COVID-19 pandemic and air transportation: Successfully navigating the paper hurricane

This paper aims to analyze and understand the impact of the corona virus disease (COVID-19) on aviation and also the role aviation played in the spread of COVID-19, by reviewing the recent scientific literature. We have collected 110 papers on the subject published in the year 2020 and grouped them according to their major application domain, leading to the following categories: Analysis of the global air transportation system during COVID-19, the impacts on the passenger-centric flight experience, and the long-term impacts on broad aviation. Based on the aggregated reported findings in the literature, this paper concludes with a set of recommendations for future scientific directions; hopefully helping aviation to prepare for a post-COVID-19 world.     

Hub airport slot Re-allocation and subsidy policy to speed up air traffic recovery amid COVID-19 pandemic --- case on the Chinese airline market

With international air travels largely banned around the world amid the global COVID-19 pandemic, many gateway and hub airports have more ideal slots available for reallocation. Airport traffic recovery replaces airport congestion to become the primary challenge of major airports around the world. With the pandemic well controlled domestically in China, the government liberalizes the hub airport slots for those previously forbidden services to the small/regional airports. This paper thus analytically examines the effect of this slot liberalization. The government subsidy to the small airports has also been considered. It is found that the slot liberalization can speed up airport traffic recovery for both hub and small airports. The hub airport slot liberalization leads to a lower level of minimum subsidy to sustain the survival of the small airports. Given any fixed level of subsidy to the small airport, both the total airport traffic and social welfare would improve with the slot liberalization at the hub airport. When the government can adjust the level of subsidy after liberalizing the hub airport slots, the subsidy could be excessive, if the government emphasizes too much on airport traffic recovery. This would, however, harm the overall social welfare.     

COVID-19 pandemic and prospects for recovery of the global aviation industry

The COVID-19 pandemic ushered a wave of economic decline across the world due to disruptions in the supply and demand chain for the travel market. This study examines potential recovery pathways from the global aviation industry following the severe negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using archival and secondary data mainly from Flightradar24, ICAO, IATA and EUROCONTROL, the study found that the pandemic inflicted a heavy toll on global aviation, which resulted in ratings downgrades, liquidation and bankruptcy of several airlines and airports due to severe cash burn instigated by travel restrictions. Although the industry is opening up, the recovery process seems much slower than anticipated, which could see more jobs and airlines failing in the absence of relevant support. The study recommends that as the sector opens up, it does so in a responsible manner, which puts measures that protect travellers, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and ensure a quality customer experience anchored on employees' health and customer safety. Recovery should also occur with the view to build back better in line with the provisions of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and at the same time responding to the dictates of Agenda 2030 on sustainable development goals (SDGs).     

Government support to airlines in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper assesses government support measures to the air transport sector following the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic from two points of view. First, it explores the factors that shape governments’ willingness to support airlines. This is followed by a discussion on the various types of support that may be provided and how country-specific parameters influence the choice of measures. Second, it analyses the implications of government support in three dimensions relevant to air transport policy: competition and liberalisation, airline ownership and control, and environmental sustainability. The analysis suggests that most governments give a high priority to maintaining air transport connectivity in order to protect economic activity and jobs, in aviation itself and in related sectors such as tourism. The trade-off between ensuring connectivity and maintaining competition after the COVID-19 pandemic is a challenge with several political and economic dimensions. The re-orientation of public policy in the aftermath of the pandemic may limit the relative importance of the policy priorities that shaped the evolution of the air transport sector before the crisis, especially those related to climate change and the environment. The role of government and public authorities at all levels – especially the type and duration of measures affecting transport operations – will be crucial for the future development of the aviation industry.     

Elderly mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic: A qualitative exploration in Kunming,China

The outbreak of COVID-19 in China started at the end of December 2019. This led to a series of containment measurements to control the spread of COVID-19. Despite of the widely reported effects of these measures, inadequate attention has gone to their social impacts. The elderly, as one of the most susceptible populations, has experienced a considerable reduction in mobility.This paper explores the role mobility played and how the social environment influenced elderly mobility in the first 2 months of the COVID-19 outbreak. We surveyed 186 families with a total of 248 elderly people in Kunming. The results show that mobility improves the quality of daily living, such as access to grocery shopping, maintenance of outdoor activities for health cultivation and preserving social networks even during the pandemic. Four themes relating to social environment emerged from the data as elements influencing elderly mobility during the pandemic: social pressure, practice of the virtue of Xiao, the social norm of respecting the aged and the impacts of technological advances. Among them, the virtue of Xiao enabled the elderly to stay in place in the early phase of COVID-19 by fulfilling their needs for daily necessities and social interactions, whilst being less technology-savvy further excluded them socially by restraining them from restoring mobility after the lifting of travel restrictions.     

Integrators' global networks: A topology analysis with insights into the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper we propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first analysis of the global networks of integrators FedEx, UPS, and DHL using network science. While noticing that all three networks rely on a “hub-and-spoke” structure, the network configuration of DHL leans towards a multi-“hub-and-spoke” structure that reflects the different business strategy of the integrator. We also analyzed the robustness of the networks, identified the most critical airports per integrator, and assessed that the network of DHL is the most robust according to our definition of robustness. Finally, given the unprecedented historical time that the airline industry is facing at the moment of writing, we provided some insights into how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the global capacity of integrators and other cargo airlines. Our results suggest that full-cargo airlines and, much more dramatically, combination airlines were impacted by the pandemic. On the other hand, apart from fluctuations in offered capacity due to travel bans that were quickly recovered thanks to the resilience of their networks, integrators seem to have escaped the early months of the pandemic unscathed.     

A SWOT analysis of China's air cargo sector in the context of COVID-19 pandemic

This paper discusses the situation of China's air cargo sector facing the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the expectation that it can go out of recession more easily than China's air passenger sector, this paper analyzes four aspects that are favorable and unfavorable for its further development: (1) strengths (China's sustainable economic basis and proliferating cargo suppliers), (2) weaknesses (insufficient cargo capacity and less business internationalization), (3) opportunities (top authority support, rising e-commerce demand, and new technological momentum), and (4) challenges (uncertain trade environment and increasing profitability pressure). Then this paper suggests strategies for China's air cargo suppliers to adapt to the pandemic.     

Changes in land use typology of global airports: An empirical investigation with implications for the aerotropolis concept

Aerotropolis is an urban development concept characterised by the concentration of land uses fostering economic activities around airports. However, limited empirical evidence exists about the formation of aerotropolises and their effects on the productivity of airports. This study addresses the gaps by examining changes in land use patterns around 75 major airports globally, using data extracted from Google Earth for two time periods: 2004 and 2014. A Two-Step cluster analysis technique was applied to identify natural groupings of the airports in terms of their land use patterns for both periods. Changes in cluster membership were observed between the periods to examine the process of aerotropolis formation. A multivariate multiple linear regression (MMLR) model is estimated to identify factors contributing to aerotropolis formation process. Finally, the effects of the aerotropolis formation process on airport productivity is estimated in a two-stage least square (2SLS) regression model. Cluster analysis results show that airport land side development can be classified into three groups: Island airports (surrounded by largely vacant land), Waterfront airports (adjacent to a large body of water), and Built form airports (well-developed residential, commercial and industrial land uses). Overall, built-up areas increased by 2.1% between 2004 and 2014, and only three airports transitioned from Island to Built form – suggesting a weak evidence of the aerotropolis formation process. Developable land surrounding the airports and city population growth rate contributed significantly to this process, which consequently contributed to the productivity of airports. In conclusion, aerotropolises are a promising concept, yet unreal. It needs to be integrated with city plans to direct development, and thereby, to make it a reality.     

Impacts of COVID-19 on aircraft usage and fuel consumption: A case study on four Chinese international airports

COVID-19 pandemic starting in early 2020 has greatly impacted human and industrial activities. Air transport in China shrank abruptly in February 2020, following a year-long gradual recovery. The airline companies reacted to this unprecedented event by dramatically reducing the flight volume and rearranging the aircraft types. As the first major economy that successfully controls the spread of COVID-19, China can provide a unique opportunity to quantify the medium-long impacts on the air transport industry. To quantify the corresponding changes and to elucidate the effects of COVID-19 in the wake of two major outbreaks centered in Wuhan and Beijing, we analyze twelve flight routes formed by four selected airports, using the Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) data in 2019 and 2020. Our results show that the total flight volume in 2020 reduced to 67.8% of 2019 in China. The recovering time of flight volume was about 2–6 months, dependent on the severity. In order to unwind the severe challenge, airlines mainly relied on aircraft B738 and A321 between February and June in 2020 because the fuel consumption per seat of these two aircraft types is the lowest. Besides, fuel consumption and aircraft emissions are calculated according to the Base of Aircraft Data (BADA) and the International Civil Aviation Organization's Engine Emissions Databank (ICAO's EEDB). At the end of 2020, the ratios of daily fuel consumption and aircraft emissions of 2020 to 2019 rebounded to about 0.875, suggesting the domestic commercial flights were nearly fully recovered. Our results may provide practical guidance and meaningful expectation for commercial aircraft management for other countries.     

Public transport trends in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic: An investigation of the influence of bio-security concerns on trip behaviour

This paper draws on findings from an Australia-wide survey with data collected in three waves throughout 2020 to explore the impact of COVID-19 on public transport trends in metropolitan areas of Australia. Following consideration of the public transport sector response to the pandemic and the emerging literature context, we explore three principal questions: (i) How has weekly travel composition changed across the waves? (ii) How has level of concern with using public transport changed over the course of the pandemic given new bio-security concerns? and (iii) How has attitudes to risk been associated with the changes in PT use? A key finding is that concerns over bio-security issues around public transport are enduring, that concern about hygiene is significantly negatively related to public transport use and that those with higher concern about the hygiene of public transport also held higher concern about COVID-19 at work. Even as COVID-19 restrictions are eased, both concern about crowds and hygiene have a significant and negative correlation with public transport use. Concluding remarks are offered on what might need to happen for public transport patronage to start returning.     

Slowly coming out of COVID-19 restrictions in Australia: Implications for working from home and commuting trips by car and public transport

With the onset of COVID-19 restrictions and the slow relaxing of many restrictions, it is imperative that we understand what this means for the performance of the transport network. In going from almost no commuting, except for essential workers, to a slow increase in travel activity with working from home (WFH) continuing to be both popular and preferred, this paper draws on two surveys, one in late March at the height of restrictions and one in late May as restrictions are starting to be partially relaxed, to develop models for WFH and weekly one-way commuting travel by car and public transport. We compare the findings as one way to inform us of the extent to which a sample of Australian residents have responded through changes in WFH and commuting. While it is early days to claim any sense of a new stable pattern of commuting activity, this paper sets the context for ongoing monitoring of adjustments in travel activity and WFH, which can inform changes required in the revision of strategic metropolitan transport models as well as more general perspectives on future transport and land use policy and planning.     

Landscape pattern and car use: Linking household data with satellite imagery

Landscape pattern has long been hypothesized to influence automobile dependency. Because choices about land development tend to have long-lasting impacts that span over decades, understanding the magnitude of this influence is critical to the design of policies to reduce emissions and other negative externalities associated with car use. Combining household survey data from Germany with satellite imagery and other geo-referenced data sources, we undertake an econometric analysis of the relation between landscape pattern and automobile dependency. Specifically, we employ a two-part model to investigate two dimensions of car use, the discrete decision to own a car and, conditional upon ownership, the continuous decision of how far to drive. Results indicate that landscape pattern, as captured by measures of both land cover (e.g. the extent of open space and landscape diversity) and land use (e.g. the density of regional businesses) are important predictors of car ownership and use. Other policy-relevant variables, such as fuel prices and public transit infrastructure, are also identified as correlates. Based on the magnitude of our estimates, we conclude that carefully considered land development and zoning measures – ones that encourage dense development, diverse land cover and mixed land use – can have beneficial impacts in reducing car dependency that extend far into the future.     

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on people's mobility: A longitudinal study of the U.S. from March to September of 2020

This paper examines changes in people's mobility over a 7-month period (from March 1st to September 30th, 2020) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. using longitudinal models and county-level mobility data obtained from people's anonymized mobile phone signals. It differentiates two distinct waves of the study period: Wave 1 (March–June) and Wave 2 (June–September). It also analyzes the relationships of these mobility changes with various social, spatial, policy, and political factors. The results indicate that mobility changes in Wave 1 have a V-shaped trend: people's mobility first declined at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (March–April) but quickly recovered to the pre-pandemic mobility levels from April to June. The rates of mobility changes during this period are significantly associated with most of our key variables, including political partisanship, poverty level, and the strictness of mobility restriction policies. For Wave 2, there was very little mobility decline despite the existence of mobility restriction policies and the COVID-19 pandemic becoming more severe. Our findings suggest that restricting people's mobility to control the pandemic may be effective only for a short period, especially in liberal democratic societies. Further, since poor people (who are mostly essential workers) kept traveling during the pandemic, health authorities should pay special attention to these people by implementing policies to mitigate their high COVID-19 exposure risk.     

Entering the regime of automobility: car ownership and use by novice drivers in Iceland

This article investigates how young individuals access the regime of automobility. Instead of looking at the systemic nature of automobility, the article concentrates on its human component. Access to cars by young people in the greater Reykjavík area, and the shift in modal choice that occurs when they start driving, was investigated with a survey among high school students that yielded 553 answers. The results show that young residents in the capital area are fully aware of the costs of car-based automobility. Their near-universal move to cars when they enter driving age reflects the conditions of this regime. Yet they are also ambivalent about their position within the regime. While most previous studies of novice drivers have centred on road safety issues, this study shows the need to consider the cultural and social aspects of young people driving. This can lead to a deeper understanding of the modal shift that perpetuates car-based automobility, which is an important issue for transport planning.     

Impact of bus rapid transit on housing price and accessibility changes in Sydney: A repeat sales approach

ABSTRACT

New public transport infrastructure is expected to improve accessibility for local residents, and thus contribute to increased land value. The contribution that a bus rapid transit (BRT) system can make to increased land value is less certain than for rail-based systems, with the literature mostly containing bus-based examples from developing countries with extensive BRT networks. This article considers a BRT system named the Liverpool–Parramatta Transitway (LPT) that was implemented in southwestern Sydney in 2003 to improve public transport accessibility in the local area. A repeat sales model is constructed to investigate the impact of the LPT on residential housing prices and accessibility changes using repeat sales data from before and after the opening of the LPT. This identified little price difference between properties close to LPT stations and outside of the area that could be considered as affected by the LPT service coverage. This outcome is at variance with the theoretical underpinning of land value uplift and other empirical evidence relating to the LPT. Hedonic models using the same repeat sales data investigate the study area in more detail, stratifying the sample by housing type and by comparing separate before and after models. These research outcomes identify the extent to which the BRT system has an impact on local housing prices through accessibility improvements to the study area and provide a deeper understanding as to how the quantification of land value uplift from BRT represents one element of the wider economic benefits of a BRT system.     

Airport user experience unpacked: Conceptualizing its potential in the face of COVID-19

Given the unprecedented challenges imposed on the aviation industry by the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper proposes a new perspective on airport user experience as a field of study to unlock its potential as a basis for strategic roadmapping. Through an integrative literature review, this study points out a dominant focus, in practice and research, on customer experience and service quality, as opposed to user experience, to help airports gain a competitive edge in an increasingly commoditized industry. The review highlights several issues with this understanding of experience, as users other than passengers, such as employees, working for the airport and its myriad stakeholders, as well as visitors, are largely omitted from study. Given the complexity of the system, operationally, passengers are generally reduced to smooth flows of a passive mass, which this study argues is both a missed opportunity and a vulnerability exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Major events apart from COVID-19 are used to show the negative effects this simplification of user experience has had. Based on solutions and models proposed in previous studies, a conceptual model has been developed to illustrate the postulated potential of a deeper and more holistic study of airport user experience to make airport systems generally more agile, flexible and future-proof. As such, the paper advocates to utilize the user experience as a basis for strategic planning to equip airports with the know-how to manage not just daily operations more effectively but also the aftermath of and recovery from major events like the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, with the user experience at the center of the strategic roadmap, airports can plan ahead to mitigate the impact of future scenarios. The importance of future research and the use of existing research are discussed.     

The impact of car ownership and public transport usage on cancer screening coverage: Empirical evidence using a spatial analysis in England

A spatial analysis has been conducted in England, with the aim to examine the impact of car ownership and public transport usage on breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. District-level cancer screening coverage data (in proportions) and UK census data have been collected and linked. Their effects on cancer screening coverage were modelled by using both non-spatial and spatial models to control for spatial correlation.Significant spatial correlation has been observed and thus spatial model is preferred. It is found that increased car ownership is significantly associated with improved breast and cervical cancer screening coverage. Public transport usage is inversely associated with breast cancer screening coverage; but positively associated with cervical cancer screening. An area with higher median age is associated with higher screening coverage. The effects of other socio-economic factors such as deprivation and economic activity have also been explored with expected results. Some regional differences have been observed, possibly due to unobserved factors.Relevant transport and public health policies are thus required for improved coverage. While restricting access to cars may lead to various benefits in public health, it may also result in worse cancer screening uptake. It is thus recommended that careful consideration should be taken before implementing policy interventions.