中美贸易冲突的贸易后果 ——基于中美贸易细分产品数据的研究

基于双重差分模型,依据2014-2019年的中美贸易细分产品月度数据,考量中美贸易冲突对中美两国贸易的影响.结果显示:贸易冲突对中国从美国进口负向影响显著,且在样本期内具有平稳性与持续性;对中国对美出口负向效应显著,且在样本期内呈"倒U型"趋势.事件前期和中期,在"抢出口"效应作用下,贸易冲突对中国对美出口具有短期促进作用;事件后期,对中国对美出口的破坏影响显现.细分产品层面,贸易冲突对中国从美国资本品和消费品的进口负向影响显著,表明国家和个体层面都对贸易有所限制.出口方面,中国消费品出口所受的负向影响较强.同时,中美贸易冲突对于第三国贸易转移效应显著.     

中美贸易对美国就业影响的重新评价 ——基于全球价值链视角

基于全球价值链视角,利用出口增加值分解,运用WIOD数据库2000-2014年间投入产出数据和SEA就业数据,重新度量中美贸易对美国就业的带动和挤出效应。结果表明：美国直接出口中国所带动的本土制造业就业人数要高于服务业人数;就业挤出中,中国出口美国主要挤出的是美国知识密集型制造业,其他类型的行业就业挤出相对较少;中美贸易对美国就业的整体效应为正值,中美贸易对美国制造业和总就业具有一定的促进作用。     

Dividend policy: A selective review of results from around the world

In a “perfect” market, Miller and Modigliani's celebrated dividend irrelevance argument holds, whereby a dividend payment or omission is identical in impact to changes in a firm's share structure. Consequently, the dividend payment itself is irrelevant to valuation; what matters is the firm's free cash flow. In the real world, the institutional and financial structure of markets matters. In the United States, explanations of actual dividend policy usually stress transaction costs, information costs engendering signaling and agency costs, taxes, and the legal system. Under the U.S. financial system many of these factors tend to be similar across firms, so that it can be difficult to disentangle their effects. However, it is to be expected that in a financial system organized differently results from the United States may not hold, so we may be able to identify the importance of factors largely suppressed in the United States. In this selective review we look at results from both comparative and international studies of dividend policy. As might be expected, we find that institutional structure—including a country's financial system, institutions, culture, and industrial organization—is important in determining dividend policy.     

汇率波动与国际收支及宏观经济关系研究

在当前中美贸易摩擦的国际新形势和人民币汇率双向波动增强背景下,研究并评估汇率波动与国际收支平衡、跨境资金流动之间的相互关系及其对国内宏观经济的影响具有重要意义。本文选择日本、韩国、巴西、中国作为研究样本,通过实证研究分析各国货币汇率波动与国际收支状况、跨境资金流动之间的相互联系,并以此评估汇率波动对我国实体经济变量的影响,为我国继续完善汇率市场化改革与跨境资金宏观审慎管理提出政策建议。     

FINANCIAL PLANNING AND CONTROL FOR COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN CHINA

Financial planning and control systems in China are discussed. The effectiveness of the pre-1979 system is evaluated and compared to the system instituted in 1979 under China's modernization drive. The implications of these changes for China and for the United States are discussed.     

China's capital flight: Pre- and post-crisis experiences

We study China's illicit capital flow and document a change in its pattern. Specifically, we observe that China's capital flight, especially the one measured by trade misinvoicing, exhibits a weakened response in the post-2007 period to the covered interest disparity, which is a theoretical determinant of capital flight. Further analyses indicate that the post-2007 behavior is influenced by quantitative easing and other factors including exchange rate variability, capital control policy and trade frictions. Our study confirms that China's capital flight pattern and its determinants are affected by the crisis event. Further, both the canonical and additional explanatory variables have different effects on different measures of capital flight. These results highlight the challenges of managing China's capital flight, which requires information on the period and the type of capital flight that the policy authorities would like to target.     

中国与"一带一路"沿线国家出口贸易研究——基于汇率变动、外贸依存度的视角

引入汇率变动引力模型,采用“一带一路”沿线64个国家2002-2015年面板数据,研究汇率变动和外贸依存度对出口贸易的影响,结果显示：汇率变动不是影响中国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口贸易的最重要因素,人民币升值促进了出口贸易,原因在于中国“一带一路”沿线国家的汇率变动不是很大;外贸依存度对出口贸易影响显著且存在双重门槛效应,外贸依存度越小,出口潜力越大;两国之间距离对出口贸易有显著负向影响;缔结自由贸易协定对出口贸易的影响尚未显现。因此,我国应保持人民币汇率基本稳定,以外贸依存度大小分类实施不同贸易政策,继续推进“一带一路”国家基础设施建设,并细化自由贸易协定。     

美联储停止缩表的原因、影响及中国对策

近期美联储停止缩表引起广泛关注。美联储停止缩表主要有以下几个原因：一是货币需求大幅上升,二是美联储控制短期利率的能力出现下降,三是美国经济前景存在不确定性。此外,美联储停止缩表还有助于继续发挥财政作用、改善货币政策传导效率、降低污名效应、降低私人部门安全资产的供应以及降低对美联储信用风险和银行清算风险。美联储停止缩表对美国和中国都会产生十分广泛的影响。对美国的影响主要有：资产价格将获得支撑、投资可能出现过热、通胀可能出现阶段性上升、金融风险可能加大、美联储独立性可能受到影响、可能加剧收益率曲线倒挂;对中国的影响主要有：人民币汇率压力有望缓解、资产价格可能上升、短期资本流入可能增多。因此,中国货币政策应保持定力,密切关注国际资本流动趋势的变化,防范资产价格暴涨风险,同时,应加强人民币汇率风险管理。     

Was Deng Xiaoping Right? An Overview of China's Equity Markets

In the western world, stock markets arose from the search by privately owned companies for capital to build their businesses. Over time, the markets became places where ownership interests and even entire companies were bought and sold. In China, the complete opposite has happened. The markets arose out of the need for capital by bankrupt state‐owned enterprises operating in an economy with no history of private property. Deng Xiaoping, China's last emperor, gave the green light for the stock market experiment in early 1992 more with the hope of encouraging reform and efficiency than from any conviction that stock markets were the next sure thing. Now, after more than 20 years of experimentation with domestic and international listings, it appears evident that stock markets whose primary function is to trade minority interests in government‐controlled companies have not achieved the goal of improving enterprise performance, as China's leaders originally hoped. Instead, the combination of state monopolies with Wall Street expertise and international capital has led to the creation of national companies that represent little more than the incorporation of China's old Soviet‐style industrial ministries. As for the markets, the government's determination to prevent real privatization has produced separate classes of shares that are defined almost entirely by one thing: the shareholder's relationship to the government. And with all aspects of stock market activity regulated, managed, and owned by various state agencies, it is not surprising that non‐state investors have become motivated more by speculative opportunities than by investment fundamentals. But a quarter of a century is a short time in any country's development and, for all their shortcomings, the markets in mainland China and Hong Kong have played a significant role raising capital for China. It may be too early, perhaps, to suggest that China's equity markets have failed to accomplish what they were intended to do.     

试论建设“金融特区”应对中美经贸摩擦 ——基于粤港澳大湾区的案例研究

当前,中美经贸摩擦呈现出“长期化”的迹象。中美经贸摩擦与战略博弈已经进入深水区,并可能向金融领域蔓延。经贸摩擦对中国的金融市场与投资者预期的影响日益明显。在此背景下,作为中国金融开放前沿与国家重大发展战略,推进粤港澳大湾区的金融市场建设与融合发展,加速金融开放的进程与各项金融政策的落实,已非常紧迫。本文在对粤港澳大湾区开展深入调研的基础上,提出应尽快在粤港澳大湾区打造“金融特区”,进一步加大金融业的开放力度,倒逼国内金融机构不断提升国际竞争能力和水平,全面提升我国国际金融话语权,建设金融强国。     

基于博弈理论对中美汇率政策的解析

在中美两国经济不断交融发展的同时,贸易摩擦日益严重。自2005年7月以来人民币对美元汇率已升值近17%,但对美贸易顺差仍旧持续。从博弈理论视角对中美两国的汇率政策研究分析,得出三点结论:单纯运用汇率工具调节两国的贸易,会形成双方谈判力量的"掠夺性"均衡;汇率与贸易政策冲突,贸易政策会将汇率政策变动产生的效应抵消;非经济因素使中美汇率博弈形成暂时均衡,但不稳定。     

China as the Workshop of the World: Measuring the Role of Foreign Direct Investment Through Manufacturing Sectors and Products

In this paper, we focus on the role of China's manufacturing in the international division of labor from the perspective of foreign direct investment (FDI). We first discuss the contribution made by China's manufacturing sector to capital accumulation, manifested internally by domestic oversaving and externally by China's trade surplus. China's output under various conditions is then measured, and the role of FDI in different manufacturing industries, differentiated according to technological type, is examined. Deconstructing the trade balance and highlighting the role of processing, the analysis provides details on the role of FDI in China's merchandise trade. The analysis also shows that China's distorted research and development expenditure in various manufacturing industries is related to lack of innovation capacity in the high-technology industries dominated by FDI.     

中国进口农产品质量测算——基于2000-2013年的数据分析

基于2000~2013年中国海关贸易数据库数据,采用产品层面回归反推方法对中国进口农产品质量进行测算,并从贸易方式、所有制、HS编码、进口（来源）国等方面分析中国进口农产品贸易的质量结构特点。研究发现：中国进口农产品质量在2000-2013年总体呈上升趋势,2010-2012年呈现出明显的倒“U”型变化;中国进口农产品质量呈上升趋势这一结论对于不同贸易方式、不同所有制、不同编码农产品、不同进口（来源）国都基本成立。     

中国零部件贸易比较优势与技术含量：结构与演变研究

基于中国5位数分类349种零部件产品的比较优势与技术含量指数,考量中国零部件产品出口与技术结构的演化特征,结果显示:中国零部件产品的比较优势与出口技术含量均有所提高,其中,高技术含量零部件产品出口竞争力提升尤为显著。结论表明,中国零部件贸易正在经历从低技术含量零部件产品出口到高技术含量零部件产品出口的出口转化阶段。中国零部件的出口结构仍然存在很大的改进空间。     

中国与TPP国家关税减让的宏观经济效应：基于GTAP模型的分析

采用GTAP模型,模拟分析中国与TPP国家关税减让合作的宏观经济效应.结果显示:中国与TPP国家双边关税减让会强化双边的贸易联系,其中,制造业双边关税壁垒的取消比农业双边关税壁垒取消对中国及TPP国家的对外贸易影响更大;双边关税减让将提升双边的福利水平,同时也会使中国与TPP国家的贸易不平衡进一步扩大.结果表明,考虑到单边关税减让将损害减让国福利水平,采用双边关税减让以平衡双方利益是一个可行的合作途径.     

中国自贸试验区政策试点对地区外商直接投资的影响 ——基于双重差分法的验证

基于2007-2017年中国城市面板数据,利用双重差分法(DID)研究中国自贸试验区政策试点对地区外商直接投资(FDI)的影响,并对多期DID的适用性和稳健性进行检验.结果显示:自贸试验区的设立能够显著地促进地区FDI的增长,并对地区FDI增长的促进作用随着城市等级的升高呈现出"边际效应递减"的规律;相比于沿海试点城市,自贸区政策对地区FDI增长的促进作用在内陆试点城市更明显.     

美国非预期货币政策会影响我国的利率期限结构吗?

本文通过Bloomberg与Wind相关日频数据,利用主成分分析的方法,提取了我国银行间市场与国债债券市场的利率期限结构截距因子、斜率因子与曲率因子。在此基础上,该文研究了美国非预期货币政策冲击对我国利率期限结构的外溢作用。研究结果表明,该外溢作用显著存在,它扭曲了我国银行间市场与债券市场的利率期限结构,会导致我国利率期限结构“倒挂”,提高短期利率水平,压低长期利率水平,进而加剧我国金融市场中系统性风险集聚。     

Informational linkage and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets: Evidence from the US–China trade dispute

This study examines the effects of the US–China trade dispute on the informational linkages and price discovery between China's futures and spot markets. Using the daily price data of four assets representing the real and financial sectors in China during 2016–2019, empirical findings suggest that the futures–spot correlations for the stock index, copper, and corn markets have increased significantly during the trade dispute. In contrast, sharp declines in the dynamic correlations between gold futures and spot markets, as gold is a safe haven asset, are observed during the event window. During uncertainty disturbance (i.e., the trade dispute), the futures–spot cointegrated relationships in the gold and corn markets are found to adjust more quickly and efficiently, whereas the correction speeds of the market deviations for the stock index and copper market are moderately slower. With the intensive integration of market expectations with uncertainty shocks, the economic shocks of trade disputes tend to remarkably improve the pricing efficiency of China's futures markets, except for the gold futures market. China's spot markets, however, seem to be more sensitive to the noise trades and information disturbances arising from the trade dispute.     

政府和社会资本合作（PPP）立法的美国镜鉴与启示

尽管我国与美国的体制、国情社情、PPP发展情况不尽相同，但美国PPP立法的经验与教训对我国的PPP立法具有重要启示作用。PPP在美国是旧现象、新概念，存在“横向”“纵向”之分。联邦层面至今没有统一的PPP法律，相关立法散见联邦立法与州立法中，集中在交通运输领域，主要是授权立法，整体上呈现多层级、分散式的特征。美国现行PPP法律引发合同条款约束政府公共行为、为加快项目进程不惜削弱环境保护、PPP采购缺乏竞争性等争议，由此带来的经验启示包括：加强顶层设计、加大金融支持力度、明确政府间财政关系等。     

政治冲突与国际贸易:韩国萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响分析

运用双重差分模型,依据中韩两国产品贸易数据,考量萨德事件对中韩贸易的影响。结果表明：萨德事件引发的中国消费者抵制运动使得韩国向中国的出口损失幅度达到近30%,受影响的产品主要集中在替代性较高的日常生活消费品领域,韩国对华电子产品贸易并未受到萨德事件冲突的影响,侧面说明了中国官方表现出相对理性与克制的态度,韩国向中国出口的后果更多地来自民间自发性消费抵制;冲突带来的进口替代效应使得第三方出口国如日本、美国、德国等国家从萨德事件中受益,这些国家扩大了对华出口,但是这种进口替代效应具有短期性,随着时间的推延逐渐消失。