations have a significant effect on fund flows. However, we find no evidence that these recommendations add value, suggesting that the search for winners, encouraged and guided by investment consultants, is fruitless.     

Corporate governance and the sensitivity of investments to cash flows

We find very strong and consistent evidence that investments in Strong‐Governance firms (managers not entrenched) are strongly sensitive to availability of internal cash flows while such sensitivity is not different from zero for Weak‐Governance firms (entrenched management). We interpret this as evidence in support of Kaplan and Zingales' (1997) contention that sensitivity of investments to cash flows is not an adequate measure of financing constraints. More importantly, our findings are consistent with Kaplan and Zingales’ conjecture that the observed sensitivity of investments to cash flows in firms that do not face financing constraints may be driven by excessive risk aversion of managers.     

Duration-Driven Returns

We propose a duration-based explanation for the premia on major equity factors, including value, profitability, investment, low-risk, and payout factors. These factors invest in firms that earn most of their cash flows in the near future and could therefore be driven by a premium on near-future cash flows. We test this hypothesis using a novel data set of single-stock dividend futures, which are claims on dividends of individual firms. Consistent with our hypothesis, the expected Capital Asset Pricing Model alpha on individual cash flows decreases in maturity within a firm, and the alpha is not related to the above characteristics when controlling for maturity.     

Sentimental mutual fund flows

We show that many stylized empirical patterns for mutual fund flows are driven by investor sentiment. Specifically, when sentiment is high, investors exhibit a stronger tendency of chasing past fund performance; fund flows are less sensitive to fund expenses; and investors are attracted more to funds with sheer visibility. Moreover, the well‐documented positive relation between fund flows and future fund performance is significant only during high sentiment periods and is mainly driven by expected component of fund flows. Finally, we show that mutual fund investors exhibit a significantly negative timing ability at the individual fund level when sentiment is high.     

The equilibrium pricing of exchange rates and assets when trade takes time

When trade takes time, there are systematic deviations of the exchange rate from its Law of One Price value; these depend on the real interest rate in terms of the importable good. There is no systematic tendency for the spot rate to attain its LOP value in the long run. This means that agents in different countries price the same cash flows by using different risk premia, with agents in the ‘foreign’ country pricing the asset by adding a risk premium related to foreign exchange risk.     

Earnings Management in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy

We study the impact of earnings management prior to bankruptcy filing on the passage of firms through Chapter 11. Using data on public US firms, we construct three measures of earnings management: a real activities manipulation measure (abnormal operating cash flows) and two accounting manipulation measures (discretionary accruals and abnormal working capital accruals). We find that, controlling for the impact of factors known to influence earnings management and firm survival in bankruptcy, earnings management prior to bankruptcy significantly reduces the likelihood of Chapter 11 plan confirmation and emergence from Chapter 11. The results are driven primarily by extreme values of earnings management, characterized by one or two standard deviations above or below the mean. The findings are consistent with creditors reacting positively to unduly conservative earnings reports and negatively to overly optimistic earnings reports. We also find that the presence of a Big 4 auditor is associated with a higher incidence of confirmation and switching to a Big 4 auditor before filing increases the incidence of emergence.     

Strategic insider trading: Disguising order flows to escape trading competition

Short sellers actively exploit trading opportunities from insider sales. We argue that, in response to concern about potential order flow information leakage, insiders strategically disguise their order flows to escape trading competition. Our model predicts that, when short sellers are sensitive to order flow information, insiders are more likely to adopt a cautious trading strategy, i.e., splitting their trades over time. Empirically, we identify cautious trading by tracking consecutive transactions at the insider-strategy level. We find that, when anticipating intensive short selling potential, (1) insiders tend to trade cautiously; and (2) cautious insiders tend to reduce their initial trades. Overall, we highlight the strategic interaction between insiders and short sellers on the diffusion of order flow information.     

Managing mutual funds or managing expense ratios? Evidence from the Greek fund industry

This study examines the expense ratio policy of Greek equity funds operating in a small emerging market with an oligopolistic, bank-dominated financial system. Constructing a unique dataset of non-publicly available expense ratios charged by these funds, we examine the impact these expenses have on funds’ performance and flows. The main conclusion is that funds’ performance is negatively related to their expenses, while investors’ flows are not directly affected by expenses. Furthermore, the funds affiliated with one of the three dominant domestic banking groups achieve higher performance and attract higher net flows in comparison to their competitors.     

It's all in the name: Mutual fund name changes after SEC Rule 35d-1

We study how investors respond to ‘superficial’ mutual-fund name changes that occur for no fundamental reasons. We find that such name changes remain widespread even after regulation to curb potentially misleading name changes (SEC Rule 35d-1). Superficial changes are more widespread than previously studied ‘misleading’ changes that are not accompanied by corresponding portfolio adjustments reflecting the investment style suggested by the new name. Superficial changes appear to be driven by managerial incentives. Investors react to superficial changes with increased fund flows but appear to gain no benefit through improved performance or lower fees. On the contrary, name-change funds underperform as a group. Our findings highlight inefficiencies in the mutual-fund market and hold important implications for the stakeholders involved.     

Defined Contribution Pension Plans: Sticky or Discerning Money?

Participants in defined contribution (DC) retirement plans rarely adjust their portfolio allocations, suggesting that their investment choices and consequent money flows are sticky and not discerning. However, participants’ inertia could be offset by DC plan sponsors, who adjust the plan's investment options. We examine these countervailing influences on flows into U.S. mutual funds. We find that flows into funds from DC assets are more volatile and exhibit more performance sensitivity than non‐DC flows, primarily due to adjustments to the investment options by the plan sponsors. Thus, DC retirement money is less sticky and more discerning than non‐DC money.     

Fund ESG performance and downside risk: Evidence from China

Whether responsible investing reduces portfolio risk remains open to discussion. We study the relationship between ESG performance and downside risk at fund level in the Chinese equity mutual fund market. We find that fund ESG performance is positively associated with fund downside risk during the period between July 2018 and March 2021, and that the positive relationship weakens during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose three channels through which fund ESG performance could affect fund downside risk: (i) the firm channel in which the risk-mitigation effect of portfolio firms’ good ESG practices could be manifested at fund level, (ii) the diversification channel in which the portfolio concentration of high ESG-rated funds could amplify fund downside risk, and (iii) the flow channel in which funds’ better ESG performance may attract greater investor flows that could reduce fund downside risk. We show evidence that the observed time-varying relationship between fund ESG performance and downside risk is driven by the relative force of the three channels.     

Accruals quality and the incentive contracting role of earnings

This paper investigates the association between accruals quality and the usefulness of accounting earnings in incentive contracting. Accruals quality, which measures the precision with which accruals predict future cash flows, has two potential opposing effects on the noise in earnings as a measure of managerial performance. Specifically, higher quality accruals should decrease the deviations of earnings from future cash flows and increase the sensitivity of earnings to cash flows that are not attributable to managerial actions. My evidence indicates that better accruals quality is associated with a higher weight on earnings in compensation contracts, which suggests that accruals quality overall reduces the noise in earnings. I also find that the positive association between accruals quality and the weight on earnings is mainly driven by innate accruals quality rather than discretionary accruals quality. Therefore, accrual errors resulting from the volatility of the operating environment are a primary source of noise in earnings considered by compensation committees.     

Do investors show an attentional bias toward past performance? An eye-tracking experiment on visual attention to mutual fund disclosures in simplified fund prospectuses

This study examines the cognitive processes underlying investors’ extrapolations of past fund performance and whether investors’ attention patterns may explain their return-chasing behaviors. We measured the attention that investors paid to mutual fund disclosures in a simplified fund prospectus using unobtrusive infrared eye tracking. Results suggest that prior fund performance, which is normatively irrelevant information and not useful in predicting future performance, received considerable attention from investors. More interestingly, the impact of prior fund performance on investors’ purchasing intentions was fully mediated through expected returns and attention paid to past performance information. The results indicate that investors apparently believe in performance persistence or in a ‘hot hand’ effect, and that mutual fund purchases are driven by salient information such as superior performance. Moreover, we tested the disclaimer mandated by regulatory bodies, which warns that past performance does not guarantee future results. We found that the disclaimer was ineffective in reducing investors’ extrapolation biases, despite the fact that the disclaimer was attended to and properly encoded by investors.     

The revolving door and worker flows in banking regulation

This paper traces career transitions of federal and state U.S. banking regulators from a large sample of publicly available curricula vitae, and provides basic facts on worker flows between the regulatory and private sector resulting from the revolving door. We find strong countercyclical net worker flows into regulatory jobs, driven largely by higher gross outflows into the private sector during booms. These worker flows are also driven by state-specific banking conditions as measured by local banks’ profitability, asset quality and failure rates. The regulatory sector seems to experience a retention challenge over time, with shorter regulatory spells for workers, and especially those with higher education. Evidence from cross-state enforcement actions of regulators shows gross inflows into regulation and gross outflows from regulation are both higher during periods of intense enforcement, though gross outflows are significantly smaller in magnitude. These results appear inconsistent with a “quid-pro-quo” explanation of the revolving door, but consistent with a “regulatory schooling” hypothesis.     

Bankruptcy, Warrants, and State-Contingent Changes in the Ownership of Control

We consider the design of securities that govern the distribution of cash flows and control rights for an investment project. An entrepreneur, endowed with managerial talent, contracts with an outside investor for required capital. Optimal contracts stipulate that the ownership of control and the distribution of cash flows are specified on a state contingent basis to manage the distortions that develop from the use of outside financing and so make the best use of the advantage in project management enjoyed by insiders. Our results illustrate that the use of warrants and convertible securities, which transfer control of the firm to outsiders in good states, and bankruptcy, which transfers control to outsiders in bad states, are related features of optimal contracts. Our model also indicates that firms will benefit from direct access to two types of bankruptcy processes resembling Chapter 7 and Chapter 11 (including deviations from absolute priority) of the bankruptcy code. This results differs from observed practices since stockholders cannot waive their rights for protection under Chapter 11. We show that when direct access to Chapter 7 is highly valuable, market participants have found clever ways to obtain it.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: G32 and G33.     

Financial globalisation uncertainty/instability is good for financial development

This study assesses the effect of time-dynamic financial globalisation uncertainty on financial development in 53 African countries for the period 2000–2011. The empirical evidence is based on the Generalised Method of Moments with forward orthogonal deviations. The following findings are established. First, financial globalisation uncertainty does not significantly affect money supply, financial system deposits and financial size. Second, the uncertainty increases banking system efficiency, banking system activity and financial system activity. Moreover, the positive effects are consistently driven by above-median uncertainty levels. It follows that uncertainty in foreign capital flows may be a disguised advantage for domestic financial development, especially in dealing with the substantially documented issue of surplus liquidity in African financial institutions. Additionally, the sceptical view in the financial globalisation literature that ‘allocation efficiency’ is only plausible in the absence of uncertainty/instability is not substantiated by the findings. Justifications for the nexuses and policy implications are discussed.     

Applying Wand and Weber's Surface and Deep Structure Approaches to Financial Reporting Systems

Wand and Weber's fundamental premise is that ‘a physical‐symbol system has the necessary and sufficient properties to represent real‐world meaning’. Their representation of real‐world meaning flows from three possible information system models: representational, state‐tracking and de‐compositional. We address these three types of information system in the context of financial reporting systems and we use purchased goodwill and other intangible assets to selectively critique their characteristics. The principle feature of this critique is the comparison that is made throughout the paper between an economic and an artefactual (physical‐symbol) representation of assets, particularly the intangible ones, in the financial reporting domain.     

Innovation capability and post-IPO performance

This paper studies how firms’ innovation capability is related to their stock performance and eventual survival for a sample of biotech IPO firms. We create product-related measures of firms’ innovation capability by tracking the changes in R&D expenses, products, patents, strategic alliances, and product development stages for our sample firms, as disclosed in their IPO prospectuses and third post-IPO 10-K filings. We find that innovation capability is critical to contemporaneous stock performance and eventual firm survival. Biotech IPO firms are more likely to succeed in the long run, if they are able to expand the scale of their research undertakings and make progress in these research activities.