Relative income position,individual and social income satisfaction,and income inequality

Summary The survival probability as estimated by an individual is,ceteris paribus supposed to depend on his relative income position in a set of reference incomes. The relative income position is thus defined in close connection to the preference formation theory of Kapteyn. It is shown that then this survival probability, called ‘utility,’ may be equated to the relative income position. A nice result of this approach is the possibility to formulate a utilitarian welfare function, which leads to the definition of income inequality measures. It is shown that the use of sets of reference incomes may lead to considerably smaller measured inequality.     

Choice via grouping procedures

In this paper, we consider a natural procedure of decision‐making, the grouping choice methods, which leads to a kind of bounded rational choice. In this procedure a decision‐maker first divides the set of available alternatives into some groups and in each group she chooses the best element (winner) for her preference relation. Then, among the winners in the first round, she selects the best one as her final choice. We characterize grouping choice methods in three different ways. First, we show that a choice function is a grouping choice method if and only if it is a rational shortlist method (Manzini and Mariotti 2007 ) in which the first rationale is transitive. Second, grouping choice methods are axiomatically characterized by means of a new axiom called elimination, in addition to two well‐known axioms, expansion and weak WARP (Manzini and Mariotti 2007 ). Third, grouping choice methods are also characterized by a weak version of path independence.     

On the demographic realism of the Ricardian theory of public finance

Summary The possibility of public debt-neutrality is discussed for countries experiencing demographic changes. The heterogeneity of agents plays a decisive role in destroying Ricardian equivalence of public finance. In addition to the usual explanatory factors of non-neutrality, such as distortionary taxation, public debt is not equivalent to current taxation as a consequence of (1) disconnected dynasties, (2) uncertain lifetimes, (3) diverging birth rates, (4) international migration, (5) population growth uncertainty, (6) diverging rates of time preference, and (7) capital market imperfections. The paper concludes that thepure Ricardian model of public finance serves a purpose as a standard of argument for the more realistic models of public finance.Comments by Gerbert Hebbink, Evert van Imhoff, Herman Vollebergh and members of the Department of Public Finance are gratefully acknowledged.     

A likelihood-Based Approximate Solution to the Incidental Parameter Problem in Dynamic Nonlinear Models with Multiple Effects

Abstract

We discuss a modified objective function strategy to obtain estimators without bias to order 1/T in nonlinear dynamic panel models with multiple effects. Estimation proceeds from a bias-corrected objective function relative to some target infeasible criterion. We consider a determinant-based approach for likelihood settings, and a trace-based approach, which is not restricted to the likelihood setup. Both approaches depend exclusively on the Hessian and the outer product of the scores of the fixed effects. They produce simple and transparent corrections even in models with multiple effects. We analyze the asymptotic properties of both types of estimators when n and T grow at the same rate, and show that they are asymptotically normal and centered at the truth. Our strategy is to develop a theory for general bias-corrected estimating equations, so that we can obtain asymptotic results for a specific bias correction method using the first-order conditions.     

A nash equilibrium model of campaign spending

Conclusion This paper has presented a Nash equilibrium model of campaign spending. The equilibrium is always stable and it possesses sensible comparative static properties. Spending in equilibrium depends on the scale parameter of the vote-share production function and on the intensities of preference for marginal vote share by the two candidates. Thus, campaigns which turn into spending wars are characterized by large values of both candidates' intensities of preference for vote share.     

The Unit Root Hypothesis for Aggregate Output May Not Hold after All: New Evidence from a Panel Stationarity Test with Multiple Breaks

This paper investigates the hypothesis of a unit root in output for four panels of real gross domestic product (GDP) and real GDP per capita series in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). For that purpose, a panel stationarity test is employed that assumes a highly flexible trend function by incorporating an unknown number of breaks in level and slope. This analysis renders clear-cut evidence in favor of regime-wise trend stationarity in OECD output for the three data sets of annual data, while evidence of nonstationarity is found for the data set based on quarterly data, which is composed of only seven countries over the shortest time span. Overall, the results herein stand in stark contrast to previously published results that do not control for the existence of structural change in the trend function, but accord well with those that employ panel unit root tests that allow for a single homogeneous break in the trend function.     

Uniformly bounded sufficient sets and quasi‐extreme social welfare functions

The set of alternatives is infinite. If the social welfare function is transitive‐valued and minimal sufficient sets are uniformly bounded, then there are arbitrarily large finite subsets of the feasible set, and a rich sub‐domain of profiles, within which a reduction in the scope of someone's dictatorial power must be accompanied by an equal increase in the fraction of the pairs that are socially ordered without consulting anyone's preferences.     

Estimating the Effect of Air Quality: Spatial versus Traditional Hedonic Price Models

Empirical studies of hedonic housing prices show that the spatial maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is preferable to the traditional ordinary least squares (OLS) hedonic method. Current computing capabilities restrict the MLE method to relatively small data sets. This paper circumvents this limitation by coupling the spatial MLE method with block bootstrapping, a form of Monte Carlo simulation that accounts for spatially dependent data. Blocks are created based on monthly and census tract information for resampling. For each month, we obtained 50 resamples of 750 observations from a data set of 15,727 residential properties to compare OLS and MLE empirical results. We find that the spatial MLE method consistently outperforms the traditional OLS method under these simulated conditions and that air quality matters irrespective of the method used.     

Canonical interpretation of propositions as events

This paper establishes conditions under which Savage's (1954) informal interpretation of subjective probabilities as measures of confidence in the truth of propositions can be formally justified. For this purpose we construct, for any given propositional language, a canonical state space such that each proposition a of the language is associated with a unique event A defined on this state space. As our main result we establish a one–one onto correspondence between the canonical state space and the set of all truth conditions for the propositional logic such that proposition a is exactly true at every truth condition that corresponds to some state in A. According to our approach, an agent's degree of confidence in the truth of a proposition can, therefore, be interpreted as his or her subjective probability that some truth condition holds at which the proposition is true. Such an interpretation, however, is only valid for agents with unlimited powers of logical reasoning.     

Are more children better than one? Evidence from a lab experiment of decision making

This paper examines the impacts of siblings on people's social preference, risk attitude and time preference with a data set from a large-scale lab experiment. Employing the variation of fine rates under One-Child Policy for excess birth in different regions as instrument to address the endogeneity of whether having siblings, we find that sibling's role mainly focuses on shaping people's social preference that subjects with siblings demand less as responders in ultimatum game and behave more cooperatively in sequential prisoner's dilemma. This conclusion survives through several robustness checks. Our further result suggests that more sibling interactions and less parental expectations are two potential mechanisms through which siblings play a role in making people more prosocial. Our findings point to a positive externality along with Two-Child Policy which is widely neglected in both policy evaluation and relevant theory such as quantity-quality theory, and provide implications for the fertility policy such as the recent Three-Child Policy in China and beyond.     

Expected-utility-consistent mean-variance preference functions with perverse derivatives

It is well-known that if every attainable gamble x can be completely characterized by its mean μ and variance σ², then expected utility is given by a mean-variance preference function: EU (x) = V (μ, σ²). It is shown here thatV _σ ² can be positive even if U″<0 and thatV _μ can be negative even if U′>0. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the family of attainable gambles are given to rule out these possibilities.     

Multi-province comparisons of digital financial inclusion performance in China: A group ranking method with preference analysis

The Peking University Digital Financial Inclusion Index of China (PKU-DFIIC) measures the digital financial inclusion (DFI) performance in China from three dimensions: breadth of coverage, depth of use and level of digitalization. This paper extends the PKU-DFIIC to measure and compare the provincial DFI performance in terms of proposing a group ranking method with preference analysis. Specifically, we identify a panel of experts by comprehensively considering all possible importance orders of three dimensions, and formulate a preliminary group decision matrix. Then the preference analysis is carried out with respect to preferential difference and preferential priority. A revised group decision matrix is derived with the expert-specific ranking as the inputs. Finally, a group ranking method is given based on the half-quadratic theory, in conjunction with the consensus index and trust level denoting the level of agreement and reliability of the group ranking. An empirical study using the PKU-DFIIC data from 2016 to 2020 is conducted to demonstrate our method, along with the spatial-temporal analysis of the results and a set of policy implications to promote the DFI development in China.     

使用外语能降低经济决策偏差吗?来自实验室的证据

文章旨在检验使用外语对经济决策的两类核心问题,即不确定性（风险、模糊性）决策和跨期决策的偏差是否产生影响。两组实验被试被随机分到母语组和外语组,分别采用母语和外语完成一系列决策任务。实验结果发现使用外语能够显著降低与风险相关的决策偏差,但并不能降低与模糊性和跨期决策有关的决策偏差。具体而言,在与框架效应有关的风险决策任务中,使用外语显著减少了决策的框架效应;与母语组相比,在与小额金钱、大额金钱有关的风险决策问题中,外语组的反射效应消失了;外语组的阿莱行为也显著减少。在模糊性决策任务中,母语组与外语组在决策偏差上没有显著差异。在跨期决策任务中,使用外语对个体的焦虑程度没有显著的影响,但显著增加了双曲贴现偏好。这说明风险、模糊性和跨期决策所涉及的认知过程存在差异,使用外语对决策产生的作用具有复杂性。     

Some rationalizability results for dynamic games

We study the relation between dynamical systems describing the equilibrium behavior in dynamic games and those resulting from (single‐player) dynamic optimization problems. More specifically, we derive conditions under which the dynamics generated by a model in one of these two classes can be rationalized by a model from the other class. We study this question under different assumptions about which fundamentals (e.g. technology, utility functions and time‐preference) should be preserved by the rationalization. One interesting result is that rationalizing the equilibrium dynamics of a symmetric dynamic game by a dynamic optimization problem that preserves the technology and the utility function requires a higher degree of impatience compared to that of the players in the game.     

安徽风险资本运作模式选择研究

将风险企业成长的特点与安徽经济发展现状相结合,成立由政府发起设立的具有多种资本来源的风险投资公司.在多元治理的框架下,完善经理人的产生和发现机制,建立健全经理人的内外约束与激励机制,普通股和优先股组合监督管理,形成互相牵制、平衡发展的新型治理结构模式.在投资对象的选择上,依据全面分散投资、分散风险的原则,将资金合理布局、适时调整,并通过退出模式的选择,平衡现金流,避免集中投资、集中退出带来的冲击.     

Express Yourself: Why Managers' Disclosure Tone Varies Across Time and What Investors Learn from It

We argue that volatility in a manager's disclosure tone across time should be a function of two components: (i) the firm's innate operating risk and (ii) the extent to which the manager's disclosure transparently reflects that risk. Consistent with this argument, we find that both operating risk and disclosure transparency are important determinants of disclosure tone volatility. We then examine whether investors incorporate the incremental information provided by disclosure tone volatility into their assessments of firm risk. If disclosure tone volatility primarily provides investors with incremental information about a firm's operating risk, we should find a positive association between tone volatility and market-based assessments of risk. On the other hand, if disclosure tone volatility primarily provides investors with incremental information about a manager's disclosure transparency, we should find a negative association between tone volatility and market-based assessments of risk. Consistent with an operating risk explanation, we find a positive association between disclosure tone volatility and market-based assessments of firm risk after controlling for a comprehensive set of proxies for operating risk and transparency. We find little support for an information risk explanation, even when we examine multiple measures specifically designed to capture information risk. Taken together, our results suggest that although disclosure tone volatility is a function of both a firm's operating risk and a manager's disclosure transparency, investors appear to respond as if disclosure tone volatility only provides incremental information about a firm's operating risk.     

Relative deprivation,time preference,and economic growth

We study the growth process among a large group of economies where consumption relative to a reference group determines the discount factor of the household agents. We characterize all possible balanced growth paths and their stability properties. The model can explain why two economies having similar production technologies, preferences, and total factor productivity growth rates can differ in labor supply behavior and have diverging growth paths depending on their initial conditions. Numerical analysis of the model suggests that growth path divergence is plausible based on cross-country differences in savings rates. History dependence on time preference also generates realistic transitional dynamics.     

The Max‐Min Group Contest: Weakest‐link (Group) All‐Pay Auction

We investigate a group all‐pay auction in which each group's effort is represented by the minimum among the effort levels exerted by the group members and the prize is a group‐specific public good. We fully characterize the symmetric equilibria for two groups. There are four types of equilibria: the pure strategy equilibria in which all (active) players exert the same effort; the semi‐pure strategy equilibria in which the players in a group play the same pure strategy whereas those in the other group play the same mixed strategy; the nondegenerate mixed strategy equilibria with continuous support; and the nondegenerate mixed strategy equilibria with discontinuous support. We then analyze a general contest with n groups.     

Estimation of Hybrid Phillips Curve: A Source of Conflicting Empirical Results

Recent empirical studies of the hybrid Phillips curve draw conflicting conclusions about the relative role of forward‐looking behavior and the role of marginal cost as the driving force. It is difficult to identify the source of the conflicting results in past studies because of differences in the measure of inflation, the estimation equation, and the instrumental variables. This article presents evidence that a source of the conflict is the use of suboptimal sets of instruments. When the optimum set of instruments is selected by using the L₂‐boosting method from the principal components of a large number of valid instruments, all conflicting conclusions in previous studies vanish. Regardless of the choice of inflation measure and estimation equation, we identify the dominant role of forward‐looking behavior and a significant effect of the real marginal cost on inflation.     

城乡义务教育服务非均衡问题研究——基于“投入-产出-受益”三维视角的实证分析

本文基于“投入-产出-受益”的三维视角,通过构建结构方程模型,实证分析城乡义务教育服务投入差距、产出差距和受益非均衡的相互关系。结果显示：城乡地区普通初中和小学师资力量的差距以及义务教育服务的生产效率差距,是导致城乡义务教育服务产出差距的重要原因;而城乡义务教育服务的产出差距以及城乡居民义务教育服务的偏好差异,又是导致城乡义务教育服务受益非均衡的重要原因。据此,本文认为,应着力改善农村教师的工作和生活条件,吸引人才充实农村地区的师资队伍;同时,进一步提高农村教育资源的利用效率,并增强农村居民对义务教育服务的偏好强度,最终实现从多维的角度推进城乡义务教育服务的统筹和均等化。