Using GDSS to examine the future European automobile industry

Group decision support systems (GDSS) are interactive computer software that supports both group communication and decision making. A prototype GDSS named DELAWARE, was applied to collect judgment and opinion from experts, on the future business environment of the automobile industry in Europe. This article describes the communication processes and the decision-making content embodied within the DELAWARE application     

澳门保险业概况与启示

澳门作为中国的一个特别行政区,一个微型的经济体,其保险活动也有期自身的特点。澳门保险业随经济的发展取得了快速的发展壮大,文章对澳门的保险从业人员和公司、监管体制与活动管制等情况做了全面介绍,进而指出对我国内地保险业的借鉴意义。     

论保险的本质与保险业在金融行业中的角色定位

保险的本质是以资金解决了经济社会运行过程中要素的短缺与需求之间的矛盾,实现了风险的分散和财富的调剂,保障了经济社会生活的稳定运行。从保险的本质出发,明确保险业在金融行业中的角色定位,是保险业实现科学发展的前提。在当前经济金融环境不确定因素增加,行业发展尚不充分的情况下,保险业偏离保障发展方向可能带来潜在的风险。只有坚持保险保障的发展方向,立足于专业化经营,不断创新,进一步加强监管,才能真正实现保险事业又好又快的科学发展。     

Clustering technique for risk classification and prediction of claim costs in the automobile insurance industry

This paper considers the problem of predicting claim costs in the automobile insurance industry. The first stage involves classifying policy holders according to their perceived risk, followed by modelling the claim costs within each risk group. Two methods are compared for the risk classification stage: a data‐driven approach based on hierarchical clustering, and a previously published heuristic method that groups policy holders according to pre‐defined factors. Regression is used to model the expected claim costs within a risk group. A case study is presented utilizing real data, and both risk classification methods are compared according to a variety of accuracy measures. The results of the case study show the benefits of employing a data‐driven approach. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

保险服务业产业内贸易及其影响因素的实证分析

本文对美国与其22个贸易伙伴国的保险服务业产业内贸易水平进行度量,并且使用Grubel-Lloyd IIT指数,建立2002年~2006年面板数据模型对保险服务业产业内贸易的影响因素进行经验分析。研究结果表明:市场开放度和跨国公司内部贸易流与保险服务业产业内贸易存在显著的正相关,市场规模差异与保险服务业产业内贸易存在显著的负相关。人均收入差异、市场不平衡度和对外直接投资均对保险服务业产业内贸易水平的影响不显著。     

The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry

We test the hypothesis that practicing enterprise risk management (ERM) reduces firms’ cost of reducing risk. Adoption of ERM represents a radical paradigm shift from the traditional method of managing risks individually to managing risks collectively allowing ERM-adopting firms to better recognize natural hedges, prioritize hedging activities towards the risks that contribute most to the total risk of the firm, and optimize the evaluation and selection of available hedging instruments. We hypothesize that these advantages allow ERM-adopting firms to produce greater risk reduction per dollar spent. Our hypothesis further predicts that, after implementing ERM, firms experience profit maximizing incentives to lower risk. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms adopting ERM experience a reduction in stock return volatility. We also find that the reduction in return volatility for ERM-adopting firms becomes stronger over time. Further, we find that operating profits per unit of risk (ROA/return volatility) increase post ERM adoption.     

2011年宏观经济展望及其对保险业的影响

2010年,我国经济运行已基本摆脱国际金融危机的负面冲击,开始进入良性发展格局,但通货膨胀高企给经济增长带来一定不确定性。我国政府及时调整货币政策,遏制房价、物价水平的过快上涨,稳定了经济增速,降低了经济金融风险。2011年,国家将实施积极稳健、审慎灵活的宏观经济政策,着力改善民生,完善公共服务,提升居民消费,积极应对通胀,保持经济平稳较快发展。在此背景下,保险业应科学判断行业发展形势,加快推进行业发展方式转变,逐步完善风险防范机制,不断提高经营管理效益,推进行业健康、可持续发展。     

The evolution of the Australian life insurance industry

The life insurance industry in Australia has traditionally been an important source of long term finance for both the public and private sector. However, very little historical analysis has been undertaken into an industry that constitutes a fundamental part of the economy's financial sector. The present climate of deregulation has initiated an irrevocable process of change within the industry. To comprehend the full implications of this change it is necessary to have an understanding of how the industry has evolved. This paper seeks to provide a background account of the growth of the life insurance industry in Australia highlighting the influences that have determined the structure of the industry.     

基于职业教育的保险人才培养模式探讨

中国保险业的发展带来了保险人才需求结构性变化,而保险职业教育是我国保险业破除人才需求瓶颈的有效途径。为了完善保险职业教育人才培养模式,必须构建以保险人才市场需求为导向的课程体系,建立以工作过程为中心的教学模式,完善以职业能力训练为重点的实训教学体系,建设以双师结构为标准的师资队伍。     

Forging relationships with services: The antecedents that have an impact on behavioural outcomes in the life insurance industry

The extent to which service quality is linked to satisfaction, value and behavioural outcomes continues to be debated in the literature. This research investigated two models involving the linkages between service quality, satisfaction, perceived value, repurchase intention and willingness to recommend to others. The life insurance industry was chosen as the industry for investigation since it is virtually a pure service with little tangibility and high credence properties. Data were collected in Singapore in response to concerns about broadening understanding of these variables cross-culturally. Results of path analysis indicate that service quality has an indirect relationship with behavioural outcome measures via satisfaction and value. The study found that satisfaction was positively associated with customers' re-purchase intentions but its relationship with customers' willingness to recommend to others was relatively weak. This finding has important marketing implications as word-of-mouth has previously been found to have significant influence on customers' purchase decisions.     

Economists in the insurance industry

Conclusions The emergence of economists in the insurance industry is only a symptom of a profound change in the market reality which the industry, especially in the U.K. with its worldwide ramifications of business interests, is facing now. This change, brought about by a sudden appearance of purely economic aspects of insurance activities, links up firmly the insurance proper with solely financial operations of the industry. It also widens very considerably both the range of factors relevant to underwriting and overall policy decisions and extends the time dimension of business analysis. It is this complexity of the background to the decision-making process that is responsible for a growing trend towards corporate planning within which economists have a vital role to play. Senior Political Economist, “Commercial Union”     

Health insurance and its impact on the survival rates of breast cancer patients in Synthea

The goal of this project was to build policy modules in a synthetic health system to analyze how healthcare policy impacts breast cancer survival rates. To do any inference regarding healthcare policy, researchers need secure and protected health data, which are restricted by privacy laws and interoperability issues. Synthetic health systems generate and help investigate health data without concerns of violating legal restrictions (HIPAA). In this research, we programmed health insurance and loss‐of‐care modules into a synthetic health system simulator (Synthea) to simulate and analyze the impact of health insurance on breast cancer survival rates. Our goal was for our health insurance and loss‐of‐care implementations to be realistic and reflective of the real world, in which we were successful.     

保险资产管理行业的发展与改革

在“2016中国金融论坛暨保险业如何抓住机遇适应新常态？”分论坛上,中国保险资产管理业协会执行副会长兼秘书长曹德云发表了演讲,他认为：“中国的资本市场最大的结构性问题在于个人散户占比较高,而机构的投资占比只约为40%,这是中国资本市场的一个软肋。保险资金作为长期、大规模的资金如果能够进入到市场,对改善资本市场结构,提高资本市场的稳定性具有很重要的意义。”他这样说。     

新《保险法》对保险公司的影响

我国《保险法》的最新修订具有里程碑式的意义,对保险公司的组织架构、制度建设、运营行为都将产生深远的影响。从保险公司的角度来看,新《保险法》的实施可谓机遇与挑战并存,如果能够妥善地根据新《保险法》及时对自身作出适当的调整,那么保险公司的核心竞争力无疑会提升,这对整个保险行业的健康持续发展也是十分有利的。     

要关注保险行业的边缘化倾向

从1980年全面恢复国内保险业务以来,保险业务收入以年均30%的增幅高速增长。但由于保险行业长期以来过度关注保险业务收入数据,在发展过程中忽略了保险业务收入的内涵,导致保险业务收入高速增长的同时,保险行业对于社会应当承担的经济补偿和民生保障的职能在弱化,每逢有大灾大难,本应有突出表现的保险业却经常集体失语,保险行业出现边缘化的倾向,如,保险业过度关注保险业务增长、非寿险业务发展缓慢、财产保险业务的滞后等。     

Assessing the solvency of the insurance industry

The article attempts to assess the ability of the insurance industry to discharge its liabilities and to settle in full the claims against it without resorting to any of the limited safety nets that exist. The article examines several indicators of the health of the industry including: (1) industry profitability, (2) the risk level of assets held, (3) the industry's capital cushion, (4) the duration match between assets and liabilities, and (5) possible agency problems induced by the operation of a safety net. In addition, other risks are considered including the escalating costs of settling claims and pressures to make insurance rates more affordable. The article concludes with a cautiously optimistic appraisal. The industry, with a few notable exceptions, is somewhat stronger than banking intermediaries. Concerns over a generalized solvency problem, such as that faced by the savings industry, appear misplaced.This research was supported by the John M. Olin Program for the Study of Economic Organization and Public Policy at Princeton University.