Can earnings fixated investors survive in a competitive securities market? Implications for sustained price anomalies and mark-to-market accounting

We model the dynamic survival of earnings fixated investors in a competitive securities market that allows for learning and arbitrage and that is populated by heterogeneous investors. Our model is distinct from those based on aggressive trading by overconfident investors. We prove that in the absence of noise traders, rational investors will drive out earnings fixated investors from the market in the long-run. More interestingly, we show that in a market with noise traders, some proportion of earnings fixated investors survive in long-run equilibrium for all feasible model parameter values. Furthermore, under no circumstances can the earnings fixated investors be driven out of the market completely. On the contrary, for some parameter values, the earnings fixated investors drive out the rational investors entirely. These results rationalize the long-run sustainability of common pricing anomalies. They also highlight potential benefits to society of mark-to-market accounting.     

Women in public policy and public administration?

This paper explores the persistence of gender inequality in public administration in the UK and globally. The implications for the continued under-representation of women are explored. The data reveals vertical and horizontal occupational gender segregation which the paper argues, drawing upon representative bureaucracy research, has policy outcomes for beneficiaries of public services.     

Financial institutional blockholders and earnings quality: Do blockholders contestability and countries' institutions matter?

We examine the relationship between financial earnings quality and block ownership by institutional investors. This relation is vital given the tremendous growth of institutional ownership and the significant influence of large institutional blockholders on financial earnings quality. Our findings indicate that the presence of institutional blockholders drives higher financial earnings quality. Results from an instrumental variable (IV) approach suggest our documented effects are directional. Next, cross-sectional tests prove that the relationship is more pronounced among firms adopting IFRS and those in countries with minority shareholder protection. Moreover, our results reveal that property rights and the lack of contestability partially mitigate the positive association between institutional ownership and earnings quality. Our findings inform the ongoing debate on the influence of institutional ownership on earnings, which institutional and regulatory dimensions affect earnings, and through what channels these effects run. Overall, our results suggest that beyond corporate governance practices that enhance financial earnings quality, different countries' institutions and regulations settings influence the relation of institutional ownership to earnings quality.     

What drives portfolio investments of German banks in emerging capital markets?

After decades of steady liberalization and financial market development, emerging capital markets experienced unparalleled capital inflows in the aftermath of the emerging markets crisis of the 1990s. This paper studies portfolio investment decisions of German banks in emerging capital markets from 2002 to 2007. The use of a dynamic time-series cross-section framework and the micro database External Position Report provided by Deutsche Bundesbank permit insights into the various determinants of portfolio investments in ECMs. For example, there is evidence that German banks take into account the various dimensions of financial market development in their portfolio investment decisions and anticipate the special risks inherent in emerging markets. Proxies for the overall development and efficiency of capital markets have the highest economic significance of all variables. The introduction of depositary receipts programs has a positive impact on stock market investment. Moreover, there is evidence that global risk aversion exerts a significant influence in times of financial turmoil.     

Are CEOs compensated for value destroying growth in earnings?

Prior research shows that firms generating earnings growth by improving profitability create shareholder value, while firms generating earnings growth through investment destroy value. This paper examines whether compensation committees consider this while determining CEO compensation. We first confirm prior results that growth from increased profitability is perceived by markets to add value while growth from investment does not. While growth from increased profitability is positively associated with compensation, so is growth from investment. The presence of institutional ownership increases the weight on growth from increased profitability, but does not reduce the weight on growth from investment. Further, value-oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to growth from increased profitability and reduces the sensitivity to growth from investment. Contrarily, growth-oriented institutional ownership increases the sensitivity of compensation growth to growth from investment. Our results highlight the importance of understanding the nature of earnings growth in determining executive compensation.     

Efficiency in housing markets: Which home buyers know how to discount?

We test for efficiency in the Swedish co-op market by examining the negative relationship between the sales price and the present value of future monthly payments or ‘rents’. If the co-op housing market is efficient, the present value of co-op rental payments due to underlying debt obligations of the cooperative should be fully reflected in the sales price. However, a one hundred kronor increase in the present value of future rents only leads to an approximately 75 kronor reduction in the sales price. These inefficiencies are larger at the lower end of the housing market and in poorer, less educated regions and appear to reflect both liquidity constraints and the existence of more ‘sophisticated’ buyers in higher educated areas. Overall, our findings suggest that there is some systematic failure to properly discount the future stream of rent payments relative to the up front sales price.     

Do management EPS forecasts allow returns to reflect future earnings? Implications for the continuation of management’s quarterly earnings guidance

Using 18,253 firm-year observations from 1998 through 2003, we build on literature suggesting that more informative disclosures allow returns to better reflect future earnings and test whether management earnings per share forecasts and their characteristics influence the future earnings response coefficient (FERC). We find that FERCs are greater for forecasting firms and when forecasts are more frequent or precise. We suggest that more frequent and more precise forecasts assist investors in better predicting future earnings. Importantly, we find that quarterly and short-term forecasts incrementally increase the association between returns and future earnings beyond annual and long-term forecasts; thus, even short-term, quarterly forecasts allow investors to form better expectations about future earnings. This suggests a benefit of quarterly earnings forecasts possibly overlooked in recommendations from the United States Chamber of Commerce, CFA Institute, Business Roundtable Institute for Corporate Ethics, and The Conference Board to eliminate quarterly earnings guidance.     

What determines debt structure in emerging markets: Transaction costs or public monitoring?

We examine the predilection for private bonds over bank financing (debt structure) for emerging markets within the frameworks of both transaction cost economics and a transparency explanation, emphasizing the distinction between public monitoring (bonds) and private monitoring (banks), as well as considering the influence of national culture on institutions. Employing several tests, including structural equation modeling, we find, among many results that in emerging markets bonds are preferred over bank loans when there is less corporate opacity and fewer foreign access restrictions, as well as in environment of greater political instability, transaction cost, and limits to legal protection. Bonds are also favored over banks in cultural environments of greater uncertainty avoidance, masculinity, long-term orientation, and indulgence and less individualism. Overall, we attribute our results to culture and institutional quality together influencing debt structure, particularly by impacting attitudes toward public monitoring. Our results will be of great interest to researchers interested in the legal, social, and cultural environments of emerging markets.     

Participation in risky asset markets and propensity for financial planning: a missing link?

This study examines whether the association between financial literacy and participation in risky asset markets is robust to variation on a more innate level: the propensity for financial planning. I find that individuals’ propensity for financial planning is strongly positively related to stock market participation as well as membership in a voluntary workplace retirement savings scheme. This result holds when controlling for financial literacy and a range of demographic and control variables in a multivariate regression setting. Importantly, the positive association between financial literacy and risky asset market participation also persists, suggesting that these two variables operate through separate channels.     

Acquirers’ earnings management ahead of stock-for-stock bids in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets

The accounting literature has found evidence that acquirers in stock-for-stock M&A have typically managed earnings upwards ahead of a bid. Other literatures have concluded that, when stock prices are high and rising, M&A is higher, more M&A is financed with stock, market sentiment and stockholders’ perceptions of information appear to change, and in these circumstances new (arbitrage) motivations for M&A emerge. This paper revisits earnings management ahead of M&A in the light of these findings, comparing experience in ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ markets. It finds that such earnings management is more pronounced in hot markets; that only in such markets are positive discretionary accruals commonly associated with positive abnormal returns on the announcement of earnings; and that in such markets – against the expectations from signalling theory – these positive returns are not reversed on announcement of a stock-for-stock bid. The results suggest that the economic benefits achieved by engaging in earnings management during hot markets are indeed significant: in hot markets, we estimate that on average share acquirers engage in working capital accrual management equivalent to over a third of the average acquirer’s return on total assets in that year; and that this earnings management is associated with increases in market value which are statistically and economically significant, enabling the bidder to secure control of the target with fewer shares.     

Entry and capital structure mimicking in concentrated markets: The role of incumbents’ financial disclosures

We examine whether the public availability of product market incumbents' financial disclosures leads to greater capital structure mimicking of incumbents by entrants. Exploiting a change in disclosure enforcement for German private firms in the mid-2000s, we find entrant-incumbent mimicking rises substantially in concentrated markets once incumbents' financial statements are publicly available. Additional tests exploring potential mechanisms are more consistent with interfirm learning underlying the effect than alternative channels. Our findings shed light on the effects of competitor financial statement disclosure on private firms’ initial financing decisions and highlight how capital structure dependencies among peer firms arise.     

An encyclopedia for stock markets? Wikipedia searches and stock returns

We present empirical evidence that collective investor behavior can be inferred from large-scale Wikipedia search data for individual-level stocks. Drawing upon Shannon transfer entropy, a model-free measure that considers any kind of statistical dependence between two time series, we quantify the statistical information flow between daily company-specific Wikipedia searches and stock returns for a sample of 447 stocks from 2008 to 2017. The resulting stock-wise measures on information transmission are then used as a signal within a hypothetical trading strategy. The results evidence the predictive power of Wikipedia searches and are in line with the previously documented notion of buying pressure revealed by online investor attention and the trading patterns of retail investors.     

Do policies and institutions matter for pre-tax income inequality? Cross-country evidence

International Tax and Public Finance - Do policies and institutions matter for pre-tax income inequality? I build an annual panel of 43 countries for the period 1980–2016 to document...     

What matters and for which firms for corporate governance in emerging markets? Evidence from Brazil (and other BRIK countries)

A central issue in corporate governance research is the extent to which “good” governance practices are universal (one size mostly fits all) or instead depend on country and firm characteristics. We report evidence that supports the second view. We first conduct a case study of Brazil, in which we survey Brazilian firms' governance practices at year-end 2004, construct a corporate governance index, and show that the index, as well as subindices for ownership structure, board procedure, and minority shareholder rights, predicts higher lagged Tobin's q. In contrast to other studies, greater board independence predicts lower Tobin's q. Firm characteristics also matter: governance predicts market value for nonmanufacturing (but not manufacturing) firms, small (but not large) firms, and high-growth (but not low-growth) firms. We then extend prior studies of India, Korea, and Russia, and compare those countries to Brazil, to assess which aspects of governance matter in which countries, and for which types of firms. Our “multi-country” results suggest that country characteristics strongly influence both which aspects of governance predict firm market value, and at which firms that association is found. They support a flexible approach to governance, with ample room for firm choice.     

Is cross-listing a panacea for improving earnings quality? The case of H- and B-share firms in China

This study examines whether cross-listed Chinese H- and B-share firms exhibit higher earnings quality relative to non-cross-listed A-share firms based on seven accounting- and market-based earnings quality attributes, including accrual quality, persistence, predictability, smoothness, conservatism, timeliness and value relevance. We find that earnings quality does not differ between cross-listed and non-cross listed firms in terms of accrual quality, timeliness and value relevance, and that H- and B-share firms report earnings with lower quality in terms of persistence and predictability. We also find that the B-firms report smoother earnings, while the H-firms report more conservative earnings. The results of a battery of cross-sectional, endogeneity and sensitivity analyses either confirm our primary findings of no earnings quality difference or reveal lower earnings quality for cross-listed firms than for non-cross-listed firms. Considering that cross-listing in China is primarily driven by government decisions, our findings suggest that, without proper incentives, cross-listing is not likely to be a panacea for higher quality financial reporting.     

Turn-of-the-month and intramonth effects in government bond markets: Is there a role for macroeconomic news?

This paper focuses on the turn-of-the-month (TOM) and intramonth anomalies in government bond returns. In particular, we examine whether the TOM and intramonth effects exist in government bond markets, and moreover, whether these anomalies are related to the release of macroeconomic news as suggested in recent stock market studies. Using data on the 2-year and 10-year US Treasury Notes and German government bonds, we document a modest TOM effect in government bond returns. This effect does not disappear after controlling for the release of macroeconomic announcements, thereby suggesting that the origin of the TOM effect is not necessarily the same across asset classes.     

Do auditing standards improve the accounting disclosure and information environment of public companies? Evidence from the emerging markets in China

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the implementation of a set of new auditing standards in 1996 on the information environment in the emerging markets in China. Because the implementation of such standards can increase the quality and/or quantity of accounting disclosures, it can be conceptualized as an improvement in the information environment of public companies. We investigate the improvement in accounting disclosure and information environment from both the market perspective and the accounting perspective. First, consistent with the information economics literature (e.g., [Holthausen, R., & Verrecchia, R., (1990). The effect of informedness and consensus on price and volume behavior. The Accounting Review, 65, 191–208]), we find that companies experience a significant increase in trading volume and price volatility subsequent to the implementation of the standards. Second, consistent with the literature on earnings management (e.g., [Chen, C. W. K., & Yuan, H. Q., (2004). Earnings management and capital resource allocation: evidence from China's accounting-based regulation of right issue. The Accounting Review, 79, 645–665, Jian, M., & Wong, T. J., (2004). Earnings management and tunneling through related party transactions: evidence from Chinese corporate groups. Working Paper, Nanyang Technological University and Hong Kong University of Science and Technology]), we find a decrease in earnings management and, hence, an increase in quality of earnings. Finally, we find a decrease in the synchronicity of stock prices and, hence, an increase in the quality of firm-specific information available to investors, which is consistent with the literature on price synchronicity (e.g., [Morck, R., Yeung, B., & Yu, W., (2000). The information content of stock markets: why do emerging markets have synchronous stock price movements? Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 215–260]). Our results have significant implications for standard setters, regulators, researchers, managers, and investors in general and those in the emerging markets in particular.     

Capital requirements and bank behavior in the UK: Are there lessons for international capital standards?

The financial crisis prompted widespread interest in developing a better understanding of how capital regulation drives bank behavior. This paper uses a unique, comprehensive database of regulatory capital requirements on all UK banks to examine their effects on capital, lending and balance sheet management behavior. We find that capital requirements that include firm-specific, time-varying add-ons set by supervisors affect banks’ desired capital ratios and that resulting adjustments to capital and lending depend on the gap between actual and target ratios. We use these results to measure the effects of a capital regime that includes features similar to those embedded in the UK framework. Our results suggest that countercyclical capital requirements may be less effective in slowing credit activity when banks can readily satisfy them with lower-quality (lower-costing) capital elements versus higher-quality common equity. Given the size of the UK banking sector and the global nature of many of the largest institutions in the UK banking sector, the results have implications for the ongoing debate surrounding the design and calibration of international capital standards.