经济刺激计划与农村消费启动——基于我国农村居民收入分解的实证分析

文章在对我国农村居民收入构成进行分解的基础上,利用协整等计量工具时影响我国农村居民消费的各种因素进行了量化分析,并由此对照我国政府为应对世界经济危机而出台的一揽子经济刺激计划,分析经济刺激计划中各项具体政策措施在促进农村消费方面的作用.实证分析和政策分析的结果表明:(1)当前对农村居民消费具有显著影响的因素主要是农村居民经营性收入、工资性收入及国家财政农村救济费支出;(2)已出台的经济刺激计划,既有消费价格补贴等短期措施,也有旨在提高农村居民收入、完善农村社会保障、优化农村消费环境的长期性政策,时于促进农村消费具有很强的针对性;(3)未来促进农村居民消费仍需继续着眼于各种长期性政策.国家在加大财政支农力度时,应注重提高农林水事业费以外的支农支出比重;(4)县域经济是启动农村消费的关键.未来的政策着力点可以考虑将启动农村消费与发展县域经济、推动城乡一体化发展相结合.     

老龄化如何影响我国家庭消费支出——来自中国综合社会调查的证据

基于中国综合社会调查（CGSS)的数据，本文谨慎定义老龄家庭后实证检验了老龄化对我国家庭消费支出的影响。研究发现，老龄化将使家庭消费支出显著下降并对大多数消费分项支出产生较大负面影响，同时会大幅提升家庭医疗服务支出；收入是老龄化影响家庭消费的重要中间变量。基于城乡分类子样本研究发现，乡村家庭受老龄化冲击异常严重，乡村医疗服务供给存在较大缺口。基于分层的城镇子样本回归发现，老龄化对城镇家庭消费的冲击集中体现在较低分位家庭。     

数字普惠金融与中国农村家庭财富差距

促进农民增收致富和推动乡村振兴是二十大关注的重要问题。本文使用中国家庭金融调查数据和数字普惠金融指数,用分位回归方法分析了数字普惠金融对中国农村家庭财富差距的影响。结果发现：数字普惠金融可以显著提高农村家庭财富,有助于缩小家庭财富差距。随着家庭财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对于农村不同财富家庭总资产的正向影响由大到小。由于不同财富家庭的负债结构差异较大,随着财富由低到高,数字普惠金融对家庭净资产的影响则由小到大。夏普里值分解结果表明,数字普惠金融对农村家庭财富差距的贡献度近三分之一。异质性分析表明,数字普惠金融发展对于低收入家庭和低教育水平家庭财富的正向作用更强,进一步证明了上述结论。机制分析表明,数字普惠金融能显著促进农村家庭特别是低财富家庭的创业行为,而创业对于最低财富组家庭资产的正向刺激作用最强;受流动性约束可能性越大的低财富家庭,越能从数字普惠金融的发展中获益。因而进一步证实数字普惠金融可以缩小农村家庭财富差距。本文的研究说明,发展数字普惠金融对于探索农民致富路径和推进乡村振兴有积极作用。     

Rural development in the digital age: Does information and communication technology adoption contribute to credit access and income growth in rural China?

Information and communication technology (ICT) plays an important role in rural livelihoods and household well-being. Therefore, this study examines the impact of ICT adoption on farmers' decisions to access credit and the joint effects of ICT adoption and access to credit on household income using 2016 China Labour-force Dynamics Survey data. Both recursive bivariate probit model and a selectivity-corrected ordinary least square regression model are employed for the analysis. The results show that ICT adoption increases the probability of access to credit by 12.8% in rural China and empowers rural women and farm households in relatively less-developed regions to access credit. ICT adoption and access to credit affect household income differently. ICT adoption significantly increases household income, while access to credit significantly reduces it, primarily because farmers do not use the acquired credit to invest in income-generating farm and off-farm business activities. ICT adoption has the largest positive impact on household income at the highest 90th quantile. Our findings suggest that improving rural ICT infrastructure to enhance farmers' ICT adoption and developing ICT-based financial products to enable households to access sufficient funds can improve rural household welfare.     

Internet use and consumption diversity: Evidence from rural China

The Internet is integral to modern living. While the Internet is ubiquitous in China's urban areas, its uptake is still lagging in the country's rural regions—the development potential of the Internet remains untapped, and despite China's steep economic growth during the 21st century, the living standards in its rural regions remain low. The Internet can accelerate rural development in China. This study is focused on analyzing whether and to what extent Internet use affects consumption diversity, an indicator of the quality of life, in rural China. To this end, we employ the instrumental-variable-based two-stage endogenous treatment regression model to analyze the 2018 China Family Panel Studies survey data. The modeling approach allows us to account for the endogeneity of Internet use. The results show that consumption diversity is positively associated with Internet use. Furthermore, it rises with household income, household size, and wealth. Whether the Internet is accessed via smartphones or computers has no bearing on household consumption diversity. We also find that education, household income, and wealth increase one's predicted probability of using the Internet. The results also point to regional differences in consumption diversity and the likelihood of using the Internet.     

我国县域农户家庭劳动力利用的实证分析——以山东省梁山县为例

本文对我国县域农户家庭劳动力利用的情况进行了分析,并对劳动力利用的影响因素进行了模型估计。研究结果表明:当前我国农村还存在20%～30%的富余劳动力需要转移;农户在进行家庭内部分工时基于家庭效益最大化考虑;农户家庭收入来源和镇域经济发展对县域农户家庭劳动力利用有显著影响,不同的家庭劳动力特征对农户家庭就业决策的影响存在一定差异,政策性补贴对农户家庭就业决策的影响不大。在此基础上,本文提出若干政策建议。     

什么导致了中国城镇家庭的消费不平等

以消费不平等作为反映经济不平等的重要指标,本文系统研究了中国城镇家庭消费不平等的成因。采用中国跨省区城镇家庭调查数据,基于再中心化影响函数的实证分析结果显示：我国城镇家庭的收入与净资产的不平等是导致其消费不平等的重要原因。此外,户主的性别、婚姻状况、健康状况、宗教信仰以及家庭人口结构等因素也对城镇家庭消费不平等有着不同程度的显著影响。     

1989-2004年城乡家庭收入差异:一个多层固定效果模型分析

利用1989-2004年"中国健康与营养调查"数据,运用固定效果模型和多层生长曲线模型,分析了城乡家庭人均年收入的趋势、现状和特点,探讨了城乡家庭收入差异产生的原因。虽然在这16年间,城、乡家庭人均收入都有了很大的提高,但二者之间的差距在不断上升;在其他条件相同的情况下,城市家庭的人均收入明显超过郊区、集镇和乡村家庭的人均收入;家庭人均收入受地域、社区和家庭等多层次因素的制约。解决城乡之间家庭收入差距的出路包括积极扩大非农就业,加快城镇化步伐,改善社区的就业条件,加大农村地区的教育回报率。     

中国西部地区农户收入增长影响因素及其关系——以云南省为例

为获得影响当前农民收入的主要影响因素,对云南省4200家农户进行了调查,根据所获得的3432份有效问卷数据,结合统计年鉴相关数据和云南省人口普查数据,采用多元统计方法,对影响农民收入的主要因素进行了分析。研究表明:对农民人均纯收入影响最大的是其他乡村从业人员比例,其次是乡村从业人员占农村人口的比例,再次是6岁以上人口受教育年限和农业人口比例。最后,根据调查结果提出相关的政策建议。     

Does urbanization reduce rural poverty? Evidence from Vietnam

This paper uses data from household surveys to contribute to the urbanization-poverty nexus literature by assessing the effect of urbanization on income, expenditure, and poverty in rural households in Vietnam. We find that the urbanization process stimulates the transition from farm to non-farm activities in rural areas. More specifically, urbanization tends to reduce farm income and increase wages and non-farm income in rural households. This suggests that total income and consumption expenditure of rural households are more likely to increase with urbanization. Finally, we find also that urbanization helps decrease the expenditure poverty rate of rural households, albeit by a small magnitude.     

Is there a retirement consumption puzzle in Japan? Evidence from a household panel dataset spanning several years

Using a unique long-run panel of Japanese households, this paper examines the changes in consumption at retirement (‘the retirement-consumption puzzle’). Our analysis shows that households’ expenditure does decline after the retirement of the household head and that changes in household composition at retirement cannot fully account for this decline. Changes in life-style/preferences after retirement also do not appear to explain a salient feature of the expenditure decline, namely, the strong correlation between the magnitudes of the expenditure decline and the income decline upon retirement. On the other hand, our finding that the expenditure decline is larger for households with smaller savings and/or that experienced a large unexpected income decline is broadly consistent with the standard LC/PIH augmented with unexpected shocks, while it does not rule out the possibility that there is a relatively small subset of households that are myopic and lack sufficient saving discipline.     

家庭异质性视角下城乡居民家庭碳排放研究——以陕西为例

为把握城乡居民各种口径碳排放的变动趋势,借鉴IPCC推荐方法及投入产出分析方法,分别测算2005—2017年陕西省居民家庭各种口径的碳排放量,发现陕西城镇家庭各口径碳排放量均高于农村家庭;为分析引起城乡居民家庭直接和间接碳排放总量变动的深层原因,借鉴对数平均迪氏指数分解(LMDI)模型,发现家庭人均收入、家庭户数效应、家庭规模效应、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、家庭消费率、家庭消费结构等表征家庭异质性的变量对城乡家庭直接及间接碳排放总量有不同程度的正向驱动或负向驱动效应,并根据研究结论对地方政府控制家庭碳排放量提出政策建议。     

Complementarity and substitutability between farm and nonfarm activities: Evidence from agricultural households in Tanzania

Increasing evidence shows that farm households in developing countries maintain a portfolio of income-generating activities. Concerns have been raised that household income diversification to include nonfarm activities will stifle farm works, and thus reduce agricultural productivity. On the contrary, some evidence of complementarity between the farm and nonfarm activities in rural areas has been found. This paper uses data from the fourth and the fifth waves of Tanzania's National Panel Surveys to examine whether there exists complementarity or substitutability between farm and nonfarm activities in rural Tanzania. The findings show that participation in off-farm work and nonfarm business activities has no clear relationship to the adoption and use of improved agricultural practices, namely, irrigation, fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides. Participation in off-farm work and nonfarm business activities does not also seem to directly influence agricultural investments, production, and productivity nor overall household income. These results suggest that the complementary and substitution effects of nonfarm activities offset each other in Tanzania, implying that proper policies are required to unleash the potential impact of nonfarm activities on agriculture.     

Remittances and Household Expenditures on Education in Ghana's Northern Region: Why Gender Matters

Studies of the impact of migrant remittances on receiving households assume that these households act as a unit in receiving remittances and making decisions about their use. Thus, many of these studies use the gender of the household head as a key control variable. This study questions this assumption, using original qualitative and quantitative data on rural–urban migration of women in Ghana to show that gendered social norms of household provisioning influence the intrahousehold flow of remittances. Regression results indicate that migrant women are more likely to send remittances to other women, creating female-centered networks of remittance flows even within male-headed households. The implications of this for intrahousehold resource allocation are explored through an analysis of the impact of the gender of the remitter and recipient on education expenditure. The results show that regardless of the gender of the household head, households in which women are the primary recipient of remittances spend more than twice as much on education as households in which men are the primary recipient.     

The impacts of social pension on rural household expenditure: evidence from China

In 2009, China began to implement a new social pension scheme in rural areas. We examine the impacts of this social pension on two main components of rural household expenditure, consumption and agricultural production investment. Our findings show that on average, rural households increase consumption by 1–3% and agricultural investment by as high as 6–9% in pilot counties. Further estimations reveal that the pension mainly affects the households with old-aged members and the poorer families, and that the saving rate hasn’t been changed by the pension, which support more the contingent income than the life-cycle hypothesis. We also find that among various types of expenditures, the most dramatic increases have occurred in food consumption and operational inputs on agricultural production.     

Socioeconomic Impacts of Public Forest Policies on Heterogeneous Agricultural Households

Nepal has a long history of returning public forests to local people as part of its community forestry programme. In principle the community forestry programme is designed to address both environmental quality and poverty alleviation. However, concern has been expressed that forest policies emphasise environmental conservation, and that this has a detrimental impact on the use of community forests in rural Nepal where households require access to public forest products to sustain livelihoods. To study the effect of government policies on forest use, an economic model of a typical small community of economically heterogeneous households in Nepal was developed. The model incorporates a link between private agriculture and public forest resources, and uses this link to assess the socioeconomic impacts of forest policies on the use of public forests. Socioeconomic impacts were measured in terms of household income, employment and income inequality. The results show that some forest policies have a negative economic impact, and the impacts are more serious than those reported by other studies. This study shows that existing forest policies reduce household income and employment, and widen income inequalities within communities, compared to alternative policies. Certain forest policies even constrain the poorest households?? ability to meet survival needs. The findings indicate that the socioeconomic impacts of public forest policies may be underestimated in developing countries unless household economic heterogeneity and forestry??s contribution to production are accounted for. The study also demonstrates that alternative policies for managing common property resources would reduce income inequalities in rural Nepalese communities and lift incomes and employment to a level where even the poorest households could meet their basic needs.     

农村居民点用地变化驱动机制——基于湖北省孝南区农户调查的研究

以地处江汉平原的孝南区为研究区域,利用对农户的问卷调查资料,采用回归分析方法,对农村居民点用地变化驱动机制进行研究。得到如下结论:①显著影响农户是否新辟地基建房的因素包括:家庭规模、家庭收入/信贷水平、对子女教育的支出、攀比心理等因素;②农户新辟地基建房面积的大小受到家庭规模、非农就业人口比例、家庭收入/信贷水平、对子女教育的支出、消费的攀比心理等因素的影响。     

The implications for households of environmental tax reform (ETR) in Europe

The paper discusses the distributional implications of environmental tax reform (ETR) for households, and presents new results from modelling the impacts of a major ETR for the European Union. The distributional effects arise from the new environmental taxes, any tax reductions made as part of the ETR, the wider macroeconomic impacts from the ETR, any special provisions in the ETR, and the environmental benefits from the ETR. The paper's literature review makes clear that while the impacts from taxes on the household use of energy are very often regressive, transport taxes tend not to be, although the impacts differ between urban and rural households. Moreover, the net distributional impact is often less regressive, or not at all, once the wider distributional effects are taken into account. Residual regressive effects can in principle be removed by further adjustments in the tax or benefits system. The modelling results suggest that an ETR in Europe will actually increase real incomes across the EU as a whole, and will not be generally regressive, although the results differ by country and for different socio-economic groups. The political acceptability of ETR may depend on the worst effects on these groups being mitigated in some way.     

收入不平等与家庭借贷行为*——家庭为追求社会地位而借贷的动机真的存在吗

本文利用中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)2011年度的调查数据,考察了收入不平等对家庭借贷行为的影响,并验证了家庭是否存在为追求社会地位而借贷的动机。研究表明：（1）收入不平等并不是影响家庭是否借贷的主要因素,但是对家庭的负债规模存在十分显著的抑制作用;（2）收入不平等的扩大并不会促使中低收入家庭寻求借贷或提升家庭负债规模,我国家庭并不存在为了追求更高的社会地位而进行借贷的动机;（3）收入不平等的扩大有利于高收入家庭获得更多的正规金融借贷,中低收入家庭则会较多地依赖于非正规金融借贷;（4）户主的人口统计学特征、家庭经济特征以及家庭所处地区特征均是影响家庭借贷行为的重要因素,在正规金融和非正规金融市场上,影响家庭借贷行为的因素存在较明显的差异。     

Non-farm Income and Consumption Expenditures in Rural Bangladesh: Empirical Evidence from Multilevel Regression Modelling

This study examines the effects of non-farm income on household consumption expenditures in rural Bangladesh. A two-stage endogenous treatment effect model is built on data from a nationally representative Household Income Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2010 to control selection bias. The HIES follows a hierarchical data structure because the survey is based on two-stage stratified sampling. A multilevel mixed-effects linear regression model is used to capture the unobserved heterogeneity between clusters (PSUs) along with revealing important factors. Results reveal that non-farm income has a significant positive effect on household’s consumption expenditures and non-farm income recipient households spend about 29% more than their counterparts. In addition, higher level of per capita income, education, smaller family size and lower dependency ratio are found to be more effective in increasing consumption expenditures of rural households. Significant cluster-level variations are observed in the analyses. This study recommends that non-farm income generating activities should be encouraged among rural households as this would raise their consumption expenditures and hence, improve welfare and living standards among them.