Understanding domestic savings: an empirical approach

ABSTRACT

There are two unusual and important features in the evolution of the savings rate in Chile. First, the economy increased the average savings rate by 11 percentage points in the period 1985–2013 compared to 1960–1984, mainly due to a large change in private savings rate (10 percentage points), and an additional 1 percentage point from the public sector. The second feature is related to the change in the composition of private savings. After several years of nearly no corporate savings, this component became an important part of total savings reaching an average of almost 10% of Gross National Disposable Income (GNDI) during the period 1986–2012. Our results show that the 1984 tax reform, the boost in the marginal productivity of capital and the deepening of the financial market were the main drivers that explain the dramatic increase in corporate savings. We also found that the reduction in personal income tax after the tax reform and the higher income per capita growth helped to explain the increase in household savings, while the structural balance rule helped to explain the increase in public savings.     

股指期货套期保值效率比较研究——基于沪深300股指期货与新华富时A5指数期货

文章基于我国股票型基金十大重仓股构建投资组合,并利用沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的日数据对这两种股指期货的套期保值效率进行比较研究,以探究两者在套期保值效率上的差异和造成差异产生的原因。在利用OLS、VECM和ECM-BGRACH等静态和动态套期保值模型和基于风险最小化的套期保值绩效指标对沪深300股指期货与新华富时A50指数期货的套期保值效率进行研究后发现,在静态最优套保比、时变最优套保比和套期保值绩效指标的比较中,新华富时A50指数期货都要优于沪深300股指期货。这种套期保值效率上的差异主要来自于两个金融工具间的合约与交易规则的差别。建议通过设立适当时间的晚间电子盘交易,并允许金融机构在规定的份额内进行期指套利交易,以提升沪深300股指期货在套期保值市场功能上的效率。     

The internalization of externalities in the production of electricity: Willingness to pay for the attributes of a policy for renewable energy

This paper investigates the willingness to pay of a sample of residents of Bath, England, for a hypothetical program that promotes the production of renewable energy. Using choice experiments, we assess the preferences of respondents for a policy for the promotion of renewable energy that: (i) contributes to the internalization of the external costs caused by fossil fuel technologies; (ii) affects the short-term security of energy supply; (iii) has an impact on the employment in the energy sector; and (iv) leads to an increase in the electricity bill. Responses to the choice questions show that our respondents are in favour of a policy for renewable energy and that they attach a high value to a policy that brings private and public benefits in terms of climate change and energy security benefits. Our results therefore suggest that consumers are willing to pay a higher price for electricity in order to internalize the external costs in terms of energy security, climate change and air pollution caused by the production of electricity.     

Combining Contingent Valuation and Choice Experiments. A Forestry Application in Spain

When many good variants are to be valued, like in several forest management programs which differ in the attribute levels, the Contingent Valuation Method may not be a practical option, given the cost and time involved to value each variant separately. There are at least three alternative procedures in such situations. One (i) is to apply an attribute based valuation method like a Choice Experiment (CE); another (ii) is to conduct a CVM and a CE exercise and estimate a joint model; a third one (iii) is to use the CVM estimates to value a base scenario, and then use the CE results to adjust the CVM estimates for any new different scenario. A numerical simulation and an empirical application to an afforestation program in Spain show that the latter is the procedure that yields closer values to the CVM estimations, followed by (ii).      

金融危机中的衍生工具——基于20世纪80年代以来金融危机视角的思考

本文从20世纪80年代以来金融危机的不同特性对比分析入手,对衍生工具在金融危机中作用的二重性进行了研究。指出衍生工具除了具有引导资金从发达资本市场向发展中经济流动过程中的建构性作用,同时在诱导金融危机的发生和加剧方面还具有助动性作用。从衍生工具的产生和发展,降低了经济运作的透明度、削弱了金融管理当局的监管、威胁到固定汇率体系的稳定性、提高了系统风险和感染风险、进而加速并深化危机等不同角度,对衍生工具在金融危机中的负面作用作了较为具体的论证。     

Risk allocation and uncertainty: some unpleasant outcomes of financial innovation

Financial innovation introduces the possibility of exchange on wider time-events sets. In this way, market incompleteness should be reduced with an overall advantage. The existence of this advantage also depends on other elements, like the degree of market competition, the level of information, and the presence of inefficiencies generated by moral hazard. One kind of behavior which has been widely common among banks consists in the reduction of risk taking in relation to credit activity. Credit risk tends to be covered through the packaging of credits into securities. This situation means that since the bank is not shouldering the risk, it does not invest in the acquisition of knowledge regarding the borrower, but only regarding his/her generic characteristics which are reflected in the evaluation of the assets in which the credits are packaged. Moreover, financial innovation was developed, in particular by investment banks, with non-standardized products, exchanged over-the-counter, and substantially lacking secondary markets. The greatest problems derive from the low liquidity of these products and from the uncertainty over their returns. This is why it would be good to stimulate the introduction of standardized products, whose risks are easy to determine, to be exchanged on organized markets, instead of complex products, which are substantially illiquid and exchanged over-the-counter.

刍议我国发展融资租赁业的路径选择

融资租赁在经济发展中的作用越来越重要,是一个拥有广阔发展前景的新兴行业.但其在我国的起步较晚,而且一直没有真正发展起来,主要原因是缺少税收优惠政策、缺少资金来源、欠租问题得不到解决和企业自身等原因,而造成这些原因的关键还是缺少对融资租赁业发展有利的政策和法规.宏观政策环境的改变是促进我国融资租赁业发展的根本途径,本文就我国融资租赁业的发展提出可供选择的现实路径.     

试论我国资产证券化的模式选择

资产证券化作为一项重要的金融创新，在我国有其特殊的现实意义。文章首先对资产证券化的运作机理进行了阐述，随后回顾了资产证券化在我国的实践，并针对我国的具体情况，分析了我国资产证券化应选择的模式及存在问题，最后提出对策建议。     

Using choice question formats to determine compensable values: The case of a landfill-siting process

Siting noxious facilities, such as community landfills, is a challenging problem for local planners who recognize the importance of economic efficiency and equity, political acceptance, and meeting federal regulatory standards. Meeting these criteria requires technical and socio-economic analyses in conjunction with public input. Planners may also recognize that political acceptance requires compensation for the host community, either in the form of monetary or in-kind transfers. Following Breffle and Rowe [Breffle, W.S., Rowe. R.D., 2002. Comparing choice question formats for evaluating natural resource tradeoffs. Land Econ. 78 (2), 298–314], we use a “resource-to-resource” paired-comparison survey method to estimate compensatory values associated with an in-county landfill for both the host and non-host communities. Our results indicate that while a host-community household's minimum willingness to accept payment for hosting a landfill may exceed a non-host-community household's maximum willingness to pay, a large difference in population sizes between the two communities enables the landfill to pass a Kaldor potential compensation test.     

刍议居民金融行为变化与商业银行个人金融业务改革

随着人民生活水平的不断提高,居民金融行为由单一储蓄型转变为综合金融型,由存款获息型转变为投资理财型,由单纯生活型转变为混合经营型,由积累消费型转变为贷款消费型,由网点的存取型转变为网络的划转型.但目前,我国商业银行个人金融业务还不适应居民金融行为的变化,商业银行必须采取深化体制改革,加快品种创新,实施流程再造等措施以适应居民金融行为的变化.     

Quantifying public preferences for agri-environmental policy in Scotland: A comparison of methods

This paper compares two methods for determining policy priorities for reform of Scottish agricultural support. Multifunctional agriculture attempts to establish a new balance between traditional commodity support and payment for the production of non-market goods and services that are increasingly demanded by the public. Supplying non-market goods presents particular problems for optimal policy design, not least the elicitation of consumer demand for those goods. From public focus groups, a range of attributes was derived as central to the Scottish public’s preferences for future agri-environmental reform. This information was then combined in two separate survey methods using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and choice experiments (CE). Both applications suggest that the public has defined preferences and a willingness to pay (using general income taxation) to affect changes beyond the status quo, and that policy payments should be targeted towards both environmental and social benefits. The divergent preference orderings derived from the alternative methods can be considered in the light of previous methodological debates on question framing, bounded rationality and respondent uncertainty. We speculate about the validity of alternative methodologies for informing particular policy questions.     

二十世纪九十年代以来西方金融发展理论评析

现代金融发展理论是通过专门研究金融与经济发展之间的关系而展开的，进入九十年代，通过对金融自由化改革的反思，有对金融深化理论或补充和完善的，也有经济学家用与传统方法不同的思路进行研究的，较有影响的有金融约束论、金融效率论等。     

Information, flexibility, and value added

Information technologies used in production activities facilitate the acquisition of more detailed and more timely information concerning the state of the production environment. While the effects of distribution shifts on decisions under uncertainty have been much studied, less is known about the effects of information acquisition on revenue generation and choice. In this article we consider the firm level impacts of information acquisition on revenue, on input use, and on profitability. A choice made under uncertainty depends upon the distribution of a random parameter but not upon its realization, while the choice depends only on the realization when this realization is known. Impacts are determined by interactions between second and third cross derivatives of the primal revenue function.     

Information, flexibility, and value added

Information technologies used in production activities facilitate the acquisition of more detailed and more timely information concerning the state of the production environment. While the effects of distribution shifts on decisions under uncertainty have been much studied, less is known about the effects of information acquisition on revenue generation and choice. In this article we consider the firm level impacts of information acquisition on revenue, on input use, and on profitability. A choice made under uncertainty depends upon the distribution of a random parameter but not upon its realization, while the choice depends only on the realization when this realization is known. Impacts are determined by interactions between second and third cross derivatives of the primal revenue function.     

流动性供给、最后贷款人与金融系统稳定:一个次优选择

中央银行维护金融稳定的能力建立在其能够为市场提供流动性这一特有能力的基础之上。事实上,金融危机期间,各国央行一方面通过调整自身的资产负债表而创造流动性以支持金融系统正常运转;一方面动用最后贷款人职能对个别机构进行救助。需要注意的是,大规模流动性供给和救助行为并非是\"最优\"的选择,其对经济金融失衡的影响、对公平效率的损害,以及由此带来的通胀压力和政策外溢效应不容忽视。     

Willingness to accept compensation for the environmental risks of oil transport on the Amazon: A choice modeling experiment

This paper looks at the question of whether subsistence level/indigenous people place a value on the preservation of ecosystems independent of direct impacts of environmental change, such as impacts on their production activities. The economics literature generally suggests that non-use values don't exist among the poor and in the informal sector of the economy. We examine this issue through a choice modeling experiment. A survey was conducted of rainforest communities who live on the banks of the Amazon River (Rio Solimões), in the vicinity of proposed oil and gas pipelines. The data were analyzed in the choice modeling framework, revealing relatively high amounts of compensation that were necessary in order to accept the potential ecosystem damages associated with oil transport, even if the people were completely compensated for direct damages such as loss of access to productive resources. These results suggest that environmental quality is important for its own sake, a result that is very different from the implicit assumption among many economists.